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Wednesday, May 12, 2004
General Election Cattle Call, May 12: Kerry Widens Lead
Posted by Chris BowersProjected National Two-Party Vote
Kerry: 50.5
Bush: 49.5
Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 231
Bush: 227
Too close to call: 80
Obviously, Kerry is not pounding Bush into the ground, but this is still his widest lead since I began these measurements. Considering the current trend, it is quite possible that Kerry will receive a slight lean in the race before Bush does (the first three weeks have all been too close to call).
Kos quotes a Democratic pollster who argues that Kerry is much closer to Bush than any challenger has been to an incumbent in many decades. Personally, I suspected this was true, but did not have access to the historical data to prove that point.
I still feel the dam is about to burst for Bush, and Kerry will be up big by the end of June.
Posted at 05:00 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati
Comments
Damn good article...thanks.
Posted by: steve at May 12, 2004 05:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I assume your 80 too close to call votes represent Florida, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennysylvania and Iowa?
Do you have that posted somewhere? if not, can you include the name of the states in your "toss up" list?
Thanks. Great work, incidentally, I've been citing you regularly on my blog, unfutz.
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at May 13, 2004 12:32 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment