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Tuesday, February 07, 2006

MA-Gov: Reilly Has Lead Over Patrick

Posted by DavidNYC

Independent primary polls seem to be all too rare. Fortunately, Suffolk University has given us one for the Dems running for MA-Gov (registered voters, no trendlines):

Tom Reilly: 39
Deval Patrick: 30
Undecided: 31
(MoE: ±4.9%)

Suffolks says that Reilly once had a forty-point lead, but that was a year ago, so I'm not including that as a trendline. Both men beat the likely GOP candidate, Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey, though Reilly's margin is quite a bit bigger. He wins 47-32, while Patrick wins 39-32.

However, Reilly has much higher name recognition (35-33 favorability, and an additional 25% who've heard of him but have no opinion), while Patrick is at 19-11-33. In other words, only 8% of respondents said they've never heard of Reilly, while 38% said that about Patrick. If Patrick can close that name reco gap, then Reilly is probably in trouble - something which will no doubt delight many netroots activists.

P.S. Props to Suffolk for releasing extensive crosstab info. Also, good work on framing the name rec questions - I like being able to know the split between "no opinion" and "never heard of the guy."

Posted at 10:46 AM in 2006 Elections - State, Massachusetts | Technorati

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Recently met Patrick at a Dem. pre-caucas meeting. The guy has got "it." He both glib and urbane. This is a real progressive candidate. Reilly on the other hand is old school with the usual South Boston/labor cabal behind him.
Both can and will kick ass on the Repug entry of Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey a complete and utter empty skirt if there ever was one. Hopefully the RNC will read the tea leaves wrong in the MA gov's race and throw lots of money at it........right into the toilet.

Posted by: marty13 [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 7, 2006 04:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Marty: I usually think of the word "glib" as having negative connotations. Do you mean he was a charming/quick-witted/polished/what-have-you speaker?

Posted by: DavidNYC [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 7, 2006 04:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

charming/quick-witted/polished/what-have-you speaker?

yeah, yeah....what you said. :) Y
You're right, glib is a bit too negative. Patrick is a thoughtful and formidable intellect. His resume reads like something from Horatio Alger. Once his name gets more play, watch the numbers soar.

Posted by: marty13 [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 7, 2006 05:44 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I've seen him in person too -- he definitely has the mojo!

Posted by: Isaac Goldstein [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 7, 2006 07:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment