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Thursday, September 09, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, September 9

Posted by Chris Bowers

(9/4 Results in Parenthesis)

National Popular Vote Projection
Bush: 49.43 (50.30)
Kerry: 48.57 (47.70)
Other: 2.00 (2.00)
Status: Toss-up

Electoral College Projection
Kerry: 291, 179 solid (254, 169)
Bush: 247, 196 solid (184, 194)
States Changing Hands from 2000: FL and NH to Kerry
States Projected By Less Than Three Points: NV and OH for Bush (26); FL, IA, ME CD-2, NH, NM, OR, PA and WI (82)

Kerry holds a lead in the Electoral College largely due to a weird statistical quirk. While Bush is ahead in the national vote projection (49.43-48.57), solid EVs (196-179), EV's by more than three (221-205), right now I project almost every single close state to swing Kerry's way. There would be some sweet justice in such a result, and hopefully, if this did take place, it would finally lead to some serious electoral reform in this country (although that would be unlikely).

The scenario is actually more likely that many of us realize. While most recent polls have shown Bush ahead nationally, Zogby, Rasmussen and Gallup all showed Kerry with a lead in the "battleground." One problem with Bush's strategy of solidifying his base while Kerry goes after swing voters is that while it will probably lead to red states looking a lot more strong and blue ones, it also concedes Kerry an advantage in the legally binding purple states.

I calculated these results before the new CBS and ABC polls that will be out in full by tonight or tomorrow morning, which probably means that Bush will move back ahead tomorrow. These figures also do not include the new Rasmussen state polls that will be coming out later today.

Posted at 01:44 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati

Comments

In spite of what the media says, this election is too close to call. The media loves to overreact. The latest polls show that the Bush dead cat bounce has pretty much run its course.

Fox: 9/7-8 Bush 47%, Kerry 45%.
Rasmussen: 9/6-9/8 Bush 47.5%, Kerry 46.8%.

Posted by: DFuller at September 9, 2004 02:30 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

CBS News: 9/6-8 RVs - 49 - 42 Bush

Posted by: David at September 9, 2004 03:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Chris---how is it even remotely possible to trust any poll out of Florida this week (or next week). The number of people without power is huge, and people have better things to do than talk to pollsters. I would predict a huge Kerry surge next week in tracking polls after the hurricane hits the west coast or panhandle....

Posted by: science at September 9, 2004 06:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Oddly enough, analysis of state-by-state polling data does not support the idea that Kerry is down by much in the way that counts - electoral votes. See my statistical analysis at

http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html

Essentially, the electoral college is nearly tied right now. If you go to my history graph you will see that my calculation has a lot of power to resolve events. I haven't posted the recent bounce yet, but it's not that large. Stay tuned.

Posted by: Sam Wang at September 9, 2004 07:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Science:

It sounds like you are hoping the hurricane hits Florida. I agree with you on your analysis concerning Florida polling this week. However, I am sure both Republicans and Democrats did not have power this week. Also, the panhandle is more republican than Democrat??????

Posted by: David at September 9, 2004 08:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Am I totally nuts, or does the guy on the side of the Patriots helmet bear a striking resemblance to a certain Senator from Mass. running for President? Is this the omen we have been waiting for? All hail the Pats!!!!

Posted by: NE_Patriots at September 9, 2004 09:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

And isn't ironic that the Patriots, decked out in their prophetic helmets, are playing a team tonight that has a horseshoe on the side of IT'S helmet, the symbol that probably best symbolizes the political career of GWB!

Posted by: NE_Patriot at September 9, 2004 09:44 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Chris--I have a question about your methodology. You have CO as a solid (more than 3 pt. lead) Bush state. Yet every poll in the past 3-4 months has been either tied or had Kerry leading; in no case has Bush ever been above 47, and Hispanic turnout will be much bigger due to the Senate race (making likely voter models overly GOP). It seems as if CO is a more likely blue than any other Bush2000 state except NH---could you explain how your methodology works (this is the only one that puzzles me...).

Posted by: science at September 12, 2004 10:09 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

GOP bounce fading fast:

From Rasmussen Sept 11 (Sept 4):

Right Track: 40 (44%)
Wrong Track: 56 (52%)


Battleground States:
Bush 47 (48%)
Kerry 47 (45%)

Posted by: DFuller at September 13, 2004 10:33 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

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Posted by: Roy at November 12, 2004 12:05 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment