Google Ads

Site Stats

Crowdsourcing Pres-by-CD: Fifth Wave of Results

by: Crisitunity

Wed Feb 18, 2009 at 6:19 PM EST

The presidential-results-by-congressional-district crowdsourcing project at Swing State Project just keeps rolling along, and we're really getting close to total completion. We're adding 31 more districts today, having scored precinct-level data from some of the largest counties still outstanding (most notably, Queens County, NY, and Wayne County, MI). That leaves only 18 districts with problem counties left to go! (Nassau and Erie Counties, we're lookin' at you...)

As always, big thanks to all SSP readers who've contributed to this project, with extra thanks for this batch to Democratic Luntz and jeffmd, who rocks an Excel pivot table like nobody's business. If you want to see a handy list of all districts in one place, look here. If you want a fuller picture, waves one, two, three, and four are here. And if you want an absolutely crushing level of detail, just click on our master database and then on a particular state to see each district in all its precinct-level glory.

DistrictObama # McCain #Other #2008 %2004 %2000 %

So what are the highlights and lowlights for this installment? As we've seen earlier, California just went from dark blue to even bluer, and that seeped all the way down to some of its reliably red districts (CA-24 in Ventura County went narrowly for Obama... which hopefully will convince Elton Gallegly of the many botched retirement attempts to actually get off the pot this time... and we even came close in CA-19, which stitches together the Sierras and the whiter parts of the Central Valley). A lot of that movement may have to do with California's huge Latino population, fed up with the GOP's increasing reliance on immigrant-bashing; parallel movement is seen in Texas, where two mostly-Latino districts (TX-15 and TX-27) also show wide swings in the Democratic direction.

Also, as we've seen in other districts, Indiana had some of the biggest Democratic swings in the nation, simply by virtue of the Democrats showing up and competing there for once. Check out IN-06. Remember, this is the district represented by Mike Pence, arch-wingnut who just got promoted from leading the RSC to the #3 position in the whole GOP caucus... and now he's in a district that McCain won by just 6 points.

On the bad side of the ledger, we're seeing continued declines in some of the blue-collar white-ethnic districts in the NYC area. These districts suffered some of the biggest declines in that nation from Gore to Kerry, and I thought that might be a temporary 9/11 effect since those districts were some of the ones hardest hit. However, we've continued to lose ground in NY-09 (the old-school parts of Brookyln and Queens), and are stagnant in NJ-04 (Ocean and Monmouth Counties, where people from NY-09 go to retire). Not that it matters too much; these districts are outweighed by the overall blue trends in these already-blue states. And in NY-09 they still managed to kick out state senator Serphin Maltese to finally flip control of the New York senate; Obama's performance may have to do more with 2008-specific racism/latent PUMAism than an overall trend.

Also troubling is what's going on in eastern Ohio, where we lost ground in OH-06 and OH-17. It's not hard to explain -- OH-06 is considered the Appalachian part of Ohio, while OH-17 is centered on Youngstown, a place similar to Pittsburgh's collar counties where the once-strong union base is dying off or drifting away as the manufacturing sector evaporates. This is more worrisome since Ohio is a swing state where every vote counts, but as this part of the state is hollowing out while the Columbus and Cincinnati areas are starting to move into our column, it's not a killer.

Finally, I'm making good on my promise of some updates, based on further refining of early-vote or split-precinct data, or finding more data from small counties where we'd previously made a "close enough" judgment. As you'll see, the numbers haven't moved that much, with a few exceptions (perhaps most significantly in IL-18, which we originally thought Obama had won by a few thousand votes but turns out he lost by a few hundred; see also improvements in FL-06 and FL-07, SC-01 and SC-06). This will only be of interest to people who are real sticklers for accuracy or who are keeping their own spreadsheets on this subject. (Of course, since we're talking about Swing State Project here, that probably describes most of our readership!) The updates tables is over the flip...

Crisitunity :: Crowdsourcing Pres-by-CD: Fifth Wave of Results
DistrictObama # McCain #Other #Updated %What
we'd said
Tags: , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

This is my district. PUMA was a huge issue in this district, but I don't think Hillary Clinton would have broken 60% either. Remember that this was a Republican district on the presidential level before 1992. I believe from 1964-1988 it voted after the Clinton/Gore honeymoon, we reverted back to where we were. Look at the turnout though, it was REALLY love. 88,000 Republican votes is roughly what Bush got in 2000. Democratic voters just didn't vote for President. I saw this to be true at the Joe Addabbo victory party...many there didn't vote for President or voted for McCain.

Addabbo's victory was big, but in the district, Obama did better than Kerry in Queens, worse than him in Brooklyn, so the Queens-side is not where the problem is, it's Brooklyn. The Brooklyn side of the district has more in common with NY-13 than the rest of the city.

Anyway Republicans will probably win Addabbo's NYC council seat, but that's more because of shenanigans than a trend. A Democratic candidate got the frontrunning Democratic candidate knocked off the ballot on a technicality. We also did with another city council seat in Queens-NY-09 in November that had been long held by Republicans.

I think 55%-45% is roughly where NY-09 is and it's going to take a New Yorker or a Lieberman to win more votes here. This is a "bomb Iran" Democratic district.

BTW, I don't think this district has voted Democrat for mayor since 1985.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

That's not quite correct
Before Weiner, this was Chuck Schumer's seat and a very liberal district.  Clinton carried with over 60% in both 1992 and 1996 and even Dukakis, Mondale and Carter in 1980 won it.  The Republicans trend in NY-09 is very new.  

[ Parent ]
it's boundaries were VERY different
Schumer's boundaries until 1992 were exclusively in Brooklyn and included minority neighborhoods and liberal enclaves like Park Slope.

If drawn as it is now, it would've been a Republican district. The Queens portion of the district includes most of Geraldine Ferraro's old district, which was a Republican district. Mondale even lost it when she was on the ticket AND the Republicans almost picked up the seat in 1984. Tom Manton beat Serphin Maltese that year 53%-47%.

Also, the Queens portion of the district includes much of Joe Addabbo's old district, which Reagan definitely won in 1980.

The Republican trend in NY-09 is because it was drawn to be a white majority district and white voters in the outer boroughs are quite conservative.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Ferraro's old district
Is now pretty much Crowley's district.  

[ Parent ]
Not all of it
Forest Hills, Richmond Hill, Glendale, Middle Village, South Flushing and Kew Gardens are all in Weiner's district, this was really the heart of her district and were in the 1980's the conservative part of the district. I remember all the Bush/Quayle yardsigns in windows and lawns when I was a young boy all over these areas.

Crowley has the Flushing portion, Weiner has most of the southern portion where she came from and where her opponents (like Al DelliBovi) came from.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
I know Crowley's Bronx/Queens based district is about as Dem as one can get. Didnt it go Obama by like 60%? Out of curiousity but where are most of the white areas in The Bronx? In Crowley's, Eliot Engel's? And I wonder how they vote. i thought i remember reading about a socialist U.S. representative based out of The Bronx in the early 20th century but maybe Im wrong about that and its somewhere else. An Italian Dem whose name I forget.

[ Parent ]
Vito Marcantonio
He was from what is now Jose Serrano's district and it also included Harlem (where my mother grew up). My grandfather worked for him for a while after WWII.

He was actually a Republican when first elected in 1934 then sat as an independent (American Labor Party) but caucused with Democrats. He was a staunch civil right supporter and really was key in keeping the diverse parts of Harlem and The Bronx from breaking out into race riots. His district was Italian-American, Puerto Rican and African-American. I think Chuck Rangel worked for him early on.

As for Crowley's district, Obama got 80% in that district, which is surprising considering the Bronx part of his district used to be the home base of Guy Vellela and is has similar demographics at NY-09, but he got almost 90% there anyway.

I can't really make sense of it except to wonder if off campus Fordham University students or doctors/nurses from Jacobi had anything to do with it. A lot of them live in this area and were very pro-Obama. He was strong here even during the primaries.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Quite interesting, thanks!
Especially the part about your grandfather working for Marcantonio after WWII.

I know The Bronx doesnt have that many whites anymore (like around 400k) so it wouldnt be a surprise, to me, if theyre not a voting force in any one district. Though maybe they are. I know Crowley's district is like 25% white but the percentage of white voters may be much more. Not sure how many of them are in Engel's, too. As for their voting patterns im guessing theyre just much more labor/bread & buttered oriented than the ethnic white areas of Brooklyn & Queens.

[ Parent ]
White areas in the Bronx
Maybe theyre more like the white areas of South Boston and South Philly than the working class white areas in Queens and Brooklyn and Staten Island. In that theyre probably much more labor and fiscally oriented. Or maybe Im just wrong, who knows.  

[ Parent ]
Rather should say
Much more pro-labor and economically liberal overall.

[ Parent ]
Are you referring to Vito Marcantonio?  If so, his district was centered in East Harlem, though it might have gone into adjacent areas (roughly Charlie Rangel's district?).  Fellow American Laborite Leo Isaacson represented a good chunk of the Bronx.  Interestingly, Vito's first term was as a Republican...apparently a VERY left-wing one.  Socialist Party candidate Meyer London occupied the Lower East Side from 1914-1918.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
Except, apparently, for the Jews who control
the Democratic primary. It's a very interesting demographic situation.  

[ Parent ]
Weiner was an interesting win
He won despite being from Queens while most of the district was in Brooklyn. The Republicans made a smart move by nominating Brooklynite Noach Dear, who had been a Democrat, but they lost...that was pre-9/11. They might have won if they did that post 9/11.

Now the district is mostly in Queens, where Weiner lives. The next representative will probably be a Jew from Queens (watch for Melinda Katz, who lost the primary to Weiner, or Rory Lancman) unless State Senator Joe Addabbo jumps into the race...then it's his.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
I actually started a blog with my friend
covering some of the politics in the district (as well as across the state/nation too).

I would like to post a link, but I don't want to seem like I'm pimping my own personal blog.

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Go for it
Most people are far more shameless. :)

[ Parent ]
ok it's there
check it out, there's some good stuff at the very divisive and controversial special election to fill Joe Addabbo's city council seat.

And you thought Roland Burris was a sleazy Democrat!  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Go ahead and pimp your politics blog
in your signature or something.  Or here.

Well, I'm not an admin, so I don't have the final word, but I sure don't mind personally.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Katz is well to Weiner's left, yes?  Will that cause her a problem?

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
Yes she is
and I don't think it will cause her that much of a problem unless Republicans make a strong attempt at the seat.

As long as Katz hits the right notes, she would be fine, you'll see her very pro-Israel and probably not as vocal on progressive national security issues as other Democrats, but she'll hit the right notes on economic issues, social issues and be fine.

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
MI-11: McCotter, meet rock. Time to sink.

Looks like about 18 CDs left. I'm looking forward to MO-9, NY-26, NY-3, IN-2, and CO-6.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

You'll get adjustments to CD 4 and CD 1 soon
I've sent out the check to Adams County, CO, and am praying to the postal gods that this doesn't take days.  I sent the money last Friday.  If I weren't in a wheelchair, I could have walked faster to Westminster than my mail.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
By the way, Arapahoe Co. (a chunk of C0-06) wants $150.  DavidNYC said I didn't need to pony up that sort of cash as I'm a poor full-time PhD student.  Are we on that?

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
Turns out that Arapohoe is only $50
And don't worry -- it's been taken care of. Thanks again!

[ Parent ]
Looks to me like Obama matched Kerry and Gore's performance. If I recall the county results correctly, he won Mahoning County 62-36 and Trumbull County 59-39. If that's lower than what Kerry and Gore got, there's a very simple reason: he's black. Y-town is not the most enlightened area when it comes to racial politics. I actually thought McCain would do better than he did.

I wouldn't worry about this being a longterm trend. The Mahoning Valley GOP is nonexistent. However, the Dems desperately need a good housecleaning.

Weiner's district
Ive only gotten to the NY numbers so far on this list and pretty good for Obama, as expected. But Im a little surprised at NY-9 (Anthony Weiner's district). It went for Gore by 37 and Kerry by 12 but it only went for Obama by around 11 or 12. Despite Obama winning NY state, as a whole, by roughly 27% as compared to Kerry's roughly 18%. And Gore won around the same as Obama in NY state. I know this is just one district and shouldnt be concentrating on this but its hard not to when its so different from everything else. And its very blue results in 2000.

One reason
is that it's a district where it doesn't play well for a Democrat to say that he believes there is a personal right to bear arms. Gore sure didn't.

[ Parent ]
Yes it does. I live here, people aren't big on gun control here. I grew up in this district with a gun in my house, most of my friends did too.

Racism and foreign policy are much bigger issues here than gun control. This is a district where it doesn't play well for a Democrat to say we shouldn't blow Iran sky high or not torture people.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
The polls say otherwise
But I accept that there might be a highly specific district difference.

[ Parent ]
if you wander across the border into Brooklyn or the other way into Jamaica, then yeah, you'd see a difference in opinion.

Long Island is more pro-gun control than my neighborhood, but to be quite honest, the desire for guns is actually kinda new and has more to do with "Arabs" moving into the neighborhoods ("Arabs" of course meaning West Indian immigrants).

There is a lot of ignorant, bigotry and anti-immigrant bias here too.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
So far, that's not
the kind of representative it elects. Schumer and Weiner are both explicitly pro gun control.  

[ Parent ]
but it's not a top issue here like it is in some rural communities, and no Republican really takes on these issues in the community. It's sorta surprising to see Weiner be as liberal as he is, but some of the Democrats on the local level are VERY conservative.

This is the district of Dov Hikund and Anthony Semenerio.

If a Republican really wanted to make a play for the seat, s/he probably could, but there really is nobody out there who can do it right now.

But this is why I think the 2010 Senate primary will be moot if the issue is gun control. Gillibrand will do fine here, even if she loses around us.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
It's slightly more Republican
than the state as a whole, but that's not saying very much. I'm worried about whether Paterson can win here. His popularity has nosedived.  

[ Parent ]
Cuomo will likely beat him in the primary
And easily win the general election.  

[ Parent ]
that could be one divisive primary. . .

[ Parent ]
Unless Cuomo beats him big
I suspect they'll be a racial aspect because it's Cuomo...but there are even African-Americans near by who despise Paterson.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Exactly one poll
Showed Cuomo leading Paterson in a primary, and we're 19 months from the election. For Cuomo to get in, he'd need a very serious argument that Paterson is so flawed, Democrats have to dump him. That's a hard argument to make.

[ Parent ]
Au contraire
I'm starting to think that Paterson is toast (SUSA)

[ Parent ]
No Paterson won't win here
no way, he was never popular here...though on the Queens end of the district Giuliani is not popular here at all (because of John Gotti), but Rudy is VERY popular in the Brooklyn end.

Rudy could even beat Cuomo here.

Before Spitzer, Pataki carried this district three times and Cuomo won in 1990 with a plurality.

and like I said, the 9th district in it's current form hasn't voted Democrat for mayor since Koch.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Jerrold Nadler's
I wonder how the Brooklyn part of Nadler's district voted. CQ Politics says it actually went for Bush in 04.  

[ Parent ]
McCain 55%, Obama 45%
weird huh?

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
I know Bush got 53%, in the Brooklyn part, in 04. Not sure of Kerry's percentage and the margin of victory, though.

[ Parent ]
Many racist Jews
live in this district and the "Obama is a Muslim" meme gained a lot of ground here. Unlike NY-09, this is one of those districts Clinton probably would've done much much better in as the nominee. A Democratic State Assemblyman in the district actually endorsed McCain.

Obama did better than Kerry boroughwide, but he did worse in the Jewish areas. Extreme PUMA and racial situations played out there. Nadler wins here because he's Jewish.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Take a look at NY-14
78%-21% for Obama.  Its Maloney's district and that is who Paterson should have picked for the Senate seat.  We would have held that seat easily.  

Maloney's district
And to think...Republicans use to be able to compete there in congressional elections! Republican Bill Green represented much of it, for over 10 years, before being knocked off by Maloney in 92 (under slightly but more Dem lines). The GOP also use to be competitive, in the Upper East Side, in local elections, too. My how those days have passed..

[ Parent ]
Bill Green, that brings back some memories!!!
He won Ed Koch's old House seat in a special election back in 1978 and held it until 1992.  This guy was probably one of the most liberal Republicans ever elected to Congress.  He was to the left of Lincoln Chafee.  I believe that Koch was actually the only other Democrat to hold this seat other than Maloney.  

[ Parent ]
Koch was more conservative than Green

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
As a mayor yes
not as a Congressman.  Koch regularly had 100 ADA ratings in Congress.

[ Parent ]
And if Paterson had picked Maloney
I would have been the hands-down favorite to fill the open House seat, since the 14th is my district. :)

And yeah, the East Side used to elect lots of Republicans. Roy Goodman was the state senator for many years despite several close calls. After one of the closest ever in the early part of this decade, he finally bailed and Liz Kruger (who had nearly toppled him) won the special election.

The person she beat in the special was the assemblyman for my area, John Ravitz - also, of course, a Republican. And for a number of years in the 1990s, our city councilman was Andrew Eristoff, a Republican who succeeded Maloney. Thankfully, that era of Republican dominance on the Upper East Side has come to a close.

[ Parent ]
I had narrowed the choice down to Maloney
She was the right pick IMO.

[ Parent ]
Freakin' obvious
You got it Sue.

[ Parent ]
Nice to see all the California districts finished.
And it is even nicer to see CA-11 and CA-24 turned blue!

My blog
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

Thank you for all your hard work
In helping us to do California!

[ Parent ]
You're very welcome! ;-)

My blog
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

[ Parent ]
We took a beating in NJ-04
I'm from central NJ. I lived in NJ-04 briefly. Seriously, how do the Dems win it back?

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

Chris Smith's
Whats NJ-4 (Smith) like ideologically? Is it like Smith (culturally conservative but economically populist) or something else? A good friend of mine lives a little north of there, in East Brunswick, in Rush Holt's district. From what I gather Holt's district is fiscally conservative/socially liberal. I was there a few years ago. I was amazed that much of central and northern Jersey is suburbia for miles on end. Not my cup of tea but at least theres alot to do and lots of people to meet. Thats always a bonus. And not far from NYC, the beach and the mountains.

[ Parent ]
NJ-04 has a new SVI of R+5.8
So this would really be an uphill battle even if Smith retires.

[ Parent ]
NJ-2 still looks good.  Obama got above his national total of 53% in NJ-2 (54%).  Now to get somebody serious to run against LoBiondo.

Still some blanks but there are already 15 districta at 53% or better, a number equivalent to the 15 Kerry districts entering 2008.

Those 53% or better districts are:

DE   Castle (62%)  Finally going for this one.
IA-4 Latham (53%)  Still D+0 or thereabouts
IL-6 Roskam (56%)
IL-10 Kirk  (61%)
IL-13 Biggert (54%)  She's in her 70s, too
IL-16 Manzullo (53%)
LA-2 Cao (74%)      Dead meat
MI-6 Upton (54%)    Go for him
MI-8 Rogers (53%)
MI-11 McCotter (54%)
NJ-2 Lo Biondo (54%)
OH-12 Tiberi (53%)
PA-6 Gerlach (58%)  Shpuld have been gone before
PA-15 Dent  (56%)
VA-10 Wolf (53%)  Getting older, too
WA-8  Reichert (57%)

[ Parent ]

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms.


Make a New Account



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

SSP Resources


Powered by: SoapBlox