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SSP Releases Presidential Results for All 435 Congressional Districts

by: Crisitunity

Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 5:02 PM EDT


Swing State Project is pleased to announce a final and official tally of the presidential election results in all 435 congressional districts. As you might recall, when we last left off a few weeks ago, we were still six districts shy, with only Nassau County, NY and Tuscaloosa County, AL outstanding. With these last few counties relinquishing their data, we can wrap up those last few districts, making Swing State Project the first outlet anywhere, blogosphere or elsewhere, to provide a full public release of presidential election results by CD... not just of percentages, but a transparent display of the underlying precincts, if you're interested in delving that deep. If you want to bookmark the summary of the percentages for all districts for future reference, click here.

If you're looking for additional detail about previously-discussed districts, see waves one, two, three, four, five, and six. For a truly ridiculous level of detail, each state's database is accessible through our master database.

DistrictObama # McCain #Other #2008 %2004 %2000 %
AL-0674,657243,4652,62523.3/75.922/7825/74
AL-07179,22767,55489572.4/27.364/3566/33
NY-02164,106125,9782,27256.1/43.153/4557/39
NY-03149,995164,6822,65447.3/51.947/5252/44
NY-04171,346122,1661,94558.0/41.455/4459/38
NY-05128,27673,1431,43163.2/36.163/3667/30

As you can see, AL-06 was one of our roughest districts, in about a three-way tie with AL-04 and TX-13 for worst Obama performance. And while Obama won Nassau County on Long Island by a decent margin, he didn't improve on Kerry's numbers by much. In fact, the 2008 numbers in both NY-03 (the Republican part of Long Island, relatively speaking) and NY-05 (a mix of Nassau County's wealthiest areas and working-class white and Asian parts of Queens) matched the 2004 numbers exactly. The more diverse NY-02 and NY-04 saw larger improvements.

As with the last few waves, our commitment to accuracy compels us to issue a few more minor adjustments as we've refined our databases and/or gotten newer numbers. And, for one last time, thanks to jeffmd, Democratic Luntz, californianintexas, Benawu, Benjamin Johnstone-Anderson, and all the other SSP contributors who helped out anonymously... you all put the "crowd" in crowdsourcing.

DistrictObama # McCain #Other #Updated %What
we'd said
AL-03119,489156,0752,08643.0/56.242.9/56.4
HI-01152,99061,1163,10370.4/28.170.1/28.1
HI-02172,88159,4504,02873.1/25.272.8/25.0
MS-01134,066217,6713,47537.7/61.337.8/62.2
MS-02196,582100,2111,70865.9/33.666.4/33.6
MS-03130,793209,2552,57138.2/61.137.8/62.2
MS-0493,221197,4602,85231.8/67.332.0/68.0
TN-0175,255182,4993,83628.8/69.828.8/69.8
TN-02104,166195,1464,58634.3/64.234.3/64.2
TN-03103,878174,3723,60336.9/61.936.9/61.9
TN-0492,964173,8924,58134.3/64.134.2/64.0
TN-05166,231127,7953,62055.9/42.955.7/43.1
TN-06112,575190,3644,73936.6/61.936.6/61.9
TN-07121,272229,0683,37434.3/64.834.4/64.6
TN-08112,943148,0503,33842.7/56.042.7/56.1
TN-09198,15357,9931,45676.9/22.577.4/22.1
Crisitunity :: SSP Releases Presidential Results for All 435 Congressional Districts
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Congratulations!
Extremely impressive job to compile and publish these numbers.  You and all who worked on this deserve great praise and recognition for your efforts.

As I suspected
In Nassau County, our gains were mainly in minority areas (Hempstead, Uniondale, Freeport) which are all in NY-04. However I am actually pleasantly surprise to see the numbers steady in NY-03 and NY-05...in both cases, I thought we'd lose ground there.

We actually did marginally better in Nassau County than in 2004...Obama won 54%-45%, which is about where I'd expect the county to be. Hillary Clinton probably could've pushed 60%, there was a big PUMA effect on Long Island, but in reality, the PUMAs just didn't show up. I know of at least five people in Nassau County who supported Clinton and didn't vote in November...but these were all people who voted Bush in 2004 and are more conservative than most Democrats.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens


Congratulations
I can't claim to have contributed much towards this effort and certainly haven't done anything in months, but my warm congratulations go out to those who did the hard slog, and I'm proud to have been a (small) part of this.

re-districting NY-03
I was surprised that the LI margins weren't larger, but one plus with these numbers is that come re-districting time we have quite a bit too play with in regards to NY-3 without really having and impact on the other LI districts.  The Nassau portion of NY-2 (middle to upper middle class areas in east-central Nassau) should be moved into NY-3 in return for some GOP areas in the Suffolk portion of NY-3.  Also with Obama's large margin in NY-4 you can flip some areas between the 3rd & 4th (Freeport for Levittown swap) or something along those lines.  With the 3rd likely needing to expand in population it would need to stretch out a bit anyway.

This turns the 3rd more Democratic, makes the 2nd & 4th a bit less so, but still leaves both with a solid Dem advantage even if Israel or McCarthy seek another office or retire.


Even if we do that
our bench is thin in NY-03...our best hopes are a couple of the countywide elected Democrats like Suozzi of Kathleen Rice, the DA. Other that that, most of the districts' elected representatives in state and local government are Republicans, even if we do redraw the district, that's still true.

We can win without redistricting, we just need a bench.

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens


[ Parent ]
the bench
If Suozzi runs he wins, no question about it, but if he wanted it he would have ran already.  Rice is a possibility, though I would give her more of a chance to run in 2012 than next year, simply due to the fact she may not run to run campaigns in back to back years, though the GOP may not even challenge her this year.

I think Mejias would be a strong candidate if he were to run again.

Obviously we need a strong candidate, but re-districting would make things quite a bit easier, especially since the district was pretty much drawn to max out King's support after the last census.  

Sometimes a strong candidate can come out of nowhere, look at Kristen McElroy in the 6th S.D, she came out of nowhere to get within 4 points of Kemp Hannon.    


[ Parent ]
possible candidates for NY-3
Just decided to come up with a list of potential candidates from either side.  This is nothing more than pure speculation and could either be for 2010 or after re-districting in 2012.  This is basically just a list of elected officials on the Nassau side of the 3rd (since it makes up almost 80% of the 3rd, and likely more than that in 2012), without including officials who likely wouldn't run because of age.  Some of these (such as Suozzi) pretty much have no chance of running, just making a list.

Democrats
Nassau County exec Tom Suozzi-  Glen Cove

Nassau County DA Kathleen Rice-  Locust Valley
*New York Assemb  13th district Charles Lavine- Glen Cove

Nassau County Legis 14th district & 06 candidate Dave Mejias- Farmingdale

Nassau County legis Presidob- ing Officer 18th district- Diane Yaturo- Glen Cove

Nassau County Legis 19th district Dave Dennenberg- Merrick

Republicans
NY State senator 8th district Charles Fuschillo- Merrick

*Oyster Bay Town Supervisor John Venditto- Massapequa

Oyster Bay Town clerk & Former 12th district Assemb Steve Labriola  Massapequa Park

New York Assemb 12th district Joe Saladino-Massapequa

New York Assemb 15th district Rob Walker- Hicksville

*Hempstead Town Supervisor Kate Murray- Levittown

Nassau Coutny Legis 12th district Peter Schmitt- Massapequa

*Nassau county legis 15th district Dennis Dunne Sr- Levittown

Nassau county Legis 17th district Ed Mangano-Bethpage

Wildcard  
Nassau county Legis 4th district Denise Ford-  registered as a Democrat, elected as a Republican, however Dems endorsed her back in 07 and while she mostly has caucused with the GOP, has started to do so a bit with the dems.

* Charles Lavine is 61, I'm not sure how old Venditto or Dunne are, but if not over 60 they are close.  Dunne & Kate Murray are from Levittown, which could be pushed into the 4th after re-districting.  

The Republicans bench is a bit deeper, but the Dems bench is stronger (even taking into consideration Suozzi's nearo zero chance of running)


[ Parent ]
Yatauro would be fantastic
I've met her, she would be an outstanding candidate...very conversational and blunt. She'd kick any Republican ass in a message war.

Does Denise Ford live in the district? I know she represents Long Beach and Long Beach is mostly in the district, but I thought she lived in Oceanside.

IMO the most dangerous Republican for that seat would be Fuschillo. He's mighty popular.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens


[ Parent ]
Ford does live in Long Beach
According to her page on the Nassau County website she does live in Long Beach.

I agree Fuschillo would likely be the toughest GOP candidate, he is actually my State Senator.   Not sure how he has done there in his State Senate races, but the fact he is from Merrick may help him a bit in the Democratic heavy areas of south Merrick.

One thing which could limit his chance of running is he would have to give up his State Senate seat to run.  Would he want to give up a fairly safe seat to run for something which would be competitive?  Also would the Republicans want him to run?  The GOP has a slim registration advantage in his state senate district (Obama likely won it). Fuschillo leaving the state Senate to run for Congress would automatically set up a competitive race.  If the GOP has any chance of retaining control in the State Senate they can't afford to lose any more ground (especially on Long Island) so they may not want Fuschillo to run.  

Now one thing that could happen is that Fuschillo's district could become a bit more Republican after redistricting as Kemp Hannon's 6th district is a top target and the Dems would like to make the 6th more Dem either to oust Hannon or to help protect whomever beat him in 2010.  A more GOP 8th Senate district for Fuschillo might reduce some of the concerns the GOP might have of an Open seat in the 8th, but its still going to be a fairly competitive district.  Now if the GOP gets wiped in the State Senate in 2010, they might give up all hope of getting it back and not care all that much about having to defend an open race in a competitive state Senate district.


[ Parent ]
Congrats, guys
Brilliant work.

Yes! Now I can finally compare CA-31 to TX-31
JK. Great work. Insomnia here I come!

Sorry to ask this but
Would there be any way to sort the biggest shifts in districts from 2004 to 2008? That's the only other thing I could imagine this offering. Well that and a map version but I'm getting picky...

[ Parent ]
That's a cool idea
I'm going to start putting together a list of maybe the 10 or 20 Districts that made the biggest shifts from their Kerry vote to their Obama vote and from their '04 Bush vote to their McCain vote.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
Great
Thanks, is the map too hard to draw up? That'd shock the hell out of CQ if this hasn't done that already.

[ Parent ]
Not hard
All we need is a blank CD map.  Now getting one might be hard since I've never seen one.  All the filled maps are colored contiguously, so you can't change just one district very easily.  Get me a blank map and I've done worse coloring in my day.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
Counties and States
All I'm finding are counties and states with the popular and electoral vote of 2000.  Am I missing something?

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
Nevermind
Found it.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
The top two
The two biggest movements towards Dems have to be the two Hawaii districts.  Those districts only went for Kerry and Gore by modest margins and for Obama by >70%.  Obviously this is due to Hawaii being Obama's "2nd home state."  The Cook PVI shifts might be as much as 7 or 8 points more Democratic than they were prior to 2008.

[ Parent ]
Meant to say
I meant to say Obama carried them with >70% of the vote, not by a 70 point margin.  

[ Parent ]
Whoa
Although this should be obvious considering Obama's enormous improvement over Kerry in Indiana as a whole but it is still amazing to see that Obama improved in EVERY Indiana district by at least 7 points topping out with a 13 point improvement in both IN-4 and IN-7.

[ Parent ]
It was even better than that
Obama improved on Kerry in every single county in the state, from urban and suburban central Indiana, the rural southern-leaning Ohio River Valley, the Region, etc., etc.

[ Parent ]
You're very welcome!
Glad I was able to help SSP be the first to display congressional district results for all districts.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


A Map
I have begun work on a map.  The first one will be very basic (just blue for Obama and red for McCain), but I can go from there.

Hell yeah
Gotta love a map.  

[ Parent ]
Al Gore 2000 was the high-water mark in NYC metro area
It looks like in a lot of the Congressional districts in NYC, Long Island, and northern NJ, no Democratic presidential candidate has been able to improve over Al Gore's performance in 2000. This is especially apparent in Staten Island, Long Island, parts of Brooklyn and Queens, and Monmouth and Ocean Counties in NJ. Maybe Al Gore's message played better than Obama's. It's something worth considering, if we want to be able to win NY-03 after Peter King vacates, or win NJ-05 ever.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

Lieberman was part of it
a lot of Obama's and Kerry's problems, specifically in NYC (NY-09 comes to mind) come from Orthodox Jewish voters. Gore won them overwhelmingly in part because he put Lieberman on the ticket. Lieberman created the same effect with Jewish voters in Brooklyn that Obama did among black voters.

Also, it's what I termed Ron Silver syndrome (may he rest in peace), we term it the 9/11 effect...long time Democrats who flipped and now solidly support Republicans because of 9/11.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens


[ Parent ]
I will never understand those people.


[ Parent ]
Most of us won't
but one thing we can't do is pretend they don't exist. We're lucky that at the moment the populace seems to not be heading to the GOP over national security issues, but we have to realize that in the event of another terrorist attack, much like the outrage over AIG is prompting Congress to consider draconing taxes now, another attack may prompt national outrage for warantless wiretapping, torture and more war. That feeling is there and quelled at the moment by a lack of terrorism on our shores and failures in Iraq and Afghanistan.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Perhaps.
But I think the GOP has tapped that well dry. Hopefully we'll never get the opportunity to find out.

[ Parent ]
Ron Silver & the 9/11 effect
Ron Silver supposedly voted for Obama last Nov.
So hopefully the 9/11 effect is gradually wearing away (if that one instance is any indication of anything).

[ Parent ]
Well it did wear away
somewhat. Even though Obama didn't reach Gore's numbers, he exceeded Kerry's. He improved over Kerry big in New Jersey, Westchester and Connecticut and even in parts of Long Island (Suffolk County especially)

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Obama exceeded Kerry's numbers barely
in working class NYC metro while doing a net 10% better nationally.  That is what I call underperforming heavily.  Not as bad as the rural white South, where Obama lost ground from Kerry, but still a rather poor performance.

But the 9/11 effect clearly did begin to wear away.  I think it was symbolized early in September when Bush-endorsing Ed Koch endorsed Obama and said that Palin scared the hell out of him.  


[ Parent ]
Ron Silver died?
Weird.  I never even heard about that till now.  I'm going to miss him making a fool of himself on Real Time with Bill Maher.

[ Parent ]
The reason why the Ron Silver syndrome
didn't result in a Repub majority was because it was counterbalanced by the Jim Webb syndrome, that is Republicans, many of them conservative, who became Democrats because of the Iraq war.  It was also why 46% of military vets voted for a black anti-war Democrat over a war hero Republican.

For those who want to know about Sen Jim Webb before 2003, I would refer you to the following articles and the quotes below in the late 1990s from http://www.jameswebb.com.  I would also mention that Webb considered John Kerry a traitor to this country for his anti-war activities and refused to shake his hand for 30 years, but the neocons so enraged him that he ended up casting a vote for President for a person he considered a traitor.

The rhetoric of the antiwar Left during these debates was filled with condemnation of America's war-torn allies, and promises of a better life for them under the Communism that was sure to follow. Then-Congressman Christopher Dodd typified the hopeless naiveté of his peers when he intoned that "calling the Lon Nol regime an ally is to debase the word.... The greatest gift our country can give to the Cambodian people is peace, not guns. And the best way to accomplish that goal is by ending military aid now." Tom Downey, having become a foreign policy expert in the two months since being freed from his mother's apron strings, pooh-poohed the coming Cambodian holocaust that would kill more than one-third of the country's population, saying, "The administration has warned that if we leave there will be a bloodbath. But to warn of a new bloodbath is no justification for extending the current bloodbath."

At the Georgetown University Law Center where I was a student, the North's blatant discarding of the promises of peace and elections contained in the 1973 Paris Accords, followed by the rumbling of North Vietnamese tanks through the streets of Saigon, was treated by many as a cause for actual rejoicing.

TAE: Speaking of the top, what do you think of Bill Clinton?

MR. WEBB: I cannot conjure up an ounce of respect for Bill Clinton when it comes to the military. Every time I see him salute a Marine, it infuriates me. I don't think Bill Clinton cares one iota about what happens in a military unit.

While the Carter presidency may have handled cases of individual presidential pardons with great care, Mr. Carter's first official act as president was to pardon, en masse, all those who had been or could be charged with draft evasion during the Vietnam era. Motivated by the ever-present desire of American politicians to "heal the wounds" of the Vietnam War, and beyond doubt manipulated by the army of antiwar McGovernites who had seized control of the Democratic Party, Mr. Carter's gesture had the symbolic effect of elevating everyone who had opposed the Vietnam War to the level of moral purist, and by implication insulting those who often had struggled just as deeply with the moral dimensions of the war and had decided, often at great sacrifice, to honor the laws of their country and serve.



[ Parent ]
Yep
Total conversion from Webb. Notice he isn't even one of Bayh's "moderate" group of senators.

[ Parent ]
Wow.
Well, you know conservative movement leaders screwed up badly when someone this strongly on their side gets fed up with them.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Many of those quotes from Webb's articles
could have come from Rush Limbaugh.  When I first heard about Webb thinking of running for the Senate in 2005, the first thing I thought of was the kind of right-wing whackjob that I remembered this guy was and it befuddled me that he would want to run as a Democrat.

The conversion of the Jim Webbs due to their disdain for the neocons is every bit as important to the history of this decade as that of the Ron Silvers.


[ Parent ]
Walter Jones is somewhat similar
He went from being the 'freedom fries' Iraq War hawk to one of the most dovish members of Congress. On the Iraq War at least.

[ Parent ]
I would bet that if Jones didn't represent
a super hard core Repub district like the one he is representing, that he might have switched parties.  There was a lot of rumbling that Jones was considering a party switch in 2007.


[ Parent ]
Also one difference
Jim Webb strongly opposed the Iraq War from the beginning.

[ Parent ]
46% of the military vote went for Obama?
Where did you get that number?  It's fantastic if true.  Obama needs the military on his side in a worst case scenario.

[ Parent ]
I didn't say 46% of active military
I meant 46% of veterans (including all those who served in the military at any time, including now.)

[ Parent ]
Controversy
Theres a real controversy about Obama wanting veterans private health insurance providers to cover the costs of their medical bills. I wonder if thatll really hurt him with vets (and their families) in 2012. But Obama is smart. I think he will find a way to make sure the vets dont pay a dime out of their pocket. Where basically, if their bills go over a certain limit (in the insurance coverage), then the govt will cover the rest. But it seems theyve been silent on it since news broke of this.

[ Parent ]
That idea has been dropped
http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITI...

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Thats good
The right move for him both morally and politically, IMO.

[ Parent ]
top 10 biggest movements toward Obama
HI-01 - D+17.4%
HI-02 - D+17.1%
IN-04 - D+13%
IN-07 - D+12.9%
IN-05 - D+12.2%
NE-02 - D+12%
IN-03 - D+11.8%
IL-08 - D+11.7%
IN-02 - D+11.1%
CA-47 - D+11.1%

Wow
Those Indiana districts blow my mind. I had always figured, minus Evan Bayh on the ticket, that we could win Indiana by 2020, maybe, if we worked hard. That Obama could do it in 2008 is amazing. That he made such huge gains in "red" districts, too, is astonishing.

I'm now firmly in the "Democrats can compete anywhere" camp.


[ Parent ]
Too bad
Too bad we're going to get F'd in the @ss come redistricting in Indiana.  Donnelly and Hill are likely to get very unfavorable districts.

[ Parent ]
Isn't Donnelly the one who won 61-36 on his first election?
I'd imagine he's probably an extremely good campaigner.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
That was Ellsworth IN-08


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
How good is Donnelly?
I see he won 54-46 his first time.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Policy wise?
Donnelly was a Blue Dog last Congress, but has become a lot more progressive this Congress, perhaps because Obama win his district by 9 points after Kerry lost it by double digits, perhaps because he won reelection in a landslide and wasn't even targeted by Republicans.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Donnelly's
I wonder if the GOP would try to merge northern parts of Visclosky and Donnelly's in order to create a much more Democratic district for Visclosky. That, in turn, would make other districts more GOP. And, lets face it, the GOP aint gonna get rid of Visclosky so they might as well make his as Dem as possible. But I dont know how possible itd be to make all of the northern parts of both districts into the same one. There may just be too many people. So creating an East Chicago to Elkhart district may be a stretch. But perhaps to South Bend?

[ Parent ]
Too many people
I still think that's too many people.  I think they're stuck with Donnelly unless they want to endanger Souder.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
They can screw Hill
Bloomington will be a disaster for Hill, but they really can't do too much with Donnelly.  He'll still have South Bend and, even if they force some of IN-03 on him, it'll be places like Elkhart which are purpling...not the heart of the district, I don't think.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
A few of the Indiana repubs underperform
Namely Souder.  I doubt they'll want to water his district down very much considering his underwhelming wins in the past.  That might prevent them from going TOO far in a gerrymander.

[ Parent ]
I suspect they'll mainly try incumbent protection along with ousting Hill
Hill and Donnelly seem to be their only attractive targets, and I think Hill seems more attractive of a target.

However, I have had absolutely no contact with either campaign, so I have no clue how good either of them is at campaigning.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
Yes, probably Hill is the #1 target
And I suspect he would just pull a Bob Ehrlich try to get back at the other side by running for Governor in 2012 instead of standing for re-election.

[ Parent ]
Do we have a bench in IN-09 though?


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Who knows
As far as I'm aware the only republican in the district is Sodrel and the only democrat is Baron Hill.

[ Parent ]
Judging by the maps
On our side, there's a Rep. Sandra Blanton, a couple of Bloomington Reps who will be gone, Rep. Terry Goodin, and three more Reps along the Ohio River (Paul Robertson, Steven Stemler, and Dennie Oxley).  I'm guessing most are quite conservative.  Sens. Connie Sipes, James Lewis, and Richard Young are also in the 9th.  

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
Dennie Oxley?


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Yep
Indiana HD 73 belongs to Oxley.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
Pence
Could Pence conceivably be vulnerable? Obama did quite well there and it has a heavy manufacturing presence. He just is way too fiscally conservative for this kind of district.  

[ Parent ]
The one thing
Is that you're using the rounded 2004 numbers (like that HI-01 was just 52% for Kerry and HI-02 just 55%) when it was obviously something different.
I'm going to the library tomorrow to get the specific numbers for more precise measurements for a diary, but that's a good start.

Here's the (estimated) 11-20
11 IN-06 D+11.1% (Rep Pence)
12 GA-13 D+10.8% (Rep Scott)
13 IL-14 D+10.8% (Rep Foster)
14 TX-15 D+10.8% (Rep Hinojosa)
15 CA-18 D+10.2% (Rep Cardoza)
16 CA-51 D+10.1% (Rep Filner)
17 CA-43 D+9.9% (Rep Baca)
18 TX-28 D+9.9% (Rep Cueller)
19 PA-16 D+9.7% (Rep Pitts)
20 WI-08 D+9.6% (Rep Kagen)

I'll try to have more specific numbers plus Republican-trending districts together tomorrow. If anyone has the exact '04 numbers available now and wants to take over this project, feel free to get on it.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
Congratulations, y'all!
Darn, now I feel bad about not having helped out with this.

Still, y'all are awesome!

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


Just when I think this place couldn't get better
You all go and amaze me again! Congrats to all involved.  

CA
First, thanks for the great resource!

Second, what really caught my eye was Obama's strong performances in multiple Republican-held districts in CA.  I understand now why a lot of folks out there thought we underperformed in the House races.  Several went from Bush double digit wins to Obama wins - very impressive.  Now we need to get those voters to go Democratic down the ballot.


I did the number-crunching
and calculated the presidential numbers for each state leg district. I didn't have the data for Fresno, San Joaquin, or Tulare Counties, so I just took the numbers from the supplemental SOV from 2004 and adjusted them according to the county numbers and percentages in 2008.

Senate: http://spreadsheets.google.com...

Assembly: http://spreadsheets.google.com...

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Great job
Thanks for doing that! Im checking it out now. Id love to see 08 Pres. results for other states' legislative districts. Though ive seen some for NY State Assembly.

[ Parent ]
Maybe you saw mine
I have NYC Assembly district results...but luckilly NYC releases their election results BY Assembly District.

I'm going to attempt to do it for the rest of the state, but it'll take time.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens


[ Parent ]
Yeah, it was yours
And it was very informative. Thanks! Cant wait to know the state senate results.  

[ Parent ]
And here's a visual aid.
The San Francisco and Los Angeles/San Diego districts are very compact, so I did those areas' results on separate maps. (Just a warning: You'll be seeing blue, and lots of it, in the San Fran maps! ;-P)

Senate Overall: http://i44.tinypic.com/4g3oqq.png
Senate Bay Area: http://i43.tinypic.com/25tom.png
Senate Outer L.A./S.D.: http://i41.tinypic.com/2dr8gvl...
Senate Inner L.A.: http://i43.tinypic.com/29z6k5x...

Assembly Overall: http://i40.tinypic.com/et5cgx.png
Assembly Bay Area: http://i42.tinypic.com/14sfech...
Assembly Outer L.A./S.D.: http://i39.tinypic.com/15vztx.png
Assembly Inner L.A.: http://i42.tinypic.com/30aqujk...

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Maldonado
I had no idea Abel Maldonado represented such a pro-Obama district. It went for Obama by like 17.

[ Parent ]
SD-15 even went for Kerry by a comfortable 6%.


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Maldonado
He sounds like someone whod be at least decent as a statewide candidate. Perhaps hes too conservative for his own district, i dont know, but it doesnt hurt that he is able to run in a Dem-leaning district.  

[ Parent ]
Redistricting
Can you talk about how you handled redistricting?

It's especially noticeable with districts that were created after 2000 but everything under goes changes. And even with states that didn't gain/lose states, the 2000 redistricting would make comparisons difficult.

To map results, you usually have to do a lot of intense GIS stuff, layering old precincts onto the new ones (which can change yearly) ... and if there's anything more difficult to find than precinct maps, it's old precinct maps. That's how the NCEC folks do it and I know it's a huge pain in the butt to do every 2-4 years since precinct boundaries are subject to the whims of thousands of individual county auditors.

2008 to 2004 comparisons can probably be safely be made, but without some explanation about how the 2000 results were determined, I'm not sure it's valid data.


The 2000 & 2004 data
Were taken from other sources - we only crunched the 2008 numbers ourselves. However, I have been assured that the 2000 numbers were adjusted to reflect post-2000 census redistricting.

[ Parent ]

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