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Tuesday, March 07, 2006

Third TX Primary Results Open Thread

Posted by DavidNYC

Note: All times are local (Central) time.

[10:50 p.m.] Webb County's early voting results just came in (ie, not ballots cast today). They put Cuelllar into the lead for the first time tonight, 16,705 to 15,408.

[11:19 p.m.] (Tracy) We are still waiting here at the office for final totals.

[11:32 p.m.] An earlier comment of mine got over-written in the shuffle. I think it'll be a while before we get any more results in. But at this point, unfortunately, I don't see how Ciro can pull this one out. The bottom line is that, as I've often said, it's just damn hard to beat an incumbent.

[12:05 a.m.] (Tracy)

From Ciro to the netroots:

"As far as I am concerned we are in a run-off. We will be picking up our signs from the polls and re-using them in thirty days. Until we know exactly what happened today in Webb County, this race is not over.

"I wouldn't be here if I hadn't gotten the support of the online community. It's been overwhelming to see how people can make a difference, and make things happen by coming together, even if it an hour of blockwalking, a few phone calls or $20 and $40 dollars at a time. We must have the final word in who our leadership will be, not the special interests, and we must keep up this fight. I want to think the thousands who have given their time and resources to push this campaign forward.

"Thank you from the bottom of my heart for each and every kind word, dollar bill and one cent."

[12:09 p.m.] Very gracious words from Ciro. It's actually an hour later where I am on the East Coast right now, so I'm going to turn in. You're in Tracy's good hands for the rest of the night. (Thanks, Tracy!)

[12:30 a.m.]: In 2004 Webb results didn't come in until the next day. I am headed out of the office now and will check in later.

Posted at 11:58 PM in 2006 Elections, Texas | Technorati

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Comments

Hate to say it but i think this thing is over. Cuellar's incumbent advantage just played well for him. If Cuellar was running in Ciro's old district that we would have won but Cuellar had plently of time to go around the District and get support. Wonder how many Republicans voted in the Primary..

Posted by: D in FL. at March 8, 2006 12:07 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Our only prayer know is to hold Cuellar under 50% so there will still be a runoff, but with the Webb County vote still coming in, that's unlikely. Hope these Webb County "Democrats" are proud of themselves when Cuellar switches parties. After the snubbing from his own colleagues (especially in Texas colleagues), I bet Cuellar has an (R) next to his name by Thanksgiving.

Posted by: Mark at March 8, 2006 12:13 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

8145-789? When pigs fly.

Seriously, this insults everyone's intelligence. That kind of result happened in Saddam's Iraq, in the Soviet Union, not in any legitimate American election -- not even if Cuellar were running against Beelzebub himself.

The Bush machine isn't even trying to disguise its tracks anymore, is it?

One final thought: La Raza Unida, amigos!

Posted by: chris at March 8, 2006 12:16 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Other races to report on... TX-Sen primary is going into a runoff... TX-10 is also going into a Dem. runoff. LT-Gov Dem nomination is going into a runoff... Van Taylor won in TX-17 Chet Edwards may be in trouble.. Tom Delay also won if anybody missed that.

Posted by: D in FL. at March 8, 2006 12:18 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

It was a good fight. My best to all of you Texas. And thanks for the blog.

Posted by: TexasEx at March 8, 2006 12:21 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

When are the runoffs for the Texas races just curious..

Posted by: D in FL. at March 8, 2006 12:31 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

There is no party registration in Texas as it is in Georgia. Republicans can invade our primaries at will when they have nothing better to do. Cynthia McKinney in 2002 is the prime example of this. It is clear that with Mrs. Strayhorn abandoning the GOP primary, and Richard Raymond leaving this race, Ciro was screwed. Our people simply did not turnout in the numbers we needed to oust Cuellar. If control of the house of Representatives comes down to a seat or two, start praying because this bastard will switch parties for more power. The democrats will isolate and deny him influence in the house they control. Remember, he couldn't beat Henry Bonilla, so he decided to become morph into Bonilla while staying in our party.

Posted by: trevorwells at March 8, 2006 12:38 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Runoff is April 11.

I have read elsewhere that anyone who did not vote in the Republican primary can vote in the Democratic runoff and vice versa.

Posted by: MattR at March 8, 2006 12:43 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Runoffs are April 11th.

Posted by: DavidNYC at March 8, 2006 12:43 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MattR -
If the run-off were to happen, we would have to beg for all of Morales' votes to win because all the Republicans that voted in this primary (since they did not field a candidate) would pull for Cuellar.

Posted by: Matt O at March 8, 2006 01:09 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I think that anyone who did not vote in the primary is still allowed to vote in the runoff so Rodriguez has a shot if he can take from Morales and if he can improve turnout in his stronger areas.

And who knows what will happen in the next 30 days. People might change their mind or decide not to vote (or forget).

Posted by: MattR at March 8, 2006 01:13 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Now that so many counties are done, here's a look at the vote differentials (Ciro votes - Cuellar votes) in 2004 and 2006.

County    2004  Precincts  2006 so far
---------+-----+---------+------------------
Atascosa   +802   1/24      -248 - down 1050
Bexar     +8087  97/102    +7367 - down  720
Comal      +412   5/5        +62 - down  350
Frio       +294  11/11      -468 - down  762
Guadalupe  +986  39/39      +374 - down  612
Hays       +325  19/19      +338 - up     13
LaSalle    -229   1/7       -182 - up     47
McMullen    -24   6/6       -236 - down  212
Webb     -10463   0/30     -7356 - up   3107
Wilson    +1158  25/25      +305 - down  853
Zapata    -1501   1/8      -1168 - up    333

Posted by: Jonathan Dursi at March 8, 2006 01:14 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I was wrong we might pull this off! last i saw we had: with 85% reporting and Ciro seems to be gaining...

Cuellar: 47% (R)
Ciro: 45% (D)
Morales: 8% (D)

Posted by: D in FL. at March 8, 2006 01:33 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Another interesting Primary the first district. I don't see a DINO in this race but it isn't called yet. There must be some Shaw areas still left to count because they won't call it for Owen yet. Don't know anything about this race...

Roger Owen: 53% (D)
Duane Shaw 46% (D)

Posted by: D in FL. at March 8, 2006 01:42 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Re: D at 1:33am:

The problem is the 43 precincts remaining are in Zapata County (2004: 73% Cuellar), LaSalle County (57%) and Webb (84%), and mostly in Webb.

Ignoring the other two, and assuming the Webb votes come in at 84% Cuellar (like 04, which would be an *improvement* over the early results in 06 which were 87%), we can only afford another total 1944 votes in Webb county before Cuellar passes the 50% mark -- that would mean that 83% of Webb county voters voted early.

Posted by: Jonathan Dursi at March 8, 2006 01:51 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Owen v. Shaw... ugh, that's really unfortunate. Bottom line: Owen's a homophobe and pool builder and Shaw's former military.

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at March 8, 2006 02:14 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Here comes the storm folks the last of Ciro's base county Precients reported in so the Cuellar votes are going to storm in soon Cuellar needs about 1600 to get a victory i belive.

Posted by: D in FL. at March 8, 2006 02:27 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

In a similar vane as what Jonathan Dursi wrote above, as I look at the TX-28 primary results the thing that jumps out at me is Ciro's turnout drops in the non-Bexar counties this year compared to 2004. Drop below the fold for the analysis and why this race has become a case study for the need to fight everywhere.

Here are some comparisons for Ciro (using Kos's number from 2004 and the Sec of State numbers for the counties that have all precincts reporting):

Ciro Rodriguez

County________2004______2006_____Vote Change

Atascosa_____1,948___________901____-1,047
Bexar_______10,824________10,622______-202
Comal__________664___________141______-532
Frio_________2,014___________958____-1,056
Guadalupe____1,573___________927______-646
Hays___________725___________808_______+83
LaSalle________833___________325______-508
McMullen________47____________52________+5
Wilson_______2,534_________1,503____-1,031

Ciro's numbers dropped over 1000 votes in each of the south suburbs counties of San Antonio and dropped over 500 votes in the two northeast suburban counties of San Antonio and the middle county of LaSalle.

Cuellar's numbers are pretty stable or showing a slight decrease in the rest of the counties except for two small counties (big increases in McMullen and big decreases in Comal), LaSalle county where turnout for both dropped, and Bexar where strangely Cuellar picked up about 200 votes which have all there precincts reporting:

Henry Cuellar

County________2004_________2006_____Vote Change

Atascosa_____1,146_________1,149________+3
Bexar________2,737_________2,936______+199
Comal__________252____________79______-173
Frio_________1,720_________1,426______-294
Guadalupe______587___________55________-34
Hays___________400___________470_______+70
LaSalle______1,112___________661______-451
McMullen________71___________288______+217
Wilson_______1,376_________1,198______-178

As we have talked about the TX-28 race for the past couple weeks the focus has been on turnout in San Antonio's Bexar County (and it seemed to me, though those on the ground can correct me, to the exclusion of the smaller counties). If in fact the effort for turnout in the smaller counties was sacificed for a focus on Bexar that looks to be the strategic decision where this race ras lost. The drop in turnout for Ciro in the five suburban counties of San Antonio is enough to have pushed this into a runoff. This race looks like a perfect example of why we need to compete everywhere.

This is cross posted in a diary I just wrote at dalykos.

Posted by: Evan Coren at March 8, 2006 08:09 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

So the link I wrote to the cross-post above didn't seem to work. Here is the address:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/3/8/74044/69629

Posted by: Evan Coren at March 8, 2006 08:12 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment