« Appeals Court Puts up Roadblock to Yucca Mountain Plan | Main | General Election Cattle Call, July 12 »

Sunday, July 11, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, July 11

Posted by Chris Bowers

(7/8 Results in Parenthesis)

National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.04 (52.42)
Bush: 47.96 (47.58)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Voe Projection
Kerry: 311 (316)
Bush: 227 (222)
States Changing hands from 2000: FL, NH and OH

The bounce has definately stalled a bit, but I am not worried. With the excessive coverage of the convention around the corner, I still expect Kerry's lead to at least double by the beginning of August. It might even triple!

I continue to make improvements to the formula, which I now believe is finalized. I ran some numbers on the 1996 and 2000 election cycles, and noticed that if I added "direction of the country" numbers and altered the way I determined the dataset, that the predictor was far more stable and guessed the outcome of each election within one half point. I will post a final version of the methodology (which really isn't that different from the one I had been using) on Tuesday.

Posted at 03:11 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati

Comments

A formula with "imporvements." I like it.

Posted by: Brian C.B. at July 11, 2004 08:09 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

from your blog to Gods ear...

thanks for all the work

Posted by: Hubris Sonic at July 12, 2004 05:55 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well done!
I maintain a link to your blog on my site (specifically my election page).
I appreciate your efforts! Keep up the good work!
Chuck

Posted by: Chuck at July 12, 2004 08:13 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment