« House Race Comebacks | Main | Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? »

Sunday, December 04, 2005

CA-48: Why We Can Win

Posted by DavidNYC

Superribbie, House-race guru extraordinaire, offers this explanation of why we can win in CA-48:

This is one of 16 districts in California where Kerry did better than Gore (along with 1, 2, 6, 8, 9, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, 23, 29, 36, and 53), losing 59-41 rather than 60-40. It is a step in the right direction and may be a sign of increasing Dem strength.

The net partisan balance is 58.5-41.5 GOP. This makes it more Dem-friendly than the seats held by the following:

TX-17 (Edwards--31.8% Dem)
UT-02 (Matheson--32.8%)
MS-04 (Taylor--33.5%)
ND-AL (Pomeroy--37%)
MO-04 (Skelton--38.5%)
SD-AL (Herseth--39.8%)

Not a long list, but a win is certainly not out of the question.

Most of all, the presence of Minutemen head and American Independent Party candidate Jim Gilchrist makes this very doable. Gilchrist took about 15% in the open primary and is well-financed and running a real campaign. There is a likelihood that he builds on that and ends up with about 20%. As a right-wing hardline anti-immigration candidate, that 20% is coming straight from GOPer John Campbell's hide.

In fact, if the same breakdown of voters shows up on Tuesday as voted in 2004 and Gilchrist takes 20%, the likely result is Young 41, Campbell 39, Gilchrist 20. Remember the special election in the heavily Dem Nem Mexico 3d in 1997 (replacing then-newly appointed Energy Secretary Bill Richardson)? The Greens did what they always do in New Mexico and the final result was 43 R, 40 D, 17 G.

Finally, the California GOP is laboring with the twin albatrosses of Bush and Schwarzenegger around their necks. The dismal performance of the ballot initiatives last month speaks to the apathy and disenchantment of the GOP. Turnout stands to work in our favor.

I personally think it's all gonna come down to Gilchrist's showing. Young can sneak by if the two right-wingers cannibalize each other. And again, click here for a complete list of ways you can help out.

Posted at 04:28 PM in 2005 Elections, California | Technorati

Trackback Pings

TrackBack URL for this entry:

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference CA-48: Why We Can Win:

» Minutemen Nazis for Congress: What could go wrong with white nationalist border militia? from HongPong.com
There is a lot of weird shit on the Internet, and the last few days' dark December surfing have brought me to some mean and lowly places. I have not said much about the Minutemen militia / vigilante groups that have spontaneously mobilized on the sout... [Read More]

Tracked on December 6, 2005 03:09 AM


Howard Dean has recorded a robocall for Steve Young!!

To listen, visit: http://www.pdamerica.org/

The Progressive Democrats of America are full force behind Steve Young.

Right now their campaign could use: some extra $$s for their last-minute media push in these last two days, and volunteers for Virtual Phone Banking. These last two days are the critical points of the campaign. Join Howard Dean and help wake up OC Democrats and launch Steve Young into Congress. We CAN do it if we motivate enough Democrats.

Posted by: HellofaSandwich [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 5, 2005 04:10 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment