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Monday, June 14, 2004
General Election Cattle Call, June 14
Posted by Chris Bowers(Previous projection in parenthesis)
Nation two party popular vote
Kerry: 50.93 (51.49)
Bush: 49.07 (48.51)
Status: Too close to call
Electoral Projection
Kerry: 301 (301)
Bush: 237 (237)
States Changing hands form 2000: FL, NV, NH and WV
Right now, Kerry���s ���lead��� is about as thin as it can possibly be. I project him ahead by one point or less in Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, West Virginia and Wisconsin. The race has once again become truly too close to call.
Is Reagan to blame for Bush���s comeback? Maayyybe. The Chrsitian Science Monitor poll had a 43-41-7 three way trial heat in a poll conducted 6/1-6/6, and a 43-40-5 trial heat in a poll conducted during Gipperporn week, 6/8-6/13. What actually seems more to blame is a strange confluence of polls from firms that have always been favorable to Bush all being released at roughly the same time. Right now, Fox, Gallup approval and Rasmussen approval take up a significant portion of the survey. Most of the firms that tend to make things look good for Kerry, Zogby, ARG and CBS, do not have recent enough polls to be included in the calculation.
Will Gipperporn have a bigger payoff for Bush? I suppose we will see as new polls are released during the week. If he goes up any higher, quite a few light blue states on my map over at MyDD will start turning pink.
Posted at 11:03 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati
Comments
It's pretty creepy that the best bit of "good" news for George Bush in a long while is actually a funeral. Yikes. Anyhow, I really can't believe that any Reagan-related bounce (should one appear) will last very long.
Posted by: DavidNYC at June 15, 2004 01:56 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment