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Sunday, September 18, 2005

VA-Gov: Mason-Dixon Shows a Tight Race

Posted by DavidNYC

A new Mason-Dixon poll take for the Richmond Times-Dispatch shows a very tight race in the Virginia gubernatorial campaign (likely voters, July in parens):

Kaine (D): 40 (38)
Kilgore (R): 41 (37)
Potts (I): 6 (9)
Undecided: 13 (16)
(MoE: ±4%)

But while this poll is close, the trendlines are uninspiring. However, when you look at the other polling outfits, it does appear that the race is tightening.

SUSA had Kilgore leading 49-39 at the end of June - but that lead had slipped to 48-43 by start of August. (They haven't done any more recent surveys.) The WaPo poll showing Kilgore with a seven-point lead a week ago doesn't have any trendlines, so it's harder to glean anything from it.

Rasmussen, meanwhile, had Kilgore leading by just 43-40 a few days ago. They had showed Kilgore with consistent six-point leads in August, July and June, so I'm willing to believe that their recent poll shows some genuine movement for Kaine. And with a month-and-a-half left in the race, a lot more can - and will - happen.

(Thanks to Jerome.)

Posted at 01:32 PM in Virginia | Technorati

Comments

Come on Kaine!!!! Warner needs to step up in the comming months.

Posted by: jkfp2004 at September 18, 2005 07:16 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Kilgore is killing Kaine with negative attack ads on TV. Kaine has to respond quickly - I don't get his softy ads.

Also, we need a strong volunteer and get-out-the-vote campaign or we lose.

Posted by: purpleday at September 18, 2005 08:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I just wanted to say that Kaine looked good on the debates broadcast on C-Span last night, but I agree with purpleday, he can't let these negative attacks go unchallenged.

Posted by: Tal East at September 19, 2005 11:14 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment