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Tuesday, May 04, 2004

Kerry Ad Buy Hits the Usual Suspects, Plus LA & CO

Posted by DavidNYC

John Kerry is finally going on the offensive and launching a huge ad buy - to the tune of $27.5 million. What I really like about this ad buy is that, in addition to the standard 17 battleground states, Kerry's also hitting Louisiana and Colorado.

LA's margin is easily the reddest on my list, at 7.32%. Of course, we did win two big races there recently (Senate in `02 and Governor in `03), but with candidates who were a lot more conservative than John Kerry. From what I read, it also seemed that local issues - which Kerry may or may not be able to associate himself with - seemed to play a big role as well. LA's a definite longshot for us, and it's probably a state we'll win only if we've won big elsewhere.

CO is a bit different. It had a margin of 3.71%, but that was due to a pretty big Nader factor (5.25% of the total vote). In fact, CO had the biggest Nader vote of any of the states on my list, so I'm hesitant to consider it truly swing. However, with the retirement of Sen. Ben Campbell, Democratic AG Ken Salazar is now favored to pick up that seat for us. Plus, we also have two legit House pickup chances (the 3rd and 7th districts). But even if two-thirds of Nader voters, say, were to come to our side, we'd still be almost 5 points back, so I'll peg CO as a longshot, too.

I did say that I like this ad buy, though - so why? Well, for once, we are taking the fight to the enemy. Bush isn't on the air in either state yet - though apparently he plans to be soon. This means we are acting, and our opponent is reacting. And this is where you want to have the other guy: Responding to your blows, rather than dishing out his own. The GOP copycatting here is also a nice reassurance that you are either doing something right or that they at least think you're doing something right. And it sure is good to see those guys back on their heels for once.

P.S. Luke promises reviews of the new ads themselves shortly. He also points out that this is the biggest single ad buy either candidate has done this cycle.

Posted at 01:40 AM in Colorado, Louisiana | Technorati


I would suspect the Louisiana has a large Catholic population (the Cajun factor). Maybe Kerry's Catholicism will give him a boost.

Posted by: TerryVB at May 4, 2004 02:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Interesting idea, Terry. I wonder how all the ridiculous flap about Kerry's political views and Catholic doctrine play into all that.

Posted by: DavidNYC at May 4, 2004 02:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Anyone got stats on what percentage of Catholics use artificial birth control? I'm guessing it's a solid majority. Ergo, my prediction is that the Catholic/abortion flap will *increase* sympathy for Kerry among the nation's Catholics, as they see someone in the same uncomfortable position vis-a-vis the hierarchy as themselves.

Posted by: TerryVB at May 4, 2004 03:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Good point. The numbers at this link are old, but support your point.

Posted by: DavidNYC at May 4, 2004 04:17 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Hey, I'm from the Gulf Coast 45 minutes from New Orleans.

From Following Louisiana Politics I have found that every sucessful statewide Democratic race had 2 things.

First there had to be better than average turnout of blacks in New Orleans.

And second the Democrat had to do better than 60% of the Cajun Catholic vote.

In 2002 The Democrat won re-election to Senate and is Pro-Choice female.

One of the top 5 issues for many Louisiana is rapid coastal erosion and Kerry addressed that issue in Louisiana the day before Earth Day. (And got VERY favorable local press)

John Kerry Can Win Louisiana or at least make the GOP sweat and spend a whole lot more money.

Posted by: mississippi_john at May 4, 2004 04:59 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

There is a lot of psychological and tactical advantage in bringing the fight to the enemy. A great thing to have on our side is the overconfidence of incumbency. But given Kerry's stint as visaga non grata at least in print media (though aesthetically I can't say I'm sorry, politically I'm concerned) mightn't this be a case of too little too late, and money better spent in swingier states desperately searching for fiscal hope? Given Ohio's red past, Bush's bus tour right when major cities such as Columbus and Cleveland are laying off city employees by the thousands might make a stronger impact than Kerry could hope to on enemy turf.

Posted by: shimamoto at May 4, 2004 10:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment