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Monday, November 07, 2005

VA-Gov: SUSA Late Day Update Knocks Kaine Back to +5

Posted by DavidNYC

This is a new one by me. Earlier today, SUSA released a new poll showing Tim Kaine up 9. Seemed like quite an outlier, but there it was. (Roanoke did show him +8 a few days ago, so it wasn't completely nuts.) Anyhow, check this out (reformatted for clarity):

UNUSUAL VOLATILITY IN VA AS VOTERS GO TO BED ON ELECTION EVE: Interviews in the Virginia governor's race conducted by SurveyUSA tonight Monday 11/7 (but before President Bush appeared in Richmond) show a swing back towards Republican candidate Jerry Kilgore, causing SurveyUSA to now update its final projection in the Virginia Governor's Contest.

This morning, based on interviews conducted Friday, Saturday and Sunday (11/4/05 through 11/6/05), SurveyUSA released data that showed Democrat Tim Kaine 9 points ahead of Kilgore. However, because of intra-day volatility in that data, SurveyUSA continued to poll throughout the afternoon and evening today Monday 11/7.

• When interviews from the most recent 3 days -- Saturday, Sunday and today Monday -- are averaged, Kaine's lead shrinks now to 5 points.

• When interviews from just the past two days -- Sunday and today Monday -- are averaged, the contest is closer yet.

• When interviews from Monday only are considered, the contest is tied, but the Margin of Sampling error from just the one day of interviewing is high enough, and the results aberrant enough, that SurveyUSA is uncomfortable reporting just Monday-only data.

For the record, SurveyUSA goes into the clubhouse with its final projection (based on Saturday, Sunday and Monday polling): Kaine 50%, Kilgore 45%. A closer outcome still is possible.

So, a little extra polling after you're done with your polling? I dunno - polling during the afternoon seems inherently suspect. Aren't many, if not most, adults at work at that point?Anyhow, I'm guessing that the whole "aberrant Monday data" stuff means that Kilgore had a rockin' day. So yeah, maybe it was aberrant, or maybe this race is just gonna be super-tight - like we've been expecting all along.

Posted at 09:48 PM in 2005 Elections, Virginia | Technorati

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