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Friday, June 04, 2004
General Election Cattle Call, June 4 Revised
Posted by Chris BowersNational Two-Party Popular Vote
Kerry: 51.42
Bush: 48.58
Status: Too Close to Call
Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 316
Bush: 222
States Changing Hands form 2000: FL, NV, NH and OH
Today, after publishing an admittedly thin GECC, I came across new Annenberg job approval and favorable numbers (Warning: PDF File). This wiped away almost all the May data, and significantly reduced the size of the dataset. With what was left, Bush had gained enough on Kerry to make the calculation ���too close to call.���
This is the first time the race has not been ���lean Kerry��� in almost four weeks. If the election were tomorrow, I would guess that Kerry would win. However, that is all it would be: a guess. Kerry holds paper-thin leads in Ohio and Florida, and if he lost both Bush would win in the House of Representatives after a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College. I suppose that would be fitting for Bush: winning re-election in an even less democratic way than he won the Presidency the first time.
I was hoping that the race would swing to ���solid Kerry��� before it went back to ���too close to call��� again, and that Kerry would soon hold a lead of seven points or greater in more than 269 electoral votes worth of states. However, it was not to be, and the race has returned to the toss-up it was for ten straight weeks after Super Tuesday. Perhaps it is a good thing, as always seeing things go your way can lead to complacency.
Posted at 09:14 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati
Comments
Your numbers do not take Ralph Nader into consideration. He will certainly be on the ballot in most of the swing states and polls show him polling very well (20-25%) among independents and undecideds in some states like PA, OR, MN, WI, while only 3-4% in the population as a whole.
Why do I support Ralph Nader and NOT John Kerry? Primarily because Ralph isn't a self serving hypocrite like Kerry.
John Kerry, man of the common folk.... he understands your pain, really... trust him - lol, yeah - right ~
The many homes of Democrat Presidential candidate, John F. Kerry.
Fox Chapel, Pennsylvania ��(Assessed value: $3.7 million)
Ketchum, Idaho ski getaway/vacation home ��(Assessed value: $4.916 million)
Washington, D.C - Georgetown area (assessment: $4.7 million)
Nantucket, Massachusetts waterfront retreat on Brant Point (Assessed value: $9.18 million)
Boston, Massachusetts ��- Beacon Hill home (Assessed value: $6.9)
Oh, and he sold this estate in Italy to George Clooney, just before announcing his running for president. ��I guess he thought it might not sit well with the common man. ��($7.8 million)
Other foreign property ownership by John Kerry is unknown... because he denied repeated requests for this information.
Class warfare is not right, but neither is being a hypocrite. ��This man wants to be president, while claiming that he relates to Joe-6-pack and the common man.
Posted by: Mark Bennett at June 7, 2004 06:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Class warfare is not right, but neither is being a hypocrite. This man wants to be president, while claiming that he relates to Joe-6-pack and the common man.
Neither class warfare nor hypocrisy is of any great importance in this election. The question you have to ask yourself is "Who do I want to be president?" Obviously, you'd like Ralph Nader to be president. That's fine, perhaps I'd like Bill Clinton to be president, or John Edwards, or Mario Cuomo.
That clearly isn't going to happen, and not just because they're not running for the office (or are ineligible). As you recognize yourself, Nader's capacity is to draw circa 5% of the vote, and that means there is absolutely no chance that he can be elected president despite the fact that he's eligible, despite the fact that he's running, despite the fact that he'll be on the ballot in a fair number of states, and despite the fact that you want him to be.
There are two, exactly two and only two people who have any chance of being elected to the presidency, and they are George W. Bush and John F. Kerry. What you need to do is decide which one of those two men you'd prefer to see in the White House.
If you believe in the liberal principles of democratic governance and transparency that have guided Ralph Nader across his long and (until recently) distinguished career, then, in my opinion, you have only one reasonable and logical choice, and that is to vote for Kerry, because it is beyond dispute that Bush stands for exactly the opposite.
Anything that you do, including voting for Nader, that serves to return Bush to the Oval Office is a repudiation of the princples that you are supposedly endorsing by proclaiming your support for Nader, and that is much more serious and dangerous that any penny-ante hypocrisy on Kerry's part, because it could well help Bush out, just as the votes for Nader in Florida did in 2000.
This is not a multiple-choice situation, this is an either/or question. You want to opt for another solution, but it's just not available to you, I'm afraid, not if you're really serious about what you say your beliefs are.
This is the real world, and you've got to cope with that fact.
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at June 7, 2004 10:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Oh, by the way, I should point out that it's interesting that someone supposedly backing Nader should be parroting the latest GOP attack on Kerry.
That's a pretty trollish thing to do, isn't it.
Mea culpa.
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at June 7, 2004 10:24 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment