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Friday, May 07, 2004

Ipsos: Bush Ahead In WV

Posted by DavidNYC

Ipsos has a new poll out in West Virginia:

Bush: 49
Kerry: 45
Nader: 3
Undecided: 3
(MOE: ��3.1%)

This poll was conducted at the end of last month - before Kerry's huge new ad buy. Other recent polls (scroll down) have been equally close. I am a little skeptical of the tiny number of undecideds in this poll, though.

By the way, is anyone else sick of Larry Sabato? For a so-called expert, I find his analysis to be severely lacking:

"This poll confirms again that most Americans have made up their minds already and that there's remarkably little change since 2000," said Sabato, a professor at the University of Virginia.

"It's like we had a time warp."

Bullshit. There was a lot of change after 2000, in Bush's favor. Then there was a lot of change back, against Bush. Maybe this concept is too complicated for the media - and it certainly doesn't help when self-proclaimed gurus like Sabato proclaim otherwise.

One thing I will say: The continued existence of this notion - that we're still a 50/50 nation - redounds to Bush's favor. It obscures the fact that he gained a whole lot of new support after his election (and especially after9/11), but then squandered it all. We need to spread the meme that we've returned to the 50/50 nation - and that this is a bad portent for Bush.

Posted at 04:03 PM in West Virginia | Technorati

Comments

Bush will probably win West Virginia. Its a state that has conservative values (more like a southern state than a northeastern state), and it has a lot of people worried about the coal industry, and it has been slowly trending Republican. Electing a Republican governor for the first time in years and electing Republican House members for the first time in memory. I think WV could be competitive, but I'd put lean it into the R column. It is a traditionally Democratic state, but that seems to be changing.

Posted by: Rock_nj at May 7, 2004 06:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I think Bush hurt himself with his reversal on the steel tariffs. I agree that it's lean-R at this point, but I think we have a definite chance there. I'd love to see some polling at the end of the month, after Kerry's ad blitz.

Posted by: DavidNYC at May 7, 2004 06:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I think this is especially true in states where steel is/has been a big part of the economy (think about the LTV disaster in Ohio, and the state of the economy now. People are hurting scared).

Posted by: shimamoto at May 7, 2004 10:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

WV leans towards Kerry because the Byrd machine (actually the Byrd-Rahall machine nowadays) will do what it did in '88 and crank out just enough votes for a Dem win.
Manchin (currently cruising towards a suprisingly easy gubernatorial win) also helps with getting the vote out... (little known fact: while turnout in WV as a whole rose slightly in 2000, turnout in the solidly Democrat coal counties dropped sharply).
A poll is a poll not a result (besides the recent prisoner-torture thing in Iraq hurts Bush in WV. For reasons to obvious to point out)... and yes I also find Larry Sabato extremely annoying (he is one the record as saying that VA will not vote for a Democrat as president... because it hasn't since 1964... neatly ignoring the replacement of Conservative Democrats in Southside VA by Populist "Warner" Democrats... and the increasing liberalisation of the DC 'burbs... idiot!) he's purile.

Posted by: Al at May 9, 2004 09:57 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Sabado doesn't know what he is talking about. Last summer, he stated in an article that Dukakis "only began to close" in '88 when he shed the liberal label. B.S.! He started to close in the last two weeks when he EMBRACED the label. I remember it well. He actually made a race out of it and closed from 17 to 6 points in the last few days. I even wrote Sabafo an e-mail about it but he didn't answer.

Posted by: steve at May 9, 2004 05:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

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