Here’s something that’s way past due: SSP’s first Open Seat Watch chart of the 2010 cycle. This chart was a recurring feature on the front page here throughout 2007 and the first few months of 2008, and we’ll be sure to keep it updated regularly over the coming months. Just like we did last time, I’ve put together charts tracking confirmed retirements/vacancies, potential retirements, and a new third chart tracking seats that were once considered potentially open, but now are not. Here we go:
| District | Incumbent | Party | Old PVI | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL-07 | Davis, Artur | D | D+16.9 | Running for Governor |
| CA-32 | Solis, Hilda | D | D+16.8 | Appointed Secretary of Labor |
| FL-12 | Putnam, Adam | R | R+5.3 | Running for Ag Commissioner |
| FL-17 | Meek, Kendrick | D | D+35.3 | Running for Senate |
| IL-05 | Emanuel, Rahm | D | D+17.8 | Joined Obama Administration |
| KS-01 | Moran, Jerry | R | R+20.3 | Running for Senate |
| KS-04 | Tiahrt, Todd | R | R+12.2 | Running for Senate |
| MI-02 | Hoekstra, Peter | R | R+9.4 | Retiring/Possible gubernatorial run |
| NY-20 | Gillibrand, Kirsten | D | R+2.5 | Appointed to Senate |
| TN-03 | Wamp, Zach | R | R+8.5 | Running for Governor |
So that’s ten open seats right off the bat — although three of these will soon be filled by special elections. A bit of a dog’s breakfast, but the list should soon grow to include some even better pick-up opportunities.
| District | Incumbent | Party | Old PVI | Age | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-AL | Young, Don | R | R+14.3 | 77 | Age/Legal issues |
| AL-01 | Bonner, Jo | R | R+12.0 | 50 | Possible gubernatorial run |
| AZ-03 | Shadegg, John | R | R+5.9 | 61 | Botched retirement attempt in 2008 |
| CA-24 | Gallegly, Elton | R | R+4.8 | 66 | Botched retirement attempt in 2006 |
| DE-AL | Castle, Mike | R | D+6.5 | 71 | Age/Health/Possible Senate run |
| FL-10 | Young, Bill | R | D+1.1 | 79 | Age |
| FL-13 | Buchanan, Vern | R | R+4.1 | 59 | Possible Senate run |
| FL-14 | Mack, Cornelius | R | R+10.5 | 43 | Possible Senate run |
| FL-22 | Klein, Ron | D | D+3.7 | 53 | Possible Senate run |
| FL-25 | Diaz-Balart, Mario | R | R+4.4 | 49 | Possible Senate run |
| GA-01 | Kingston, Jack | R | R+13.1 | 55 | Possible gubernatorial run |
| GA-03 | Westmoreland, Lynn | R | R+17.6 | 60 | Possible gubernatorial run |
| GA-08 | Marshall, Jim | D | R+8.4 | 62 | Possible gubernatorial run |
| HI-01 | Abercrombie, Neil | D | D+7.0 | 72 | Possible gubernatorial run |
| IL-06 | Roskam, Peter | R | R+2.9 | 49 | Possible Senate run |
| IL-09 | Schakowsky, Jan | D | D+19.7 | 66 | Possible Senate run |
| IL-10 | Kirk, Mark | R | D+3.6 | 51 | Possible Senate run |
| IL-13 | Biggert, Judy | R | R+4.7 | 73 | Age |
| KY-06 | Chandler, Ben | D | R+6.6 | 51 | Possible Senate run |
| LA-03 | Melancon, Charlie | D | R+4.8 | 63 | Possible Senate run |
| MD-06 | Bartlett, Roscoe | R | R+12.8 | 84 | Age |
| MI-01 | Stupak, Bart | D | R+2.4 | 58 | Possible gubernatorial run |
| MI-08 | Rogers, Mike | R | R+1.9 | 47 | Possible gubernatorial run |
| MI-10 | Miller, Candice | R | R+4.4 | 56 | Possible gubernatorial run |
| MO-06 | Graves, Sam | R | R+4.8 | 46 | Possible Senate run |
| MO-07 | Blunt, Roy | R | R+14.3 | 60 | Possible Senate run |
| NC-11 | Shuler, Heath | D | R+7.1 | 38 | Possible Senate run |
| NV-02 | Heller, Dean | R | R+8.2 | 50 | Possible gubernatorial run |
| NY-03 | King, Peter | R | D+2.1 | 66 | Possible Senate run |
| OH-13 | Sutton, Betty | D | D+6.4 | 47 | Possible Senate run |
| OH-17 | Ryan, Tim | D | D+14.2 | 37 | Possible Senate run |
| OH-18 | Space, Zack | D | R+6.1 | 49 | Possible Senate run |
| OK-04 | Cole, Tom | R | R+12.9 | 61 | Possible gubernatorial run |
| OK-05 | Fallin, Mary | R | R+11.9 | 55 | Possible gubernatorial run |
| OR-02 | Walden, Greg | R | R+11.3 | 53 | Possible gubernatorial run |
| OR-04 | DeFazio, Peter | D | D+0.1 | 63 | Possible gubernatorial run |
| PA-06 | Gerlach, Jim | R | D+2.2 | 55 | Possible gubernatorial run |
| PA-08 | Murphy, Patrick | D | D+3.4 | 37 | Possible Senate run |
| PA-11 | Kanjorski, Paul | D | D+5.5 | 73 | Age/2008 scare |
| PA-13 | Schwartz, Allyson | D | D+8.0 | 62 | Possible Senate run |
| SC-01 | Brown, Henry | R | R+9.6 | 74 | Age/2008 scare |
| SC-03 | Barrett, Gresham | R | R+14.1 | 49 | Possible gubernatorial run |
| SD-AL | Herseth, Stephanie | D | R+10.0 | 39 | Possible gubernatorial run |
| TX-04 | Hall, Ralph | R | R+17.1 | 87 | Age |
| TX-10 | McCaul, Mike | R | R+13.0 | 48 | Possible AG run |
| WI-01 | Ryan, Paul | R | R+2.2 | 40 | Possible Senate run |
Just to be clear here, “age” refers to the incumbent’s age on election day, 2010. (If I have fudged any birthdays by accident, please let me know in the comments.) And once Charlie Cook bakes some new PVIs, I’ll swap out the old numbers in our chart.
| District | Incumbent | Party | Old PVI | Age | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA-31 | Becerra, Xavier | D | D+30.5 | 52 | Declined USTR/Commerce Sec’y |
| CT-03 | DeLauro, Rosa | D | D+11.8 | 67 | Considered for Labor Sec’y |
| FL-02 | Boyd, Allen | D | R+2.2 | 65 | Declined Senate run |
| KS-03 | Moore, Dennis | D | R+4.2 | 64 | Declined Senate run/Won’t retire |
| MO-08 | Emerson, Jo Ann | R | R+11.0 | 60 | Declined Senate run |
| PA-07 | Sestak, Joe | D | D+3.6 | 58 | Declined Senate run |
| TN-04 | Davis, Lincoln | D | R+3.2 | 67 | Declined gubernatorial run |
| TX-17 | Edwards, Chet | D | R+17.7 | 58 | Declined VA Sec’y |
If there are any names that I am missing, please share ’em (and your rationale/sourcing) in the comments. Thank you.
CA-45 – Hubby is on another state.
NY-23 – McHugh is always rumoured to be retiring.
IA-04 – Senate run?
OH-12 – Age?
VA-10 – Age?
Isn’t Anthony Wiener a rumored candidate for NYC mayor?
We have the numbers available for most districts right now, we just need to work out PVIs.
That said, I suck at calculating PVI (I just horribly misexplained it yesterday) but I’m willing to help out if somebody’s willing to check my figures and I suspect plenty of others are.
IA-03: Leonard Boswell
TX-03: Sam Johnson
Both for age reasons?
Murphy said he was out.
Paul Broun is rumored to be challenging Isakson in the Senate Primary.
Sounds like Hodes is in for Senate.
http://unionleader.com/article…
that Connie Mack’s real name is Cornelius.
That is all.
Is there a specific age cutoff you are using to decide whether or not to include someone on the watch list? If so, what is it?
Woo hoo. They are the top 2 pickup opportunities in ’10.
1. Hodes
2. Carnahan
And Hodes is getting in because he wants to clear the field, and he should. Once he shows he’s in it, I think state leadership and DSC leadership will line up quickly behind him. I hope Shea-Porter, Swett, and Marchand join his team.
There’s a fair amount of speculation that Tom McClintock in CA-04, who won a 50.3-49.7 election in 2008 and doesn’t actually live within several hundred miles of the district, may run for Governor in 2010 (Ahnold is termed-out), or if Feinstein runs for Governor (appears less likely), McClintock could run for Senate instead
Is this normal?
I mean, for example:
Colorado: Ken Salazar is elected in 2004 as junior senator. Mark Udall is elected in 2008 as junior senator, making Salazar senior. Salazar resigns in 2009 to join Obama’s cabinet, making Udall senior senator after having been junior for a week or so, and Bennet becomes junior.
Virginia: now-junior-senator Jim Webb defeats former junior senator George Allen in 2006. Then John Warner leaves and Mark Warner becomes junior senator in 2008, meaning that Webb is now the senior senator after having served only two years.
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen is only going to be the junior senator from New Hampshire until Judd Gregg leaves and Bonnie Newman will become the junior senator then, making Shaheen the senior after serving for about a month as junior.
We might see something similar in Alaska if Murkowski gets knocked out.
Sam Johnson, TX will be 80
Howard Coble, NC will be 79
Jerry Lewis, CA will be 76, in House since 1978
David Dreier, CA money down to $1 million. Prospects limited (openly known to be gay). Likes expensive clothes. Strikes me as a lobbyisat in training.
Danny Burton, IN will be 72
Vern Ehlers, MI will be 76
Joe Pitts, PA, will be 71 and has one rumored retirement in the past.
Chris Smith, NJ-4 will be only 57 but will have 30 years in the House and is too moderate to be listened to in GOP circles. Got to be frustrated.