Swing State Project

« California Proposition Election Results | Main | Signs of the Times? »

Wednesday, November 09, 2005

VA-Delegates: Dems Gain a Seat

Posted by DavidNYC

One of Virginia's state legislative bodies, the House of Delegates, was up for re-election this year. (The state Senate is not up until 2007.) The Dems wound up with a net pickup of one seat, changing the makeup from 60 Republicans, 38 Democrats and 2 independents to 58-39-3. One Republican incumbent lost to a Dem, while another (probably has) lost to an independent who was backed by Mark Warner, among others. Meanwhile, the Dems beat one GOP incumbent. The Dems made their pickup because they snagged two GOP open seats, while the Republicans only won one Democratic open seat.

Not exactly a scintillating shift of power. I suppose it allows the GOP to claim that Kilgore's loss was a one-off thing, while the Dems can say they more than held their own in a red (Bush +8) state. DH says that the House of Delegates outcome is the "real" news for those looking to glean meaning from Tuesday's elections, but with such minimal movement, it's hard to draw too many conclusions.

UPDATE: Maybe I spoke too soon. A lot of Delegates races were uncontested, so the broader playing field was quite constricted. Only 49 seats actually had a race. Moreover, this continues a trend over the past two years whereby the Dems have picked up 4 seats (3 in 2003 and one in a special election in 2004). And as Kagro points out, the GOP spent a ton of money to defend their one incumbent who lost, their prime wingnut anti-abortion standard-bearer, Dick Black.

Plus, it looks like the VA results are fast becoming part of the CW. From the first paragraph of today's NYT's story on the VA races:

Lt. Gov. Timothy M. Kaine, a Democrat, won the race for governor on Tuesday night, scoring a major political victory for his mentor, Gov. Mark Warner, and sending a powerful message that President Bush's political standing has fallen in this reliably Republican state.

Posted at 01:42 AM in 2005 Elections, Virginia | Technorati

Trackback Pings

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.swingstateproject.com/mt/mt-track-ssp.cgi/1941

Comments

It's "real" news for me. That's my district. And in this district -- normally solidly Republican -- we've replaced the state's most fanatical wingnut with a former Dick Durbin Chief of Staff.

That's how swing states swing.

Posted by: Kagro X at November 9, 2005 08:25 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Um David, no reactions to the REFORM OHIO NOW initiatives?

Posted by: Samson at November 9, 2005 09:24 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Let me also add that that one district, that one tiny, insignificant Virginia House of Delegates district, brought Grover Norquist and the ATR robo-polling machine into play.

The Republicans spent an enormous amount of money defending their foremost anti-abortion incumbent in a solidly GOP county, and untold millions defending others, and trying to shoehorn Kilgore in.

That's news.

In fact, it used to be the kind of news Swing State Project and the "contest every district" folks used to like to talk about.

Posted by: Kagro X at November 9, 2005 09:39 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Kagro, I'm not saying it's unimportant. I'm just saying that DH felt there would be real meaning if we picked up 6 to 8 seats. All I'm doing is pointing out that that didn't happen.

To put it more precisely: Yes, it's important that we knocked off a wingnut incumbent and made a net gain of a seat. (Plus, apparently, a Dem-leaning indy.) The gap the Dems in the House of Delegates face is now not much bigger than the NY state Senate gap was for Dems just a few years ago. Ten seats is definitely doable within a realistic time-frame, and you've naturally got to start somewhere.

But according to DH's formula, it wouldn't be proper to read wider meaning into the House of Delegates results. I think on this score, I have to agree with Dana.

After 2001, I made the mistake of thinking that the Gov races in NJ and VA were a repudiation of Bush even while his approval ratings were at all-time highs. (I also knew less about politics than I know now.) So I'm merely being cautious when I say that I don't want to read national implications into the House of Delegates results.

Posted by: DavidNYC at November 9, 2005 09:39 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Samson: I think that has to be Tim's department, as he is most knowledgeable on the subject.

Posted by: DavidNYC at November 9, 2005 10:00 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

You don't have to. Let the Washington Post do it for you:

An anti-Republican sentiment spread across Northern Virginia yesterday as voters overwhelmingly cast their ballots for Democrats, sweeping aside the traditional Virginia formula in which Republicans carry the outer suburbs and Democrats win the inner ones.

In winning the election for governor, Lt. Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) took Loudoun and Prince William counties, something Mark R. Warner (D) couldn't accomplish when he was elected governor four years ago. Kaine also received nearly three in four votes in Arlington and seven in 10 in Alexandria.

[...]

"I feel that the anti-Republican tide was too strong to fight," said James E. Hyland, a Republican House candidate who lost in Fairfax County. "I personally knocked on thousands of doors . . . but it was difficult to overcome a Democratic tide like this."

[...]

Democrats agreed, saying voters in the region were strongly motivated to send a message of dissatisfaction with President Bush and the direction of the country -- a point made repeatedly at Kaine rallies in the final days of his race against Republicans Jerry W. Kilgore and Sen. H. Russell Potts Jr., who ran as an independent.

Posted by: Kagro X at November 9, 2005 10:37 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I am most convinced by Hyland's comments. Usually the other side rarely admits to things like tides or broader meanings.

Posted by: DavidNYC at November 9, 2005 10:51 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Here's a post-mortem trophy we can hold high in the VA-Gov race. Pat Robertson's Regent University and "700 Club" operation is headquartered in heavily Republican Virginia Beach. Here are the results there from last night: Kaine 47,116...Kilgore 46,469. Now that's a healthy victory.

It looks as though there are now four precincts left to report in the Attorney General's race, which is separated by less than 2,000 votes. It's still a longshot for the Dems to surge ahead but two of the four remaining precincts and in overwhelmingly Democratic Richmond city and Petersburg city, so we may even have a chance there.

Posted by: Mark at November 9, 2005 11:13 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Nice catch, Mark! As to the AG race, since it's within 1%, we can ask for a recount, if it looks worth pursuing.

Posted by: DavidNYC at November 9, 2005 11:18 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Maybe you had to be "on the ground" here to feel it. But when you've lived in a sea of "It's a Child, Not a Choice" bumper stickers for 10 years, it's easy to believe something's changing when you unseat Virginia's leading anti-abortion radical.

Here's my favorite local clip:

It was a somber moment at the Lansdowne Resort tonight when members of the Loudoun County Republican Committee got the news that Democrats Tim Kaine, David Poisson and Chuck Caputo won their respective races.

Many of the Republicans in the room could be heard asking, “How can this happen?” while the Democrats who gathered at a Sterling pub tonight were giving high fives to one another.

Like I said, a sea of anti-abortion bumper stickers and Jesus fish. They were absolutely stunned at having lost to a "silent majority."

Posted by: Kagro X at November 9, 2005 11:47 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Maybe you had to be "on the ground" here to feel it. But when you've lived in a sea of "It's a Child, Not a Choice" bumper stickers for 10 years, it's easy to believe something's changing when you unseat Virginia's leading anti-abortion radical.

I believe it.

Posted by: DavidNYC at November 9, 2005 11:49 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The VA results overall were thrilling. We were disappointed when one of our Virginia Candidates came up a little short. Greg Werkheiser got 48% against incumbent Dave Albo. That's a big number for a rookie, though, and I thought that Werkheiser really impressed.

Posted by: BenchDem at November 10, 2005 05:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment