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Monday, December 05, 2005

CA-48: NRCC Drops Half a Mil on the Race

Posted by DavidNYC

A reader writes in:

I just came across a little over two dozen independent expenditures that the NRCC has thrown into CA-48 over the last month. It's obvious they're scared shitless if you read the timeline on the report.

First off these guys are always thorough. They drop mail and then follow it up with phone calls and then poll. They drop an initial bit of mail and phone calls, and take a poll at the same time. The poll must have sucked since for the next two weeks they drop mail, and then follow it up with phone calls, do it again, and then again. They drop another poll and then follow up with more phone calls into the district, another poll and more phone calls and mail. I know that's obvious from the report, but I pulled together all the 2004 NRCC Independent Expenditure reports and this is what they did for races where they were in trouble (with a little TV thrown in, but the LA market is probably too rich for their blood).

[I]t's going to be an expensive 2006 if the NRCC has to drop a quarter of a million dollar in ever seat that Bush won with 58%. The expenditures show that the seat was, or is at least somewhat in play if they're so desperate to build up their candidate. All of the expenditures are in support of Campbell.

Those two dozen independent expenditures have totaled an astonishing quarter-million dollars in just the last month! (You can see the raw list here.) Bush won CA-48 by an 18-point margin. That's pretty nuts for the NRCC to be so scared. They may pull this one out thanks to favorable demographics & superior firepower - John Campbell's raised about 10 times what Steve Young has. But they simply can't afford to be this generous with every Bush +20 candidate next year.

P.S. To help Steve Young, go here.

Posted at 04:55 PM in 2005 Elections, California | Technorati

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Cross-posted from MyDD

I didn't want to let the cat out of the bag until the last minute. Last night Steve informed his volunteers that in appreciation for the way the Machinists have opened their homes to his GOTV effort, he will be paying every Machinist who is on strike against Boeing $100 day pay for the day.

Projections are for 500 warm bodies to be participating in Steve's GOTV effort today. I do not believe that includes phone bank volunteers. I don't know how 500 pairs of feet on the ground compares to other GOTV efforts, but it is a record for a Democratic election in Orange County. This is going to be a GOTV effort like nothing Orange County has ever seen.

Posted by: Gary Boatwright [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 6, 2005 08:35 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment