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Wednesday, August 25, 2004
General Election Cattle Call, August 25
Posted by Chris Bowers(Previous Results in Parenthesis)
National Popular Vote Projection
Kerry: 51.83 (51.42)
Bush: 46.17 (46.58)
Status: Lean Kerry
Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 322, 211 solid (327, 213)
Bush: 216, 142 solid (211, 133)
States Changing Hands from 2000: FL, MO, NH and OH to Kerry
States Currently Under Three Points: AR, CO, NV, and TN for Bush (31); FL, MO and OH for Kerry (58)
So, Bush lost ground in the popular vote, but gained ground in the electoral vote, even to the point where Kerry no longer has 270 EV's projected by more than three points. Go figure. In a normal Democracy, gaining ground among the electorate at large would mean that you were closing to winning, rather than the other way around. Also interestingly, who would have ever thought that AR, CO and TN would be among the seven closest states?
Kerry still looks good though, since the electoral projection distributes undecideds equally between Bush and Kerry. If Kerry were to receive even 60% of the undecideds (likely), than he would win AR, TN and NV, and take FL, MO and OH comfortably. 344 electoral votes would be fine by me!
Posted at 04:39 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati
Comments
Badnarik is polling 1% in FL. If he can get some more media attention, then he could take enough votes from Bush to deliver FL to Kerry and get the neocons out of the WH.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Florida%20August%2024.htm
Posted by: Wilson97 at August 25, 2004 09:17 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
you guys might want to check out the conservative paper(chuckling), The LA Times, new poll out tonight. Ciao
Posted by: Allan Bartlett at August 25, 2004 11:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I got your LA Times poll right here.
Posted by: Chris Bowers at August 26, 2004 12:35 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Hey! Anyone remember when Republicans and the right were incensed because the LA Times poll was so biased, back when it showed Kerry ahead?
Strangely, they appear to have forgiven them their sins, even though I'm not aware that the Times changed their supposedly flawed methodology one iota.
A quick look at the Polling Report summary shows that since the beginning of August, in 21 different polling situations Kerry leads 16 of them, by an average of 4.7 points, while Bush leads in just 4 by an average of of under 2.75 points, and one is tied.
I dunno, I'm no expert, but that doesn't look to me like the place a supposedly popular incumbent should be at.
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at August 26, 2004 05:55 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Agreed Ed, but you have to admit, being this close after being under four years of Emperor George's imperial rule, is a little nerve racking.
Posted by: Michael at August 26, 2004 09:48 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Chris,
I respect your research and your passion. Again, I hope you are right and the historical trends come through. A few things though...
1) I think the current political landscape is different than in anytime over the last 50 years. Yes we have had wars since then, but not an attack on American soil along with it. The fear of those attacks recurring exists and ultimately, even though logic should prevail, emotions are highly influencing some voters decisions in this regard. You are David have said, Americans tend to vote with emotional swings. If not for the 9-11 attacks, I would be happily agreeing with your assessment, but those attacks bring forth a new dynamic that really doesn't have a historical equal (except Pearl Harbor...however, I think our mindset in that situation was a lot different than current day as fighting World War II was not the same as forcing our troops to fight an unjust oil war).
Also, historical trends have a habit of being broken. For instance, most people can look at the economic models and predict a winner, yet in 2000 all the models went for Gore. Also, as much as had been made about Ohio and Missouri usually siding with the presidential winner, Delaware was in a similiar status (last 40-50 years) until the 2000 election. The CV is a peace time nominee from the incumbent party in a good economic climate should easily win. The CV is that the incumbent will lose congressional members to the other party at Mid term elections.
What I am pointing out is that yes, trends get broken and also, Bush has a nasty habit of breaking these trends. You can't just assume that everything will fall in place.
Ultimately, you need to cut those of us who get a little nervous some slack. After four years of Bush, the thought of another term makes me ill. DO I think Kerry will win? YES. Do I think he needs to step up his campaign and change a little bit of what he is saying to combat some of the perceptions that surround him such as his supposed indecisiveness? YES. Do negative Poll Numbers make me a bit nervous after a major attack tactic that has successfully taken out opponents in the past? YES. Does this fear make me want to quit supporting Kerry? NO. It makes me want to fight all the harder. Optimism is a wonderful thing and it has its place in a group, but sometimes optimism leads to complacency. Sometimes fear is a great motivator; as long as we work through our fears. That is the most important thing to take out of your posts and research. It is OK to be a little nervous, just remember that this means we need to keep working hard to keep the object of our fears (Not a Kerry loss, but a Bush win) from achieving his goals.
Posted by: Michael at August 26, 2004 10:14 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I'll feel a lot more confident about Kerry winning IF the polls are still tied after the GOP convention (i.e., little or no bounce). I think what's going on is that the GOP has finally realized that they are too far to the right and have effectively ceded the centre to Kerry. Now they are trying to move to the center (note Cheney's comments about same-sex relationships and Bush talking about a value-added tax). This convention should be very interesting!
Posted by: Jason at August 26, 2004 12:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I bombed that Allan Bartlett person's blog for trolling here. :-)
Posted by: Inkan1969 at August 26, 2004 02:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Wow! I feel so special - this blog is now worthy of being trolled! :)
Posted by: DavidNYC at August 26, 2004 03:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I appreciate the troll :) What that's saying in Hollywood?....Any publicity is good publicity. I visit all blogs to see who I think has the best layout/content. I complement you on a fine blog. Do you not want conservatives to view it?
Posted by: Allan Bartlett at August 26, 2004 07:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Things don't seem to be looking quite as exciting for Kerry as they were a few weeks ago. Florida is now looking too close to call, even though it looked blue in the early August Quinnipiac poll and in the ARG one before that. West Virginia, Ohio, and Missouri are toss-ups as well.
I still feel positive about this election and I don't feel they'll be able to pull a Dukakis on Kerry...since the country is so polarized, as long as Kerry doesn't make a huge blunder, the election still looks like his. Plus, don't undecideds tend to go for the challenger? Now I just hope for no dirty tricks or faithless electors on November 2!
Thoughts, anyone?
Posted by: Nathaniel at August 27, 2004 12:36 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
And for the first time, I see a poll (LA TIMES) showing Wisconsin now in the Bush column. Florida, Ohio and Missouri are all in the Bush column, too, though only in Ohio is the lead by more than a few percentage points. What's going on? Are the Swift boat ads to blame for this sudden shift in the winds? Those ads seemed to catch Kerry off guard in the way he handled them. All of this going into the Republican convention is making for a very interesting September and October. As I have been saying all along, this campaign will take many twists and turns, and it's going to be this way probably to the very end.
Posted by: Pepe at August 27, 2004 06:53 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
don't undecideds tend to go for the challenger?
I don't know why people are hanging onto this belief other than to make them feel better about Kerry's chances in November. Folks, this may have been true before 9/11, but in a post-9/11 world I wouldn't assume that the vast majority of undecideds will follow past voting trends and all vote for Kerry--and I sure hope Kerry isn't assuming that as well!
Posted by: Pepe at August 27, 2004 06:57 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Think of it this way: undecided voters have had 3+ years to come around to supporting Bush, the fact that they haven't by now makes it more than likely that they'll break for Kerry, even if past history didn't already tell us they will.
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at August 27, 2004 02:15 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
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Posted by: Pete at November 12, 2004 12:12 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment