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Monday, May 29, 2006

AK-Gov: Knowles Is In!

Posted by DavidNYC

This is some great, great news: Former Gov. Tony Knowles declared today that he will indeed seek another term as governor. Knowles, a very popular figure in AK politics, previously served two terms in the governor's mansion but was term-limited out in 2002. However, Alaska's constitution permits a return to office if you skip a term, so Knowles is eligible to run again this year.

One sign of Knowles' strength is that one of the Dem gov candidates, Ethan Berkowitz, immediately said that he would drop out after Knowles made his announcement. The other announced candidate, Eric Croft, hasn't said anything yet, but hopefully he'll bow out as well. Either way, Knowles will have a straight shot to the Dem nomination.

On the other side, as RBH detailed a few days ago, current incumbent Frank Murkowski declared that he, too, will seek another term. This is also great news, given that Murkowski has a net approval rating of minus FIFTY. Murkowski is so unpopular that he's actually facing some stiff primary opposition from his own party. Whenever you can say that about an incumbent, you know it's bad news bears. Naturally, of course, we're rooting hard for Frank.

I should also add that a former Republican state rep, Andrew Halcro, is running as an independent. I've gotta believe that Halcro will draw more votes from the eventual GOP nominee than from Knowles. And Alaskans do seem to love independents - they gave Ross Perot some 28% in 1992, second only to Maine. I have no idea how much name rec this Halcro has, but he could stir things up.

Knowles doesn't appear to have a website up yet, but hopefully he'll launch one soon. (It may go up at the URL of his last campaign sight, presently down.) No matter who the GOP nominee is, Knowles instantly moves this seat into one of our top gubernatorial pick-up opportunities in 2006. Needless to say, I'm very excited about this race.

(Much thanks to RandyMI for alerting me to this story.)

Posted at 11:38 PM in 2006 Elections - State, Alaska | Technorati

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Comments

Little upset though the Democrats just lost there best candidate for Senator for 2008.

Posted by: D in FL. at May 30, 2006 12:29 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Wow. Democrats are going to make massive gains at the state level this year.

Let's count all the Governor's mansions that will likely see Democrats as the new occupants:

New York, fo' sho'
Arkansas
Massachusetts
Ohio
Alaska

Other possibilities: Maryland, Minnesota, Nevada, Colorado

Those are 9 decent-to-slam-dunk shots. Florida, South Carolina and Georgia could also be in play. The vulnerable spots are Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Oregon, and Maine, by my count... with Pennsylvania looking increasingly protected.

Posted by: James L. at May 30, 2006 12:31 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Now if we could get Case run for Gov. in Hawaii...

Posted by: D in FL. at May 30, 2006 12:34 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

James: Alabama could also be in play. Increasingly unlikely, I think, but still a chance, if Baxley wins the primary.

Posted by: DavidNYC at May 30, 2006 12:59 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Murkowski (R): 37.9
Berkowitz (D): 34.3
Halcro (I): 14.1

Murkowski (R): 37.00
Croft (D): 26.9
Halcro (I): 16.6

Murkowski(R): 29.2
Knowles (D): 50.9
Halcro (I): 15.0

Murkowski (R): 20.7
Someone Else: 59.9

Hellenthal & Association
June 2-9
MoE 5.45%

This poll was taken a while ago, but still it looks very promising for us. Knowles is starting out with over 50% of support. As usual there is a strong independent candidate who garners around 15% of the vote. The independent is Andrew Halcro and apparently he already has t.v. ads running. This race could be an easy pick up for us if the poll above is accurate.

Posted by: Craig at May 30, 2006 01:32 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

"Little upset though the Democrats just lost there best candidate for Senator for 2008."

Knowles could still run for Senator even while having a dayjob. Other recent examples of sitting governors who were Senate candidates include: Jeanne Shaheen (NH:2002), Tom Carper (DE:200), Mel Carnaha (MO:2000), and George Voinovich (1998). of course, all of these were in the last year of office, but that's not always the case (Ben Nelson still had two years left in his term when he ran in '96, for example). Knowles might still jump in if Stevens retires. And if Stevens doesn't retire, there's just no way I could see Knowles winning that race, anyway. So at least this way we can keep Knowles' career alive.

Unless he loses, which is unlikely.

Posted by: everrpa at May 30, 2006 01:36 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Don't forget Rhode Island also, a recent Rasmussen Reports poll showed Carcieri trailing his opponent 42-41.

Posted by: Craig at May 30, 2006 01:37 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

James, where are you seeing SC in play? I have not seen anything suggesting that.

My predictions:
Dems WILL Take
New York
Ohio
Alaska
Massachusetts
Arkansas
Colorado
Maryland

Dems might take (too close to call)
Minnesota
Rhode Island
Florida

Repubs might take (too close to call)
Michigan
Illinois
Oregon
Wisconsin

Iowa looks like it's starting to creep into our corner. I have little faith in Michigan, and of the other 3 I listed I think we'll only lose 1 of those.

Posted by: trowaman at May 30, 2006 01:52 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Oh yeah, and California is in my Dems might take category. Too close to call for me, never underestimate people voting for someone becaus ehtey think it might be cool or funny*.

*This is being blogged from the state where Kinky Friedman is running, the ultimate joke candidate.

Posted by: trowaman at May 30, 2006 02:00 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Yeah but it's not very popular I mean it makes seem like you ran for Governor just to get a higher name ID for the Senate run if this wasn't Alaska I would say it's okay but it is Alaska and as a Democrat you have to run a flawless campaign for anything that liability alone would probibly kill his chances.

Posted by: D in FL. at May 30, 2006 02:02 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I didn't mean that South Carolina was IN play right now, I meant that it has the potential to be. Afterall, Time Magazine called Sanford one of the worst Governors in America. His approvals are frustratingly mediocre when they should be negative, though.

Posted by: James L. at May 30, 2006 02:52 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

My question is, though, that if Knowles is such a great candidate, and if voters really are upset with Gov. Murkowski for appointing his daughter, why did Alaska voters send Lisa Murkowski to the Senate free and clear, OVER Knowles in 2004? Was this just the Republican title wave in a Presidential year? Part of me is really uneasy about calling Alaska a great pickup opportunity until some polling comes in.

Posted by: mihan at May 30, 2006 06:18 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Does anyone know if Stevens is going to run for re-election? Because if he is, he's probably the safest Republican incumbent in 2008 (although he'll have competition for that title from a bunch of people).

If not, I'm still not sure that we'd have a chance of picking it up in a presidential election year.

Posted by: DemocraticLuntz at May 30, 2006 10:23 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

As far as the "free and clear" comment about Lisa Murkowski, frankly she didn't get 50%;

2004 AK Senate:
Murkowski,Lisa-R 48.58%
Knowles 45.55%
4 Indies 5.87%

Given that Bush carried AK by 61%, that top of the ballot race was a big wave to overcome. Plus it is also possible that the voters upset about Dad's appointment of daughter may have been more upset with him than deciding to take it out on her.

Posted by: Predictor at May 30, 2006 02:22 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

As an Alaskan, I think I can say that voters liked Lisa quite a bit better than they currently like her dad, and that he is likely to have a harder time with the nepotism issue than she did. Her victory over Knowles in the Senate race is no indication of what's to come in the governor's race.

Posted by: Peter in Alaska at May 30, 2006 08:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment