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Saturday, August 14, 2004
General Election Cattle Call, August 14
Posted by Chris Bowers(8/7 results in parenthesis)
National Two Party Popular Vote Projection
Kerry: 51.80 (52.99)
Bush: 48.20 (47.01)
Status: Lean Kerry
Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 327, 220 solid (312, 231)
Bush: 211, 133 solid (226, 118)
States Chaing Party Hands from 2000: FL, MO, NH, OH and WV to Kerry
States Projected by Less than Three Points: AR, NV and NC for Bush (26); MO, NM, OH, WV and WI for Kerry (51)
As happens fairly frequently, even though one candidate, in this case Kerry, went down in the national two-party vote projection, he went up in the electoral vote projection. Kerry took back Ohio but lost Nevada, even though Bush gained significantly in the national vote projection with the removal of the July 30-August 1st post-convention polls from the dataset. Bush did solidify his electoral base, however, pushing GA back to solid red, and pushing AZ, CO, LA, TN and VA back above the 3.0 daner line. The opposite happened to Kerry, as Maine's 2nd congressional district and Minnesota lost their solid status, while New Mexico and Wisconsin moved into the danger zone.
Even though Bush is still close, considering that undecideds usually break for the challenger, his position is not very strong at all. Any state not in "solid" Bush territory is ripe for a Kerry pickup.
I have updated the Methodology for these projections over at MyDD.
Posted at 03:12 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati
Comments
For those interested, I've posted my latest survey of Electoral College tracking / prediction / projection / forecast sites here.
Executive summary: of the 36 sites surveyed, 26 show Kerry winning, and 5 others show him ahead. Five sites show Bush winning. Kerry averages around 300 votes.
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at August 15, 2004 02:38 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Ed, that link is busted.
Posted by: DavidNYC at August 15, 2004 04:05 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Sorry about the typo in the URL. The correct address is
http://unfutz.blogspot.com/2004/08/electoral-college-survey-815.html
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at August 15, 2004 05:04 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment