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Tuesday, October 18, 2005

VA-Gov: No Surprises in New Hotline Poll

Posted by DavidNYC

Hotline & Diageo have a new poll out on VA-Gov today, and it's pretty much as you'd expect (likely voters, no trendlines):

Kaine: 41
Kilgore: 40
Potts: 6
Undecided: 14
(MoE: ±4.7%)

Among RVs, Kaine leads 40-38. With "extremely" likely voters (a formulation I haven't seen before), Kilgore leads by 42-41.

Actually, I shouldn't speak so quickly - this poll is a bit different from others. The number of undecideds seems to be quite high. Even with the ELVs, that number is still 13% - and we're just three weeks away from election day. I don't necessarily disbelieve that figure. I think polling firms often push leaners or word questions so as to minimize "undecided" answers - it makes for "cleaner" data, but I think it comes at the expense of accuracy. Without an incumbent in this race, it's hard to say who might ultimately benefit from these undecideds, but with momentum clearly in Kaine's favor, things might tilt his way.

One detail I liked seeing: Kaine has much stronger partisan support than Kilgore. Kaine is at 86-5 among Dems, while Kilgore is just 70-13 among Republicans. Potts, incidentally, appears to be drawing almost equally from both major-party candidates - 4% of GOPers and 3% of Dems back him. But of course, it may come down to just that one percentage point.

P.S. I thought Diageo was a drinks company. What gives?

Posted at 08:56 PM in 2005 Elections, Virginia | Technorati

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I am sooo glad there was a backlash against Kilgore's very nasty commercials.

And it certainly helps when the guest of honor at a fundraiser has to cancel due to a cloud of suspicion.

Fitzgerald's indictments should come right around the time voters are making up their minds and I think Kaine has the wind at his back. Or at least I sure as hell hope so.

Posted by: Mimi Schaeffer [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 19, 2005 08:44 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment