Oregon Archive:

Tuesday, May 16, 2006

KY, OR, PA Primary Results Open Thread

Posted by DavidNYC

Kentucky, Oregon and Pennsylvania all have primary elections today. The main events:

PA-08: Patricky Murphy vs. Andy Warren. I'm rooting strongly for Murphy.

KY-03: Andrew Horne vs. John Yarmuth. Horne, like Murphy, is also a Fighting Dem, but I don't really have a dog in this fight.

OR-Gov: Incumbent Ted Kulongoski faces a surprisingly strong primary challenge. This race hasn't been especially prominent on my radar, though from what I've read, it looks like Kulongoski will have a fight on his hands in November even if he prevails tonight.

Results: KY | OR | PA.

Posted at 09:37 PM in 2006 Elections, Kentucky, Oregon, Pennsylvania | Comments (19) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Wednesday, September 15, 2004

Johnny Sunshine Does Good in OR

Posted by DavidNYC

Our boy John Edwards toured Oregon yesterday, raising cash and getting good press coverage. Jonathan over at Basie has the full 411.

Posted at 12:19 PM in Oregon | Comments (3) | Technorati

Monday, September 13, 2004

Zogby Polls (ME & OR)

Posted by DavidNYC

I'm sorry that I don't have time for a longer post. Zogby has a new (telephone) poll out in Maine. Bush and Kerry are tied at 43% apiece. Larry Sabato (of whom I'm no fan) says that this is due to a convention bounce, but given that the poll was done on Sept. 9th, I'm wondering how much of an effect the convention still might have had. One detail for those of you obsessed with Maine's EV-splitting system: Northern ME appears to have substantially similar numbers to southern ME.

Also, I missed a Zogby Oregon poll from last week (also a traditional telephone survey). Kerry led Bush by a hefty 53-43. This poll was taken during the convention, so go figure.

Posted at 11:40 AM in Maine, Oregon | Comments (6) | Technorati

Saturday, August 21, 2004

Nader Dinged in Two Swing States

Posted by DavidNYC

According to this AP piece, Nader has failed to get on the ballot in two swing states: Big-time MO and up-and-coming VA. (He also got dinged in IL and MD - sort of an Alan Keyes special.) The NYT map Chris posted a while back showed MO as a "likely" state for Nader.

Elsewhere, it looks like Nader is struggling in OR as well. His campaign says they have 20,000 sigs - they need over 15K valid ones, and the deadline is this Tuesday. I say he has no chance.

Nader is vowing to fight on in a lot of these states, but he's stretched incredibly thin. His campaign says they are fighting adverse rulings in AZ, MI and TX. But not only that, the Dems are training big guns on him. In PA, for instance, a team of ten attorneys from Pittsburgh-based Reed Smith - the thirty-third biggest law firm in America - is working pro bono to keep Nader off the ballot. I don't think Ralph is going to get on the ballot in too many more states.

Posted at 08:24 PM in Missouri, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Virginia | Comments (2) | Technorati

Wednesday, July 28, 2004

Kerry Looking Very Strong in Oregon

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Cross posted from MyDD)

The last three non-partisan polls to come out of Oregon make the state look pretty safe for Kerry this election cycle:

Zogby, July 19-23, MoE 3.9
Kerry: 52.0
Bush: 42.8
Nader: 1.1

American Research Group, July 19-22, 600 LV, MoE 4
Kerry: 50
Bush: 42
Nader: 4

Kerry: 35
Bush: 48

Research 2000, May 6-8 and 10, 603 LV, MoE 4
Kerry: 32
Bush: 46

Numbers like these place Oregon on the outer edge of swing states, such as Colorado, Louisiana and Pennsylvania, that seemingly could only be swung in the event of a landslide one way or the other. The Kerry campaign spent a lot of time working on Oregon (at least in terms of advertising dollars) this spring, and it seems to have paid off. Come September and October, Kerry appears to have one fewer state to worry about.

Posted at 11:58 AM in Oregon | Comments (13) | Technorati

Thursday, June 10, 2004

Moore Information Poll in Oregon

Posted by DavidNYC

Lot of polls around here today. I just came across a poll from Moore Information on Polling Report. Two caveats: I'm not seeing this poll anywhere else (I don't think I even saw it mentioned on DKos - could that be possible?) and Moore is a GOP firm. However, I'm posting this poll because I trust Polling Report and also because I think Moore is serious and fair-minded. Without further ado:

Kerry: 44
Bush: 39
Nader: 4
Unsure: 13
(MoE: ��4%)

These numbers are obviously pleasing for John Forbes Kerry. And as we know, Nader's been having surprising trouble qualifying for the ballot in Oregon. So I wonder where his supporters will go if they can't vote for him on election day.

Posted at 02:49 AM in Oregon | Comments (3) | Technorati

Friday, May 14, 2004

OR: Kerry Pads Narrow Lead in Latest Poll

Posted by DavidNYC

The Portland Tribune (whose polling is apparently done by Research 2000) gives us some new numbers (late April in parens):

Kerry: 50 (48)
Bush: 46 (46)
Undecided: 4 (6)

Avec Ralph (no April numbers, apparently):

Kerry: 47
Bush: 45
Nader: 3
Undecided: 5
(MOE: ��4%)

Some other good news in this poll: Independents now favor Kerry 54-39 (up from 51-39). Bush's approve-disapprove is way below the Mendoza line: 43-46 (from 46-42). And Nader's support is a lot lower here than in other polls (albeit by different outfits), though two different gurus quoted in the article are certain Nader will be a factor in this race.

(Thanks to Paleo.)

Posted at 01:01 PM in Oregon | Technorati

Monday, March 29, 2004

Nader Apparently Getting on Ballot in OR

Posted by DavidNYC

Though Oregon clocks in at a 5% margin according to my methodology, Al Gore actually won the state in 2000 by less that 7,000 votes, or barely .5%. Nader took in 5% himself, his third-best swing-state performance. He did better only in MN and CO.

This is of concern because Nader appears poised to get on the ballot quite easily in Oregon, without spending much, if any, money at all. Manny at DKos points us to this article which describes an unusual way in which candidates can seek ballot access: Basically, you get a thousand petition-signers to come to you all at once, rather than the other way around. I'll be curious to see how well this works in practice, though.

As always, I'm not really sure what Nader voters are going to do this time around. The CW says that many (but surely not all) one-time Naderites now hate Bush so much that they're willing to pull the lever for a Dem, and of course I pray that this is true. As a friend pointed out to me, one argument that won't fly this year is that Nader is simply trying to build up the Green Party because, of course, he's running as an independent. I think that may have been a compelling reason for some people (particularly those who were so-called "Nader traders") back in 2000. But I think many people might still find what they think are good reasons to vote Ralph over Kerry.

Ultimately, I still believe that, as Kerry's name recognition grows and he gets on the airwaves in more and more states, Nader's support will flag. And, relating back to Ralph's independent run, he simply won't have a party apparatus to help him out nationwide. Ross Perot could overcome this with his personal fortune, of course. If there are any old-time political hands out there, I'd be curious to know how John Anderson pulled down his 6.6% as an independent back in 1980.

Posted at 10:27 PM in Oregon | Comments (8) | Technorati

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