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Wednesday, May 05, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, May 5: Kerry's First Lead

Posted by Chris Bowers

National Two-Party Popular Vote Projection
Kerry: 50.0
Bush: 50.0

Status: Too Close to Call
Kerry has made up nearly two points as a result of Bushs recent dip in job approval. In particular, the new Q-poll was worse for Bush than the now old Pew poll. Rasmussen is also showing a lower job approval

Electoral Vote Projection:
Kerry: 231
Bush: 227
To Close to Call: 80 (FL, IA, NM, OH, PA)

Kerry is only up two in the latest Oregon poll, but he is nine ahead of Bush on favorable / unfavorable ratings in the state, and Bushs approval ratings are, um, not good (5% rate his performance as excellent). Thus, Oregon is now lean Kerry. Combine this with the latest NH poll, Kerry has taken his first, very slim lead in the two weeks I have been calculating the GECC.

Posted at 02:57 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati