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Crowdsourcing Pres-by-CD: Fourth Wave of Results

by: Crisitunity

Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 5:21 PM EST


When we at SSP first hatched the idea of compiling some numbers for presidential election results for congressional districts, we were thinking we'd be lucky to get to 60 or maybe 100 districts. After all, we couldn't track down precinct-level data for hundreds of counties, sort out what precinct goes into what district, and pick apart large metro counties with thousands and thousands of precincts... could we?

Well, with the aid of SSP's crack cadre of some of the brightest and most tenacious elections geeks out there -- in particular the relentless number cruncher jeffmd and master BoE cajoler Democratic Luntz -- we're closing in on completing all 435 districts. With another 54 added to the pile today, we're near the 90% mark, with only 51 remaining incomplete. If you want to see all district percentages so far, the link is here; you can also check out the diaries where we released the numbers in more detail here, here, and here.

DistrictObama # McCain #Other #2008 %2004 %2000 %
AL-02101,923179,3261,49936.1/63.433/6738/61
AL-05115,773185,6403,36438.0/60.939/6044/54
CO-02171,98882,5944,15966.5/31.958/4152/43
CO-04168,637171,6906,22948.7/49.541/5837/57
MA-03175,538117,7085,61358.7/39.459/4059/35
MA-04197,306107,4595,17563.7/34.765/3365/29
MO-01246,45159,9112,84979.7/19.475/2572/26
MO-03189,730124,5374,58959.5/39.157/4354/43
MO-04114,401183,1674,71237.9/60.635/6440/58
MO-05198,259110,0573,37163.6/35.359/4060/37
MO-06148,997179,0745,89444.6/53.642/5744/53
MO-07114,752204,2465,01335.4/63.032/6736/62
NJ-03181,004162,3393,82852.1/46.849/5154/43
NJ-05152,506179,7813,42845.4/53.643/5745/52
NJ-06149,40098,9592,79159.5/39.457/4361/35
NJ-07177,471165,4304,01651.2/47.747/5348/49
NJ-08165,34693,7342,09863.3/35.959/4160/37
NJ-09158,93399,1442,27061.1/38.159/4163/34
NJ-10208,15130,1921,04887.0/12.682/1883/16
NJ-11154,300182,6043,25345.4/53.742/5843/54
NJ-13155,01250,3691,75074.8/24.369/3172/25
NY-01165,805153,4193,03251.5/47.649/4952/44
NY-08184,68263,7692,12173.7/25.572/2774/18
NY-10205,92919,67760891.0/8.786/1388/8
NY-11206,65620,70999990.5/9.186/1383/9
NY-13108,439112,4911,55848.7/50.645/5552/44
NY-15226,04914,9541,52293.2/6.290/987/7
NY-16158,6718,43733594.8/5.089/1092/5
NY-17172,47966,0271,31271.9/27.567/3369/27
NY-20167,827157,8795,28650.7/47.746/5444/51
NY-21179,322123,3785,73358.1/40.055/4356/39
NY-22168,598111,8964,16859.2/39.354/4551/42
NY-23133,367119,9434,11251.8/46.647/5147/49
NY-24139,832133,2774,74350.3/48.047/5347/48
NY-25177,780135,9315,21655.7/42.650/4851/45
NY-29146,698153,4323,96648.2/50.542/5643/53
OH-14168,381169,1315,19349.1/49.447/5344/52
OK-01114,446205,329035.8/64.235/6537/62
OK-0291,481174,351034.4/65.641/5947/52
OK-0378,434210,104027.2/72.828/7234/65
OK-04101,418200,192033.6/66.433/6738/61
OK-05116,717170,189040.7/59.336/6438/62
PA-03143,416143,4334,06649.3/49.347/5347/51
PA-04149,661185,0523,38544.3/54.745/5446/52
PA-05123,503152,9463,94444.1/54.639/6138/59
PA-06207,911148,2313,51657.8/41.252/4849/49
PA-07186,232142,9443,84555.9/42.953/4751/47
PA-0998,430176,0233,36835.4/63.433/6734/64
PA-10131,335155,4373,72145.2/53.540/6041/56
PA-13188,903130,6993,00958.6/40.556/4356/42
PA-19142,398187,8573,69842.6/56.336/6436/61
UT-01103,737197,4579,45233.4/63.625/7327/68
UT-02138,790202,53411,55239.3/57.431/6631/67
UT-0385,143196,03911,36129.1/67.020/7724/75

Some points of interest to check out in this batch: look at PA-06, with some of the steepest improvement in all of Pennsylvania. Any question why Jim Gerlach may be planning to cash it in and run for governor in 2010? It might be because his district just shot past PA-07 and PA-08 to become the bluest all-suburban district in the Philly area.

We have data for most of upstate New York (except for Erie County, where Buffalo is), and it's striking that Obama improved on Kerry at a much greater clip upstate than in the NYC metro area. One thing that might give us some optimism heading into the NY-20 special election is the nearly 6-point improvement, as well as the fact that the Dem candidate actually won the district in the first time since, well, probably Barry Goldwater. But this is pretty typical across upstate NY, as we also flipped NY-23 and NY-24, moved NY-25 from swing to pretty safe D, and almost even won in New York's reddest district of NY-29. Compare this with, say, the whiter urban districts, like NY-08 or especially NY-13 (Staten Island and white ethnic parts of Brooklyn), where Obama lost narrowly while barely improving on Kerry's numbers, and thus nearly overtaking NY-29 as New York's reddest district.

The biggest improvements here, as in previous installments are in the Mountain West. This is plain to see in Colorado, not just in the 2nd (where the improvement over 2000 is gigantic, although that may have to do with the huge Nader effect among Boulder's granola-munching crowd) but also in the 4th, where Obama lost by less than a point where Gore lost by 20. And although we didn't come even close in Utah, some of the biggest percentage gains were there. Look for UT-03 to lose its worst-PVI-in-the-nation status, as Obama made up 9 points there on Kerry.

Is there any bad news to report here? Well, we came oh-so-close to flipping OH-14 in Cleveland's suburbs (fewer than 1,000 votes), while not moving the numbers much there. And we lost ground in AL-05, the Appalachian portion of Alabama, and PA-04, which, like PA-12, is in the collar counties around Pittsburgh where the Rust Belt fades into the Appalachians.

Probably least appetizing are the numbers out of Oklahoma, but even it provides some interesting insights into the changes from the old Democratic coalition to the current Democratic coalition. Most of the state stayed in neutral over the decade, but compare OK-02 (rural NE Oklahoma around Muskogee) vs. OK-05 (Oklahoma City). We're getting absolutely hammered in the 2nd, a traditionally Yellow Doggish area that Gore almost won. On the other hand, we shot up in the 5th, the most cosmopolitan part of the state.

So what's left to do? Our main task is, at this point, getting data from counties who have been unresponsive or are charging an arm and a leg for it. If you're interested in helping out, check out this diary for a primer; here's our database of elections boards to contact. And, as always, here's our master crowdsourcing database... although, as you might notice, most of those blanks have been filled in! Thanks to you guys, of course.

One final caveat: these numbers are subject to change slightly, as we refine the data. In fact, in a few days I'll be posting a list of several dozen updated districts. None of these changes should amount to more than a fraction of a percentage point, but caution is warranted where a fraction of a percent would make a lot of difference in how the district is perceived (for instance, PA-03, where a very small revision could make all the difference in terms of McCain's 17-vote margin in the district).

Crisitunity :: Crowdsourcing Pres-by-CD: Fourth Wave of Results
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Weird
OK-02 is traditionally more Democratic, but had a huge fall-off while OK-05 Obama did reasonably well in.  

Just playing catch-up
Urban areas go blue, Rural areas go red.

If Texas is 10 years behind the rest of the nation, Oklahoma is 10 years behind Texas. During my time in N. Texas, Oklahoma was pretty well regarded as our younger, dumber, cousin.

Q: "Why doesn't Texas fall into the Gulf?"
A: "Cause Oklahoma sucks so much."

I hope there are no Okies on this forum.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
HAHA !!!
That is so true. Texans poke so much fun at them, I'm actually thinking it retarded their development a bit.  

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  


[ Parent ]
Culture war
As a wise man once pointed out, they don't smoke marijuana in Muskogee. They don't take their trips on LSD. They don't burn their draft cards in the town square, because they like living right and being free.

Apparently the welcome mat's out for bong-toting peacenik acid freaks in Oklahoma City now, though.


[ Parent ]
Not so much in Tulsa, though.
They're still pretty strong in their Republican preferences.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
OK-02
Even though Oklahoma wasn't a state during the Civil War, most of the settlers of eastern Oklahoma were from Arkansas, Missisippi, etc., so state and local politics in that area is very Democratic (hence why OK-02 has a Dem Congressman; there are precious few local Republican officeholders to speak of.)  But they're quite uncomfortable with national Democrats.  When I was canvassing on the Carson campaign in '04, we were specifically told not to say anything about the Presidential race.  Anyway, it's an area where state and local politics hasn't caught up to the area's preference in national elections.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
Boren probably didn't help
He was one of the more vocal congressmen who refused to endorse Obama. I suspect that made a lot of the surviving core of Yellow Dog Democracts feel alright to break the habit of a lifetime and vote for a Republican.

Still, that probably only counts for a few points. Oklahoma's red enough already.


[ Parent ]
Upstate New York
So it wasn't Gillibrand coattails at all. This is excellent news for the special.

Reddest District
According to our crowdsourcing numbers, TX-13 is currently the reddest one.
Obama 23%, McCain 76%.

This is the panhandle, extremely rural, and includes Wichita Falls and Amarillo.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


Utah was better than I thought
Obama in proved on Kerry's numbers by roughly 9% in all three CD's.

[ Parent ]
The western Great Plains
It's one of the most Republican parts of America; you can see it in the numbers in TX-11 (75-24 McCain), TX-19 (72-27), TX-13, OK-03 (72-27), KS-01 (69-30), and NE-03 (69-30).  The Great Plains parts of Colorado are very red, too; most of those are in CO-04, but they're balanced out by some blue-trending areas like Fort Collins.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
Still waiting for my district
NY-09...Kerry pretty much bombed here...this is probably the most conservative Democratic-leaning district in the state...perhaps NY-01 is more conservative.

Kerry won 56%-44%...not really good for a Brooklyn/Queens district. I think Obama cracked6 60%, but I'd like to see.

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens


But:
How is NY-09 a conservative Dem district? Doesn't most of its territory lie within Brooklyn, one of the most Dem areas in the entire country? And isn't Anthony Weiner quite liberal, like the Manhattan reps?

The NY districts I am most concerned about are NY-01 and NY-13. NY-01 (Tim Bishop) has always been a battleground district. Obama won it, but by only a few points. We still have a lot of work to do there. But Bishop is an excellent fit for the district. NY-13 could use a little work as well. I know it's culturally conservative, but Mike McMahon is a huge improvement over "family values" Vito Fossella. Hopefully, McMahon proves to be somewhat progressive. I am not concerned about NY-29; that area has always been weak for Dems. They can vote like western Pennsylvania all they want.


[ Parent ]
The next redistricting should
take care of McMahon in the future.  Attach Staten Island to either black areas in Brooklyn or liberal areas in Manhattan.  

[ Parent ]
I'm not sure McMahon needs it
Even many of the local Republican hierarchy were supporting him last time. Granted, that was against Straniere, but it seems like he'll have enough cross-over appeal to be more or less safe.

That said, if the population of Staten Island is shrinking, I expect Nadler won't mind losing a little of his district to McMahon.

I'd worry more about Weiner's district. Not that I'd worry a great deal, but on the off-chance that he becomes mayor it'd be useful for his district not to be vulnerable. Taking in a little territory from Nadler and Towns so as to make it just a little more Dem-friendly would be fairly painless and insure against surprises.

However, if we're worrying anywhere in NY, it should be on Long Island. NY-01 may be going the wrong way and we don't have a district with enough strength to equalise everything out and make all our seats completely safe.

That said, Republicans don't hold many D+ seats, so it's more a niggle than a real concern.


[ Parent ]
But:
Is NY-01 really going the wrong way, do you think? I believe it is going in a Dem direction, with a good progressive (Bishop) firmly entrenched. That's what I think. I have met Mr. Bishop before- and he certainly knows what he's doing.

[ Parent ]
NY-01 is pretty steady
The biggest problem for the Democrats out there is Smithtown...Smithtown is the "Texas of Long Island." A Democrat just can't get more than 40% there.

It would be a Republican district if not for the Democratic lean of The Hamptons.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens


[ Parent ]
It's the "Joos" (jking)
Actually, NY-9 and NY-13 border each other and share a lot of cultural similarity. NY-9 is chock full of orthodox Jews and most resistant to statewide and city dems, especially since the Crown Heights riot. NY-13 is the same and was actually ancestrally republican though it's full of old white ethnics working calss Irish, Italians and some Dutch/German stock. Guiliani won big in these 2 districts and remeber, Barack Hussein Obama ain't a name you can slide by without these guys noticing.  

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  


[ Parent ]
Well next time around
these guys should be represented by black and Hispanic Democrats.  Stick these areas in the CD-10, CD-11, and CD-12.

[ Parent ]
We did that once
In 1990, the most conservative parts of Southern Queens; Ozone Park, Howard Beach and Woodhaven, where I'm from, were put into a majority black district.

We got Floyd Flake

Look him up. He wasn't exactly a model progressive.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens


[ Parent ]
Were the Conservative white parts of the district
really related to why Flake won in the first place? I assume the Democratic primary was determinative.  

[ Parent ]
Yeah
Flake was in a divisive primary with the more liberal Alton Waldon who was elected in a contentious special election after the death of Joe Addabbo in 1986 (when I was four years old).

Waldon won the special, Flake ran in the primary against him for the general and he appealed to white Italian/Irish voters in the Howard Beach, Ozone Park, Woodhaven, Rosedale and Rockaway Park parts of the district with social conservative and law & order issues (he was pro-life, anti-gay, pro-aggressive crime fighting, which probably led to the police brutality that has become a scourge of our city).

Flake won with the help of white conservative Democrats and held the seat until 1998. In 1990, those conservative white areas were moved into Chuck Schumer's district creating the district we have now.

In 1998 when Schumer left for Senate, Anthony Weiner actually ran to the right in the Democratic Primary against the more progressive Melinda Katz. Weiner won. If you ever saw his policies toward Israel, he's closly aligned with Joe Lieberman.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens


[ Parent ]
I probably should point out
the white conservatives are mostly Democrats...in the mold of Western Pennsylvania pro-union but otherwise conservative Democrats.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Probably not like W. PA
Not particularly many Jews out there.  

[ Parent ]
Well not the Jews
In the Queens portion of the district, the Jews are fairly liberal, but the part of the district I'm talking about used to be in the 6th district in Southern Queens and was almost entirely Italian, Irish, Polish Catholic Conservative.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Sounds like south Philly
where, incidentally, Obama won all but one ward (the 26th, which W also carried).  

[ Parent ]
Yeah
racial problems also exist here (see Howard Beach 1989). I actually had a battle with some dude on MyDD who thinks none of this is true and I'm making it all up.


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
What's strange is that elections
tend to be much more divisive on the local level than the national level in inner city situations.  

[ Parent ]
RE: South Philly
I would never use the term "Catholic conservative" to describe my own Italian relatives, including the men, or perhaps especially the men.

"Guiliani stronghold" actually would be a very good description of them.  Politically secular, they combine socially liberal views with "tough on crime" crap.

There are still some down in South Philly, a few up on Orthodox Street where they went next, but the ones in the city itself are mainly up in Tacony, Torresdale, Mayfair, Rhawnhurst, and a few other places up there, the first two especially.  

If they had their way, as well as some of the other Italian families in those parts that we have known for decades now, we would have had a Mayor Lynne Abraham by now.  Apparently Mayor Nutter is sufficiently tough on crime because they, particularly my father, thinks he's wonderful.

They're definitely not liberal Democrats by any means, but "Catholic conservative" would be just as inappropriate.  I'll guarantee you the ones I know are going to be supporting Allyson Schwartz for U.S. Senate if she runs.  She'd be the one that would excite them the most.

People talk about us being a melting pot, as if we were somehow more united as a people as a whole in the past.  Well, we obviously weren't, and those old divisions and tribal lines of the past I would say never have gone away, most especially in the places I am talking about.

Though not addressing any comment specifically, I would like to add that someone can live near a people, live in the same district as they do, but still misunderstand them, because they are still looking from the outside in.

I noticed that on occasion here.  The lines aren't so simple as some have concluded that they are.


[ Parent ]
Well in Queens
there are more than a few pro-lifers, anti-gay, and extremely anti-immigrant almost to the point of channeling Tom Tancredo.

Really the only issue they side with their party on is labor issues.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens


[ Parent ]
Well there's not much you can do
There are a lot of Democrats who vote Dem only because of economic issues, and maybe to an small extent on foreign policy.  Without those voters, the Dems are a minority.

My concern is that Peter King is going to win very big (70+% for King as opposed to 55% for McCain) in the white areas of Queens and Brooklyn.  King is pro-labor, pro-gun control, and anti-immigration, and could really sweep these areas, cutting deeply into Gillibrand's edge in the black and Hispanic areas of the city.    


[ Parent ]
Pro-labor?
He's not very pro-labor and these Democrats are actually pretty anti-gun control.

Gillibrand is the perfect Democrat to run in these areas. Actually, she's got huge support where I come from, mainly because of her immigration stances. Run someone like Velasquez and she'll get killed there. Immigration is a HUGE issue and someone who is pro-immigrant will be slaughtered.

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens


[ Parent ]
Peter King is very pro-labor
The Employee Free Choice Act (S. 1041) was introduced for the 110th Congress in the Senate on March 29, 2007 by Senator Edward Kennedy (D-MA), and in the House on February 5, 2006 by Reps. George Miller (D-CA), Robert Andrews (D-NJ), and Peter King (R-NY).  Here is a summary of the bill's core provisions.

http://www.americanrightsatwor...

for a Republican.  He has repeatedly praised unions (once saying in the 1990s that he'd rather side with AFL-CIO head John Sweeney rather than Gingrich) and was an original sponsor of the Employee Free Choice Act. Gillibrand has already begun shifting her position on immigration as well.  I would not blow off a challenge from King, and if he runs, would bury him in a barrage of negative ads from the start, his anti-choice, anti-gay stands should make him DOA in the suburbs.


[ Parent ]
Seems like our Archie Bunkers


[ Parent ]
No question that Nutter's 80%
meant something. He got a fair share of Rizzocrats to vote for him (but so did Clinton, Gore, Obama, and Kerry).

[ Parent ]
Urban ethnic whites in the NE
From what I know about urban ethnic whites in the NE theyre like what you described in south Philly. Secular but tough on crime. Sure, most of the older voters may be conservative Catholic (not sure about that, though) but the younger generations seem to be rather secular. Maybe many also have an anti-gay attitude, as well, Im not entirely sure.  

[ Parent ]
RE: older voters
I'll just add that quite a number of those that I had mentioned as being politically secular and tough on crime (Andgarden quickly and correctly noted them as Rizzocrats) are older male voters, that is old enough to have been able to have been of voting age when Mayor Rizzo knocked down Milton Street, which I wasn't as I am younger than that.

They are more churchy than their younger counterparts, but still very politically secular.  I'll also add that back at St. Leo's, the men were more likely to devoutly ignore the priests than the women, particularly on anything remotely political.

In reality, the worst of the type you mentioned are some really old women, who, fortunately for us, are still voting against Herbert Hoover in 2008.

As for the anti-gay attitude, some can give the impression of anti-gay with some of the stupid tough on crime rhetoric I have heard in the past, where they use gay, and various synonyms for gay, are used interchangeably with bad and/or gutless (they are usually both for them) people.  (You can probably think of a few choice Rizzo quotes along those lines.)  However, these same people's views on how to deal with same-sex unions end up being on the progressive end.  

Again, secular and tough on crime.


[ Parent ]
Um Flake was elected in 1986
before the redistricting in 1991 that put these areas into his district.

[ Parent ]
My bad
the redistricting happened in 1981, not 1991.

[ Parent ]
Nadler's district
I know the Brooklyn parts of Nadler's Manhattan based district (NY-8) went for Bush in 2004. Im guessing theyre similar in demographics to the Brooklyn areas of NY-9 and NY-13.

[ Parent ]
This is a Giuliani stronghold
although he was unpopular in my neighborhood, this district since 9/11 has become the "Torture Muslims, Bomb Iran, Viva Israel" district.

It's mostly orthodox Jews, Italian conservatives, Irish firefighters.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens


[ Parent ]
As I asked above
Could Peter King sweep these areas with huge majorities in 2010?  He fits white working class NYC to a T.  
If so, we are really going to have our work cut out to turn out blacks and Hispanics in the rest of NYC.  Gillibrand should win upstate solidly, but will lose Long Island in a landslide, so I think the Senate race will be fairly close.  If blacks and Hispanics don't turn out, we could be in trouble.

[ Parent ]
The Democratic Party
needs to get blacks and Hispanics to vote more period.  What a huge part of our base that we allow to sit on the side lines election after election.

[ Parent ]
not against Gillibrand
against someone like Velasquez or even Maloney, but not against a Kirsten Gillibrand. You really have to run to the right on issues like immigration and gun control to win these areas.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
According to the spreadsheet
Obama apparently lost the Brooklyn part of the district 57-42.  But most of the district is in Queens.

Obama also lost the Brooklyn part of NY-8 and won the Brooklyn part of NY-13 52-47.

The whites in Brooklyn seem rather Republican after 9/11, I thought the most Repub areas (Bay Ridge, Boro Park, Dyker Heights) were stuck in the 13th, but apparently Obama did better there than he did in the areas of the 8th and 9th.

I think in the next redistricting, some of these areas need to be stuffed in the black/Hispanic majority districts, and far far away from the Staten Island district (which really should be attached to hard core liberal areas in Manhattan or black areas in Brooklyn.


[ Parent ]
Ok I was wrong
The hardest core Repub areas of Brooklyn were stuck in the 8th district, not the 13th, which explains why Obama did so badly in that part of the 8th.

[ Parent ]
You mean the 9th
the 8th is lower Manhattan McCain only got 26% there (probably from the folks making $500k/yr or more).

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  


[ Parent ]
No, he means 8th
The 8th also has a section in Brooklyn, composed of mainly parts from the 44th, 47th, and 48th Assembly districts. Mostly Borough Park, Brighton Beach, Gravesend and Coney Island.

The 9th has parts of Sheepshead Bay, Kensington, and Bergen Beach. It also has the Rockaways, but I suppose that's Queens...


[ Parent ]
The 8th
has a dog leg that wanders down from Manhattan to include some of the traditionally Jewish parts of Brooklyn, like Borough Park and Brighton Beach. Here's a map (giant pdf warning). Obama really cratered in these parts of Brooklyn.

[ Parent ]
Obama did not improve on Kerry or match Gore
in the south Florida Jewish districts.  

[ Parent ]
The 8th is corrrect
The reason the 8th is so damn gerrymandered is because if the Brooklyn districts were put in the 11th, 10th or 7th, it would violate the Voting Rights Act, if it were put in the 13th or 9th, it would make those districts solidly Republican.

So it was put in the 8th, which is centered in Manhattan where Republicans get about 10%-20% of the vote. Republicans reguarly win the Brooklyn portion of the district by wide margins. Nadler can keep his liberal voting record because of Manhattan, but he's not really all that popular in Brooklyn. Almost all of the 15%-20% of the vote against Nadler in a given year comes from this part of the district.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens


[ Parent ]
I think that's worse than Kerry did
unfortunately.

I'd still like to see the results districtwide. I haven't seen any Queens results, but if Obama did the same as Kerry, he might've actually lost the district believe it or not.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens


[ Parent ]
Queens results have been delayed
Thanks to the ongoing recount in SD-11. That should wrap up pretty soon, but who knows when we'll see official numbers. I filed a Freedom of Information request for unofficial numbers, but I ain't holding my breath.

[ Parent ]
That's what's doing it
I was wondering. I live in Ozone Park. My election district went to Kerry 64%-36%, but the entire neighborhood was about 52%-48% for Kerry. I've been racking my brain waiting for the results.

By the way, my district is the SD-15, the one won by Joe Addabbo Jr. that flipped the State Senate. We're quite proud of that :-).


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens


[ Parent ]
Nice work!
From what I understand, we have a pretty strong registration edge in the 15th. Does Addabbo look pretty secure for 2010?

[ Parent ]
Oh sure
there is no Republican bench here, no other Republican elected in this district. We had a city councilman from Middle Village, a Republican, who was indicted for rape. He was replaced by a Republican in a contentious, extremely close special election last summer where there was a divided Democratic vote.

We defeated the new GOP city councilman in November.

Addabbo's city council seat, my district, is up in a special election where seven candidates are running on February 24th. If the Republican wins, he will be the only GOP elected districtwide. The scary thing is that he's the only Republican in the race. The other Republican dropped out when his campaign bus ran over a kid a few weeks ago.

I have to make a mention for my candidate in the race, Democrat Frank Gulluscio. He produced our school plays in junior high. He's got Senator Addabbo's endorsement, so he'll probably win.

Anyway, my bigger point is, yes, we have a huge registration advantage, but many of these registered Democrats are actually quite conservative. I was at Joe Addabbo's victory part on election night and many of the people there voted for McCain.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens


[ Parent ]
I owe you guys the Dallas and Tarrant CDs
I will get it to you as soon as I can. In case you are curious though I already completed TX-6, TX-30 and TX-32 and the numbers break down as follows:

TX-6: Obama (39.3%) McCain (59.2%)
TX-30:Obama (81.5%) McCain (17.87%)
tx-32:Obama (46.01%) McCain (52.79%)  

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  


If we are fortunate to win the Texas House
TX-30 needs to shed some black voters.  Regardless, Holder's Justice Dept should reject districts like TX-32 for packing in too many blacks.

[ Parent ]
oooo
Some nice numbers coming out of TX-32.  Plus, TX-3 and TX-24, the other 2 suburban Dallas seats, didn't much worse with Obama getting 42% and 44% respectively.  Redistricting is going to be fun to watch in TX, they're going to have be quite creative to keep all those seats up around Dallas.  It's a shame Frost had to lose only for that same district to probably be recreated in 2010 anyway.  (I'm assuming there will be enough population growth for them to figure out how to make another D seat up there as to shore up the other 3 with new GOP voters.)

[ Parent ]
Thanks!
I think the only CDs we have left in TX are the 15th and 27th.

[ Parent ]
We were done with Texas
I dunno what happened to the spreadsheet that was up there beforehand, but someone finished it, I had done half of it (starting with D/FW moving south through Houston), stopped during the Holidays, came back and found all 32 were done.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
FOUND IT!
http://spreadsheets.google.com...

By JeffMD

TX-15 = 60.79% for Obama - 38.49% for McCain

TX-27 = 48.78% for Obama - 50.32% for McCain

DONE! Fill in the blanks!

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
Not quite...we're missing some info.
We're still missing data from Cameron and San Patricio counties. Cameron (Brownsville) is one of the population centers of the 27th.

Given Obama's strong showing (64%) and the fact that most of the county is in the 27th, I think that Obama won the 27th. An educated guess, of course - we'd need the data to know for sure.


[ Parent ]
You guys sure about PA-03?
Last I checked Obama had it by a few hundred votes. If I'm wrong and you guys are right, McCain won a majority of Congressional districts in the state, even while losing statewide by 11 points.  

Jeff checked this one over more than once
And it does appear that PA-03 went to McCain by just 17 votes.

[ Parent ]
Yes, indeed.
Obama was winning when we had unofficial data from Crawford County, which had roughly 2,000 votes outstanding. Those were enough to put McCain over - but just barely.

[ Parent ]
Gotcha
I think that makes PA-03 the closest Congressional district in the country.  

[ Parent ]
NY-20
Not to take anything away from Obama's impressive showing there, but I'm almost certain he is not the first Democrat to win the district since LBJ.  I seem to recall Clinton carried every district in New York in 1996, and that one wasn't even the closest. The closest was the present-day 26th, which of course had once been represented by his opponent's running mate. Even there, Clinton won by about 300 votes. In the 20th, I think he won by a few thousand. Obama's is probably the biggest win for a Dem since 1964, though.  

Of course
When you go back more than a decade, you're always getting something of an apples-to-oranges comparison (unless you re-do the numbers according to the new lines).

[ Parent ]
Clinton won
Saratoga County by 6% and Columbia by 10% in 1996, so it's still a pretty good bet that he won the district in 1996. Greene was the only county in the current 20th he lost that year.

[ Parent ]
Surreal numbers out of Oklahoma
Obama craters in Boren's district but does even better than Gore in the Oklahoma City district.  The one formerly held by wingnut Ernest Istook, and now by Mary Fallin (reportedly taking a look at running for governor now).

And one more thing: Gerlach is in serious trouble.  The only other Republicans in as unfriendly districts were in Illinois or Delaware.

btw, I'm still trying to wrap my head around the fact that Obama almost won Marilyn Musgrave's district...


Sorry but
The Mass results are unofficial :( and are not the same as the final results.

2010 Race Tracker Wiki

New PVIs
Based on the results I've made some rough calculations of the new PVIs.

Most Republican districts represented by a Democrat:

TX-17   R+19
MS-04   R+19
ID-04   R+17
AL-02   R+16
UT-02   R+14
MO-04   R+14
MS-01   R+13
OK-02   R+13
Al-05   R+12
LA-03   R+12
TN-04   R+12
TN-06   R+12
VA-09   R+11
GA-08   R+10
WV-01   R+9
ND-AL   R+9
SD-AL   R+8
IN-08   R+8

Most Democratic districts represented by a Republican:

LA-02   D+25
DE-AL   D+8
IL-10   D+6
NJ-04   D+4 (est.)
PA-06   D+4
WA-08   D+4
NY-03   D+2 (est.)
PA-15   D+2
OH-12   D+1
IL-06   D+1
MI-11   D+0 (est.)
FL-10   D+0
IA-04   D+0
MN-03   D+0
MI-06   R+0
NY-23   R+1
MI-08   R+1
NJ-07   R+1


Ups..
Instead of NJ-04 I meant NJ-02

Also I made some assumptions for the still missing districts which where probably too optimistic:

If you assume that NJ-02 showes a similar trend as the neighbouring NJ-03 it's new PVI is probably only about D+2.

If you assume the trend in Long Islands NY-03 is similar to NY-01 its new PVI is probably only about R+1.


[ Parent ]
Sheesh
Boren's OK-02 district went from R+5 to R+13.  That might be the biggest swing right in the nation.

[ Parent ]
Not the only one
LA-03, TN-06 and especially TN-04 show smilar trends.

Lots of racists in the South...


[ Parent ]
What about AL-02?
Wasn't it previously R+10?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Oh, was AL-05 R+10?
I think that's what it was.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
No, it was far lower
AL-05 was only R+6.  It swung hard right.  We were lucky Griffith pulled that race out.

[ Parent ]
Still need Arapahoe and Adams?
I'm going to place a call right now...see what they say.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

Colorado County Results
Arapahoe wants $150 for precinct-level data, but they have it. Oh...Adams is done for us--http://www.co.adams.co.us/index.cfm?d=standard&b=1&c=9&s=243&p=1034.  Oh...nevermind, that's congressional districts not presidential vote.  Just e-mailed them for the presidential vote totals.  Sit tight.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
Just got a call from Adams
It's $5 and I'm just tempted to foot the bill.  Thoughts?

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]

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