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Monday, October 17, 2005

VA-Gov: SUSA Puts Kaine at +2

Posted by DavidNYC

SUSA shows, like everyone else, a super-tight race in the Virginia gub race, which is just three weeks away (likely voters, mid-Sept. in parens):

Kaine: 47 (43)
Kilgore: 45 (46)
Potts: 4 (4)
Other: 2 (3)
Undecided: 2 (4)
(MoE: ±3.7%)
One set of trendlines doesn't tell the whole story, though. Jerome lists all five SUSA polls on the race here. Or look at it in table form:

Month Lead
Mar. Kilgore +10
June Kilgore +10
Aug. Kilgore +5
Sept. Kilgore +3
Oct. Kaine +2

That looks like some Bad News Bears for Kilgore right there. I hope this trend keeps up.

P.S. Check out this website to learn more about the real Jerry Kilgore. And here is Tim Kaine.

Posted at 07:38 PM in 2005 Elections, Virginia | Technorati

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This is good news on the surface for Kaine since it is a poll on registered voters, but not likely voters. The key to winning this election is having a large turnout for likely voters. The demographics in Virginia favor Kilgore in this regard. So Kaine needs to get the message out, drum up huge Dem support in Northern Virginia, and cut into Kilgore's lead among voters in Southside and Southwest Virginia.

DavidNYC, consider adding a link to Kaine's campaign on your post so others can get to know him too. The Kaine campaign urgently needs volunteers and support. They are short of them to make those phone calls and go-do-to-door.

Get-out-the-vote wins this election. Lets get to work. Keep highlighting this race.

Posted by: purpleday [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 17, 2005 09:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

One correction, purpleday: This is indeed an LV poll.

Posted by: Craig McLaughlin [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 17, 2005 11:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Your numbers are incorrect. According to SUSA's blurb...

"Kaine today gets 47% of the vote, up 4 points from an identical SurveyUSA poll 4 weeks ago. Kilgore gets 45% today, down 1 point in 4 weeks."

It should read:

Kaine 47 (43)
Kilgore 45 (46)

Kaine's got da mo'!

Posted by: HellofaSandwich [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 18, 2005 12:39 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Thanks for the correction, Sandwich. It's all too easy to transpose numbers.

Posted by: DavidNYC [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 18, 2005 01:26 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

What's particularly encouraging about these poll numbers is the gender gap situation. Kilgore leads by 8 among men, while Kaine leads by 12 among women. In SUSA's representative sample, 49% of poll respondents were men while 51% were women. Now for whatever reason, there are far more women voters than men in nearly every Southern state. According to CNN's exit polls from 2004, 54% of the electorate was female....as opposed to 51% of SUSA's sample. With that in mind, Kaine could have an even larger lead that what the poll indicates if the voter turnout gap favors females the way it usually does in VA.

Posted by: Mark [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 18, 2005 05:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment