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Monday, November 28, 2005

MA-Gov: Healy (R) Looking Weak

Posted by DavidNYC

Mitt Romney is running for president. He's not running for re-election as governor of Massachusetts. Everyone seems to agree on that.

Here's something you probably didn't realize - or at least, haven't contemplated for a long while: Massachusetts has not had a Democratic governor since Michael Dukakis left office in 1991. Hard to believe for a state where both senators and ten of ten congressmen are Democrats.

But a new poll puts wind in the sails for long-suffer Massachusetts Dems. Romney's likely successor, Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey, is getting badly beaten by all comers (registered voters, mid-Sept. in parens):

Reilly: 56 (49)
Healey: 25 (28)

Galvin: 49 (43)
Healey: 28 (32)

Patrick: 44 (31)
Healey: 36 (32)
(MoE: ±5.1%)

The Dems are Mass AG Tom Reilly; Mass Secretary of the Commonwealth (aka Secretary of State) Bill Galvin; and Deval Patrick, former Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights under Clinton. And just also be aware of the fairly high margin of error.

Healey's approval is 32-33, with 37% saying they don't know who she is. Unfortunately, State House did not ask for approval ratings (or plain name reco) for the Dems, but I'm gonna guess that they aren't any higher than Healey's - if anything, they may be lower (especially Patrick's). You can't get cocky here, of course - I though Bob Reich would beat Romney three years ago, simply because of how Democratic the state is. But at least in the early going, Mass Dems might have a legit chance to retake a statehouse that has been out of our grasp for almost fifteen years.

Posted at 11:56 AM in 2006 Elections - State, Massachusetts | Technorati

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Bill Weld is rumored to be considering a run against Elliot Spitzer in New York...for some strange reason. If the GOP's prospects remain as bleak as they are currently in holding the statehouse, I could see Weld being beckoned back to the state to quench his apparent thirst for additional public service.

As for MA's Congressional delegation, there are 10 House Democrats instead of nine. MA dodged a bullet in not losing one of their representatives (and electoral votes) in 2000. Barring a groundswell of population growth in the next years, I'm expecting your "nine out of nine Democrats in Congress prophecy to be self-fulfilling in MA.

Posted by: Mark [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 28, 2005 12:30 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The Weld story is not a rumor at all. He is definitely running.

Posted by: nickshepDEM [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 28, 2005 12:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Crikey, Mark, you must have read my post in the fifteen seconds before I caught that error and fixed it. ;)

Posted by: DavidNYC [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 28, 2005 12:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I didn't make myself very clear about Bill Weld. I was suggesting he could abandon plans to run for the New York Governor's race and make another run at Massachusetts if Romney opts out. I think he has a much better chance at winning in MA than NY.

Posted by: Mark [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 28, 2005 01:30 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The numbers here went up about 10 points per Dem since the last iteration of this poll. When that happens, you have to believe that it isn't because of anything the Dems are doing (Patrick is the only one actively campaigning right now), but because of backlash against the Romney administration or Republicans in general.

Perhaps even more interesting is what you didn't post here... All the Dems beat Romney head-to-head!!! (Well, Patrick loses by 2 points, but that is within the margin of error and I'm being optimistic...) How can this guy expect to win a Presidential race when he can't even win re-election as governor?

Don't expect Romney to run for either office. Expect him to take a Rahm Emanuel-like position in the upper-echelons of the Republican Party on the national level.

And, watch out for Deval Patrick. This guy is a sleeper right now, but he is head-and-shoulders the best candidate we in Massachusetts have seen in decades... he's gaining momentum and should blow away the competition if he can get some funds raised and some better name recognition...

Posted by: dancroak [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 28, 2005 11:24 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

If Romney loses, he can just say that he's too conservative/too moderate for loony Massachusetts, and that could be a selling point to GOP primary voters.

It's a bit of a stretch, yeah, but it's imaginable.

Posted by: HellofaSandwich [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 29, 2005 12:33 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Sandwich: I actually think that's plausible. It's well-known that Romney bashes Mass. when he travels outside the state - other state leaders have called him on it. (Reminds me a bit of how Yasser Arafat would often promise one thing in English and quite another in Arabic.)

Anyhow, Romney could quit his job early, pull up stakes and head back to uber-conservative Utah and start railing against Massachusetts. It could work.

But, in the end, I think dan's assessment is more reasonable. After all, George Pataki, who cuts a similar figure to Romney, has managed to get re-elected twice in "liberal" New York. While some conservatives might be pleased to see Romney "run out on a rail" from Mass. (even if it's Romney actually doing the leaving - never mind reality), I think more Republicans will simply conclude he's a loser.

On the other hand, if and when he definitively and finally says he isn't running for re-election, pollsters will stop including his name and this will all be forgotten, or dismissed as a "few old polls."

Posted by: DavidNYC [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 29, 2005 01:11 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Couldn't someone release an ad with footage of Romney bashing Massachusetts (if he actually runs for Governor)?

Posted by: RBH [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 29, 2005 09:26 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Not to be a stickler but...

The post includes a comment that you thought Robert Reich would beat Romney in the 2002 governor's race. As high a regard as I hold Mr. Reich, he did not make it out of the Democratic primary field. Our nominee was State Treasurer Shannon O'Brien, who lost 50%-45%.

Posted by: howlless [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 29, 2005 01:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

In theory, runoff elections wouldn't be a bad idea for the Democratic side in Massachusetts, although they would have to move the primary back from September to fit in a runoff.

Then again, I sorta disapprove of people getting a nomination by winning 30% of the vote. Having a majority of the party behind a candidate isn't too hard of a prerequisite to getting nominated, it tends to weed out some big loons.

Posted by: RBH [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 29, 2005 02:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Now that we KNOW who the turncoats are in the Senate, those republicans posing as Democrats (e.g., Conrad, Lieberman, Nelson (bof' em))
can you give me the states and office phone numbers of their State Democratic Committee?

Just as the freedom riders came to Birmingham to help us overthrow the segregation laws there, I want to both support liberal Democrats to run against these ignorant/bought/apathetic hacks and work for them. I did it for Kerry in New Hampshire and regret not going to Ohio. No more regrets. I want my country back.

Posted by: patrioticpilgrim [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 31, 2006 03:17 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment