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Crowdsourcing Pres-by-CD: Second Wave of Results

by: Crisitunity

Tue Dec 16, 2008 at 4:45 PM EST


Last week we released our first wave of results, for over 100 congressional districts. Today, as promised, here's our second wave, with the results for another 95 districts.

Despite the huge avalanche of data, we're still only halfway done. Please take a look at our master database to see what states remain. Even if you don't have time to tabulate data yourself but if you've sniffed out some precinct-level data sources anywhere, please let us know in the database! We need you, to put the "crowd" in "crowdsourcing." (A permalink to all our results so far is available here.)

DistrictObama # McCain #Other #2008 %2004 %2000 %
AZ-01127,790157,1603,84844.3/54.446/5446/51
AZ-02138,275220,6674,27938.1/60.838/6141/57
AZ-03121,996162,7243,42242.3/56.541/5843/55
AZ-0486,81543,6101,65165.7/33.062/3863/35
AZ-05140,287153,7363,36247.2/51.745./5443/54
AZ-06135,178220,7184,06837.6/61.335/6437/61
AZ-07123,20289,7252,49157.2/41.757/4358/38
AZ-08161,164181,7714,14146.4/52.446/5346/50
FL-01112,291232,4493,63832.2/66.728/7231/69
FL-02161,822196,5553,71544.7/54.346/5447/53
FL-03144,16752,0561,21373.0/26.465/3565/35
FL-04141,930231,9153,54137.6/61.531/6934/66
FL-05191,959249,3285,02943.0/55.941/5846/54
FL-06117,280184,8643,08938.4/60.639/6142/58
FL-07116,797158,4372,86842.0/57.043/5746/54
FL-08187,295167,1272,71452.4/46.845/5546/54
FL-09169,897190,3444,59646.6/52.243/5746/54
FL-10164,148150,9624,89551.3/47.149/5151/49
FL-11174,31488,3572,64265.7/33.358/4161/39
FL-12115,180123,9582,42447.7/51.342/5845/55
FL-13175,991196,9083,73246.7/52.344/5646/55
FL-14167,015224,4053,08442.3/56.938/6239/61
FL-15137,627152,4153,35246.9/52.043/5746/54
FL-16174,255191,4233,82147.2/51.846/5447/53
FL-17209,83929,75889987.3/12.483/1785/15
FL-18128,124122,4281,77450.8/48.546/5443/57
FL-19223,009115,6552,24965.4/33.966/3473/27
FL-20186,912106,3442,24063.3/36.064/3669/31
FL-21122,024127,4021,23248.7/50.843/5742/58
FL-22175,731162,0122,63851.6/47.652/4852/48
FL-23194,02239,1591,14182.8/16.776/2480/20
FL-24116,527127,3862,56247.3/51.745/5547/53
FL-25126,010128,3491,35949.3/50.244/5645/55
HI-01152,32060,9794,12970.1/28.153/4755/39
HI-02172,88159,4505,27872.8/25.056/4456/36
IL-01248,99037,1761,58786.5/12.983/1784/16
IL-02260,86928,6761,34789.7/9.984/1683/17
IL-03154,99985,5023,20363.6/35.159/4158/40
IL-04119,22718,4531,86685.4/13.279/2179/20
IL-05178,17062,9063,38372.9/25.767/3366/34
IL-06156,903119,9983,73755.9/42.847/5344/53
IL-07255,47033,6621,93587.8/11.683/1783/16
IL-08140,593104,5443,16156.6/42.144/5642/56
IL-09188,82268,9893,20272.3/26.468/3267/31
IL-10178,561111,7552,80160.9/38.153/4751/47
IL-11163,664137,3344,64053.6/44.946/5348/50
IL-12140,346114,1124,08654.3/44.152/4854/43
IL-13188,155154,7884,14854.2/44.645/5542/55
IL-14145,613118,3273,55954.4/44.244/5543/54
IL-15123,074124,7174,47248.8/49.441/5943/54
IL-16114,33796,1083,62253.4/44.944/5543/54
IL-17113,91379,3112,91858.1/40.451/4854/44
IL-18139,085136,3944,69049.6/48.742/5844/54
IL-1969,93993,6352,94142.0/56.239/6141/56
MD-01142,667208,7436,83939.8/58.336/6240/57
MD-02164,089106,0885,26359.6/38.554/4557/41
MD-03176,572118,9755,99758.6/39.554/4555/41
MD-04240,71540,0022,20085.1/14.178/2177/21
MD-05219,437114,6074,28764.9/33.957/4257/41
MD-06138,091198,2387,42640.2/57.734/6536/61
MD-07214,54254,3543,57878.7/20.073/2673/25
MD-08201,51069,0623,92273.4/25.269/3066/31
NE-01121,411148,1794,30344.3/54.136/6336/59
NE-02138,809135,4393,56150.0/48.838/6039/57
NE-0373,099169,3614,28229.6/68.624/7525/71
NV-01158,41885,2265,13963.7/34.357/4256/41
NV-02167,812167,9008,41748.8/48.841/5737/57
NV-03207,418159,5747,71655.4/42.649/5049/48
NC-01177,941105,7381,28862.4/37.157/4257/42
NC-02155,681141,8402,39751.9/47.346/5446/53
NC-03117,178190,0932,45637.8/61.432/6835/64
NC-04275,205159,4274,30562.7/36.355/4453/46
NC-05126,556203,0764,20837.9/60.833/6633/66
NC-06122,291212,0113,52536.2/62.830/6932/67
NC-07150,071167,8882,74746.8/52.444/5648/52
NC-08152,261135,2342,22252.6/46.745/5446/54
NC-09174,410212,2503,04344.8/54.536/6336/63
NC-10108,496191,5803,50135.7/63.133/6734/65
NC-11159,772179,0614,74646.5/52.143/5740/58
NC-12218,59989,7902,03370.4/28.963/3757/42
NC-13204,190140,4863,19358.7/40.452/4749/50
SC-01118,356174,4583,81039.9/58.839/6138/59
SC-02135,452175,0523,28443.2/55.839/6039/58
SC-0395,124178,0893,64434.4/64.334/6635/63
SC-04118,453188,8545,22937.9/60.434/6533/64
SC-05135,564160,9443,49745.2/53.742/5743/55
SC-06139,43883,6962,27861.9/37.161/3958/40
WA-01226,526130,3435,91162.4/35.956/4253/42
WA-02202,480151,9927,41556.0/42.051/4748/46
WA-03183,306159,8036,89852.4/45.748/5046/48
WA-04111,423159,9045,12740.3/57.835/6334/62
WA-05152,921171,4268,28346.0/51.541/5740/56
WA-06182,446128,6816,54557.4/40.553/4552/43
WA-07308,22655,2005,53683.5/15.079/1972/21
WA-08210,998155,9005,77956.6/41.851/4849/47
WA-09172,318115,8375,29858.7/39.553/4653/43

This round was even more fun than the previous batch, because it involves a number of states where the turnaround was huge (either because of the favorite son effect, as in Illinois, or because the Obama campaign actually decided to compete there for once, like Nevada and North Carolina). Want to see some truly staggering progress? Check out IL-08, once the core of Chicago's deep red suburbs (and home to Rep. Phil Crane), and even the site of a 56-44 edge for Bush in 2004. This year? Obama won 57-42.

As we get into the more complicated states here (the last wave picked all the lowest hanging fruit), there are some caveats to be mindful of, which may affect the data reliability a small amount. In Florida, for instance, we're missing precinct-level data for one county, which affects two districts (the 3rd and 6th); unfortunately, it's a pretty big county (Alachua, home of Gainesville and Univ. of Florida). In Illinois, all districts are affected by the curse of split precincts, which don't seem to make much of a big difference, while some of the downstate districts are affected by some missing precinct-level data from some smaller counties; because of their small size, it doesn't seem to affect the district's overall percentages much, though.

In North Carolina, our spreadsheet whiz there broke the totals down into 'hard' and 'soft' totals, with 'hard' reflecting only known numbers and 'soft' allocating early votes and absentees proportionately (which apparently just sit in an indistinguished lump in NC). I chose to proceed using the 'soft' totals, which are much larger, but a stickler might choose to focus on 'hard' totals instead. South Carolina also has a high number of 'indivisibles' in its spreadsheet, which appear to be a lot of split precincts. The high number of indivisibles appears to exert some pressure on some of the percentages in South Carolina, perhaps in SC-01, where there appears to be little leftward movement since 2004.

So, take the numbers with a grain of salt, and certainly don't expect these numbers to be a 100% match for Polidata's numbers, forthcoming this spring. And of course, please contribute to this project however you see fit!

Crisitunity :: Crowdsourcing Pres-by-CD: Second Wave of Results
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FL-24... yuck
I was really hoping for better from my district.  Especially considering Kosmas's 16 point landslide defeat of Feeney.  Looks like the PVI here will actually become a bit more republican.

I See Obama Underperformed Kerry....
....in the heavily Jewish districts (FL-19, FL-20, and FL-22) as well, but not substantially.  If Obama had been able to consolidate the elderly Jewish vote, Florida could have been been an outright blowout for Obama.

[ Parent ]
Three thoughts on that
First, except for FL-22, the percentages are so close that I'm not even comfortable saying there was any real change here. Let's see what Polidata says in a couple of months. Second, I'm impressed at how well Obama rebounded with my older relatives, but not exactly surprised. They did not like Sarah Palin. Third, the biggest drop looks like it was in FL-22. I think that makes Klein's 10 point win here look just fine. (Some were kvetching about how he supposedly didn't win with a big enough margin this year).  

[ Parent ]
apparently
the district is very evenly divided. Florida Republicans did a good job packing every Republican voter in South Florida in here.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
White Republicans, you mean
There are three Cuban Republican districts down there still. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen's district will be competitive if she ever moves on, though.  

[ Parent ]
I saw a clip of her Strip dancing
in a radio studio. Jon Stewart was making fun of her, and really, the way she said the whole Rahm Emmaneul story to a local news station made me cry out laughing, as well as clips of her past behavior. I can't help but like her now. FL-21 moved the most overall, but FL-25 and is almost Democratic now and FL-18 actually is Democratic now.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
As the guy who did Illinois...
(and AZ, FL, MD, NC, and SC), just a few more caveats: there are some significant counties missing from the downstate districts - such as Madison (Metro-East, Alton) from districts 12 and 19, DeKalb (DeKalb, NIU) from districts 14 and 16.

McHenry County (McHenry, Crystal Lake, Algonquin, Cary) is also missing, and it's decently large (260K population as of 2007), which will affect IL-08 and IL-16.

In Florida, the early vote is also missing from Brevard, Jefferson, Seminole, and Volusia counties. Given Obama's strength in the early vote (remember that he lost the Election Day vote), that will affect several districts: 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 7th, and 15th. Tom Feeney (and soon to been Suzanne Kosmas)'s 24th district will be affected the most, since it takes in parts of Brevard, Seminole, and Volusia. 'Soft' totals will be forthcoming shortly....


That solves the mystery
I was wondering why the numbers looked so bad for Obama in FL-24.

[ Parent ]
So was I...
I'm just wondering now if the early vote will be enough to put Obama over the top there. It'd be nice "ammo" for us to have to encourage Kosmas not to drift too far to the right once in office.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
She'll likely be in the New Democrat mode
That's how she was in the FL state house.  She'll be somewhat of a budget hawk, but not to the point that she won't support needed government programs.  She'll be a pretty solid backer of most of Obama's big legislation.  Kosmas is a good fit for the district.

[ Parent ]
I took a look at Escambia chad,
Obama got a shocking 40% of the vote here; it was every other county that screwed usup. FL-02 would lean Dem if it weren't for fricking Panama City and Bay County, which has a slightly smaller population than Escambia, but voted 70-29 McCain. It completely cancels out Tallahasse, which has a large colelge and black population and went huge for obama. What is with it? The Demographics say its 22% minority, so shouldn't that put Democrats at at least 35% of the vote in Bay? Its tourist town and aren't those normall supposed to lean further left than the areas around them because more people from the north and major urban areas settle into them?

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
I'm not all that knowledgable about that region
Only been through the Panhandle a few times.  It's as deep south as it gets.  As for the tourist spots in the panhandle, well, it's called the "redneck riviera" for a reason.  Most of the residents and tourists alike are from the deep south.  The northeastern tourists and transplants tend to migrate to south and central Florida, while the southerners flock to Panama City and Pensacola.  

Thankfully central and south Florida are the population centers of the state and the Panhandle/Jacksonville area comprises barely 3 of 25 congressional districts.  And that will shrink even further next redistricting with growth in the Panhandle pretty well flat.


[ Parent ]
Also FL-02
As that district has a large African-American population and I'd expect higher turnout there to let Obama at least overperform his 04 and 00 numbers.

Most interesting to me in Florida was the turnaround in FL-08. Looks like Grayson, despite his win, actually may have run behind Obama! The registration and demographic shifts we saw coming really did pan out in this district.


[ Parent ]
FL-24 'Soft' Totals
Here are final results for FL-24:
24-Total
Obama:  188,189  48.45%
McCain: 196,319  50.54%

Obama did well in the Seminole (50.85%, +1,555) and Volusia (53.27%, +3,745) early/absentees, but managed only 44.68% in the Brevard early/absentee vote (-2,524). Additionally, the split Volusia precincts were on balance 48% Obama (-47), giving us the final results we see here.


[ Parent ]
Sounds more like it
Seminole, along with Duval (Jacksonville) were my biggest surprises in Florida on election night.  Obama losing those two only narrowly was a VERY big surprise.  Those counties are usually very reliably republican.  

I work in Seminole.  It's mostly white collar and very wealthy.  Not a place I thought we'd see a big shift left.


[ Parent ]
Duval is deep south
You can tell by how black it is, and yet how Republican it remains.  

[ Parent ]
It's not a surprise really
I've been to many Jaguar football games so I'm familiar with the area.  Jacksonville is a stereotypical deep south city.  Miles and miles of deeply impoverished inner-city slums where the black population lives surrounded by a mass of wealthy white suburbs where everyoe votes republican.  Usually the whites vote at a far higher clip which causes the area to lean so strongly GOP.  But this year black turnout soared, nearly giving Obama an amazing 50% in Duval.

[ Parent ]
Thanks Jeff!
Do you have the soft total for "other" as well?

[ Parent ]
5,179.
Again, these 3rd party totals aren't completely reliable since the state and counties record 3rd parties differently. County 'Other' totals are much higher than that from the FL Elections Division.

I will have the full 'soft' totals for all CDs up shortly.


[ Parent ]
Looking forward to it!
Thanks again!

[ Parent ]
'Soft' Totals for FL are done.
Except for Alachua County, where we're still waiting on data. The FL-24 number I quoted earlier was a bit off, I'd forgotten about some split precincts in Orange County that ended up being 56% Obama and closed the margin by 360 votes.

[ Parent ]
Good, thanks for the update
I'll make a mental note to update once you've posted the soft numbers. (Like I said, I used soft numbers for NC.)

As for McHenry County, I may have to temper my enthusiasm somewhat about IL-08; it's more conservative than DuPage County, which went blue for the first time ever, so with it included, that may lower the percentage a bit. Which reminds me: regardless of the IL-08 numbers, I think the biggest Democratic improvement was actually in NE-02, where, as I'm sure you all know, we barely won (and thus picked up an extra EV).


[ Parent ]
True about McHenry.
I'm not too pessimistic though about IL-08, since McHenry also went Obama this time with 52% (and if you've ever been to Fox River Grove and Port Barrington, that's surprising...). Additionally, Bean has the more Democratic parts, I'm assuming, since they're much more suburban than Manzullo's part.

[ Parent ]
Hooray for Nevada!
I love my "other home state"! Obama came SO CLOSE to winning NV-02 (Heller's seat), and he just ran away with both NV-01 (Berkley) & NV-03 (was Porter-R, now Titus-D). This is awesome! Nevada's now blue, and I'll work my ass off to make sure Nevada only grows bluer in the next few cycles to come. :-D

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


IL-18 = Epic Fail
Seriously, Obama won that dsitrict and in the same election a nutter like Schock won an open seat.  There is NO excuse for that.

Money
Schock spent $2,533 K to $606 K for Callahan.  In fact, Callahan was outspent by outgoing Conressman Ray LaHood.  And that's just the candidate side of it.  I'd expect outside groups spent a bundle on the obnoxious twerp, Schock.

[ Parent ]
Recruiting wise I meant
Surely we could have done better than Callahan.  Heck, even Dick Versace would have done better than her on name recognition alone.

[ Parent ]
Schock is a time bomb
He'll say one too many stupid things and hopefully we'll have a candidate running then who will be able to get the message out of "no seriously do you people have any idea how deranged this guy is?"
He's not in nearly as safe a district as that significantly less heterosexual wunderkind Patrick McHenry nor does Illinois plagued by those self-important fucks with the Independence party who will probably keep Bachmann out of reach.  Even without a top-tier candidate, his mouth will catch up with him with him eventually.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
WA-08
Obama won WA-08 57/42 as Burner lost it by 4%. Honestly I find that really disappointing and I wonder if Reichert has essentially become entrenched at this point.

I think so
There is a lot of hand-wringing about Burner being a bad candidate.  I never really bought it.  Reichert is just a well-known and liked guy in the 8th district.  The kind that unfortunately can hold a Dem-leaning district.  Too bad Washington has independent redistricting or we might have been able to get him out that was in 2012.

[ Parent ]
Burner is not a good fit for the district
she's microsoft, white collar, highly educated upper class Seattle suburbia. This district is the most blue collar district in the area and is mostly old fashioned suburbs and has more rural areas. She would have fit in better in WA-06 or WA-01. Not only was she a bad fit culturally, but Reichert was well known and a good fit culturally for the district and Burner didn't have Iraq to crow about this time. We need a different kind of candidate to have a chance at winning this kind of district.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Other possible candidates
There are Dems that have had electoral success in Reichert's district. Randy Tom, a liberal R who became a D in 2005, was leaning toward running but deferred to Darcy. There are some others, but the names escape me.

[ Parent ]
You could also argue the opposite
There are lots of Democrats who routinely outrun their districts much more than that. And um, essentially one Republican (Mike Castle).

I mean, seriously, is Jim Gerlach ever going to break 53%? This year he essentially ran against no one and couldn't do it.


[ Parent ]
Florida
It looks like most of the Florida districts didn't see a huge swing percentage wise towards Dems this election.  The Obama win in Florida seems to have more to do with far higher turnout in minority and other liberal districts than we saw in 2000 and 2004.

I don't know it looks to me like
Obama improved 3-4 percent across the board which is all that he needed to do. He improved big in the I-40 corridor, making big gains in Voulisa, Orange, Pinellas, Hillsborough, and Seminole counties. He made big gains in Keller's, Feeney's, Putnam's, and Bilakris' districts, and he improved big time in the Cuban areas, performing better than any Democrat ever has, even outdoing Gore by about 7 points. And this is coming from a state that he ran very weakly in in the beginning, (I remember a poll after the Democratic primary fiasco that showed McCain beating him 56-33). In fact McCain had a six point lead here right up until the economic crisis and then it was still tied. This is a closely divided state with strong conservative elements and strong liberal elements. The conservative elements still slightly outweigh the liberal ones and the FL-GOP is so much stronger and better organized and funded that the FL-DP. McCain was perhaps a perfect fit for the state, perceived as moderate, military background etc, and I expected him to win it while losing Ohio. That's the way I called it, but was luckily wrong. I think Democrats are right where they want to be at this point in time though, now for a two decade march to retake the state legislature which is terribly gerrymandered and too overwhelmingly Republican for a swing state. Another reason Florida Republicans do so well is taht they have so many moderates and are perceived as open to moderates; the legislature is full of them representing swing areas.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
FL-10 a big exception
It looks like Republicans may actually have a good chance now at electing Bill Young's eventual successor.  The man's got the most seniority of any Republican in the House (elected in 1970).  It will swing from D+1 toan actual Republican lean.

OTOH, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen ought to be very afraid.

Fwiw, Cubans seem to be the only hispanic sub-group that's over-represented in Congress with two Senators (Mel Martinez and Robert Menendez and four House members (Albio Sires for the Ds and Ileana Ros Lehtinen and the Diaz-Balart brothers for the Republicans, Mario and Lincoln.  All from 1.5 million people.  As Scarface said "First you get the money, then you get the power ...."


[ Parent ]
R+1
doesn't matter, the state as a whole was R+2 because Obama didn't do as well there as he did nationally. Doesn't matter becuase he still won it, a majority of people in the dsitrict and in the state still chose to side with a liberal Democrat. PVI's are a very flawed system. FYI, Democrats have a very strong candidate in a state senator who's been sitting in the wings for sometime waiting for Young to finally retire. With Republicans spectacular and disgusting gerrymander they put all the Democratic voters in this area in neighboring FL-11, they even placed most of the black voters there. Still even that can't make this a Republican leaning seat.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
PVI ratings
to me, at least, is nothing more than a broad barometer for a specific district.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Exactly
Obama still won the district (51-47). I too find the PVI system too flawed. That is why I use the presidential margin in the district to describe it.

The state senator ArkDem refers to is Charlie Justice, and I too think he could win and hold the district when Young retires.

While the FL GOP still controls the redistricting machinery, I don't think there's much else they can do at this point. They stretched the margins as thinly as possible (which came back to bite them in FL-8, FL-22, and FL-24). Plus most of the growth is in areas where Dems are competitive (South Florida and Orlando-Tampa). Plus, the voting demographics in the Hispanic community (including the Cubans) are not in their favor.  


[ Parent ]
Yes, Justice is our best bet
He'd probably have a slight edge to win this district when Young retires.

[ Parent ]
FL-22
is still spectacular. Obama improved by five points state wide and didn 't move the bar there at all. Its firmly set at a narrowly divided 52-48 district. I'm still marveling how at how they managed to put every pocket of wealthy and strongly conservative white Republican voters in south florida into one district. FL-22 worked as good as any could have. Shaw won in 2000 by only a thousand votes, while Gore took 63% of the vote in his district. Shaw could not have held such a district much longer so they made it ten points more solidly Republican and Shaw faced too very weak flawed Dems and dispatched them easily before Klein pulled off the spectacular defeat of a 13 term incumbent. Klein finally managed to get liberal Ft. Lauderdale Democrats to actually vote for a Democrat over pork. (Excpet the pro-Bush mayor, I don't get htat, the conservative Dem mayor of Ft. Lauderdale. Isn't it pretty liberal? Yet there are a bunch of conservative elected Democrats. And, popular Klein only got 55% despite outspending a nobody colonel about 12:1. That just shows you how amazingly powerful and well organized the Republican machine is and how many voters they can get to vote for any Republican in this district.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
We should hold the 22nd for a long time
The republicans made that district as republican as possible in 2002 and they can't eliminate it in 2012.  My guess is they concede that district in 2012 and draw it to be more democratic in order to try and keep the neighboring Cuban-American districts as republican as possible.

[ Parent ]
Awsome, thanks for all of the hard work
The states really ought to be required to do this for us. The extra work required would be minimal.


One further thought
It looks like if Obama had won Mineral County, he would have won all 3 NV Congressional districts. I'm really impressed by that.

OK, One MORE
Look at how far Frank Kratovil outran Obama in MD-01. Andy Harris had the wind at his back, so he must have really pissed off the eastern shore.

That One Struck Me Too.....
....the geography-is-everything politics (I'll vote for whoever's from my neighborhood!) of Maryland's Eastern Shore would seem to rival that of Louisiana based on the anecdotal evidence from the Kratovil race vs. Obama's anemic numbers there.

[ Parent ]
Interestingly
it looks like Obama did a little better on the eastern shore than Kerry, but about the same or a little bit worse in Harford/B'More County. Could this be the southernmost reach of the Biden effect? He's from neighboring Delaware, of course.

[ Parent ]
I'm surprised Obama improved
morein MD-06, which I had believed was the more solidly Republican district to begin with. There's also a soutehrn affect here, as the eastern shore is very southern and therefore racial aversion may played a factor in Obama's weak percentage there.

Kratovil is also well-positioned though, because he's a popular district attorney from the second most Republican county and most Republican of all the eastern shore counties aside from Hartford, Quenne Anne's. Though McCain won it 62-38, the my neighborhood thing got Kratovil a 54-44% victory, an dits fairly populous. Then he won every other county in the dsitrict except for Anne Arundel nad Baltimore. That's what we need to fix, we need to put more of ubran Annapolis and put the more Democratic portiosn of Anne Arundel in, plus some oh Hoyer's district while taking out Hartford. Sen. Piper would have beaten Kratovil this year.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus


[ Parent ]
I think you're wrong about there being
a southern effect on the eastern shore. Obama won a county (Kent) while Kerry won none. In fact, the reason the first district is so Republican now is because it takes in what's left of Republican rural and exurban central Maryland. The Dems carved up the state very well last cycle.  

[ Parent ]
Kent is in the northern portion
of the dsitrict right below Hartford. The district is very southern. This is the area of the state that used to be considered part of thae south until after the civil war and much of its agricultural areas that once had slaves. The southern end of the district is especially souther, like rural northeastern virginia, Whitman's district. But, even OBama made some improvements over Kerry in the south.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
It's Harford, no t
and Kent is across the bay from Harford County, so culturally, they're not even close. Harford is very suburban in the southern parts and gets more exurban the farther north you go.

You are right though, the southern end of the Eastern Shore is quite Southern, not so much like rural NE Virginia, but more like Accomack and Northampton Counties in Thelma Drake/Glenn Nye's district.

However, I wouldn't say the district is "very" Southern. Anne Arundel makes up 16%, Baltimore County 10%, and Harford 17%.
The Baltimore suburbs and exurbs are where more of the Republican strength is concentrated (62% McCain), not further down.


[ Parent ]
I did TX-12 and TX-24
http://spreadsheets.google.com...

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

what were the results?


Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Can you not see the link?
How am I doing this wrong?

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Or maybe this.
http://spreadsheets.google.com...

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
thanks, big improvements in Marchants district
we should definitely be contesting his and Session's districts.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Problem is we lack candidates
In Marchant's we got 2 state reps (1 in Arlington, 1 in Grand Prairie). THe state house district that went into recount is also in that district (we lost it by 19 votes).

As for the 2 state reps, 1 was elected in 2006 (and bought me lunch one time, really cool) and the other was a republican and switched to being a Dem in fall of 2007, so they're  still really new.

A good way of putting it is the southern half of TX-24 and the Tarrant County part of TX-26 were Martin Frost's old district. No matter who controls redistricting, I expect to see a new Dem seat made here in 2012, Dallas and southeast Tarrant County has moved too far left since 2004 to only have 1 Dem in the metroplex. Remember, Texas is gaining 4 new seats.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
so what, Republicans
might actually trade off two dems for two new safe Repubs, (I know they're probably going to have to carve another one in the houston area, Culberson and McMaul are having increasingly tough districts.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Doubt they'll do 2 for 2
But they will have to make one in D/FW or Kenny or Burgess or Sessions (heck, maybe all 3) are going bye-bye if they keep the current map through 2012.

6 of the state house seats we gained since 2004 have come from D/FW (4 in Dallas, 2 in Tarrant) We actually had a 7th, that we won via special election, but lost it in the general this year.

I think they can keep Houston as is, they'll prob just cut up Al Green and Sheila Jackson Lee's districts some more to try and stave off Culberson for 10 more years. As for McCaul, redraw Travis as 1 solid Democratic seat and give it to Doggett (remember, the plan was to give Doggett a majority Latino seat so as to see a primary loss, that failed). If McCaul loses his bits of Travis county, he's safe, he's got some of the crazy parts of Harris.

I look forward to seeing what they do to Olson's though. Fort Bend almost went to Obama. I think a lot depends on the final fate of Galveston county, which has been moving right (I figured my hometown, Friendswood of Galveston County, went ~80% for McCain)

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
On second thought
I dunno what the new map will look like. They can give Dems 2 seats now while giving themselves 2 and protecting all incumbents, or they can dummy-mander a Pennsylvania type map that will hurt a lot by 2018.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Ya, that's what I'm thinking
If they try to make more than 2 of the 4 new districts republican they'd seriously endander one or more of their current reps.  Heck, even two seats for them might be a stretch given the trends in many Texas districts.  If they get too greedy it probably would end up looking like a PA dummymander within a few house cycles as you say.

[ Parent ]
*#%*#&_%_%#@*(_&%#@
Dallas County does not report results as a total county. What I had reported for TX-5 and TX-24 in Dallas were only early votes.

Suck, suck, suck.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
Fixed TX-24
WIll Fix TX-5 tomorrow

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Here's the California spreadsheet
http://spreadsheets.google.com...

I've done the results of counties that are completely in their respective districts and will find as much precinct data for the split counties as I can.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


I got most of the partial counties in.
I just can't find precinct data for Fresno, Madera, Riverside, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Santa Barbara, Santa Clara, or Ventura.

I have data for Solano County, but only for districts 7 and 10; CA-03 also includes part of Solano.

I also have the data for San Diego, but the data is listed only in each individual city's pages, so it will take me a bit longer to get the data in for the districts in that county (49-53).

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Similar patterns from the first round
Obama maxes out in the cities, approaching 90% in some districts.  There simply aren't any Republican districts even remotely as lopsided at that, not even close.  Also stunning improvements in suburban and exurban areas, while mostly holding even or falling behind in rural, primarily white Southern areas.

Once again I'm reminded of the fantastic job Republicans did gerrymandering in 2002, look at all those R+10 districts and all those D+30 or so districts.  Fortunately for us, a lot of those districts Bush won by 10% have since moved our way, leaving a lot of Republicans high and dry.  There are numerous targets in Florida and Illinois just waiting to be challenged.  Also, Reichert as we know is vulnerable to the right challenger in Washington, but so is Cathy McCormick, the Spokane area is also shifting our way.


correction
Cathy McMorris.

Also, it is good to see that all the other six Washington Democrats are safe as can be now after mostly getting light blue or tossup districts last time.


[ Parent ]
I think that's the wrong conclusion to draw
Just because Obama did very well in their districts doesn't mean that they're forever safe. The political climate can change on a dime.

[ Parent ]
In case anyone cares---the final results
IN CASE ANYONE CARES -- THE FINAL RESULTS

I found this Congressional district by district chart extremely interesting.

For the past two days, I've been looking for the final, official popular vote total because Dec. 15 was the day that all 50 states turned in their official tallies -- and officially cast their Electoral College votes.

I couldn't find a news story summarizing the official tallies, but I found it on Wikipedia.

Obama got 69,460,098 votes or 52.93 percent; McCain 59,930,180 or 45.67 percent.  This is a spread of 9,529,918 votes or 7.26 percent.

I found this final tally interesting since on Nov. 5 Obama's margin was approximately 6 percent and 7.25 million (63.1 million to 55.85 million).

There was very little attention paid to the significantly increasing margin over the past several weeks.

It also indicates that the USA still needs to dramatically revamp its vote-counting procedures with more than 10 million counted late.  It shouldn't take six weeks to count absentee votes.

Shalom,
ZWrite


Hear, hear!
Our entire electoral process is fubar.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
House margins, etc.
The Democratic margin in all House races was supposedly 8.8% meaning House Democrats as a whole ran slightly ahead of Obama (by about 1.5%).  

Going through the list, or at least a few states, the general pattern is that Obama ran ahead of non-incumbents but ran even or behind incumbent Democrats. A few successful challengers ran ahead of him as well.

For instance in Arizona, Obama ran ahead in AZ-2, even in AZ-3, and ahead in AZ-6 (all seats won by Republicans) and behind in the 5 districts won by Democrats.  In Florida, Obama ran behind 8 of the 9 Democrats who were re-elected and ran 1 point ahead of Alcee Hastings.  He also ran 10 points behi Sanne Kosmas and even with Alan Grayson but ran substantially ahead of some of the losing challengers (9 points ahead of Annette Taddeo, 9 points ahead of Christine Jennings were the biggest margins).

Illinois (or at least the city of Chicago) may be a special case.  Obama ran behind 8 of the elected candidates but ran ahead of four.  He also ran ahead of all seven losing candidates. Ironically, he ran one point ahead of Bobby Rush who defeated him in a Congressional primary years ago.  Rahm at 74% was a percentahe point ahead of Obama in his district.  IL-10 was one of the worst results in the nation for a challenger.  Dan Seals lost a district where Obama tallied 61% by getting only 45%.  WTF.

In 2004, Kerry ran ahead of only about 20 Democrats (many by only a point or two) who were elected nationwide.  Obama outperformed Kerry.


[ Parent ]
Yep, people north of Chicago are independent -- pro-Obama and pro-Kirk
David Kowalksi:  ""IL-10 was one of the worst results in the nation for a challenger.  Dan Seals lost a district where Obama tallied 61% by getting only 45%.  WTF."

I live in the Chicago area.  As I've mentioned many times before, Mark Kirk is a moderate Republican who is widely respected by liberals for his independence.  He is liberal on most social issues, but is conservative on financial matters.

The people on this Web site scoffed on numerous occasions when I mentioned (before the election) my analysis of this Congressional district.  If the Dems listen to the SwingStaters, Kirk will win again -- although he might run for statewide office first.

Shalom,
ZWrite


[ Parent ]

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