Not only IN-02

But CO-06 as well.  Huge swings our way.  I honestly cant believe he won Araphoe.  I was out that way in July and saw very few Obama signs.  To be fair I saw only slightly more McCain signs.  I suppose the economic collapse swung a bunch of folks our way.  Good trends in CO if we can maintain it.

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by: BigDust @ Mon Mar 02, 2009 at 23:17:12 PM UTC

Arapahoe

I just noticed that Arapahoe not only went for Bush by 8 in 2000 but actually went for Dole (by 9!) and Bush, Sr. For those who arent sure where/whats in Arapahoe, its in the Denver/Aurora metro area, pop. of like half a million, and includes Aurora and Littleton. It last went Dem in 64.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 00:24:01 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Huge gains in Arapahoe, but also northern Douglas

Apparently, northern Douglas county, to Denver's south, is booming quite nicely for us.  It'll take a couple more cycles, at least, for it really be blue, but I'm stunned, even living in the general area, to see CO-06 (my parents' district) come even close to an Obama win.  Throw out Douglas, the most conservative county in it, and maybe we did win the remainder.  Looks like all my Mom's shoe-leathering this past cycle paid off.  Now if I could have only convinced that woman up the street not to have voted Green...

To give you guys an idea of part of Arapahoe County, the area due south of my house in Denver abuts it.  There are two neighborhoods, Cherry Hills and Cherry Hills Village.  Both are almost entirely gated, and 25000 sq. ft. homes are not rare (though 10000 sq. ft. is probably more the norm for the area).  Rep. DeGette, who has this inner chunk of Arapahoe, was involved in a small scandal when she dropped some poor, Hispanic, labor Democratic areas in order to avoid a primary challenge from some of the Hispanic community leaders and got, per her request, this small chunk of northern Arapahoe.  East of this area, though, is far more Democratic (around Aurora) and middle class, and we do have state House and Senate leaders from the area.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

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by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 20:58:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

We probably lost NY-03

Obama did only slightly better in Nassau County and all the minority neighborhoods are in NY-04, McCarthy's district, so it's of my opinion that Obama did as good or worse than Kerry in the NY-03 section of Nassau County. Judging also by having been in that area around the election, I'd be surprised if McCain didn't win it. I wouldn't be surprised if he won it by 5% or more.

I know we have high hopes for NY-03, but judging by the Presidential election results and the lack of a Democratic bench in that district, it'll be difficult to win even without Peter King unless we bring someone in from just outside the district.

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Mon Mar 02, 2009 at 23:18:05 PM UTC

NY-03

I understand why Dems would be happy to have an open race there but i dont get why so many thinks itd be Dem favored. Thats the impression I get on the blogs, anyway, when hearing Dems speak of a potential open race there. Sure it went for Gore by like 7 but it always has seemed to me to be a GOP-leaning district.  

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 00:30:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The bench is weak

almost all of the local officials are Republicans. All State Senators are Republicans, all but two State Assemblyman (and the two Democrats would probably not run or have a chance districtwide if they did).

David Meijias was one of the best possibilities because he (a Nassau County Legislature) represents a part of the district that's very Republican.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 00:46:57 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

RE: our bench

What about State Senator Craig Johnson?

Could he run, or is he not in the 3rd?

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by: etl @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 01:59:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not worth it

We need to control the state Senate through redistricting. If Johnson wants to draw himself a Congressional district after that, we'll have a different situation.  

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by: andgarden @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 02:20:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

He's in the 5th

(From Port Washington.) Probably biding him time til Ackerman retires.

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by: Crisitunity @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 02:25:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

NY-05 would have to eliminate Queens first

because whoever gets elected there after Ackerman retires will almost certainly come from Queens unless they trim or cut it out. Queens makes up something like 70% of the district.


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 03:11:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

NY-05

Speaking of NY-05 thats one of the districts that has the Democratic areas to spare in order to make King's much more Democratic. I could definitely see King's being carved up like a knife, with part of it also going into McCarthy and Lowey's (not connected by land, of course, but that doesnt matter really). But i guess alot depends on whos elected in 2010. If a Republican is then itll probably be similar to what it is now but a little more Dem friendly.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 05:03:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rather

If a Dem is elected in 2010 itd probably be similar to what it is now but more dem friendly

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 05:05:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Connect Nassau to Westchester

I don't know about that...they have nothing in common, but it would be interesting. Rye and Oyster Bay have demographics in common and a border with the Sound.

You're right about NY-05...but some of the Republican areas there WERE in NY-03...Manhasset, Plandome, Carle Place and they're now in NY-05.

The big question is what the hell do we do with Massapequa, Seaford, Wantagh, Bethpage, Levittown, South Amityville and South Lindenhurst...they have to go somewhere and they're hopelessly Republican.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 06:01:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nassau + Westchester

Nassau and Westchester are two major NY suburban counties.  They have a lot in common. If you want a more Democratic area on the Long Island Sound in Westchester, New Rochelle may make sense (yes, that's more downscale in some areas nut not all).

Elliot Engel's district includes part of the Bronx, a small piece of Westchester (mostly Mt. Vernon) and a big chunk of Rockland.  Now that's a district that has contradictions.  Rockland and Mt. Vernon?

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by: David Kowalski @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 09:21:01 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ahh Levittown

Hometown of Bill O'Reilly. I didnt realize that part of Ackerman's use to be GOP territory in King's. Interesting. I guess itd make it hard to connect Dem areas of Ackerman's with King's. Still possible i would think.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 09:47:34 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Plenty of areas to play around with

I live in the district (Massapequa).  The Dems have many options to make BY-3 more Democratic. The first thing I would do is reverse what was done in the last census to make both Israel & King's district more friendly to the incumbent.  Give the 2nd district in Nassau back to King, and trade in for some of King's area in Suffolk.  This area in east-central Nassau is heavily Democratic (Plainview, Jericho, Woodbury, portions of Syosset).  The Nassau portion of NY-2 is more Democratic than the Suffolk portion, and Obama won the Nassau portion by 12 points.  So you have quite a bit of room to play around with even in the Suffolk portion in the areas of King's district you give back to Israel.  Turn the Suffolk portion of NY-2 from Obama + 12 to around Obama +7, makes NY-3 a bit more Democratic.  Also Israel would still be extremely safe and even if he retires or goes for another office (such as a Primary to Gillibrand) its still strong enough Democratic, and the Dem bench in the district is MUCH deeper than the Republican bench.  

Changing areas with NY-4, put Republican Levittown back in NY-4, swap that out for Freeport which use to be in NY-3 (only the extreme southern edges of Freeport are currently in NY-3.  You can also get creative by adding in portions of Baldwin, or even Roosevelt into NY-3.  Or go a bit further north and play around with areas such as New Cassel or Westbury.

As far as NY-5 goes.  Well your right the areas of Manhasset, Plandome are Republican.  However, you don't have to go that for west into NY-5.  The areas to the east of there closer to the NY-3 border are Democratic.  East Hills, North Hills, portions of Albertson, Searingtown, are all generally Democratic areas, East Hills being very Democratic  Then you have the Roslyn area (Roslyn, Roslyn Heights, Roslyn Estates) much like East Hills its very heavily Democratic.  Not sure what the Kerry or Obama numbers are in these areas, but in the Roslyn area & East Hills Gore was over 70% in virtually every precinct and approaching or beyond 80% in some cases.  Only drawback to the Roslyn area is it is where Ackerman currently lives (he moved there last year), but you could probably draw around that by leaving his precinct and maybe one or two others in NY05 and throwing the others into NY-03.

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by: Smash255 @ Sun Mar 08, 2009 at 06:47:28 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

But doesn't that put NY-04

back in play?

NY-04 is really so Democratic because of Hempstead, Uniondale, Roosevelt and Freeport...Garden City/Stewart Manor and Five Towns are two of the most Republican areas on the Island and I think they were McCain's biggest wins in either county. McCain won Garden City 68%-31%, Stewart Manor 66%-32%, Lawrence 68%-31%, Woodmere 64%-36% and Cedarhurst 63%-36%. Those were McCain's best numbers in all of Long Island.

Meanwhile look at Hempstead (87%-7% Obama), Uniondale (88%-12% Obama), Freeport (77%-33% Obama) and Roosevelt (97%-3% Obama), and also New Cassel (97%-3% Obama) and Westbury (66%-34% Obama) all in NY-04.

I kept the Newsday centerfold from November 5 with the results by town in both counties and from what I see Obama won Roslyn 59%-40%, Roslyn Estates 61%-39%, Roslyn Harbor 52%-48% and Roslyn Heights 62%-37%.

East Hills was 54%-46% for Obama
Albertson was 51%-48% for Obama
Herricks (which is Searingtown) was 55%-44% Obama


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Sun Mar 08, 2009 at 07:20:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Boy things have changed

I recall reading historical stuff where back in the 1970s Five Towns was heavily Jewish and Democratic, while Uniondale, the home of the Margiotta machine was heavily Repub.

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by: IHateBush @ Sun Mar 08, 2009 at 15:47:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Depends on where you are

Hewlett is heavily Jewish and is still very Democratic.

I don't know what makes Five Towns so Republican, but it predates any 9/11 effect I'd say. It was Bruce Bent's best area when he ran against Tom Suozzi for County Executive in 2001, and Bent lost countywide by something like 25 points.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Mon Mar 09, 2009 at 09:02:45 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

All I remember was that

Allard Lowenstein was barely elected from a district in 1968 which included the Five Towns (and the black areas).  The Repubs when they did the court ordered redistricting in 1970 removed the Five Towns from the district and replaced it with Massepequa, and Lowenstein was defeated by Norman Lent, even though Lowenstein won the areas which were part of his old district (i.e. he would have won if redistricting wouldn't have happened.)

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by: IHateBush @ Mon Mar 09, 2009 at 16:17:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Lawrence has a large Orthodox population

National security issues is part of the reason the Five Towns area has become a bit more Republican, but as was mentioned Hewlett is still Democratic.  However, the Lawrence area (which McCain won by a large margin) has a pretty large Orthodox Jewish population, and one which has grown quite a bit over the past 10-15 years or so.

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by: Smash255 @ Mon Mar 09, 2009 at 18:04:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Where the Polling place is

Newsday's numbers are base off the location of the actual Polling Place, which isn't always the same as the Precinct.  For example at my Polling place you had about 10 different precincts (if not more).  Its possible an area such as East Hills may have had some precincts from Brookville, which would have made the numbers a bit more Republican than what it was.  One of the Great Neck zipcodes had one of McCain's stronger performances, I would bet anything that it didn't come from Great Neck, but rather from Manhasset precincts which had its polling place in a Great Neck zipcode.

As far as NY-4 goes I wasn't talking about giving all those areas to the 3rdd, Hempstead, Uniondale would stay in the 4th.  I was thinking of giving Freeport to the 3rd and playing around with some other areas.  We will know more when the numbers from Nassau are actually released, but Obama likely won NY-4 by somewhere in the 12-15% range, so you have a bit of room to play around with there.  Also after re-districting LI would go from about 4 1/4 districts to 4 1/8 districts.  You can push a small portion of McCarthy's district into southeast Queens, taking some heavily Democratic areas from Meeks's district or you can push it a little further north into portions of Ackerman's district.  Currently 1/4 of Acerman's district is in Nassau, and if you keep all of 1-4 in Nassau, it would likely need to become 1/8 of the district in Nassau.  Even after putting some of Ackerman's district into King's district you still have some areas to play with.  Putting some Democratic areas of Ackerman's district into McCarthy's to make up for some of the Democratic areas you might lose by shoveling them into King's district.  It still might not be quite as Democratic as it is now, but keep in mind its a district which was very likely a double digit Obama district.

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by: Smash255 @ Sun Mar 08, 2009 at 22:22:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

RE: bloggers' impressions

I would gather it has to do with the history of other races, not only in the NYC metro area, but in some other places as well.

Republicans were winning the other seats in Long Island by strong margins until those long time incumbents were no longer there.  

Neither Israel or Bishop are having problems now.  I know the scandal helped, but that is a little more than that to swing from 60% GOP wins to a 60% Democratic win in the 13th district.

It's not going back either.

Some people assume that we are going to have a difficult fight winning the 3rd the first time, that it would be close, but after that our incumbent there would be winning by margins as solid as his or her neighbors.

They see this happen with Brian Higgans and Melissa Bean.  It happened up in Connecticut.  

Patrick Murphy in Bucks County also fits that picture.  Look at how many Republicans they have there further down the ticket in the state legislature.

Scandal helped knock out Curt Weldon, but Sestak is doing very well, as well.

I understand their optimism.  In any case, that is a good thing.

If enough donors out there and activists think our guy can win when it opens up, that enthusiasm and support might just be what makes the difference between a 50.3% victory and a 49.7% defeat.

I wouldn't try to dampen such spirits.

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by: etl @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 00:51:36 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah

if we can win the 3rd district, we'd hold it forever...happened with Carolyn McCarthy and Rush Holt too.

But winning it isn't going to be easy. This is not a Democratic district. It will probably have a R+ PVI after this election.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 03:08:35 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

R PVI

Democrats won a majority of districts nationally with a Cook PVI of R+3.  An R+1 or R+2 would not be a killer.  Otoh, an R+5 would make this unlikely.

All the Long Island seats have large Republican registration edges even though most are represented by Democrats in the House.  Long Isand used to post huge Republican majorities at the Presidential level not so long ago.  

This isn't a gimme district like LA-2.  But it is a district that we could possibly win.  Very strangely, NY-23 with the great open spaces at the tip of New York is now probably a better chance (by a little) if it was open.  Who'd a thunk it.

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by: David Kowalski @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 09:30:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think NY-03 might be R+5 or more

Obama certainly lost the district, and McCain got at least 52% here in my estimation...that would make it roughly R+6.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Sun Mar 08, 2009 at 07:27:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

only 1 & 3 have GOP registration advantages

The GOP use to have a solid registration advantage on the LI districts, but that has changed.

NY-1  GOP + 7.34   (all in Suffolk)

NY-2  Dem +5.80          
     Dem +4.62 in Suffolk, Dem + 17.22 in Nassau

NY-3  GOP + 10.77
     GOP +12.30 in Suffolk, GOP + 10.35 in Nassau

NY-4  Dem + 4.92 (all in Nassau)

NY-5  Dem +33.03
     Dem + 10.94 in Nassau, Dem + 42.44 in Queens  

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by: Smash255 @ Mon Mar 09, 2009 at 06:24:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Important fact about NY-01

many of those registered Republicans are in the Hamptons and they never vote Republican anymore.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Mon Mar 09, 2009 at 06:35:08 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good Point on NY-1

The district does have some GOP heavy areas, particularly in the town of Smithtown, but the Hamptons are full of Rockefeller type Republicans, which are to the left of Chaffee and don't vote Republican anymore.  Obama won the Town of Southampton by about 14 and the town of East Hampton by a 2-1 margin

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by: Smash255 @ Mon Mar 09, 2009 at 07:00:36 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Are there town results for LI anywhere?

I've been looking for them, mainly because I wanted to see if he managed to win Islip and Brookhaven, and also wanted to see his margin in Oyster Bay and Hempstead.


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Mon Mar 09, 2009 at 09:00:35 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

LI Town results

If you look at the Master database and export it into Excel you can figure it  out (at least for Suffolk)

Babylon Obama 56.78-42.42
Brookhaven  Obama 52.31-46.73
East Hampton Obama 65.93-33.64
Huntington  Obama 52.16-47.03
Islip   Obama 53.91-45.27
Riverhead McCain 50.79-48.06
Shelter Island  Obama 57.46-41.59
Smithtown McCain 56.37-42.78
Sothampton Obama 56.48-42.61
Southold  McCain 50.13-48.95

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by: Smash255 @ Mon Mar 09, 2009 at 18:25:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Broken down a little further

Decided to play around with the Town results a little more and break the Towns of Babylon, Islip & Smithtown, by CD as well (all of Huntington is in the 2nd, all of the others are only in the 1st)

Babylon (2nd) Obama 66.79-32.60
Babylon (3rd) McCain 51.39-47.63

Islip (2nd) Obama 56.77-42.42
Islip (3rd) McCain 56.40-42.71

Smithtown (1st) McCain 57.46-41.69
Smithtown (2nd) McCain 53.87-45.27

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by: Smash255 @ Mon Mar 09, 2009 at 21:08:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

RE: NY 3rd bench

I know you have stated many times that there is no chance of getting Thomas R. Suozzi to run, which I don't get at all.

There should be some way.

However, what of Kathleen Rice, could she run?

Would she run, and how well would she do?

I love the name of the law school she graduated from.  Real good name.

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by: etl @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 00:34:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rice would be a good nominee

but I think the chances of getting her to run are about as good as Suozzi's. I expect her to be NYS Attorney General someday.

Rice does actually live in the district.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 00:45:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rice

Unfortunately Suozzi isn't going to run for the seat.  If he wanted it he would have run already and would be sitting there now.

Rice is a possibility, though as someone else stated she might have her eyes set on AG instead.  She is up for re-election for DA this year and the GOP might not even challenge her.  If Cuomo runs a Primary against Paterson it would open up the AG slot, now the question is would she want to run for AG the year after re-election?  Or run for the house seat even?  She would basically need to start the run right after Election Day, and that might not be something she would want to do even if she basically had no opponent.  If she would run against King, she would very likely win, and if it was an open seat she would basically be assured the seat.  

If she does decide to run for the seat I think it would be more likely in 2012 rather than 2010 (providing its still in GOP hands) for no other reason other than she may not want to run for election in two consecutive years.  Although the fact that the GOP is likely to throw a no-name or perhaps even not challenge her at all in her re-election bid might make her a bit more willing to run for election in two consecutive years than if she was actually facing a serious challenge for re-election this year.

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by: Smash255 @ Sun Mar 08, 2009 at 07:08:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

On the other hand

Obama probably underperforms a generic Democrat by a substantial margin on Long Island.  My guess is that if say Joe Biden was the Presidential candidate in 2008, he would have beaten McCain by 5-10% in NY-3.

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by: IHateBush @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 01:38:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Probably

Hillary Clinton probably would've carried the district, but even then only be a small amount and only because New York is her home state.

Obama won Long Island about 54%-46% or therearounds...he did remarkably better than Kerry in Suffolk County (Obama 53%-47% vs. Kerry 50%-49%) but only slightly better than Kerry in Nassau County (Kerry won Nassau 53%-46%, Obama won it 54%-45%)

Long Island really is a 53%-47% Democrat place.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Sun Mar 08, 2009 at 07:32:45 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It is 53-47 Democrat

if the country is 50-50.  When the country was where it was in 2008, a generic Democrat (i.e. Joe Biden) should have won Long Island by 12-15%, and Obama underperformed significantly.  And since Obama probably did better than a normal Democrat among the minority and student areas, he underperformed even more severely among the white working class in Long Island.

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by: IHateBush @ Sun Mar 08, 2009 at 08:36:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Take it from someone from Long Island

other Democrats might have done a little better but most of those who voted for McCain were not voting for ANY Democrat.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Sun Mar 08, 2009 at 18:00:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well most of those who voted for McCain

anywhere were not voting for any Democrat.  What I'm saying is that McCain would have gotten 42=43% on LI against Biden, while he got 45-46 against Obama.  That still means that 93% of those who voted for McCain against Obama would have voted for McCain against Biden.

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by: IHateBush @ Sun Mar 08, 2009 at 19:03:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

McCain stronger than other Republicans

I do think the Democrats are likely to fare better on LI in the future than Obama did this year.  I think part of it might be the ethnic factor, Long Island's large Italian & Irish population may have vote for Obama in lesser numbers than they would another Democrat, but I think more than anything else it was just than McCain was fairly strong here.  Huckabee or anyone else representing the hard Christian right of the GOP would have been obliterated on LI and done worse than Bush did here in 2000.  McCain won the Republican Primary here in 2000, and that was after Bush already had it locked up.  McCain only won three cocnties on LI (Nassau, Suffolk & Manhattan) in the 2000 Primaries.  Long Island has a large number of the moderate to liberal Rockefeller type Republicans (especially on social issues) a group which Bush had major problems with in 2000 and went back to the GOP for McCain, but McCain may have been one of the very few Republican candidates they would have voted for.

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by: Smash255 @ Sun Mar 08, 2009 at 23:07:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Evangelical Republicans

It seems that even many white, working class Catholic swing voters, in the NYC area, arent big on evangelical Republicans. Bush didnt seem to do well at all in many of those areas in 2000. Then 9/11 happened and we saw what happened in the voting booth in 2004. Maybe some of it is a Catholic/Protestant divide, maybe some of it was Bush's 'cowboy' persona (which probably was accepted more in rural areas of SW PA than urban areas of NYC). I think Huckabee, even with his populism, could have done pretty poorly there. Romney might have done as good as McCain, as there doesnt seem to be a Catholic/Mormon divide.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Mon Mar 09, 2009 at 05:46:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

just not socially conservative

I don't think Romney would have done as well as McCain on LI, he certainly would have done better than Huckabee though.  I really don't think it is a Catholic/Protestant divide, as much as Long Island just isn't a hotbed of social conservatism by any stretch of the imagination.  The working class Catholic areas tend to be much more law and order conservative than social conservative, which is likely why McCain had the appeal he did in some of these areas and Bush didn't.  You likely have a larger amount of pro-choice, pro-gay marriage McCain voters on Long Island than virtually any other part of the country.

I was surprised Obama didn't do better on LI than what he did especially considering McCain didn't run as the maverick he did in 2000, but because of how well he did here it 2000, he may have been able to hold onto the 'maverick' image more here than other parts of the country.  Other than Rudy no other Republican would have done nearly as well, and if the GOP does move in the more conservative direction and becoming the party of Limbaugh they seemed to be headed, I would expect the Presidential numbers to be much closer to the Goe 2000 numbers than the 08 numbers.

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by: Smash255 @ Mon Mar 09, 2009 at 06:08:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Blue collar whites in metro NYC

Yeah ive heard from a few people here that blue collar whites, in this area (and others, such as Philly) arent socially conservative. Im sure theyre not 'activists' for any liberal social issues by any means and I would think are moderate on abortion (for example partial birth abortion and parental notification while still favoring Roe v Wade) but they do seem like the type who wouldnt be rabid social conservatives.

Here in the south, many people dont realize that many rural, blue collar whites arent socially conservative either. Im talking the 'Larry the Cable Guy', 'Stone Cold Steve Austin' and "trailer park" types. If youre around them you know who I mean. Sure theyre extremely pro-gun and have pretty conservative views on immigration (im not sayin those two aforementioned folks do) but they really dont give a crap about the Religious Right. Hell, they dont even attend church really (besides weddings and funerals). Theyre beer drinkin (many even pot smokin), foul mouthed 'sons a guns'. Many may have a personal opposition to abortion and homosexuality (well...towards gay men anyway. They probably like lesbians) but they dont really vote on that it seems. Their vote is more likely to be based on guns, immigration, government programs, their opinion on the federal govt, etc.  

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Tue Mar 10, 2009 at 04:10:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It had little to do with religion

and everything to do with national security. Long Island is incredibly conservative when it comes to national security, like Staten Island, Southern Brooklyn and parts of ethnically white Queens. These voters may be pro-choice, pro-gay rights, pro-stem cell research, even pro-labor and economically populist.

But Long Island is a place where FISA is popular and it's not radical to talk about nuking Tehran.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Mon Mar 09, 2009 at 06:48:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

national security played a biig role

I wouldn't quite put LI in the same class as Staten Island when it comes to being conservative on national security issues, and I don't think nuking Tehran is all that popular here, the Iraq war is very unpopular on LI.  With that being said I do agree that LI is generally fairly conservative on national security issues/ law and order issues.  

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by: Smash255 @ Mon Mar 09, 2009 at 07:12:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The war is only unpopular because it went bad

But I was in college on Long Island until 2006 and even at that point, the war was still more popular than it was where I live in Queens...I would estimate that about 45%-50% still supported the war as late as May 2006.

When the war started in 2003...it was unbelievably popular. We had protests on campus, but the pro-war counterprotest was LARGER.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Mon Mar 09, 2009 at 08:59:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

What college

What college on LI did you go to?  I graduated from Stony Brook in 04 and the war was very unpopular there.

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by: Smash255 @ Mon Mar 09, 2009 at 18:28:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Affluent liberals on LI

I just cant see those folks being neo-cons. At least not those under 50.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Tue Mar 10, 2009 at 04:14:53 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Maybe the working class

Maybe those are but not the affluent i mean.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Tue Mar 10, 2009 at 04:15:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

9/11 factor

I would agree that the working class on LI tend to be more conservative on national security issues than the affluent.  I do think that some affluent LI liberals might be a bit more conservative on national security issuean those with similar views in other parts of the country in part due to many of them having close ties & working in Downtown Manhattan on 9/11.  This may explain why areas such as Great Neck, which is still very liberal gave Gore over 80% of the vote in some precincts, but likely was in the 60's for Obama.  Great Neck's Orthodox population has grown a bit since 2000 (though not nearly the size of Lawrence) which may explain some of it, but national security issues likely played a role in why Obama's victory there wasn't the size of Gore's, despite the area as a whole being quite liberal.  

With that being said I do think as a whole the liberal affluent areas on LI such as in NW Nassau, east-central Nassau (Israel's district) as well as southern portions of Bellmore & Merrick are still fairly liberal on national security issues.  However, in the aftermath of 9/11 does have a segment which might be liberal on everything else, but fairly conservative on the national security issues that will vote on the issue depending on the candidate.  It will still be strongly Democratic, but if the GOP candidate has 'strong' national security credentials it may not put up some of the absolutely massive margins it would put up if the GOP candidate was part of the religious right.

I think the same holds true for some of the white working class areas, and you probably have more of them which are conservative on national security issues than some of the affluent white areas, but as a whole the white working class areas aren't as liberal as some of the upper middle class and upper class white areas are.  

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by: Smash255 @ Tue Mar 10, 2009 at 05:16:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

So basically they are very very conservative

on national security and crime and basically liberal on everything else.

Which is probably why Clinton and Gore won huge landslides in 1996 and 2000 in these places, but Kerry and Obama struggled badly.

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by: IHateBush @ Mon Mar 09, 2009 at 20:48:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Smash is right

McCain was probably second only to Giuliani in being the strongest Republican for the area. I believe McCain would've beaten Gore on Long Island in 2000 if he had won the GOP nomination.

It's important to also realize there was local polling during the campaign (I knew a pollster from Dowling College that polled the Island reguarly) and until Sarah Palin, McCain was ahead of Obama on Long Island.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Mon Mar 09, 2009 at 01:22:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

re: Smash is right

I think McCain beating Gore in 2000 on LI is a bit of a stretch, keep in mind Gore won both Nassau & Suffolk by double digits & Nassau by a shade under 20 points.  I would say McCain probably cut the margin about 5 points from where it would have been under a Generic Republican on LI, and probably in the 8-10 point or so range from a Huckabee type of candidate.  

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by: Smash255 @ Mon Mar 09, 2009 at 01:32:56 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

McCain beating Gore in 2000 on LI

wouldn't be saying that much.  I think McCain would have crushed Gore nationally in a landslide of 7-10% and probably won California and 400 EV.

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by: IHateBush @ Mon Mar 09, 2009 at 20:47:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't understand...

why each state doesn't just post filed candidates and precinct results on the internet.  How hard can it be?  

Wisconsin updates the list of candidates who are running at least every other day once you get close to the deadline.  They have a final list (barring challenges) by noon the next day.  It has every candidate, their party, and their address.  

On the other hand it seems like New York City never posts a list at all, and New York State's doesn't make a whole lot of sense, except maybe to people who are familiar with New York election laws.  

Same thing with results.  Wisconsin has not only a PDF of the precinct by precinct results within 3-4 weeks of the election, but an Excel file which I can sort and find results for statewide candidates in each state senate, state assembly, and U.S. house district and get a complete breakdown of presidential, gubernatorial, U.S. Senate, or AG races by legislative and congressional district within 2 hours.  

And yet, 5 months after the election, we still wait for Nassau County, NY and Tuscaloosa County, AL.  

Now that New York has Democratic control of all three elected parts of the government I would hope that posting this information online would be part of any ethics reform packages that might be considered.  

I know I'm just preaching to the choir here, but I just had to get that out.  

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by: ajwagner @ Mon Mar 02, 2009 at 23:29:02 PM UTC

Once again SSP delivers

I knew what to expect in Colorado and Indiana, when the statewide numbers swing that hard it's generally every single district that posts good gains, but wow...I cannot believe we came within 6% of winning Tancredo's old district.

Redistricting is going to be huge in 2012.  A bunch of representatives are going to find themselves in unwinnable districts.

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by: skaje @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 00:14:09 AM UTC

Redistricting in CO

Itd be most interesting to see a redistricting project for CO done by SSP. But maybe its one of those western states that has a non-partisan committee do the redistricting. As I know, in 2002, CO deliberately made their new district be a 'swing' district. Sure, it went for Obama in a blowout but it was intended to be a swing district. In fact it only went for Kerry by 3 and was around 50/50 for Gore/Bush. If the redistricting isnt non-partisan and the Dems control the Gov. and the legislature, by redistricting time, I wonder how theyll make the lines. Im assuming theyre getting a new district, too. One of their first goals should be to shore up Markey's district. I know it really made a blue turn in 08 but I would think its still a GOP-leaning district at heart. Maybe they can put some of Polis and Perlmutter's district in there. Salazar can also afford to have his district be made slightly more GOP. Sure, hed be more vulnerable in a massive GOP wave year but he seems so popular that hed ride that out. They can work on making Coffman's district much less GOP friendly and also make sure the new district is lean Dem.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 00:40:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

We're tapped out in Colorado at 5-2

I'm sure the big focus will be on shoring up CO-04 for Markey and to a lesser extent making CO-03 (Salazar) and CO-07 (Perlmutter) marginallly more Democratic.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 00:44:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

There's a good chance

that the Dems will control the whole process in CO. My prediction is that all of the Dems will be made as safe  as possible, and the Republicans will be given super Republican districts.

I think it's possible that all of the dems except maybe Markey and Salazar could be given districts that Join Kerry won, which would make them pretty safe.  

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by: andgarden @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 00:47:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

All the Dems except Markey and Salazar?

Meaning DeGette, Polis, and Perlmutter?  They all three already have districts that Kerry won.  In fact, both Gore and Kerry won CO-07, which is the only remotely marginal district of the three.

I'd aim a little higher than that if we in fact do control the entire redistricting process in 2011.  Especially if CO gets an extra district to play with; I'd give that to the Rs and be happy with a 5-3 delegation.  Maybe make two of those three R districts swingable, so that there's 4 safe Ds, one lean D (Salazar), two lean Rs (CO-06 and the new district), and one safe R (CO-05).

I'd rather shore up Markey than play too hard for that extra district.  Although if we're allowed to dilute CO-01 a bit, then maybe we could reach further.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

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by: texas dem @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 01:34:38 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I doubt we can easily dislodge Coffman

in CO-6.  Now if Tancredo were still there, then it would be worth trying to make that district more Democratic and try to win it.

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by: IHateBush @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 01:39:57 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I have a strong feeling

Coffman will run for Gov in 2014 when Ritter gets term-limited out (assuming he wins next year).

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by: DavidNYC @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 05:00:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Maybe

Maybe the CO Dems can just find a way to pack all the Republicans into the Colorado Springs-based district ;). Though its already about as Republican as possible.  

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 01:43:36 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not so

See my point downthread.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

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by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Wed Mar 04, 2009 at 03:33:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The Perlmutter district

is what I have in mind, really. It was drawn to be a balanced district. Salazar and Markey could obviously be safer, but I wonder if they could be put in Kerry districts without endangering other Democrats.  

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by: andgarden @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 01:43:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

WAS drawn 50/50

Now it's a 59-40 district.  A perfect example of the change between 2000 and now.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 02:40:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I would really enjoy playing the redistricting game with Colorado.

That would be a real pleasure.  I wonder if anyone around has the programming skills to actually build a user-friendly redistricting game with real states.  

It would be a particularly good project for someone who wanted to advance the cause of redistricting commissions, because showing how easy it is to change outcomes by editing the lines could help galvanize public opinion in that direction.  Show the voters of Colorado or Florida that their delegation depends almost entirely on who's drawing the lines and they might regard the issue with the seriousness it merits.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

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by: texas dem @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 04:18:30 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well, if you take a sophisticated look at the

redistricting game, then you learn that drawing the map isn't everything. What looks like a majority can be a considerable minority under many circumstances.

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by: andgarden @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 04:20:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't think I know exactly what you mean by this.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

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by: texas dem @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 07:11:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think there's a fine line

between a gerrymander and just drawing competitive districts. What best distinguishes a gerrymander, in my mind, is a map that just looks vindictive. (your example above about splitting up Austin qualifies).  

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by: andgarden @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 07:18:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Data, Data, Data, Data, Data

Before you can make a good redistricting program you need several pieces of data:

1) Precinct level census figures
2) Precinct level election results
3) Shape files for the precincts (ERSI is a popular format, but others may be acceptable as well.)

If these can be cheaply obtained, I'd be willing to work on a redistricting tool.  I probably couldn't do it entirely by myself, since I work full time, but it might be a project that other programmers would be willing to volunteer for as well.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

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by: Marcus @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 04:59:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I can help.

I have more free time due to being unemployed. --Though I'm not happy about that.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

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by: californianintexas @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 05:23:32 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hooray Unemployment!

Recession sucks!

This is why I'm going back to school in the fall, nothing else to do.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 06:14:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Precinct level election results...

are the hardest to come by. We've come across some of that stuff in the Pres-by-CD project.

Shapefiles are given here: http://www2.census.gov/cgi-bin...

You have to go to the county level for voting precincts though.

Data by census block is available from the Census Bureau here: http://factfinder.census.gov/s...

The only problem is to get these transferred from blocks into multi-block 'Voting Tabulation Districts' - the Census equivalent of precincts.

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by: jeffmd @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 05:36:57 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm an idiot...

Choose Summary File 10, the Census 2000 Redistricting Data. Gives you population tabulated by voting precinct, along with racial data.

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by: jeffmd @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 05:44:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I did this for Texas when I was an undergrad in a GIS class.

It was not at all impossible.  The difficult part was that the smallest unit of census data (blocks?) and the smallest unit of voting data (precincts) do not overlap perfectly.  I think I wound up skipping the smallest unit of census data, using "block groups" instead, and then just dumping precincts into the block group that the majority of the area of the precinct was in.  That would certainly be good enough for this kind of demonstration project.

It was a total pain in the ass, by the way; I'd bitten off a lot more than I was comfortably prepared to chew.  But it was doable.  The datafiles were just really damn big.

Then I tried to do some statistical analysis that was totally over my head, and I barely managed to get anything resembling my initial proposal turned in.  I had the statistics-machine (as that's about all I understood of it) automatically sort out the blockgroups into twenty different demographically similar typologies, which were indeed recognizeable as rural white, rural Hispanic, black suburban, black urban, white surburban, wealthy urban, etc.  Even the student neighborhoods and military bases showed up as distinct and easily recognizeable categories.  

Unfortunately, my redistricting project (this was in 2003, during the protracted fight over DeLay's stunt) died there, as the due date was the next morning and I didn't get to start drawing districts.  My idea was to draw districts that would keep like block-groups together as much as possible, and then turn on the voting information to see what my "fair, community-of-interest" districts had produced in partisan terms.  

I actually think I would have gotten very few real swing districts this way, although that was my goal at the time: "fair", "appropriate" districts that held together communities of interest (DeLay was dismembering my beloved Austin at the time), and that might also be competitive.  I bet they wouldn't have been.  But alas, finals came and I never got to find out.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

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by: texas dem @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 07:10:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Redistricting Computer Game?

This is a very interesting idea.

You'd first have to decide whether you want to make a tool or a game.  A tool would be of more practical use, but a game could be both fun and educational.

I'm developing a related (but nowhere near similar) game at the moment, myself.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Wed Mar 04, 2009 at 03:57:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

You're not creative enough, Chad!

Maxed out in Colorado--I don't think so.  I redistricted Colorado over at DKos in the wake of the DNC appearance and here's what I did.  I'm not sure how to turn it into map data: maybe someone will help?  

WARNING: Below is an absolutely shameless partisan gerrymander.  Despite Democrats handily controlling all three branches, I would expect the bipartisanship seen at the statehouse to nix this right off the bat. Here we go (a 6-1 delegation).

Conservatively, I think Admiral Naismith is right about maxing out on a 5-2 delegation.  But there is a way to blue Colorado's 4th district a little more to help Democratic candidate Betsy Markey if she wins and someone else if she doesn't.  As it stands, the 4th takes in only the barest northeast corner of Boulder County, including only Longmont.  Let's give it at least the eastern half of the county, including Lafayette and Louisville (maybe even Broomfield).  If we don't mind small appendages on districts, we can even include the town of Lyons to Boulder's north and the "People's Republic of Nederland" to its west (I once saw a road cleanup sign on behalf of Furious Howard Brown and the Mountain Wiccans outside of Nederland---NOT KIDDING. It also has a wonderful crystal shop and is a definite progressive, counterculture bastion). We just need Boulder and it's outlet to the mountain counties to remain in the 2nd.

Here's where things get fun.  Let's get packing...Republican voters, that is.  I've always wondered if it were actually possible to draw the most Republican chunks of the 5th and 6th together to create a beastly R+20 something monstrosity stretching from just south of Parker, which, like northern Douglas county as a whole, is slowly blueing, down I-25 to the Colorado Springs metro area, but NOT including downtown Colorado Springs or Manitou Springs and Old Colorado City to its immediate west, which are true swing areas actually represented on the state level by Democrats.  So, what you'd have is a combination of state Senate Districts 4, 9, 10, and 12 minus most of the sparsely populated areas in the West half of the 4th, including the Pike National Forest, Woodland Park, and Cripple Creek (shifted to John Salazar) and Leadville and Fairplay (shifted either to the 3rd or maybe even to the 2nd in the case of Fairplay since it already has the similar and nearby Summitt County.  In addition, small salient of SD 12 that would go to Salazar in order to provide a connection for the shifted downtown Colorado Springs and Manitou Springs, which would be out of the 5th district.  This leaves the northern end of the Springs (replete with Focus on the Family and the Air Force Academy), connected to rural eastern El Paso County, the Black Forest area northeast of Colorado Springs, and the most conservative cities/towns in Douglas County along I-25. I'm not sure about population totals here, but I think removing the dead even (and blueing) SD-11 (Colorado Springs and Manitou Springs) might just make this work.

The above discussion is entirely moot if we gain a district, which is likely.  Starting from a 5-2 standpoint, I can see no rational place to add a district that isn't fairly Republican, especially since most of the growth has been in the southern and northeastern Denver suburbs.  It might be doable if we split Ed Perlmutter's 7th in two, creating a suburban district consisting of Aurora, Commerce City, and other areas adjacent to the airport.

Another choice would be a swingy Jefferson County based district (Centered on Wheat Ridge and Golden), south of the Boulder-based 2nd, west of Denver, but I'm not sure how to give it enough people.  Finally, I wouldn't want a district in northern Douglas/Arapahoe counties around Parker and Centennial, unless the Denver-based 1st was split in half and the southern half given to it.  I'm not sure if the 1st has ever been split in two pieces, but it certainly has remained intact over my 27 years on this Earth, and the southern suburbs might be purple in a decade, but are still fairly reddish now (just not crimson-red like they used to be).

Update:

With the capture of the Ft. Carson house seat in El Paso County, I think a new, only lean R, district might be developable out of Downtown Colorado Springs and its southern neighborhoods (rather than shiftting them to other districts).  Everything north and east would be shifted with most of Douglas County as described above into a red monstrosity.

Comments welcome.


30, male, Democratic, CO-01

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by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Wed Mar 04, 2009 at 03:32:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nederland

Its awesome that you talked about Nederland. My stepaunt owns a house there and I was over there for about a week back in 2001. You are exactly right...its a hippie town. And Im sure very left wing. Its definitely the impression I got. They have lovely shops there, a nice german restaurant and an exceptional view of the mountains. Her house, which is located on a hill, has a breathtaking view of the mountains. Only bad thing about Nederland...even the small houses cost a fortune. It is such an expensive town to live in.  

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Wed Mar 04, 2009 at 06:29:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Redistricting in Colorado

is done by the legislature. If the legislature is unable to agree on a map (as was the case after 2000), it is done by a judge.

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by: fatcathobbes @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 02:52:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dems control everything there now

If that continues into 2010, they'll quickly agree on a map.

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by: andgarden @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 02:53:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

We always give you

the best ganja -- bar none.

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by: James L. @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 00:42:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]