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Tuesday, July 06, 2004
General Election Cattle Call, July 6: Final Pre-Edwards Edition
Posted by Chris Bowers(Cross-Posted from MyDD)
National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 51.38
Bush: 48.62
Status: Too close to call
Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 291
Bush: 247
States changing hands from 2000: FL and NH to Kerry
This will be the final GECC that does not include post-Edwards data. In fact, I expect the polling to be so fast and furious that all pre-Edwards data might be removed from the dataset as early as Saturday.
Over the past two weeks I have made some slight changes to the formula in order to account for current events:
1-No polls that include Nader are included in the formula, except in the states where he seems certain to be on the ballot.
2-For at least the rest of the summer, only national trial heats of ���registered��� voters will be included. Likely voter models, at this stage, are too prone to tampering and inaccuracy.
3-In order to account for the third-party influence on the race, 2 points will be deducted from all Bush disapproval numbers.
4-The partisan index for North Carolina will be set at 8.0, since five and a half points appears to be roughly the historic boost a VP brings to his / her home state.
July will be great month for Kerry. However, no matter what crap Dowd is trying to sell, do not expect his lead to ever surpass ten points. Frankly, I do not think it is possible for either candidate to win this election by more than 13 points, and I do not think it is possible for any candidate to (accurately) poll more than ten points ahead. If Kerry takes a ten-point lead, then he will have maximized his VP and convention ���bounce.���
Kerry won the first phase of the general election campaign. In the second phase, he seems to be off to a roaring start.
Posted at 12:56 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati
Comments
I don't know about Florida, only because, as the old saying goes "it ain't in the votin', its in the countin'..." Jeb controls the levers of State gov't there; already 48,000 voters have been 'purged' as felons & a local Florida newspaper has on first glance found 2,000 + errors. If the "countin" is more accurate this time {there is a book called "Jews for Buchannan" which shows that 2,000 seniors in heavily Jewish areas thought they voted for Gore but was recorded for Buchannan), then yes Florida goes to Kerry/Edwards.
But I think Ohio, W. Virignia, Arkansas (31 Electoral votes) go Dem this time;
Louisiana, Colorado, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina & Virginia are on the table.
Posted by: Robert at July 6, 2004 01:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I just wanted to comment that Kerry is such a jerk - how can anyone vote for him. He says keep jobs at home, yet his wife has 60 companies overseas! Also, what good is the economy if we get nuked? We won't care about education or jobs if we are at war which we will be if Kerry is elected - wake up OHIO. The main worry on everyone's mind should be leadership in
these terrible times which Bush has demonstrated. Kerry has demonstarted that he will sway with the tide - God help us if he gets in. We will be at war within 2 years.
Posted by: Marge at October 19, 2004 02:03 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Marge,
Bush's slogan should be:
"I never made a campaign promise that I kept."
1) He promised he wouldn't go to war without an exit strategy.
2) He promised he wouldn't use our troops in nation building.
3) He promised that he would not touch the Social Security surplus.
4) He promised that he would allow you to invest part of your own Social Security.
5) He promised that his tax cuts would produce over 5 million new jobs.
6) He promised to be a uniter. On September 12, 2001 the country was united. He used the unity to push through a right wing agenda onto America. Congress felt that the Patriot Act went way too far and tried to change it. A bi-partisan vote to change it was vetoed by Bush.
7) You talk about nuclear bombs. Do you feel more secure today with North Korea and Iran producing nuclear weapons? While North Korea was starting to produce nukes, Bush was focused on going after Iraq and completely ignored North Korea.
8) Do you like an occupier of the White House who refuses to admit to his mistakes? After invading Iraq, he left weapons dumps unsecured but secured the oil wheels. I guess that showed where his priorities were. They weren���t protecting the troops on the ground, but the oil wells.
9) You need to do a little research instead of just listening to Rush all day:
Heinz Ketchup that is sold in the United States is made in the United States.
Teresa Heinz Kerry is not on the board of directors of Heinz.
Teresa holds 20.4 million shares HNZ. There are a total of 349.45 million shares outstanding. She only owns 5.8% of the company.
Posted by: DFuller at October 19, 2004 02:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
It is also kind of ironic to here someone say that Kerry will be putting us into wars and causing us to get nuked.
Who was the person who was occupying the White House when the inspectors were pulled out of Iraq and started dropping bombs?
Who has refused to acknowledge that Iraq had nothing to do with September 11th?
Who was the one who was too busy preparing to invade Iraq to worry about North Korea enriching fuel rods?
Posted by: DFuller at October 19, 2004 02:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
marge is lying.
In order
-- Kerry's wife does not own 60 companies overseas.
-- HJ Heinz does hold companies overseas, but Teresa does not control Heinz any more. Heinz actually donated to Republican candidates, and the late Senator Heinz was himself a Republican
--- Heinz sells its products throughout the world. If it didn't have companies abroad, it wouldn't be able to sell products abroad.
Posted by: erg at October 19, 2004 02:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Marge states:
"God help us if he gets in. We will be at war within 2 years."
As opposed to not being at war right now?? Tell me Marge, do you not classify Iraq and Afghanistan as "war"? Or perhaps the proper terminology in your circles is "crusade". Clarify, please.
She further exhibits her incredible reasoning skills with this gem:
"Also, what good is the economy if we get nuked?"
Wow!! Bush will ensure an American city is never nuked by continuing to do a dazzling job on border and port security. Is it not a fact that 95% of cargo coming into U.S. ports is currently not inspected? Is it not also a fact that John Kerry has promised to address this serious breach of domestic security within months of taking office? (I hate the term "Homeland" security. It sounds so lame and political driven). Just some food for thought, folks. Don't want to allow Marge to corner the market on Presidential policy wisdom.
Posted by: bigguy at October 19, 2004 03:37 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Marge again:
"The main worry on everyone's mind should be leadership in
these terrible times which Bush has demonstrated."
Whaaaaaaaa???
I agree that ppl. should be worried about leadership in these "terrible" times. I am just confused on how Bush has demonstrated terrible times. I assume you are speaking of his debate performances, in which he clearly was having "terrible" times.
Perhaps you just need some help with your grammer. Let me rephrase it for you to better help us understand your point.
"The main worry on everyone's mind should be leadership. Bush has had a terrible time demonstrating this."
Hope that helps clarify your point, Marge. No charge this time, but remember to support your public school when you think of me....
Posted by: bigguy at October 19, 2004 03:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment