Swing State Project

Monday, November 01, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, November 1: Final Projection

Posted by Chris Bowers

National Popular Vote
John Kerry: 50.13%
George Bush: 48.37%
Others: 1.50%

Interestingly, it is the TIPP poll that gives Kerry the final push over 50%. With 9% undecided, and most of the undecideds allocated to Kerry, Kerry���s lead rises from 0.40% without TIPP to 1.76% with TIPP. In front of many thousands of people, I am obviously staking my reputation as an election forecaster on the Incumbent Rule. I stand by my research on the subject, and I expect it to bring Kerry into the White House with a very 1976-esque margin of victory.

Electoral College
John Kerry: 291
George Bush: 247
States changing hands from 2000: FL and NH switching to Kerry

States Projected By Less Than Three Points

Ohio: Bush 50.2, Kerry 49.4
Wisconsin: Kerry 49.7, Bush 48.4
Florida: Kerry 50.0, Bush 48.5
New Mexico: Kerry 50.3, Bush 48.5
Iowa: Kerry 50.7, Bush 48.5
New Hampshire: Kerry 50.6, Bush 47.8

According to my methodology, every other state is projected by more than three points, and thus leans toward one candidate or the other. Every single other state goes as you would expect. I have Kerry winning all 291 of his electoral votes by more than 1%. In other words, I project Kerry as the winner tomorrow night, no overtime. I have Kerry falling short in Ohio but not by much. Please, prove me wrong in Ohio!

That is the best guess I can make. Even though I allocated 86% of the undecideds to Kerry, I think I erred on the conservative side when it came to which polls I included. I always used LV models when it came to state polls, and I included, without any adjustments, polls such as Mason-Dixon, Gallup and Quinnipiac that I felt over-sampled Republicans.

If I am nervous tomorrow and have nothing else to do, I will adjust this project to take into account the final national polls. However, I doubt it will have much, if any difference. I think Kerry is going to win. I think there is going to be record turnout. I think the undecideds will break overwhelmingly for the challenger. I think our GOTV efforts will make an important difference in Kerry���s favor. We will all find our tomorrow how close I came.

Posted at 07:55 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (13) | Technorati

Friday, October 29, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, October 29: Penultimate Projection

Posted by Chris Bowers

This evening I will be going out to Bucks County in order to work with the Schrader campaign, for which you guys have raised an astounding $6,780! My trip is two days later than expected, but at least I will finally be going. I���ll have lots of pictures while I am out there, and over at MyDD I will still have fairly regular posting on the election before I return to the city for Election Day.

Before I leave later this evening, I wanted to update my Presidential projections. I have used leaners from the four tracking polls for the first time, and I currently project the final popular vote at Kerry 49.97-Bush 48.53. Also, I have narrow leads for Kerry in most of the closest states:

FL Kerry +1.12
IA Kerry +2.50
MN Kerry +4.41
NV Bush +1.89
NM Kerry +0.06
OH Kerry +1.30
WI Kerry +2.24

This comes out to 311-227 in favor of Kerry. I allocate undecideds, so this race is tight, tight tight.

I hope everyone out there is volunteering for Democrats this weekend. All the historical evidence points toward the final undecideds (now only 2.9% of the electorate) breaking heavily for Kerry, but it is not a guarantee. The outcome is still very much in doubt, especially with extensive vote-suppression efforts on the part of the GOP. Be part of the tsunami that puts us over the top.

Posted at 01:50 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (54) | Technorati

Tuesday, October 19, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, October 19

Posted by Chris Bowers

Chris's National Popular Vote Projection
Kerry 50.0
Bush 48.0
Other 2.0
Polls Included: ABC LV, Rasmussen, TIPP 2-Way and Zogby
(Methodology)

Incumbent Rule
Undecideds Remaining: 5.1%
Bush leads 47.0-45.9 without undecideds allocated.

Chris's Electoral Projection
Kerry: 316, 222 solid
Bush: 222, 69 solid
States changing hands from 2000: FL, NV, NH and OH to Kerry

State by State
AZ: Bush +3.4
AR: Bush +5.2
CO: Bush +3.7
FL: Kerry +1.2
IA: Kerry +2.1
ME, State: Kerry +4.9
ME, CD-2: Kerry +2.7
MI: Kerry +7.9
MN: Kerry +3.2
MO: Bush +1.4
NV: Kerry +0.3
NH: Kerry +6.1
NM: Kerry +1.8
NC: Bush +3.1
OH: Kerry +1.2
OR: Kerry +5.2
PA: Kerry +6.5
VA: Bush +4.1
WA: Kerry +7.4
WV: Bush +4.3
WI: Kerry +2.3

Kerry has taken the lead according to every single electoral vote predictor that is updated daily. Bush is being propped up by the ABC tracking poll showing him at 50. It sure is sweet to see Kerry���s solid states pass Bush���s total states.

Posted at 01:12 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (78) | Technorati

Friday, October 15, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, September 15

Posted by Chris Bowers

National Popular Vote Projection
Bush: 49.1
Kerry: 48.9
Other: 2.0
Status: Toss-Up
Polls Included: Rasmussen, TIPP and Zogby

Electoral Projection
Kerry: 311, 197 solid
Bush: 227, 153 solid
States changing hands from 2000: FL, NH and OH to Kerry

The Battleground
AZ: Bush +4.5
AR: Bush +2.9
CO: Bush +3.6
FL: Kerry +3.5
IA: Kerry +1.0
ME, State: Kerry +4.7
ME, CD-2: Kerry +2.5
MI: Kerry +6.8
MN: Kerry +4.9
MO: Bush +2.5
NV: Bush +0.9
NH: Kerry +0.2
NM: Kerry +5.9
NC: Bush +4.2
OH: Kerry +1.1
OR: Kerry +4.1
PA: Kerry +3.4
VA: Bush +5.3
WA: Kerry +7.6
WV: Bush +5.4
WI: Kerry +4.7

Sorry about the one-week absence. I have spent the last several days examining polling methodologies, in order to determine which polls I would include in my dataset. In the end, I have decided to go with only the Rasmussen, TIPP, and Zogby tracking polls. The advantage of using only these three is that they are updated every day, so I have no need to ever change the size of the dataset. Further, I pretty much agree with the methodology used by all three. ABC isn't as bad as I thought it was, but it is not good enough for me to add it. At least it isn't Gallup.

This system should, overall, do a very good job of accounting for the Incumbent Rule (by allocating 80% of undecideds to Kerry), Party ID (all three polls I use weight by Party ID, albeit somewhat differently), and historical voting patterns (because I use the partisan index). What this system will not do a very good job of measuring is the way this election might be different from previous elections, especially concerning turnout. My projections are so deeply mired in polling history that the further 2004 deviates from past elections, the more inaccurate I will be.

Posted at 02:32 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (17) | Technorati

Thursday, October 07, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, October 7

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Previous Results in Parenthesis)

National Popular Vote Projection
Kerry: 50.2 (49.5)
Bush: 47.8 (48.5)
Status: Toss-up
Polls Included: Economist, Rasmussen and Zogby

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 296, 221 (274, 187)
Bush: 242, 163 (264, 209)
States Changing Party Hands from 2000: FL, NH and NV to Kerry
States Changing Hands Since Last Projection: FL, NV and WI to Kerry; OH to Bush
States Projected Under Three Points: AR, OH for Bush (26, with AR moving under three points); FL, NV, NH, and WI for Kerry

Here���s one area where Kerry has flip-flopped: in the polls. Before the debate, the projected Electoral College standing was almost precisely the inverse of where it currently stands. Since the debate, Kerry has all but completely eliminated the gap between himself and Bush both nationally and in many important swing states. In many lean-Democratic states, Kerry has opened wide leads. He now only trails Bush 46.8-46.1 without undecideds allocated. For Bush to be under 47 without undecideds allocated places him in very dangerous territory, as almost all undecideds break for the challenger in Presidential Elections.

This, of course, is by no means to imply that Kerry is in a secure position. The campaign has changed directions several times in the past, and it could easily change at least one more time before it is over. Tomorrow���s debate will be huge. Kerry needs at least a draw. A victory could put bush on the ropes.

Posted at 03:08 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (41) | Technorati

Monday, October 04, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, October 4

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Previous Results in Parenthesis)

National Popular Vote Projection
Kerry: 49.5 (48.57)
Bush: 48.5 (49.43)
Status: Toss-up
Polls Included: Economist, Rasmussen and Zogby

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 274, 187 (243, 171)
Bush: 264, 209 (295, 190)
States Changing Party Hands from 2000: NH and OH to Kerry; WI to Bush
States Projected Under Three Points: FL, NV and WI for Bush (42, with IA, NH and OH moving to Kerry and WI moving under three points); IA, NH and OH for Kerry (31, with MN moving over three points)

I have had enough of tracking down poll internals. Finding all of the recent Party ID internals had become such a chore, that I came to dread making my projections. So instead of re-weighting by Party ID, I am simply going to limit the dataset to polling firms that share my polling philosophy. Re-weighting by Party ID was always a dubious task anyway, as I explained here. This is not because Party ID is not a demographic (I believe it is), but because Party ID is poorly measured by most poll internals.

So, what polls do I agree with? It is an eclectic group. Among tracking polls, I think Zogby and Rasmussen have things about right. Among weekly polls, I like the Economist. Among less regular polls, I like Harris and the George Washington University Battleground poll. If the National Annenberg Election survey ever produces a trial heat, I will incorporate that as well. I will use the most recent trial heat from any of these sources, as long as the majority of that trial heat was conducted within the past week (possibly NBC and AP as well, but I am still looking into those methodologies). Zogby, Rasmussen and the Economist will always be included.

This will make updating my projections much simpler. I will now be able to produce a new projection every day from now until November 2nd. I am also now allocating undecideds 80-20 in favor of Kerry, and taking leaners to filter out the soft undecideds.. (rationale). Enjoy!

Posted at 03:45 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (25) | Technorati

Wednesday, September 29, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, September 29

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Previous Results in Parenthesis)

National Popular Vote Projection
Bush: 49.43 (48.98)
Kerry: 48.57 (49.02)
Status: Toss-up
Polls Incluided: Economist, Rasmussen and Zogby (unweighted);
ABC, CBS, Fox, Gallup, Marist, Pew and Time (re-weighted)
Recent Polls not included: AP, Democracy Corps, IBD, NBC

Electoral Vote Projection
Bush: 295, 190 solid (295, 158)
Kerry: 243, 171 solid (243, 186)
States Changing Party Hands from 2000: IA and WI to Bush
States Projected Under Three Points: FL, IA, NV and NH for Bush (43, with OH and WI moving over three points); MN for Kerry (10, with ME CD-2 moving over three points and MN moving under)

Bush had a pretty good week, at least according to the polls. Without undecideds allocated, his lead has increased to almost three points, 47.32-44.48. Also, AZ, CO and VA moved into ���solid��� territory for Bush under my projections, while MI moved out of solid territory for Kerry (although ME-statewide became solid Kerry). However, even with polls looking that this, with a standard undecided break and a GOTV effort that improves on 2000 by only one point, Kerry would still have a darn good chance at this thing. Kerry is down right now, but not by much. We have more than enough time to erase this deficit.

As soon as Zogby���s tracking poll starts, the dataset will become far more restrictive. Also, I have removed Tennessee from the battleground, leaving only twenty-one states left.

Posted at 01:23 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (34) | Technorati

Thursday, September 23, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, September 23

Posted by Chris Bowers

National Popular Vote Projection
Kerry: 49.02 (49.38)
Bush: 48.98 (48.62)
Status: Toss-up
Polls Incluided: Economist, Harris, Pew, Rasmussen and Zogby (unweighted); CBS, IBD, Gallup (re-weighted)
Recent Polls not included: Democracy Corps, George Washington, NBC, NDN

Electoral Vote Projection
Bush: 295, 158 solid (284, 196)
Kerry: 243, 186 solid (254, 197)
States Changing Party Hands from 2000: IA and WI to Bush
States Projected Under Three Points: FL, IA, NV, NH, OH and WI for Bush (73, with NV moving under three points and IA and NH moving to Bush); ME CD-2 for Kerry (1, with OR and PA moving over three points and IA and NH moving to Bush)

Right now, the story is clearly that Bush seems to have a slight edge almost everywhere in the battleground. Kerry leads in both solid states (186-158) and in states projected by more than three (242-222). However, Bush has actually increased his share of the electoral vote, and taking IA and NH from Kerry. Altogether, a massive 137 electoral votes are projected for Bush by less than six points. Thus, my projections run contrary to the media narrative on the race. Rather than the battleground shrinking, it is as large as ever.

Posted at 02:28 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (23) | Technorati

Saturday, September 18, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, September 18

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Yesterday���s Results in Parenthesis)

National Popular Vote Projection
Kerry: 49.38 (49.19)
Bush: 48.62 (48.81)
Status: Toss-up
Polls included: ABC, CBS, Fox, Gallup, IBD / CSM and Newsweek (re-weighted); CBS, Economist, Harris, ICR, Rasmussen and Zogby (un-weighted)
Recent Polls not included: AP, Time

Electoral Vote Projection
Bush: 284, 196 solid (284, 196)
Kerry: 254, 197 solid (254, 197)
States Changing Party Hands from 2000: NH to Kerry; WI to Bush
States Projected Under Three Points: FL, OH and WI for Bush (57, with MO moving over 3 points); IA, NH, OR and PA for Kerry (39, with ME CD-2 moving over 3)

Not much change. The popular vote projections are going to move at a snail���s pace anyway, and there have been few new���or at least few new and different���state polls of late. Without undecideds allocated, Bush leads 46.86 to 45.97. The total number of undecideds is currently 5.17%. Right now, the election would hinge upon Ohio and Iowa (Kerry would need both to win, and both are projected under one point).

The number one assumption I am making in these projections is what Party ID turnout will look like. If I am right, then my projections will almost certainly hit very close to the target. If I am wrong, I could be well off. Although I originally had decided on a 39 D, 36 R, 25 I / O figure, right now I think that may be slightly off. In 2000, I / O���s only made up 23.2% of the voting public according to VNS exit polls, and with an even weaker third-party performance expected this time around, that number will probably drop even further (it dropped in both 1996 and 2000). As such, I think a better estimate of Party ID turnout would be 40.5 D, 37.5 R, and 22.0 I / O. This allocates 1.2% of the I / O self-identifier vote to the two major parties from 2000, with 0.2% going to the Democrats and 1.0% going to the Republicans. This feels right to me, and not just because it makes for fairly even numbers. Republicans have gained very slightly on Democrats in Party ID since the 2000 election, and I believe that Party ID turnout will be quite close to 40.5-37.5-22.0. If anyone is willing to offer a different estimate of Party ID, I am more than willing to hear it and the rationale behind it.

Posted at 03:08 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (8) | Technorati

Friday, September 17, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, September 17

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Yesterday���s Results in Parenthesis)

National Popular Vote Projection
Kerry: 49.19 (48.83)
Bush: 48.81 (49.17)
Status: Toss-up
Polls included: ABC, CBS, Fox, Gallup, IBD / CSM, Newsweek, Pew (re-weighted); Economist, Harris, ICR, Rasmussen and Zogby (un-weighted)
Recent Polls not included: AP, Time

Electoral Vote Projection
Bush: 284, 196 solid (284, 196)
Kerry: 254, 197 solid (254, 190; MI becomes solid, MN becomes lean)
States Changing Party Hands from 2000: NH to Kerry; WI to Bush
States Projected Under Three Points: FL, MO, OH and WI for Bush (68, with FL, OH and WI moving under 3); IA, ME CD-2, NH, OR and PA for Kerry (40, with ME statewide moving over 3)

That���s right���on a day when a poll is released showing Bush up 13, Kerry gained in my projections. This is largely because the new Pew poll was added, and I was quickly able to track down the Gallup Party ID internals, which actually show the race tied at 48. These new polls also increased the size of the undecided poll, which always allows Kerry to inch up in my projections. Without the undecideds allocated, Bush leads 47.08 to 45.84.

The important trend in recent polls, with the exception of Gallup, is that they no longer show Bush rising. Instead, the race is static or Kerry is gaining. Whenever the trend is moving in Bush���s direction, I feel nervous even if Kerry is ahead or the race is still tied. After all, who knows for sure when the trend will change? However, now that the trend no longer favors Bush, I feel a lot more relaxed, even though the campaign is still essentially a toss-up. In fact, the campaign is such a toss-up, that if the election were held tomorrow, I would feel confident about projecting 216 electoral votes for Bush, 214 for Kerry, and 108 too close to call. To win, Kerry would need to piece together 56 electoral votes from FL, IA, ME CD-2, NH, OH, OR, PA and WI. That is impossible without winning one of the big three (FL, OH and PA).

Posted at 06:59 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (32) | Technorati

Thursday, September 16, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, September 16

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Yesterday���s Number in Parenthesis)

National Vote Projection
Bush: 49.17 (49.01)
Kerry: 48.83 (48.99)
Status: Toss-up
Polls Used: ABC, CBS, Economist, Fox, Gallup, Harris, ICR, Newsweek, Rasmussen, Zogby
Recent Polls not used: AP, IBD / CSM, Time

Electoral Vote Projection
Bush: 284, 196 solid (284, 196)
Kerry: 254, 190 solid (254, 207, losing Michigan from solid)
States Changing Party Hands from 2000: WI to Bush; NH to Kerry
States Projected Under Three Points: MO for Bush (11, Florida moving over 3); IA, ME statewide and CD-2, NH, PA and OR for Kerry (42, Oregon moving under 3)

I am going to warn you right now: don���t expect the new GECC to be particularly exciting and show much movement on a daily basis. Previous studies have shown that fluctuations in Party ID in polls account overwhelmingly for the way they fluctuate during September and October. Since I have quite intentionally flattened out that aspect of polling, for a candidate to move even half a point in one day would be enormous. It is perhaps possible that things will speed up once other tracking polls besides Rasmussen come onto the scene, thereby reducing the size of the dataset, but even then I wouldn���t count on it.

Bush is ahead by 47.76-46.11 nationally when undecideds are not allocated. Then again, if I wasn���t allocating undecideds I wouldn���t be using likely voter models, which would probably show something closer than 47.76-46.11. If I had to guess right now, I would say that there is at least a twenty percent chance that the winner of the popular vote in this election was going to lose the Electoral College. While that person is more likely to be Kerry, it could also be Bush, especially if both Florida and Pennsylvania was to buck the national trend (which would make Kerry impervious to losing two out of three from Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin). With New Hampshire and Nevada as prime pickup opportunities for Kerry, the true nightmare scenario is still Bush winning in the House after a tied Electoral College.

Bush moved up today after the introduction of the Harris and Economist polls by following up a very good day in Rasmussen on Tuesday with a Wednesday that equaled his best day during the convention. Of course, by Sunday, both days will be removed, and things will probably be close again. The Rasmussen poll keeps me from feeling euphoric about the Harris poll. Still, when the most historically accurate pollster in the land shows Kerry up one, I���m inclined to smile a bit.

New Jersey has replaced California in my twenty-two state-by-state projections. Right now, I have Kerry up 6.1 in the Garden state.

Posted at 02:12 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (7) | Technorati

Wednesday, September 15, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, September 15

Posted by Chris Bowers

National Vote Projection
Bush: 49.01
Kerry: 48.99
Status: Toss-up
Polls Incluided: ABC, CBS, Fox, Gallup, ICR, Newsweek, Rasmussen and Zogby

Electoral Vote Projection
Bush: 284, 196 solid
Kerry: 254, 207 solid
States Changing Hands from 2000: NH to Kerry; WI to Bush
States Projected Under Three Points: FL, MO for Bush (38); ME CD-2, NH and PA for Kerry (26)

The last several weeks have brought me into closer contact and discussion with a wider range of statisticians, political scientists and pollsters than I ever imagined would happen for this election. The result has been a complete rethinking of the way I am going to project the Presidential Election. In an effort to improve the transparency, statistical validity, accuracy and purpose of the General Election Cattle Call, I have almost completely revamped my methodology.

The new results may not look possible based on current top-sheet polls results, but I feel pretty darn good about this system. And, yeah, I know it seems like I either slightly or massively alter the way I do these things ever other week, but I am always incorporating the new information I learn and discover about elections, demographics and statistics. Every alteration is a good one, I hope.

Right now, I am not projecting a large battleground. In fact, it is really just Pennsylvania and Florida. Kerry would need both in order to win.

Posted at 04:34 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (12) | Technorati

Thursday, September 09, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, September 9

Posted by Chris Bowers

(9/4 Results in Parenthesis)

National Popular Vote Projection
Bush: 49.43 (50.30)
Kerry: 48.57 (47.70)
Other: 2.00 (2.00)
Status: Toss-up

Electoral College Projection
Kerry: 291, 179 solid (254, 169)
Bush: 247, 196 solid (184, 194)
States Changing Hands from 2000: FL and NH to Kerry
States Projected By Less Than Three Points: NV and OH for Bush (26); FL, IA, ME CD-2, NH, NM, OR, PA and WI (82)

Kerry holds a lead in the Electoral College largely due to a weird statistical quirk. While Bush is ahead in the national vote projection (49.43-48.57), solid EVs (196-179), EV's by more than three (221-205), right now I project almost every single close state to swing Kerry's way. There would be some sweet justice in such a result, and hopefully, if this did take place, it would finally lead to some serious electoral reform in this country (although that would be unlikely).

The scenario is actually more likely that many of us realize. While most recent polls have shown Bush ahead nationally, Zogby, Rasmussen and Gallup all showed Kerry with a lead in the "battleground." One problem with Bush's strategy of solidifying his base while Kerry goes after swing voters is that while it will probably lead to red states looking a lot more strong and blue ones, it also concedes Kerry an advantage in the legally binding purple states.

I calculated these results before the new CBS and ABC polls that will be out in full by tonight or tomorrow morning, which probably means that Bush will move back ahead tomorrow. These figures also do not include the new Rasmussen state polls that will be coming out later today.

Posted at 01:44 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (10) | Technorati

Saturday, September 04, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, September 4

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Previous Numbers in Parenthesis)

National Popular Vote Projection
Bush: 50.30 (47.98)
Kerry: 47.70 (50.02)
Status: Toss-up

Electoral College Projection
Bush: 284, 194 solid (252, 161)
Kerry: 254, 169 solid (286, 210)
States Changing Hands from 2000: WI to Bush
States Projected Under Three Points: AR, FL, NV and WI for Bush (48); IA, ME CD-1, MN, NH and NM for Kerry (27)

On the strength of a very real convention bounce, Bush has retaken the lead. In fact, this is his second largest lead in the national vote projection ever. He has passed Kerry in electoral votes, solid electoral votes, and even semi-solid electoral votes (states by more than three). Right now, conflicting results from, on the one hand, ARG, Zogby and Rassmussen and, on the other hand, Newsweek and Time, keep the race close. Also, the internals of the race have shifted toward Bush, as wrong track numbers are now only around 5 or 6 points in the red, and Bush's job approval is now clearly in the black.

I expect things to get worse before they get better. I have little doubt that when Gallup starts their tracking poll this week, it will show Bush up by 5-12. We will have to see what the future brings, but remember that right now Kerry is still close. Keep fighting the good fight.

Posted at 02:17 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (36) | Technorati

Monday, August 30, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, August 30

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Previous Results in Parenthesis)

National Popular Vote
Kerry: 50.02 (50.43)
Bush: 47.98 (47.57)
Other: 2.00 (2.00)
Status: Toss-up

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 286, 210 solid (281, 180)
Bush: 252, 161 solid (257, 142)
States Changing Party Hands From 2000: WI to Bush; FL, NV and NH to Kerry
States Projected Under Three Points: AR, MO, OH, TN and WI for Bush (58); FL and NV for Kerry (32)

I'm ramping up the GECC for the final nine weeks. From now on, a state--or the race--is considered solid if one candidate is projected to win by six points or more. Also, undecideds are allocated both nationally and for state polls. I split the undecideds 60/40 for Kerry, as per my research on the subject. Call it biased if you will, but it is what I believe. I also believe it is a conservative estimate. After September 18th, when voting begins, I'll start allowing likely voter national trial heats into the formula if no registered voter model is available from the same organization.

Bush continues to close on Kerry. Bush hasn't led in ten weeks. We shall soon see if that streak ends.

Posted at 10:45 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (9) | Technorati

Friday, August 27, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, August 27

Posted by Chris Bowers

(8/25 Results in parenthesis)

National Popular Vote Projection
Kerry: 50.43 (51.83)
Bush: 47.57 (46.67)
Status: Toss-up

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 281, 180 solid (322, 211)
Bush: 257, 142 solid (216, 142)
States Changing Hands from 2000: FL and NH to Kerry; WI to Bush
States Projected Under Three Points: AR, MO, NV, OH, TN and WI for Bush (63); FL and ME CD-2 for Kerry (28)

Ouch. The halcyon days of the last two months appear to be over, and Kerry's wide lead is no more. In fact, this scenario has every possibility to turn into another Florida recount disaster. While Kerry still leads among states projected by more than three points, 243-194, that advantage could be wiped out by the Republican convention. It is highly likely that Kerry will drop below 50 in the national popular vote projection for the next two or three weeks. Bush will probably be ahead for some of that time.

Such is the ebb and flow of the campaign. During April and May, Bush experienced an unbroken string of bad news: Richard Clarke, the April Iraqi uprising and Abu Ghraib. In early May Kerry took his first post-Super Tuesday lead and held it until early June when the Bush team played Reagan's death perfectly by pulling all campaign stops, thereby forcing Kerry to do the same. This resulted in a dearth of political news to report except Reagan's death, and what Wonkette aptly named "Gipperporn." For a couple of weeks, Bush pulled even and even inched ahead. However, once Regan was buried, the VP speculation began full-force, and with the selection of Edwards, the build-up to the convention, the convention itself and Kerry's post-convention cross-country tour, Kerry soared back to the same peak he achieved in early June. However, once Kerry's tour was over and the Olympics started the SBL crap became the order of the day, and Bush has once again closed the gap.

Posted at 01:25 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (42) | Technorati

Wednesday, August 25, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, August 25

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Previous Results in Parenthesis)

National Popular Vote Projection
Kerry: 51.83 (51.42)
Bush: 46.17 (46.58)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 322, 211 solid (327, 213)
Bush: 216, 142 solid (211, 133)
States Changing Hands from 2000: FL, MO, NH and OH to Kerry
States Currently Under Three Points: AR, CO, NV, and TN for Bush (31); FL, MO and OH for Kerry (58)

So, Bush lost ground in the popular vote, but gained ground in the electoral vote, even to the point where Kerry no longer has 270 EV's projected by more than three points. Go figure. In a normal Democracy, gaining ground among the electorate at large would mean that you were closing to winning, rather than the other way around. Also interestingly, who would have ever thought that AR, CO and TN would be among the seven closest states?

Kerry still looks good though, since the electoral projection distributes undecideds equally between Bush and Kerry. If Kerry were to receive even 60% of the undecideds (likely), than he would win AR, TN and NV, and take FL, MO and OH comfortably. 344 electoral votes would be fine by me!

Posted at 04:39 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (15) | Technorati

Sunday, August 22, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, August 22

Posted by Chris Bowers

Popular Vote Projection
Kerry: 51.42
Bush: 46.58
Other: 2.00
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 327, 213 solid
Bush: 211, 133 solid
States Changing Hands from 2000: FL, MO, NH, OH and WV to Kerry
States Projected Under 3 Points: AZ, AR, CO, NV, NC and TN (56); MO, OH, WV and WI (46)

I am going to try something new with the GECC and allocate the undecideds 60/40 in favor of Kerry in accordance with my research on the topic. Also, I will fix the third-party vote at 2%. Even though both numbers are based on significant statistical findings, they are still both estimates.

The Electoral College projection is becoming static at 327-211 in favor of Kerry. At this stage of the race, that is a very good sign for the challenger.

Posted at 03:30 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (4) | Technorati

Saturday, August 21, 2004

Bush Crosses into Doomed Territory in New Mexico

Posted by Chris Bowers

Over at MyDD, I have been keeping track of something I call The Doom Index. In under-polled New Mexico, ARG shows Bush standing on the threshold of doom:

Kerry: 52 (51)
Bush: 42 (43)
Undecided: 6 (6)
(MoE: �� 4%)

Favorable/Unfavorable Ratings

Bush: 43/50 (-7)
Kerry: 52/41 (+11)

When a candidate, especially an incumbent, hits 50% unfavorables and trails by 18 points in favorability ratio (on equal name recognition), the outcome of the election in almost certain. It would take a large spike in Kerry unfavorables for Bush to once again become competitive in New Mexico.

Posted at 08:45 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (6) | Technorati

Saturday, August 14, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, August 14

Posted by Chris Bowers

(8/7 results in parenthesis)

National Two Party Popular Vote Projection
Kerry: 51.80 (52.99)
Bush: 48.20 (47.01)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 327, 220 solid (312, 231)
Bush: 211, 133 solid (226, 118)
States Chaing Party Hands from 2000: FL, MO, NH, OH and WV to Kerry
States Projected by Less than Three Points: AR, NV and NC for Bush (26); MO, NM, OH, WV and WI for Kerry (51)

As happens fairly frequently, even though one candidate, in this case Kerry, went down in the national two-party vote projection, he went up in the electoral vote projection. Kerry took back Ohio but lost Nevada, even though Bush gained significantly in the national vote projection with the removal of the July 30-August 1st post-convention polls from the dataset. Bush did solidify his electoral base, however, pushing GA back to solid red, and pushing AZ, CO, LA, TN and VA back above the 3.0 daner line. The opposite happened to Kerry, as Maine's 2nd congressional district and Minnesota lost their solid status, while New Mexico and Wisconsin moved into the danger zone.

Even though Bush is still close, considering that undecideds usually break for the challenger, his position is not very strong at all. Any state not in "solid" Bush territory is ripe for a Kerry pickup.

I have updated the Methodology for these projections over at MyDD.

Posted at 03:12 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (3) | Technorati

Saturday, August 07, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, August 7

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Previous Projections in Parenthesis)

National Two-Party Popular Vote Projection:
Kerry: 52.99 (53.16)
Bush: 47.01 (46.84)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 312, 231 (312, 235)
Bush: 226, 118 (226, 118)
States Changing Hands from 2000: FL, MO, NV, NH and WV
States Projected by Less than Three Points: AZ, AR, CO, LA, OH, TN and VA (78) for Bush; MO, NV and WV for Kerry (21)

Kerry still looks strong, reaching 48 or higher in all ten post-convention, two-way trial heats. Bush only reaches 48 in one of those ten polls, CNN / USA Today / Gallup. If Kerry is at 48 or higher on election day, Bush will need all of the undecideds to break his way in order to win. As we know, undecideds usually tend to break away from the incumbent.

Kerry enjoys double digit leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Washington, shifting the battleground primarily to states that Bush won in 2000. Kerry is also doing well in Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Oregon, further increasing the pressure on Bush. Among Gore states, only Iowa and Wisconsin seemt to have a realistic chance to defect ot Bush.

If Kerry holds all the Gore states except Wisconsin and Iowa, but he picks up Florida, he wins 270-268. Considering this, the only piece of strategic advice I have for the Kerry campaign, the DNC and pro-Kerry 527's would be to significantly increase advertising in Florida. It is still the most important state, and presents the quickest, surest path to victory. I want Kerry to win, but a victory that does not include Florida loses some of its redemption value.

Posted at 05:49 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (10) | Technorati

Wednesday, August 04, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, August 4

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Yesterday's results in parenthesis)

National Two-Party Vote-Projection
Kerry: 53.16 (53.12)
Bush: 46.84 (46.88)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 312, 235 solid (343, 243)
Bush: 226, 118 solid (195, 127)
States Changing Hands from 2000: FL, MO, NV, NH and WV
States Projected by Less Than Three Points: AZ, AR, CO, LA, OH, TN and VA for Bush (78); MO for Kerry (11)

While Bush moved up a bit in the electoral projection by retaking slim leads in OH and TN, as you can see from the "states projected under three points" line, more than one-third of Bush's EV are extremely precarious. Kerry has 301 EV's from states where he leads by more than 3, whereas Bush only has 148 from such states.. In other words, even though Kerry's overall margin dropped, he is in a very strong position right now. And man, with the exception of Ohio, that list of states where Bush is up by less than three reads like a DNC wish list of states where we would hope to be competitive this time around.

Four weeks until Bush's speech at the RNC, and a new phase of the campaign begins. Right now though, things are looking pretty darn good.

Posted at 12:26 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (8) | Technorati

Tuesday, August 03, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, August 3

Posted by Chris Bowers

(July 29 numbers in parens)

National Two-Party Popular Vote Projection
Kerry: 53.12 (51.18)
Bush: 46.88 (48.82)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 343, 243 solid (302, 206)
Bush: 195, 127 solid (236, 133)
States Changing Hands from 2000: FL, MO, NV, NH, OH, TN and WV (all to Kerry)
States Projected by Less than 3%: AZ, AR, CO and VA for Bush (38); FL, IA, MO, NV, OH, TN and WV for Kerry (86)

Who says there's no bump? Since Kerry's speech, his lead over Bush in unvaforables has risen from 7.4 to 10.2. Also, Bush's job rating has once again dipped into negative territory. Combine these two factors with a removal of Fox from the dataset, and Kerry received a notable bump indeed.

This is Kerry's strongest electoral position since I began making these calculations in April and his second strongest popular vote position during that time. Never before have I projected TN to switch to Kerry. I also cannot remember a time when so many states (11) were projected closer than three points. As Austin Powers would say, it's a pretty swinging country out there right now. Yeah, baby, yeah!

Posted at 10:52 AM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (2) | Technorati

Thursday, July 29, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, July 29

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Previous Numbers in Parenthesis)

National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 51.18 (52.27)
Bush: 48.82 (47.73)
Status: Too Close to Call

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 302, 96 solid (327, 227)
Bush: 236, 133 solid (211, 133)
States Changing Party Hands from 2000: FL, MO and NH
States Projected Under Three Points: NV, OH, TN and WV for Bush (42); FL, IA, MO and NH for Kerry (49)

Bush made a significant comeback over the past week, closing the national vote gap from 6.54 to 2.36. The source of this comeback is his job approval ratings, which have generally stabilized at around 48-50 percent, and which now make up 10 of the 26 data points in the calculation. The election is now too close to call. I promise to post the way I now determine the dataset very soon, as it is slightly different from my old method. At some other point, possibly early October, I am going to have to start allowing likely voter trial heat models into the dataset when no registered voter models are available.

While TN and NH are listed among the eight closest states in this projection, I will be surprised if they end up being one of the handful of states that will determine the winner in a toss-up election. Instead, I would expect WI to come to the fore. However, I still do not expect a particularly close election. Instead, I expect Kerry to regain his lead soon, and for the lead to remain his. As the Cook Political Report noted about undecided voters:

Among all registered voters, 41 percent agreed with the statement that the country was headed in the right direction, while 56 percent thought it was off on the wrong track. But among undecided voters, only 18 percent said that the country was headed in the right direction, and 75 percent said it was on the wrong track.(...)

On Bush's job-approval rating, 49 percent of those surveyed approved of the president's overall performance, and another 49 percent disapproved. But among undecided voters, only 22 percent approved, and 69 percent disapproved

A tie is not always a tie, and it does not mean both candidates have an equal chance to win.

Posted at 01:43 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (7) | Technorati

Monday, July 26, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, July 25

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Friday's numbers in parens)

National Two-Party Projection
Kerry: 51.95 (52.27)
Bush: 48.05 (47.73)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 327, 227 solid
Bush: 211, 133 solid
States changing hands from 2000: FL, MO, NV, NH and OH
States currently under three points: AR, NC and TN for Bush (32); FL, IA, MO, NV and OH for Kerry (70)

It's Convention Eve - how exciting! Bush has made significant progress in the two-party vote projection over the past few days, nearly cutting Kerry's lead in half. On the negative side, Bush is closer than I would like. On the plus side, this allows for a larger convention bounce.

How big will the bounce be? It might be larger than even I think. As the recent LA Times poll noted:

Among the 59% who said they know enough about Kerry to evaluate him, the Massachusetts senator leads Bush by 10 percentage points; among the 34% who said they don't know Kerry well, Bush leads by 12 percentage points.

Getting to know Kerry seems to be a pleasant experience for most of the country. The convention could push his lead to as high as ten points.

Posted at 12:10 AM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (2) | Technorati

Friday, July 23, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, July 23

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Yesterday's numbers in parenthesis)

National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.27 (53.27)
Bush: 47.73 (46.73)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Projection
Kerry: 322, 227 solid (237, 232)
Bush: 216, 133 solid (211, 118)
States Changing Hands from 2000: FL, MO, NH and OH
States Projected By Less than 3 points: AR, NV, NC and TN for Bush (37); FL, MO and OH for Kerry (58)

What a difference a day makes. From a borderline Kerry blowout to a race that is only slightly lean Kerry, this was the largest single day shift in the history of the GECC. NV switched back to Bush, Georgia became solid Bush, Florida slipped under the 3.0 line for Kerry, while AZ and LA moved past it for Bush. IF these were the numbers on election day, I would feel good, but nervous. If yesterday's numbers were the election day projection, I wouldn't feel nervous at all. This projection has a longshot scenario for Kerry to lose: if every single close state goes for Bush, than Bush would take it 274-264.

On the plus side, a shift like this does allow more room for a convention bounce. I'm going away for the weekend, but I should be able to offer another projeciton on Sunday night.

Posted at 12:44 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (7) | Technorati

Thursday, July 22, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, July 22

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Previous Numbers in Parenthesis)

National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 53.27 (52.87)
Bush: 46.73 (47.13)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 327, 232 solid
Bush: 211, 118 solid
States Changing Hands from 2000: FL, MO, NV, NH and OH
States Projected By Less Than Three Points: AR, CO, LA, NC, and TN for Bush (50); Mo and OH for Kerry (31)

Wow--look at Kerry's lead. Now that we are nearly on the eve of the Dem convention, Kerry has taken a 6.54 lead in the two-party vote, and he is less than three points from 377 electoral votes. His "safe" states almost double Bush right now. Right now, I project Georgia closer than Wisconsin.

I had always hoped that Kerry could take a seven point lead before the convention, and he just might be able to do it. If the convention is mostly about shoring up your base, then we might just enter a new era of stability in the campaign where Kerry stays about 50 in every poll for weeks, if not months, on end.

Posted at 01:51 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (14) | Technorati

Wednesday, July 21, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, July 21

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Previous Numbers in Parenthesis)

National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.87 (52.45)
Bush: 47.13 (47.55)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 322, 232 solid (322, 228)
Bush: 216, 118 solid (216, 143)
States Chainging Hands from 2000: FL, MO, NH and OH
States Projected Under 3 points: AR, LA, NV, NC and TN for Bush (46), MO and OH for Kerry (37)

Bush's solid states are as low as I believe they can honestly reach: 118. Kerry's safe states are as close to as high as I can imagine them reaching (291--only FL, IA, MN, NM and WI could further become solid). Less than a week before the convention, Kerry is looking very good ineeed. This point equals his highest ever standing in the two-party vote, and he is within three points of 366 EV's, and 291 solid EV's.

Considering all of this, I wouldn't expect much of a convention bounce if I were you. Kerry is close to maxing out how far he can probably be ahead by. A four point bounce would be remarkable. Here is a simple formula I am using to determine Kerry's maximum bounce: 12 - Kerry's current trial heat lead- (undecideds * .5) = Kerry's maximum bounce. Check out a few recent trial heats to see what a small number that is.

Posted at 12:25 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (6) | Technorati

Monday, July 19, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, July 19

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Previous Numbers in Parenthesis)

National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.45 (52.82)
Bush: 47.55 (48.18)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 322, 238 solid (same)
Bush: 216, 143 solid (216, 128)
States Changing Party Hands: FL, MO, NH and OH
States Projected clsoer than three points: AR, NV, NC and TN for Bush (37), MO and OH for Kerry (31)

Georgia moved back into Bush's solid category after a brief trip into the "lean Bush" bracket. It sure was nice while it lasted.

Right now, Bush and Kerry are fighting this election primarily in Ohio and Missouri, with Florida, Nevada, Oregon, New Hampshire and Michigan running close behind (see this article for more info). If Kerry can hold the Gore states and swing either MO or OH, he will be the next President of the united states. Fortunately, at least Missouri has a Democratic Governor. I am seriously starting to believe that Missouri will be ground sero if this election is as close as 2000. Anyone know about voting machines in Missouri?

Posted at 03:28 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (15) | Technorati

Saturday, July 17, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, July 17

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Previous Numbers in Parenthesis)

National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.82 (52.69)
Bush: 47.18 (47.31)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 322, 228 solid (same)
Bush: 216, 143 solid (same)
States Changing Hands from 2000: FL, MO, NH and OH
States Projected closer than three points: AR, LA, NV, NC and TN for Bush (46); MO and OH for Kerry (31)

This is the second largest lead Kerry has ever held in the national popular vote projection. All along, I have hoped that the lead can stretch to seven before the convention. Considering what should be significant coverage all of next week, that looks entirely possible.

This is also the largest number of data points to ever be included in the GECC--28. Ever since Edwards entered the race, it has been Pollapalooza.

Posted at 03:25 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (1) | Technorati

Wednesday, July 14, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, July 14

Posted by Chris Bowers

Previous Numbers in Parenthesis

National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.69 (52.21)
Bush: 47.31 (47.79)
Statues: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 322, 238 solid (same)
Bush: 216, 133 solid (same)
States Chaning Hands from 2000: FL, MO, NH and OH to Kerry

Current Projected Standings in all Swing States
Arizona: Bush +1.4
Arkansas: Bush +1.4
Colorado: Bush +3.5
Florida: Kerry +5.0
Georgia: Bush +6.8
Iowa: Kerry +3.4
Louisiana: Bush +2.8
Maine: Kerry +10.0
Michigan: Kerry +8.1
Minnesota: Kerry +6.4
Missouri: Kerry +1.2
Nevada: Bush +0.4
New Hampshire: Kerry +6.8
New Mexico: Kerry +6.2
North Carolina: Bush +0.9
Ohio: Kerry +1.1
Oregon: Kerry +7.5
Pennsylvania: Kerry +8.3
Tennessee: Bush +1.6
Virginia: Bush +4.2
Washington: Kerry +9.5
West Virginia: Bush +5.1
Wisconsin: Kerry +7.4

Bush's dam is creaking somethin' fierce right about now. Two more points and Kerry reaches 367. Georgia is closer than Michigan, Oregon, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.

Posted at 11:04 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (18) | Technorati

Tuesday, July 13, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, July 13

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Yesterday's Numbers in Parenthesis)

National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.40 (52.21)
Bush: 47.60 (47.79)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 322, 238 solid (337)
Bush: 216, 133 solid (201)
States Changing Party Hands from 2000: FL, MO, NH, and OH to Kerry
States closer than three points: AR, NV, NC and TN for Bush (37), MO and OH for Kerry (31)

Kerry is looking strong, but there seems to be some sort of barrier preventing him from taking the lead by 5 or more points. It only happened once, and that was for less than one day. Ever since the race first moved to lean Kerry in mid-May, he has floated in the low 52's, excpet for the period following Gipperporn when Bush once again tied things up. Overall, from Bush's peak of 51.4 to Kerry's peak of 52.9, the total swing in the race has been by less than nine points. Perhaps I was wrong and maybe there won't be a blowout after all. I still hope that Kerry can break through to a seven point lead by next Friday, the last weekday before the convention, and then blow open a ten point lead after the convention. However, I am no longer counting on it.

Posted at 08:10 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (6) | Technorati

Monday, July 12, 2004

Swing States and TV Advertising

Posted by Chris Bowers

Cross-posted from the MyDD.

Kerry has just taken the lead over Bush in terms of total TV ads. Cool. However, what is far cooler is the analysis of advertising per state that appears in a separate article, also by Mark Memmott, in USA Today. In this article, he divides the number of ads run in a state by the number of electoral votes in the state:

Through June 26, the Bush campaign had run its ads an average of 393 times per electoral vote in the 17 states. But per electoral vote in those four states, Bush's ads had run 589 times (50% above average) in Iowa, 466 (19%) in Missouri, 470 (20%) in Ohio and 545 (39%) in Wisconsin.

Kerry's 17-state average was 405 ad showings per electoral vote. The Democratic candidate's ad pace in the four states getting the most attention: Iowa, 548 showings per electoral vote (35% above average); Missouri, 494 (22%); Ohio, 476 (18%); and Wisconsin, 593 (46%). (�Ķ)

There are seven states where both campaigns have run significantly fewer ads than their 17-state averages: Arkansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington and West Virginia.

Not only is it surprising that both campaigns have the same top four states, but that they also have the same bottom seven. It is particularly stunning that Pennsylvania is not in the top ten in terms of ads per electoral vote, considering how much time both candidates regularly spend in the Keystone state.

If Iowa, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin truly are the key to his election, then this article appeared a couple of weeks too late for Gephardt. C'est la vie.

Posted at 06:05 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (3) | Technorati

General Election Cattle Call, July 12

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Previous Numbers in Parenthesis)

National Two-Party Vote
Kerry: 52.21 (52.04)
Bush: 47.79 (47.96)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote
Kerry: 331 (311)
Bush: 207 (227)
States Changing hands from 2000: FL, NV, NH, NC and OH to Kerry

After spening a long time researching it, I finally decided to peg the partisan index of North Carolina at GOP +1.0, and the partisan index of Tennessee at GOP +8.6 for this election cycle. For Tennessee, I simply reverted back to the partisan index of 1988, the last time Gore was not on the ticket. For North Carolina, where it was pretty clear a shift was taking place even before Edwards, I also reverted back to 1988, and then shifted the state 7.5 to the DNC. The 7.5 figure comes from averaging the shift Gore and Lieberman brought to the ticket in TN in 1992 and CT in 2000 respectively.

All together, this pushes North Carolina to Kerry +2.4. Kerry can win North Carolina, even if the election is decided by less than two points. I can't wait for new numbers to come out of the state.

Posted at 01:28 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati

Sunday, July 11, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, July 11

Posted by Chris Bowers

(7/8 Results in Parenthesis)

National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.04 (52.42)
Bush: 47.96 (47.58)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Voe Projection
Kerry: 311 (316)
Bush: 227 (222)
States Changing hands from 2000: FL, NH and OH

The bounce has definately stalled a bit, but I am not worried. With the excessive coverage of the convention around the corner, I still expect Kerry's lead to at least double by the beginning of August. It might even triple!

I continue to make improvements to the formula, which I now believe is finalized. I ran some numbers on the 1996 and 2000 election cycles, and noticed that if I added "direction of the country" numbers and altered the way I determined the dataset, that the predictor was far more stable and guessed the outcome of each election within one half point. I will post a final version of the methodology (which really isn't that different from the one I had been using) on Tuesday.

Posted at 03:11 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (3) | Technorati

Thursday, July 08, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, July 8: Early Edition

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Previous Results in Parenthesis)

National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.42 (51.38)
Bush: 47.58 (48.62)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 316 (291)
Bush: 222 (247)
States Changing hands from 2000: FL, NH, OH and WV

Let the bouncing begin! Kerry is on the brink of taking over Arkansas, Missouri, Nevada and North Carolina. As Kerry���s numbers continue to rise during July (almost inevitable), Colorado, Louisiana, Tennessee and Virginia could also turn from the dark side (maybe Arizona too, but things are looking pretty pro-Bush there right now). If the popular vote projection shifts just a few more points (likely), Florida, Iowa, Michigan, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Oregon and Pennsylvania could all turn deep blue, bringing Kerry up to 281 solid electoral votes.

VP and convention bumps are temporary, but I am going to enjoy this while it lasts. July is going to be fun.

Posted at 02:23 AM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (7) | Technorati

Tuesday, July 06, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, July 6: Final Pre-Edwards Edition

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Cross-Posted from MyDD)

National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 51.38
Bush: 48.62
Status: Too close to call

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 291
Bush: 247
States changing hands from 2000: FL and NH to Kerry

This will be the final GECC that does not include post-Edwards data. In fact, I expect the polling to be so fast and furious that all pre-Edwards data might be removed from the dataset as early as Saturday.

Over the past two weeks I have made some slight changes to the formula in order to account for current events:

1-No polls that include Nader are included in the formula, except in the states where he seems certain to be on the ballot.
2-For at least the rest of the summer, only national trial heats of ���registered��� voters will be included. Likely voter models, at this stage, are too prone to tampering and inaccuracy.
3-In order to account for the third-party influence on the race, 2 points will be deducted from all Bush disapproval numbers.
4-The partisan index for North Carolina will be set at 8.0, since five and a half points appears to be roughly the historic boost a VP brings to his / her home state.

July will be great month for Kerry. However, no matter what crap Dowd is trying to sell, do not expect his lead to ever surpass ten points. Frankly, I do not think it is possible for either candidate to win this election by more than 13 points, and I do not think it is possible for any candidate to (accurately) poll more than ten points ahead. If Kerry takes a ten-point lead, then he will have maximized his VP and convention ���bounce.���

Kerry won the first phase of the general election campaign. In the second phase, he seems to be off to a roaring start.

Posted at 12:56 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (7) | Technorati

Thursday, July 01, 2004

With and Without Fox

Posted by Chris Bowers

Cross posted from MyDD

Just how much are the Fox polls from last week propping up Bush? I have run the numbers for how much they affect my projections:

General Election Cattle Call, 7/1, With Fox Polls
National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 51.25
Bush: 48.75
Status: Too close to call

Electoral Vote Projection
Bush: 274
Kerry: 264
States Changing Hands: NH to Kerry

General Election Cattle Call, 7/1, Without Fox Polls
National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.03
Bush: 47.97
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 311
Bush: 227
States Changing Hands: FL, NH and Ohio to Kerry

Kerry Lead, Important States
With Fox / Without Fox
FL -0.02 / 2.1
MI 3.4 / 5.7
MO -1.4 / -0.5
OH -1.6 / 0.3
PA 4.6 / 7.1
WV -0.9 / -0.02

In short, Fox turns a slight Kerry lead into a race that is too close to call. Fox News--we report, but only after receiving directions from the RNC.

Posted at 01:54 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (2) | Technorati

Tuesday, June 29, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, June 29

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Previous Numbers in Parenthesis)

National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 50.94 (50.24)
Bush: 49.06 (49.76)
Status: Too close to call

Electoral Vote Projection
Bush: 274 (284)
Kerry: 264 (254)
States Changing Hands from 2000: NH to Kerry

While I am projecting a razor thin race, this projection actually includes several polls that are not very close. The Fox trial heat and job approval show comfortable Bush leads, as does the Annenberg job approval. On the other hand, the ABC trial heat, CBS job approval and not unfavorables, along with the Gallup not unfavorbles show comfortable Kerry leads.

One of the problems with averaging polls is that it assumes that the truth is in the middle of divergent polls. However, this is not always the case. In 2000, the outlying polls showed either Gore with a very small lead, or Bush with a fairly comfortable lead. The truth was not to be found in the middle, but in the pro-Gore outliers. Where does the truth rest right now? It is hard to know for certain, but I will continue to try and figure it out.

Posted at 01:55 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (1) | Technorati

Friday, June 25, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, June 25

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Previous numbers in Parenthesis)

National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 50.24 (50.14)
Bush: 49.76 (49.86)
Status: Too close to call

Electoral Vote Projection
Bush: 284 (284)
Kerry: 254 (254)
States Changing Hands from 2000: NH to Kerry, WI to Bush

As often happens when there is a slew of new polls, very little changes in the cattle call standings. Fox had great state and national favorables news for Bush, Gallup had terrible favorbale news for Bush and a variety of state polls also had bad news for him.

On a more important note, there will definately be a change to methodology if David Cobb is nominated for President at the Green Party Convention tomorrow. Without the endorsement of several state Green parties, Nader will not be able to have any significant impact on the election. Thus, I would only include two-way trial heats in my calculations.

For more information on the Green party convention, check out MyDD.

Posted at 03:30 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (3) | Technorati

Tuesday, June 22, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, June 22

Posted by Chris Bowers

National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 51.04
Bush: 48.96
Status: To close to call

Electoral Vote Projection
Bush: 274 (237)
Kerry: 264 (301)
State changing hands from 2000: New Hampshire

Yikes, talk about a replay of 2000! It is disturbing to think that Kerry could win the popular vote by 2% and still lose, but it is not impossible. Right now, I have Bush up by 0.04% in Florida, and 1.6% in Ohio. If he can squeak out both states, even a 2% national win (arond 4 times what Gore won by) will not be enough to put Kerry over the top. Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania--three states for the three Elven kings. The Electoral College to rule them all.

Man, I hate the friggin' electoral college. Time to throw it into Mount Doom. I, for one, would much rather have the national popular vote determine the winner.

Posted at 06:59 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (10) | Technorati

Saturday, June 19, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, June 19

Posted by Chris Bowers

(June 18 Results in Parenthesis)

National Two Party Popular Vote Projection
Kerry: 50.27
Bush: 49.73
Status: Too close to call

Electoral Vote Projection
Bush: 279 (279)
Kerry: 259 (259)
States Changing Hands from 2000: Nv, NH and WV for Kerry; NM and WI for Bush

The Bush trends continues. The latest Harris trial heat was particularly bad news for Kerry, but it is sitll only one poll and, as such, has limited impact. The real worry will be if a 6-10 point Bush lead is replicated after next week.

Bush's "solid" base is now larger than Kerry's. Also, both Arkansas and Tennessee are on the brink of becoming solid for Bush. Further, Kerry only leads in NH and NV by 0.1. Worrisome stuff.

Posted at 05:43 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (1) | Technorati

Friday, June 18, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, June 18

Posted by Chris Bowers

(June 14 Results in Parenthesis)

National Two Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 50.41 (50.93)
Bush: 49.59 (49.07)
Status: Too close to call

Electoral Vote Projection
Bush: 279 (237)
Kerry: 259 (301)
States Changing hands from 2000: NV, NH and WV to Kerry; NM and WI to Bush

Gipperporn is beginning to take its toll. At least according to Pew, there clearly was a Reagan bounce for Bush. The change in the national standing has caused Bush to edge ahead in several states, including FL, NM and WI. If the bounce shows up in future polls, Bush might be able to take a decent lead.

It is still a real struggle. However, Bush is going off the air for a week or two, and the VP pick and convention loom. Things should start to turn around for Kerry, but I am not as confident as I once was.

Posted at 12:49 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (3) | Technorati

Monday, June 14, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, June 14

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Previous projection in parenthesis)

Nation two party popular vote
Kerry: 50.93 (51.49)
Bush: 49.07 (48.51)
Status: Too close to call

Electoral Projection
Kerry: 301 (301)
Bush: 237 (237)
States Changing hands form 2000: FL, NV, NH and WV

Right now, Kerry���s ���lead��� is about as thin as it can possibly be. I project him ahead by one point or less in Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, West Virginia and Wisconsin. The race has once again become truly too close to call.

Is Reagan to blame for Bush���s comeback? Maayyybe. The Chrsitian Science Monitor poll had a 43-41-7 three way trial heat in a poll conducted 6/1-6/6, and a 43-40-5 trial heat in a poll conducted during Gipperporn week, 6/8-6/13. What actually seems more to blame is a strange confluence of polls from firms that have always been favorable to Bush all being released at roughly the same time. Right now, Fox, Gallup approval and Rasmussen approval take up a significant portion of the survey. Most of the firms that tend to make things look good for Kerry, Zogby, ARG and CBS, do not have recent enough polls to be included in the calculation.

Will Gipperporn have a bigger payoff for Bush? I suppose we will see as new polls are released during the week. If he goes up any higher, quite a few light blue states on my map over at MyDD will start turning pink.

Posted at 11:03 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (1) | Technorati

Thursday, June 10, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, June 10

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Yesterday's results in parenthesis)

National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.10 (52.19)
Bush: 47.90 (47.81)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 301 (321)
Bush: 237 (217)
States Chaing Hands from 2000: FL, NV, NH and WV

I know it doesn't make any sense on the surface, but the first trial heat in a month that shows Kerry ahead of Bush in Ohio actually caused the state to shift from Kerry to Bush. The reason for this is that I use the central mean in my calculations. Adding another poll and a job rating in the state caussed the previous polls showing Bush ahead to take on more value in the Ohio calculation, while the poll showing Kerry ahead was given relatively little value. Also, ARG's Ohio poll (with its extremely high Bush unfavorables) has been removed from the Ohio calculation, giving Bush a very small lead in the state.

I currently calculate that in 15 states Bush and Kerry are separated by less than five points: Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, New Hampshire, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia and Wisconsin. The battleground appears to range all over, without any single region being the key.

Posted at 03:41 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati

Tuesday, June 08, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, June 8: Kerry Back in Front

Posted by Chris Bowers

National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.19 (51.42)
Bush: 47.81 (48.58)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 321 (316)
Bush: 217 (222)
States Changing Hands from 2000: FL, NV, NH, OH and WV

With the exception of the not-unfavorable ratings, which still stretch back into May, all of the data points in the national vote projection are from June. Also, West Virginia moves into Kerry���s column for the first time in a month.

Some believe that Bush will receive a Reagan bounce. I am not one of those people. Simply based on personality, Reagan made Bush���s father look weak and undesirable by comparison, especially among conservatives. All the talk about Reagan helping to win the cold war won���t help Bush in his war or terror either, since remembering the Soviet Union will just make Bush���s current war look small and pathetic by comparison. If anything, I believe Reagan���s passing will cause Bush to drop in the polls. When an entire week of news coverage is dedicated to painting a former president as one of the greatest Americans of all time, when Bush���s face once again becomes a regular feature on television screens across the country, the difference will be stark.

Posted at 12:55 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (3) | Technorati

Friday, June 04, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, June 4 Revised

Posted by Chris Bowers

National Two-Party Popular Vote
Kerry: 51.42
Bush: 48.58
Status: Too Close to Call

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 316
Bush: 222
States Changing Hands form 2000: FL, NV, NH and OH

Today, after publishing an admittedly thin GECC, I came across new Annenberg job approval and favorable numbers (Warning: PDF File). This wiped away almost all the May data, and significantly reduced the size of the dataset. With what was left, Bush had gained enough on Kerry to make the calculation ���too close to call.���

This is the first time the race has not been ���lean Kerry��� in almost four weeks. If the election were tomorrow, I would guess that Kerry would win. However, that is all it would be: a guess. Kerry holds paper-thin leads in Ohio and Florida, and if he lost both Bush would win in the House of Representatives after a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College. I suppose that would be fitting for Bush: winning re-election in an even less democratic way than he won the Presidency the first time.

I was hoping that the race would swing to ���solid Kerry��� before it went back to ���too close to call��� again, and that Kerry would soon hold a lead of seven points or greater in more than 269 electoral votes worth of states. However, it was not to be, and the race has returned to the toss-up it was for ten straight weeks after Super Tuesday. Perhaps it is a good thing, as always seeing things go your way can lead to complacency.

Posted at 09:14 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (3) | Technorati

General Election Cattle Call, June 4

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Previous Numbers in Parenthesis)

National Two Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.2 (52.3)
Bush: 47.8 (47.7)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 327 (327)
Bush: 211 (211)
States Changing Hands: AL, MO, NV, NH and OH

Finally, a new poll! ARG has come out with a national trial heat and a new job approval rating.

Still, this one poll has not dislodged the glut of polls released from 5/18-5/24 (CBS, ABC, Gallup, Fox and Q-poll all released numbers then), so there is little change in the overall calculation. At least one more national poll will be needed to shake things up a bit.

The Swing State Project is now the exclusive location for my commentary on General Election Cattle Call updates. Check out the President 2004 Outlook page at MyDD for more info. Hopefully, this will allow me to better differentiate between my two blogging gigs, and increase traffic for both sites.

Posted at 03:44 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (4) | Technorati

Thursday, May 27, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, May 27

Posted by Chris Bowers

National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.3 (52.0)
Bush: 47.7 (48.0)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 327 (245 solid, 82 lean)
Bush: 211 (133 solid, 78 lean)
States Changing Hands: FL, MO, NH, NV, OH

I���m an artist (make sure you agree to display "non-secure items" to see the map):

Dark Red is Solid Kerry (by more than 7)
Light Red is Lean Kerry (by less than 7)
Light Blue is Lean Bush (by less than 7)
Dark Blue is solid Bush (by more than 7)

I think Dems should be red, and Repubs should be blue. But that's just me.

Posted at 03:38 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (7) | Technorati

Monday, May 24, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, May 24

Posted by Chris Bowers

(5/23 numbers in parenthesis)

National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.0 (51.9)
Bush: 48.0 (48.1)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 320 (311)
Bush: 218 (227)
States Changing hands: Bush wins IA, Kerry wins FL, MO, NH, NV and OH

I���m going to step out of myself for a moment and go ahead and call the election for Kerry. I will continue these projections, and I could end up looking like an idiot, but I really believe all evidence points to a huge victory for Kerry.

Posted at 10:35 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (10) | Technorati

Sunday, May 23, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, May 23

Posted by Chris Bowers

(May 19 Results in Parenthesis, cross-posted at MyDD)

National Two-Party Vote Popular Projection
Kerry: 51.9 (52.4)
Bush: 48.1 (47.6)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection:
Kerry: 311 (337)
Bush: 227 (201)
States Changing Hands: FL, NH, OH

Bush is closing the gap. The race is now teetering on a return to ���too close to call.���

Since I have been asked several times, here is a description of how I project states this far from the election. I do not always trudge through the entire process, as it is very lengthy. If the ���assumed��� standing in the state leaves me confident one candidate or the other is ahead, I stop right there and get on with my life (which, this afternoon, includes seeing Howard Dean!).

--Using the national two-party vote projection along with the partisan index projection, first calculate the ���assumed��� standing in the state. For example, the current national two-party vote projection is +3.8 for Kerry. The partisan index for New Hampshire is +1.8 GOP. This makes New Hampshire an ���assumed��� +2.0 Kerry.

--Assemble all of the post-Super Tuesday trial heats, job ratings and not-unfavorable numbers for the state:

(Kerry-Bush)

ARG Trial (43-48)
ARG Job (34-46)
ARG Unfav (53-53)
Ras Trial (47-45)
UNH Trial (49-45)
UNH Unfav (59-54)

--Calculate the central mean of all these numbers, including the ���assumed��� standings (Kerry 51-49 Bush). For every different polling firm being used, include the assumed standings once. In New Hampshire, with three different post-Super Tuesday polling firms, include the assumed standings three times. In order to balance the calculation, translate every poll number into a 100.00 scale before the calculation.

--Viola! The state is projected:
Kerry: 50.4
Bush: 49.6

--In a situation such as this where the state is ���too close to call,��� I will go ahead and call it for the candidate who is currently ahead as long as the long-term voting trends do not go against that candidate. In this case, New Hampshire has been strongly trending Democrat for sometime now, and so I feel confident in projecting the state for Kerry.

Posted at 02:49 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (6) | Technorati

Wednesday, May 19, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, May 19

Posted by Chris Bowers

(May 17 results in parenthesis)

National Two-Party Popular Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.4 (52.9)
Bush: 47.6 (47.1)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 337 (348)
Bush: 201 (190)
States changing hands: AZ, FL, MO, NH, NV and OH

The new Christian Science Monitor / Investor���s Business Daily poll, combined with the new Rasmussen approval ratings, have allowed Bush to close the gap on Kerry. However, from what I can tell, Kerry still holds a lead outside of the margin or error.

Here are all twelve data points used in the national two-party popular vote projection:

The Four Most recent Bush-Kerry-Nader trial heats: TechnoMetrica, Princeton, Harris, and Zogby

The Four Most Recent Bush Approval Ratings: Princeton, Harris, Zogby and Rasmussen

The Four Most Recent Bush and Kerry Unfavorable Ratings: Harris, Zogby, Opinion Dynamics, and Hart / Teeter

Right now, the number of data points is flexible. However, I am considering fixing the number of data points at the five for each category, simply because the ���five poll moving average��� seems widely accepted in popular political discourse. Anyone have any thoughts on this?

Posted at 08:13 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (1) | Technorati

Sunday, May 16, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, May 16

Posted by Chris Bowers

National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.74
Bush: 47.26
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 316
Bush: 159
Too Close to Call: 63 (AZ, AR, CO, LA, MO, VA and WV)
States Changing Hands: FL, NH, NV and OH

Now, some people may object to the states I have either projected for Kerry or listed as "too close to call." They may point out that recent polls from Arizona, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, Oregon, and West Virginia actually show Bush leading Kerry by a few points. While I am aware of these polls, I need to point out that my state-by-state projections are based on a variety of indicators, including the national two-party vote projection, the partisan index for each state, recent state trial heats, long term-state voting trends, state-by-state approval ratings and state-by-state negatives. All of these indicators provide a more complete context in which I can make state-by state projections, rather than just the twists and turns of random state-by-state trial heats.

Kerry is up by 5.48% now, and he is starting to knock on the door of a ���solid��� lead (7.01%+). He is also starting to threaten the outer limits of pro-Bush swing states: CO, LA, NC, TN and VA. For the first time, all data points used in the calculation of the GECC favor Kerry.

This is an important turning point in the election. If Bush can stop his slide, he should still be close to Kerry when the Democratic convention comes around. If not, his situation will start to become serious.

Posted at 07:09 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (11) | Technorati

Saturday, May 15, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, May 15

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Cross posted from MyDD)

National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.1
Bush: 47.9

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 317
Bush: 177
To Close to Call: 44 (AZ, MO, NV, WV, VA)

By now you have probably heard one pundit or another claim, without anyone putting up a significant argument otherwise, that in the final week of a campaign most undecideds break for the challenger. Of the three most important poll numbers--trial heats, approval rating, and favorables / unfavorables--the numbers best able to measure this often overlooked aspect of a race is the most overlooked metric of the three: favorable / unfavorable numbers.

The advantage of the challenger is that the challenger almost always has lower unfavorables than the incumbent. When, after four years, people still cannot make up their mind, votes break in favor of the least disliked candidate. This even happened for Dole in 1996, as he ended up losing by 8.5 instead of the 12-13 points most polls had projected during the final week of the campaign.

For nearly two months now, Bush���s re-election campaign has hinged far more on attacking Kerry and driving up Kerry���s negatives than it has on building up Bush���s record. His administration may be immoral and incompetent, but it is not stupid.

However, despite spending over $100M in this task, so far Bush���s team has failed miserably. This may be directly connected to the waning influence of television ads, something which Jerome Armstrong of MyDD could speak far more intelligently about than I. Anyway, here are the most recent unfavorables for Bush and Kerry in fourteen of the twenty-two states where ads are being run (the other eight, AR, AZ, CO, DE, LA, ME, TN and WA, do not have recent data available):

Florida
Bush: 45 (47)
Kerry: 45 (41)
(American Research Group, 4/18-4/21, 600 LV, MoE 4, March 4 results in parenthesis)

Illinois
Bush: 37
Kerry: 19
(Mason-Dixon, 3/8-10, 625 ���active voters���, MoE 4)

Iowa
Bush: 44
Kerry: 34
(American Research Group, April 18-21, 600 LV, MoE 4, no trend lines)

Michigan
Bush: 48
Kerry: 38
(EPIC/MRA 3/28-4/1, 600 LV, MoE 4, no trend lines)

Minnesota:
Bush: 46
Kerry: 31
(Star Tribune, 3/28-3/31, 562 LV, MoE 4.1, no trend lines)

Nevada
Bush: 37
Kerry: 36
(Mason-Dixon, 3/15-3/17, 625 ���active voters,��� MoE 4)

New Hampshire
Bush: 45
Kerry: 41
(UNH, 4/19-4/26, 542 Adults, MoE 4.2, no trend lines)

New Jersey
Bush: 44
Kerry: 27
(Star Ledger/ Eagleton-Rutgers, 4/28-5/4, 643 RV, MoE 4)

New Mexico
Bush: 45
Kerry: 19
(American Research Group, 3/30-4/1, 600 LV, MoE 4, no trend lines)

Ohio
Bush: 52 (!)
Kerry: 36
(American Research Group, May 10-12, 600 LV, MoE 4, no trend lines)

Oregon (No link, from the subscriber section of Polling Report)
Bush: 46
Kerry: 32
(Research 2000, May 6-8 and 10, 603 LV, MoE 4, no trend lines)

Pennsylvania
Bush: 37
Kerry: 31
(Q-poll, 4/13-4/19, 769 RV, MoE 3.5, no trend lines)

West Virginia
Bush: 43
Kerry: 43
(Ipsos, 4/26-29, 984 RV, MoE 3.1, no trend lines)

Wisconsin
Bush: 54 (!)
Kerry: 26
(American Research Group, 3/23-3/25, 600 LV, MoE 4. Also, there was a slightly more recent Badger poll, 3/23-3/31, showing different unfavorables, 41 Bush and 34 Kerry, but the Badger poll has consistently been a massively pro-Bush outlier in the state).

Rove's plan appears to be succeeding only in Florida, Nevada and West Virginia, all states that Bush won in 2000. Who knows why he continues to waste money in New Jersey and Illinois (or even Ohio for that matter!).

Posted at 03:41 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (6) | Technorati

Friday, May 14, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, May 14: Lean Kerry

Posted by Chris Bowers

National Two-Party Popular Vote Projection
Kerry: 51.6
Bush: 48.4

Electoral Vote Projection*
Kerry: 311
Bush: 181
Too close to call: 46 (AR, AZ, CO, MO, NV, WV)

(* = I have adjusted state polls more than two weeks old to account for Kerry���s new lead in the national popular vote projection.)

I have been calculating the General Election Cattle Call for over three weeks now, and this is the first time either candidate has held a large enough lead for the status of the race to not be ���too close to call.��� With a 3.2% lead in the national popular vote projection, I now currently consider the race to be ���lean Kerry.��� As Bush���s approval slumps and as Kerry rises in trial heats, the immediate future looks bright for the junior Senator from Massachusetts. Currently, only two of twelve data points favor Bush: the Rasmussen Approval Rating and the Christian Science Monitor Trail Heat.

It is also interesting to note which states become ���swing states��� now that Kerry has a reasonable national lead over Bush. If Kerry���s lead rises to seven or eight points, some seemingly untouchable Bush states start coming into play (including the Carolinas). Without Nader, Kerry would be ahead by more (but not that much more): 52.02 to 47.98. Whenever a candidate achieves a lead of seven or more points in the national popular vote projection, the status of the race will shift to ���solid Kerry / Bush,��� depending on who is ahead.

Historically speaking, Kerry is in the best position a challenger has ever been in during May. However, although Bush���s numbers look very bad for an incumbent, polls are reflections only of the time period in which they are taken. Presidential election polls are a poor reflection of broad, underlying trends and cannot be easily translated into historical cause and effect. While I expect Kerry���s lead to continue to rise, I also expect that at some point Bush will begin to close the gap. Just because Kerry is in a better position than any previous challenger at this stage in the race does not mean he will continue to be in the best position a challenger has ever been in at later stages of the campaign. Come mid-September, who knows where the race will be.

In other words, keep working.

Posted at 01:49 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (10) | Technorati

Wednesday, May 12, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, May 12: Kerry Widens Lead

Posted by Chris Bowers

Projected National Two-Party Vote
Kerry: 50.5
Bush: 49.5

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 231
Bush: 227
Too close to call: 80

Obviously, Kerry is not pounding Bush into the ground, but this is still his widest lead since I began these measurements. Considering the current trend, it is quite possible that Kerry will receive a slight lean in the race before Bush does (the first three weeks have all been too close to call).

Kos quotes a Democratic pollster who argues that Kerry is much closer to Bush than any challenger has been to an incumbent in many decades. Personally, I suspected this was true, but did not have access to the historical data to prove that point.

I still feel the dam is about to burst for Bush, and Kerry will be up big by the end of June.

Posted at 05:00 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (2) | Technorati

Monday, May 10, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, May 10: New and Improved

Posted by Chris Bowers

National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 50.2
Bush: 49.8

Electoral Vote Projection
Bush: 275
Kerry: 263
States changing hands from 2000: Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire

After completing a round up of the past five weeks of polling on Saturday, I realized a huge flaw in my methodology. While I still believe I am correct in factoring trial heats, approval ratings and favorable / unfavorable numbers equally at this point in the election, placing theses three types of polls into three separate, equally weighted categories does not allow me to properly measure the central mean of the entire data set. In other words, instead of measuring the central mean of the three separate categories and then taking the central mean of the categories themselves, I should include all of the data in a single central mean calculation. Thus, I have eliminated the separate categories, thereby allowing the three types of polls to be weighted equally.

Also, I will no longer project any states as ���too close to call.��� Instead, I���ll be gutsy, look as deep into the numbers as I can, and make my best guess. (Man, I do not like predicting Kerry slightly ahead in the popular vote and slightly behind in the electoral vote).

I know that changes to my formula and a common occurrence these days, but please bear with me. I am trying to develop the best snapshot / predictor possible, and it will take a while to work out all of the kinks.

(Also posted on MyDD)

Posted at 07:43 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (3) | Technorati

Saturday, May 08, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, May 8

Posted by Chris Bowers

Since we are still so far from the conventions, much less the election, I thought I would use my first Saturday off in many weeks to produce a monthly round-up of all polls released since the start of April. This resulted in 16 data points for the trial heat category, 13 for the approval category, and 8 for the favorables category. On the negative side, it took forever to compile this and will not be congruent with other GECC results. On the positive side, these standings contain data points from almost every single national polling outfit.

National Two-Party Popular Vote Projection
Kerry: 50.22
Bush: 49.78

How close is this election? In 2000, Gore received 50.268% of the national two party vote to Bush���s 49.732%.

With an election this close, swing states would be the sole determining factor as to who would win the Presidency. Without even using state polls, which right now are all over the place (in terms of methodology, date, question asked, and results), and instead focusing solely upon long-term voting trends, here is how I would project the electoral vote to break down in an election this close:

Kerry: 289
Bush: 259

My bet is that among the Bush states, FL, NV and NH swing to Kerry (all three states have been trending Democrat for some time now), while Bush picks up IA and WI among the Gore states. Kerry just barely holds on to NM, MN, OR and PA, while Bush just barely clings to OH and AZ.

In this scenario, Pennsylvania would be the decisive state. While Florida is trending Democratic and Ohio is trending a static, slight Republican lean, until the 2000 election PA was moving Republican. Continuing to hold off that trend and prove the 2000 rally was not a fluke is Kerry���s key to victory. Depending on the size of the voter purge, Florida should be Democratic this time around.

Posted at 04:11 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (5) | Technorati

Thursday, May 06, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, May 6

Posted by Chris Bowers

National Two party Vote Projection:
Bush: 50.7
Kerry: 49.3

Status: Too close to call, swing states in play

Electoral Vote Projection:
Kerry: 231
Bush: 227

Despite all the new info (Gallup, Fox and NBC national polls, new approval and favorable numbers, new state polls), there is not a huge change from yesterday. Fox���s approval / disapproval and favorable / unfavorable numbers are almost entirely responsible for Bush���s rise.

Posted at 05:52 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (1) | Technorati

Wednesday, May 05, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, May 5: Kerry's First Lead

Posted by Chris Bowers

National Two-Party Popular Vote Projection
Kerry: 50.0
Bush: 50.0

Status: Too Close to Call
Kerry has made up nearly two points as a result of Bushs recent dip in job approval. In particular, the new Q-poll was worse for Bush than the now old Pew poll. Rasmussen is also showing a lower job approval

Electoral Vote Projection:
Kerry: 231
Bush: 227
To Close to Call: 80 (FL, IA, NM, OH, PA)

Kerry is only up two in the latest Oregon poll, but he is nine ahead of Bush on favorable / unfavorable ratings in the state, and Bushs approval ratings are, um, not good (5% rate his performance as excellent). Thus, Oregon is now lean Kerry. Combine this with the latest NH poll, Kerry has taken his first, very slim lead in the two weeks I have been calculating the GECC.

Posted at 02:57 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati

Monday, May 03, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, May 3

Posted by Chris Bowers

National Popular Two-Party Vote Projection
Bush: 50.9
Kerry: 49.1

Status: Too close to call, swing states in play

Electoral Vote Projection:
Bush 227
Kerry: 220
Too close to call: 91 (IA, FL, NH, NM, OH, OR, PA)

Even though all of the details of the new Sacred Heart poll are not out yet, and even though their poll has 0% undecideds (exactly the sort of thing I hate), I���m going to go ahead and post a May 3rd GECC anyway. Why?

Two words: New rule

From now on, each of the three categories will be required to have at least two data points, so that one new poll is unable to wildly change the standings. Thus, in addition to including the new Sacred Heart poll, I���ve added two old favorable / unfavorable polls, and removed the Marist national poll.

Expect changes of this sort to take place once and a while. And hey, please offer suggestions for how else I should tinker with the GECC.

Posted at 11:05 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati

Saturday, May 01, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, May 1

Posted by Chris Bowers

National two-party popular vote projection:

Bush: 50.3
Kerry: 49.7

Too close to call, swing states in play.

Electoral Vote Projection:
Bush: 227
Kerry: 220
Too close to call: 91 (FL, IA, NH, NM, OH, OR, PA)

No new national polls for two days now (I do not use Rasmussen national trial heats because they do not include Nader in their questioning), but the state polls have consistently been in Kerry's favor. The most recent PA poll, from Princeton, showed the race deadlocked. Even the most recent NC poll showed Kerry only down 7, and the NC poll before that showed him only down 8. At this point, it would appear that if Kerry selects Edwards, then North Carolina, which is currently tied with Georgia as the second largest state in Bush's base, would instantly become a swing state.

Right now, DC's Political Report shows WI as solid for Bush. I disagree with that assessment of recent polls from the Badger state, and currently list WI as "lean Kerry."

First, the most recent Bush-Kerry-Nader poll in WI is actually from Rasmussen (conducted only on April 28), not the Badger poll (conducted from April 20-28) as DC Political Report implies. In the Rasmussen poll, Kerry leads 45-41-8, which is a far cry from the Badger poll showing Bush ahead 50-38-6.

Second, if one were to combine all of the recent polls from WI, it would be prudent to use all three recent polls, since the WPR / St. Norbet poll of WI was conducted on two of the same days (April 20-21) as the Badger poll. Like the Rasmussen poll, WPR / St. Norbert shows Kerry with a lead (49-42-7) and Nader with an unjustifiably high result in a state where he only received 3.62% of the vote in 2000.

Third and finally, when combining all three recent WI polls, the highly variable results dictate that the best method for doing so would be to use the central mean rather than the simple mean. In a dataset of three, the central mean would dictate that the central result, the Rasmussen poll, would be included twice while the two outliers would each be included once. This results in three polls showing Kerry ahead in WI, and only one poll showing Kerry behind. Thus, as far as I'm concerned, WI is currently "lean Kerry."

Posted at 04:56 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati

Thursday, April 29, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, 4/22-4/29

Posted by Chris Bowers

[Note: I shuffled this post around a bit to put the most recent data at top and back data in the "Continue reading..." section. - David]

April 29
Bush: 50.0% of the national two-party vote
Kerry: 50.0% of the national two-party vote

Too close to call, swing states in play

Electoral Vote Projection:
Bush: 248
Kerry: 220
Too close to call: 70 (FL, IA, OH, OR, NH, NM, and WI)

In short, the latest polls, CBS in particular, hold good news for Kerry. In fact, today is his high-water mark thus far. However, we are a long way away from the election, and I imagine that some wild fluctuations will take place.

I first started making these calculations around one week ago, so for posterity���s sake here are the complete trends since I began this project. If a date isn���t listed, that is because there was no change from the previous day. From now on, I will update daily, as long as new polls warrant it.

April 28
Bush: 50.0% of the national two-party vote
Kerry: 50.0% of the national two-party vote

Too close to call, swing states in play

Electoral Vote Projection:
Bush: 248
Kerry: 210
Too close to call: 80 (FL, IA, OH, OR, NH, NM, and WI)

April 26
Bush: 51.3% of the national two-party vote
Kerry: 48.7% of the national two-party vote

Too close to call, swing states in play

Electoral Vote Projection:
Bush: 248
Kerry: 210
Too close to call: 80 (FL, IA, OH, OR, NH, NM, and WI)

April 25
Bush: 51.4% of the national two-party vote
Kerry: 48.6% of the national two-party vote

Too close to call, swing states in play

Electoral Vote Projection:
Bush: 248
Kerry: 210
Too close to call: 80 (FL, IA, OH, OR, NH, NM, and WI)

April 24
Bush: 51.3% of the national two-party vote
Kerry: 48.7% of the national two-party vote

Too close to call, swing states in play

Electoral Vote Projection:
Bush: 248
Kerry: 210
Too close to call: 80 (FL, IA, OH, OR, NH, NM, and WI)

April 23
Bush: 50.9% of the national two-party vote
Kerry: 49.1% of the national two-party vote

Too close to call, swing states in play

Electoral Vote Projection:
Bush: 248
Kerry: 210
Too close to call: 80 (FL, IA, OH, OR, NH, NM, and WI)

April 22
Bush: 50.6% of the national two-party vote
Kerry: 49.4% of the national two-party vote

Too close to call, swing states in play

Electoral Vote Projection:
Bush: 248
Kerry: 217
Too close to call: 73 (FL, OH, OR, NH, NM, and WI)

Posted at 07:35 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati

Welcome to the General Election Cattle Call

Posted by Chris Bowers

Hi everyone! Around three months ago I promised David that I would put this together. Although it took me a while to get over Dean���s primary season defeat, to figure out what went wrong with my primary season projection, and to come up with what I hope will be a more accurate system for the General Election, I think I am finally on to something. With all of this in mind, I can proudly present to you the General Election Cattle Call. I certainly hope you enjoy it, and that you return to the Swing State Project on a regular basis to check it out (also, make sure you start checking out MyDD as well).

The GECC is broken up into two parts. The first part is the Projection of the National Two-Party Popular Vote, and the second is the current Electoral Vote Standing. The second part does not come into play unless Bush and Kerry are within three points of each other in the national vote projection.

My definition of ���swing state��� is somewhat more narrow than David���s as I only identify eleven swing states (the ten closest states in 2000 plus PA). While I certainly think that its possible for Kerry to win states such as AR, AZ, CO, LA, and WV, or for Bush to win states such as MI and WA, I also believe that the election will be out of reach for one candidate or the other if any of those states change hands in 2004. So, while I am open to suggestions and alterations, at least for now I will only consider eleven states the true ���swingers.���

Here is my complete methodology. The post following this one will include the complete standings and trends over the past week.

Methodology for National Popular Vote Projection

Because we are so far away from the actual election, a lot more people are currently undecided than almost every single poll would have you believe. Thus, at least until October 1st, it is necessary to take other factors into account besides national trial heats.

I have decided to only use information that is regularly updated. Thus, the three, evenly balanced categories in determining each candidate���s share of the national popular vote are Favorability Ratings, Bush���s Job Approval Ratings, and General Election Trial Heats.

Favorability ratings will be defined as the percentage of people surveyed who do not have a negative opinion of the candidate in question.

Approval Ratings is straightforward. However, two points will be subtracted from Bush���s disapproval rating in every survey in order to account for third party voters.

Trial heats, at least for now, all need to include Ralph Nader as a poll option.

Data range: The most recent poll included in any given category is the sole determining factor in what other polls are used. In order for a poll to be included in any given category, the poll must have been conducted on at least one day when the most recent poll was also conducted.

Calculating the mean: All polls will be translated into a percentage of 100 before combined with other polls. When polls are combined, they will be combined using the central mean rather than the simple mean.

All three categories will be equally weighted until at lest October 1st.

Swing states will only be ���in play��� if the candidates are separated by three points or less in the national popular vote projection.

Methodology for Swing States

1. What is a ���Swing State?���
For the purposes of this project, a swing will be defined as a state where the winner in an extremely close election cannot be predicted based on the national popular vote. Because of this, a swing state thus has the ability to throw the Presidency to the candidate who does not receive the most votes nationwide. It is in this sense and in this scenario that swing states are the true measure of who will win the Presidency.

2. Consider the definition of ���Swing State,��� how can someone predict a state based on the national popular vote?
For all such predictions, I will be using the trends described on this page. A significant majority of states that were decided by less than 10% of the vote in the closest election in history, 2000, are currently following fairly stable long-term voting trends. It is my belief that with few exceptions, these trends will continue in 2004. Considering this, it is also my belief that in an extremely close election, the winner of the vast majority of states���including about half of all states currently considered ���swing states�����will be a foregone conclusion.

3. How are you defining an ���extremely close election?���
For the purposes of this project, an extremely close election would be an election where the national popular vote totals are close enough that it becomes possible for the candidate who finishes second in the national popular vote to win the electoral college. It is my belief that any candidate who wins the national popular vote by three points or more has virtually no chance of losing the electoral college.

4. Ok then. which states do you believe are the ���Swing States?���
Based on long-term state voting trends and what, as far as I can tell, are the limitations of GOTV, advertising, and other local, targeted efforts in a national campaign, I believe that if 2004 is an ���extremely close election��� (less than a three point spread), there will be only eleven swing states: Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Kerry���s ���safe��� base in an election decided by 3 points or less: 200 EV���s
CA, CT, DC, DE, HI, IL, MA, MD, ME, MI, NY, WA, VT

Bush���s ���safe��� base in an election decided by 3 points or less: 211 EV���s
AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY, VA

These states are subject to change as I continue to learn about large-scale voting patterns.

Posted at 07:01 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (5) | Technorati

Say Hello to the General Election Cattle Call!

Posted by DavidNYC

I'm very pleased to announce a new recurring feature debuting today on the Swing State Project: The General Election Cattle Call. Using a strictly empirical methodology, Chris Bowers, a longtime regular poster at the DailyKos, will put his finger to the political wind to tell us where he thinks the election stands.

A little background: During the primary season, Chris created the original Empirical Cattle Call in an attempt to use hard numbers to cut through the endless speculative chatter about who the Democratic nominee would be. For this project, he's refined and updated his methodology, and he'll be posting GECC updates whenever new polling data warrants it.

For a sneak preview, check out Chris's DKos diary here. Chris will provide a full introductory post (complete with methdology) here later today. Poll junkies should find the GECC especially rewarding, and I know it will provide a valuable contribution to our understanding of this year's presidential race.

And let me also say "Thank you!" to Chris, and welcome aboard!

Posted at 05:17 PM in General Election Cattle Call, Site News | Comments (2) | Technorati