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Thursday, June 10, 2004
General Election Cattle Call, June 10
Posted by Chris Bowers(Yesterday's results in parenthesis)
National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.10 (52.19)
Bush: 47.90 (47.81)
Status: Lean Kerry
Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 301 (321)
Bush: 237 (217)
States Chaing Hands from 2000: FL, NV, NH and WV
I know it doesn't make any sense on the surface, but the first trial heat in a month that shows Kerry ahead of Bush in Ohio actually caused the state to shift from Kerry to Bush. The reason for this is that I use the central mean in my calculations. Adding another poll and a job rating in the state caussed the previous polls showing Bush ahead to take on more value in the Ohio calculation, while the poll showing Kerry ahead was given relatively little value. Also, ARG's Ohio poll (with its extremely high Bush unfavorables) has been removed from the Ohio calculation, giving Bush a very small lead in the state.
I currently calculate that in 15 states Bush and Kerry are separated by less than five points: Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, New Hampshire, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia and Wisconsin. The battleground appears to range all over, without any single region being the key.
Posted at 03:41 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati