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Tuesday, August 24, 2004
Virginia as a Possible Pick-Up
Posted by Chris BowersThe polling to come out of Virginia has been surprisingly static:
Firm / Date / Bush / Kerry
SUSA / 8/23 / 49 / 45
Rass / 7/31 / 49 / 46
SUSA / 7/8 / 50 / 45
Rass / 6/31 / 48 / 45
Rass / 5/31 / 47 / 45
The most recent Survey USA poll is particularly interesting, since Bush is massively over performing among blacks, where he manages 22% of the vote. If Kerry can win 90% of the African-American vote in Virginia and hold his ground among other demographics, he will win the state. Overall, Kerry looks to be in a solid position for a challenger, as he hits 45 every single poll and Bush hits 50 only once. While Kerry would need to take almost all of the undecideds and the typically soft "other" vote in order to win the state, Bush's position here is anything but dominating. A swing of just two percent of the vote from Bush to Kerry would actually make Kerry the favorite in Virginia. This seems to confirm that Virginia's slow, long-term trend toward Democrats in continuing in this cycle. At this pace, in 2008 Virginia could be a true toss-up.
Posted at 04:48 PM in Virginia | Technorati
Comments
I think you're putting a little too much stock in these polls. When they do surveys to determine who is a "likely voter" the most signifigant factor in weighting the voter is if they voted in the previous election. Needless to say, with the closeness of Florida, the bitter devided public opinion and intense hatred from the left not seen since Nixon it stands to reason that the traditional model of likely voters will not hold. I would assume that this would benifit Kerry since democrats usually do better when turnout is high. Zogby has in my experience been the best at determining who is a likely voter though.
Posted by: Jocko at August 24, 2004 05:15 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Kerry has as much chance of winning VA as the Red Sox do of winning the World Series. Possible? Sure. But it ain't gonna happen!
Posted by: Pepe at August 24, 2004 05:22 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Pepe,
I heard George Bush is trying to get Bill Buckner to endorse Kerry in Virginia.
Posted by: Steve at August 24, 2004 06:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Steve,
LOL!!!! :~D
Posted by: Pepe at August 24, 2004 08:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I live in northern VA and Kerry can take this state. I have seen more bumber stickers for Kerry than I have for Bush. This was not the case four years ago for Gore.
I went to McLEAN days an up-scale community and I was very surprised to see all of the people wearing Kerry buttons. I hardly saw any Bush buttons.
Posted by: bobm at August 24, 2004 08:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Unfortunately, there's a lot more to VA than northern VA! I live in NC, and I can't tell you how many cars I see from VA with Bush bumper stickers!
Posted by: Pepe at August 24, 2004 08:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
"This seems to confirm that Virginia's slow, long-term trend toward Democrats in continuing in this cycle."
When I moved to Virginia in the early '90s we had a Democratic Governor, a Democratic majority in both chambers of the state legislature, a Democratic majority in the Congressional delegation, and one Democratic senator. Now all we have is a Democratic governor and the Republicans have majorities in all the other categories including both Senate seats. I am hard pressed to see where you see this slow, long-term trend. Frankly Kerry being down 4 points in Virginia while being ahead by say around 5 points nationally is not particularly surprising. Don't get me wrong, I would love to see Kerry take Virginia this year, but your overall perception seems Pollyannaish with regards to Virginia.
Posted by: TCM at August 24, 2004 08:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
VA is the ONLY state ever to elect a black man Governor. There is a progressive streak in VA. Kerry might barely pull out VA this year. He has a shot. Bush is actually campaigning in VA, which isn't a good sign.
Posted by: Rock_nj at August 24, 2004 09:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
As a resident of southern Virginia, I'd like to respond to bobm's comments as well as those of others --
The population distribution in Virginia is very lopsided (compare, for example, the tiny geographical area that gets *two* area codes -- 703 and 571 -- to the much larger 540 area. The suburbs around DC are packed much more densely than the rest of the state -- and as expected, are much more Democratic. So a resident of northern Virginis is likely to get a distorted view of the state, as is a resident of NC who see cars with Virginia tags that are much more likely to be from heavy-GOP cities Danville or Galax than from Alexandria.
Honestly, Virginia is going to be very close -- Kerry and Edwards have visited this state five times since Memorial Day already, with a sixth visit planned in a couple of weeks. We've been very successful at getting new voters registered, and if we can be as successful at getting those voters out to the polls on November 2, any "likely voter" models currently in use will be tossed on their ears.
Do I think Kerry can win Virginia? Maaaaaayyyyybe, although it'd take quite a cosmic alignment to pull it off. What he *can* do is make this state so close that Bush will have to spend a lot of resources on a state that he had once thought safe (thus fewer resources in the toss-up states), and this will increase the chances of a Kerry victory in Missouri and Florida.
Posted by: osterizer at August 24, 2004 10:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I agree with osterizer.
Remember Bush went into Washington, Oregon, Minneasota, and Wisconsin, which made Gore spend resources there. Nader didn't help by campaigning there in the university towns.
VA is possible but unlikely.
Posted by: pc at August 25, 2004 10:14 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Anyone play The Political Machine? Kind of fun Election Simulation. I had a blast light night as I ran the tables on Bush with Kerry. Even Texas turned on him. Not realistic, I know, but somewhat strangely satisfying. I need to find someone to make a Bush Administration Doom 3 skin...I think it may be pretty popular.
Posted by: Michael at August 25, 2004 04:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I live in Virginia and was just at a Kerry meet-up It was claimed that Zogby is out with a poll today showing Bush at 49% and Kerry at 48% in Virginia. Perhaps he has released the four additional battleground states? But I can't find the source on-line. Does anyone know?
Posted by: science at August 26, 2004 07:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
It was claimed that Zogby is out with a poll today showing Bush at 49% and Kerry at 48% in Virginia.
I haven't been able to find *anything* about Zogby's polling in VA, CO, AZ & NC. Perhaps the info you refer to was released to their battleground subscribers, but not to the public?
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at August 27, 2004 12:03 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I have been wondering why no one seems to have the 4 new battle ground states from Zogby. As a subscriber, I found them WED. Posted 8/23 NC B 49; K 50 MOE3.9: CO B 46; K 49 MOE4.5: AZ b 47; K 50 MOE4.4; VA B 49; K 48 MOE3.8. The claim was correct! I hope I'm not breaking any rules, but the information is a bit dated.
Is there any comment on the new EV count and the effects of the swift disinformation?
Posted by: Joe at August 27, 2004 08:29 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Wow! That's pretty big, Kerry is actually leading Bush in 3 of those 4 battleground states, and is within 1% in VA. Bush will bounce in coming weeks, but unless he has a serious turnaround, he's toast. His advisors must be very nervous with numbers like this showing up. Perhaps a temporary blip, and Bush will win these traditionally Republican states, but still it shows profound weakness.
Posted by: Rock_nj at August 27, 2004 09:45 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Now that Nader is off the ballot in Virginia (see Sept 11, www.electoral-vote.com), I see more chances for Kerry/Edwards to take this state.
The longterm trend towards the Dems I estimate on about 2 1/2 percent per 4 years. Given Bush's 2000 win of 52.5, this will go down to 50% in 2004. With 1% 'other' voters, could this mean about 49% for Kerry/Edwards?
Or more if Edwards draws votes from the southern parts?
Posted by: Peter at September 13, 2004 06:59 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment