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Tuesday, March 07, 2006

New TX Primary Results Thread

Posted by DavidNYC

Note: All times are local (Central) time.

[9:02 p.m.] The Dallas Morning News is declaring Chris Bell the victor in TX-Gov. At the moment, Tom DeLay has 64% of the vote in TX-22, while Van Taylor has 55% in TX-17.

[9:05 p.m.] DMN also seems to have faster results than the TX SoS. Here's the situation in TX-28:

Rodriguez: 7,754 (64.72%)
Cuellar: 3,351 (27.97%)
Morales: 875 (7.30%)

Precincts Reporting: 95
Total Precincts: 276

[9:16 p.m.]

Rodriguez: 7,928 (64.24%)
Cuellar: 3,509 (28.43%)
Morales: 904 (7.33%)

Precincts Reporting: 112
Total Precincts: 276

[9:23 p.m.] Well, well, well. Looks like DMN got a bit ahead of itself. They are now claiming they have results from just 66 precincts (not 112, as stated earlier). Meanwhile, the SoS site is at 98 precincts.

[9:32 p.m.] (Tracy) Ciro just walked in to a load round of applause. The crowd is chanting his name as we continue to wait for the rest of the returns. There are loads of cameras and it is standing room only in what is a very large headquarters. SOS is reporting 35.14% in - still no word from Webb County.

[9:34 p.m.] Okay, this is getting a bit nutty. This SoS page (for TX-28 only) reports 128 precincts. However, this page (which lists all Dem races) says 143 precincts have come in. Which to believe? The latter page lists the current totals as follows:

Rodriguez: 11,269 (56.40%)
Cuellar: 7,304 (36.55%)
Morales: 1,408 (7.05%)

[9:40 p.m.] (Tracy) News out of Webb County continues to be confusing. There doesn't seem to be any word on when results will be coming through as technical difficulties persist.

[9:43 p.m.] The individual race page caught up and both now report 143 precincts. But man, that string of zeros after Webb County's name looks awfully, awfully... out of place. I'm reminded of the OH-02 special election, when Jean Schmidt's home region reported last, too. Remember this?

Schmidt led by less than 1 percent with 88 percent of the precincts in. But she must have felt secure in knowing that the only uncounted precincts were in Clermont County, her home.

Uh huh.

[9:43 p.m.] (Tracy) The Rodriguez campaign has a team headed down to Webb County including campaign counsel and representatives. While this is happening Ciro is addressing the hundreds of supporters who have gathered at our headquarters on the South Side of San Antonio. A supporter just called in as well and asked if the banks in Laredo were closed.

Posted at 10:02 PM in 2006 Elections, Texas | Technorati

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Comments

Does anyone know the # of votes cast in '04 in the primary? Or know roughly what we're guessing a votes to win number is?

Posted by: Left in the West at March 7, 2006 10:15 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The 2004 numbers are on the front page of dkos

Posted by: Bob Brigham at March 7, 2006 10:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Does not look good with Webb still to come, reminds me of last fall and the California ballot iniatives.

Posted by: JJ at March 7, 2006 10:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

OK, so we're talking 25k votes to win, basically?

Posted by: Left in the West at March 7, 2006 10:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

well according to frontpage of dkos, looks to be only 35k turnout this time which means 18k to win

Posted by: yomoma2424 at March 7, 2006 10:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

does anyone know how the turnout was in webb? or do we know nothing?

Posted by: danny at March 7, 2006 10:30 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

That string of zeros in Webb looks incredibly fishy. At this point I'd put my money on Cuellar winning by fraud.

Posted by: John Emerson at March 7, 2006 10:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The Frio results on the Texas SOS site are disturbing.

Posted by: JJ at March 7, 2006 10:45 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Comparing the current votes by county with the 2004 results, Rodriguez is currently underperforming in every single county. By 6%-35% over 2004 figures.

Even worse, Cuellar is overperforming in every county except Hays.

At this rate, Cuellar is likely to get 55% of the vote.

Posted by: guachi at March 7, 2006 10:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Thanks for the updates...this is exciting. I'm keeping an eye on the returns from San Diego, CA. Maybe someday I'll feel good enough about Texas to come home!

Posted by: TexasEx at March 7, 2006 10:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

guachi - it is kinda tough to do a comparison to 2004 since we don't know which precincts have reported and how they performed in 2004. I don't think it is safe to assume that the vote % will be the same in each precinct of a county.

That being said, Frio county has finished their counting and Rodriguez went from +300 in 2004 to -450 this year. Hopefully Webb county wont be the 80/20 split from 2 years ago. If it is, I think Cueller has this wrapped up.

Posted by: MattR at March 7, 2006 11:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I have a feeling that the dust won't settle on this one 'til the morning.

And that there may be legal action.

Just a wiiiild guess.

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at March 7, 2006 11:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

take a look at this....look at the bottom. The chief deputy, Roxanne Martinez, is seen programming an electronic voting machine. Someone from the Ciro campaign should talk to her.

Posted by: hufferwuffer at March 7, 2006 11:06 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

True, but Rodriguez is doing worse in every single county. I just don't believe that the only precincts reporting are the pro-Cuellar ones.

I doubt Rodriguez will even hit 40% when it is all over. I'm guessing, maybe, 55% 38% 7%.

Posted by: guachi at March 7, 2006 11:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

oops, forgot the link.

http://airwolf.lmtonline.com/news/pagea1.pdf

Posted by: hufferwuffer at March 7, 2006 11:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment