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Crowdsourcing Pres-by-CD: Third Wave of Results

by: Crisitunity

Wed Jan 14, 2009 at 8:24 PM EST


The elves were busy while I was taking Christmas off, and now that I've picked the crowdsourcing project back up, we've made another big jump, taking us to the point of having presidential election results for 3/4s of all congressional districts.

Results from the first wave are here, and results from the second wave are here. If you want to see all results in one place, they're permalinked here. Also, please check out our master database; although we've made a lot of headway, there's still plenty to do if you have access to precinct-level data (however, the remaining states are the ones that tend to be most coy about releasing precinct-level data, so those remaining districts may never see daylight until Polidata somehow solves those enigmas).

DistrictObama # McCain #Other #2008 %2004 %2000 %
CA-01199,83596,5308,26465.6/31.760/3852/39
CA-02125,291161,6367,04142.6/55.037/6233/61
CA-03165,617164,0256,44049.3/48.841/5841/55
CA-04167,604206,3858,36843.8/54.037/6136/59
CA-05165,77667,6254,70969.6/28.461/3860/35
CA-06253,08773,3456,80276.0/22.070/2862/30
CA-07179,03766,2725,45071.4/26.467/3266/31
CA-08266,21038,6657,51985.2/12.485/1477/15
CA-09260,66229,1865,91988.1/9.986/1379/13
CA-10204,138104,6246,97264.7/33.159/4055/41
CA-12214,85069,0295,21374.3/23.972/2767/29
CA-13175,83856,2994,27074.4/23.871/2867/30
CA-17171,18061,1634,93272.1/25.866/3360/33
CA-22110,910172,7925,87938.3/59.731/6833/64
CA-25134,222131,2016,01049.5/48.340/5942/56
CA-26149,249137,3295,88551.0/47.044/5544/53
CA-27157,10075,2865,21966.1/31.759/3960/36
CA-28147,95842,8153,49276.2/22.071/2873/24
CA-29159,94771,8604,84067.6/30.461/3758/38
CA-30242,02295,8695,71070.4/27.966/3368/28
CA-31113,94125,4413,28079.9/18.377/2277/19
CA-32119,72652,3563,55768.2/29.862/3767/31
CA-33205,47027,6723,53986.8/11.783/1683/14
CA-34106,69533,0563,02374.7/23.269/3072/26
CA-35165,76127,7892,92384.4/14.179/2082/17
CA-36176,92492,1055,75464.4/33.559/4057/39
CA-37157,21936,9403,38879.6/18.774/2576/22
CA-38130,09248,5993,84671.3/26.665/3470/28
CA-39128,57963,6804,11765.5/32.459/4062/36
CA-40114,025125,0665,45646.6/51.139/6041/56
CA-41119,255147,9825,89043.7/54.237/6241/56
CA-42128,474152,2565,52944.9/53.237/6239/59
CA-43112,02049,5943,21668.0/30.158/4164/34
CA-44133,535131,0035,16949.5/48.640/5944/53
CA-45142,305129,6644,25151.5/46.943/5647/51
CA-46145,393150,9376,92147.9/49.842/5742/55
CA-4777,14448,4612,67260.1/37.849/5056/42
CA-48163,063160,5847,09149.3/48.640/5840/58
CA-49117,283137,7394,80545.1/53.036/6339/59
CA-50172,962158,8455,61651.3/47.144/5543/54
CA-51135,96076,4383,02163.1/35.553/4657/41
CA-52135,848161,3324,82745.0/53.438/6140/57
CA-53177,86377,9305,10168.2/29.961/3858/38
GA-0196,818167,1222,14936.4/62.834/6638/62
GA-02130,109111,5591,32253.6/45.950/5052/48
GA-03129,895235,2633,17835.3/63.929/7032/68
GA-04208,87454,8681,97478.6/20.771/2870/30
GA-05249,92763,0532,73479.1/20.074/2673/27
GA-06133,716227,7014,30136.6/62.329/7032/68
GA-07140,009212,7213,71039.3/59.730/7031/69
GA-08123,877162,3761,97843.0/56.339/6142/58
GA-0970,366225,9293,61123.5/75.323/7729/71
GA-10113,915183,4412,77338.0/61.135/6537/63
GA-11103,112204,2753,98733.1/65.629/7135/66
GA-12143,624120,1501,73354.1/45.349/5052/48
GA-13200,56780,3272,18070.9/28.460/4057/43
IN-01184,871111,8952,58261.8/37.455/4456/42
IN-04141,946184,3893,50943.0/55.930/6932/66
IN-05143,447210,1033,17240.2/58.928/7130/69
IN-07191,38176,5302,05670.9/28.458/4256/43
IN-09149,587151,5433,78349.1/49.740/5942/56
KS-0179,638184,5014,81329.6/68.626/7229/67
KS-02133,759170,2796,00343.1/54.939/5941/54
KS-03186,196177,0195,14850.6/48.144/5542/53
KS-04113,418166,7055,44039.7/58.434/6437/59
NY-18184,182112,2142,29461.7/37.658/4258/39
NY-19160,645153,4243,10050.7/48.445/5447/49
OH-01164,824133,5763,14754.7/44.349/5146/51
OH-02126,796190,1094,29739.5/59.236/6434/63
OH-03155,610167,8974,83047.4/51.146/5445/52
OH-04112,543176,9735,88238.1/59.934/6535/62
OH-05136,666159,4335,98145.2/52.839/6137/59
OH-07142,154171,5685,19444.6/53.843/5742/56
OH-08118,915189,5785,49937.9/60.435/6436/61
OH-09194,682113,0954,92562.3/36.258/4255/41
OH-10174,575115,0055,48959.2/39.058/4153/42
OH-11245,14941,6062,46384.8/14.481/1879/18
OH-12213,177183,2335,17253.1/45.649/5146/52
OH-15167,441139,4255,48653.6/44.650/5044/52
OH-18112,545128,7356,12245.5/52.043/5741/55
OR-02155,301192,62710,63243.3/53.738/6135/60
OR-04200,841161,64511,57253.7/43.249/4944/49
PA-01246,00632,1741,31088.0/11.584/1584/15
PA-02270,69526,5211,26490.7/8.987/1287/12
PA-08186,372157,5443,81453.6/45.351/4851/46
PA-11164,451121,5593,22956.9/42.053/4754/43
PA-12131,544132,4973,89249.1/49.551/4955/44
PA-14209,77186,9272,88670.0/29.069/3070/28
PA-15162,471122,1633,80456.3/42.450/5049/48
PA-16150,341161,8442,71947.7/51.438/6136/62
PA-17144,897152,4063,73748.1/50.642/5841/56
PA-18149,824186,2973,21544.2/54.946/5447/52
TN-0175,052181,9123,82928.8/69.831/6838/61
TN-02104,287195,5404,60034.3/64.235/6439/59
TN-03103,817174,2483,60036.9/61.938/6141/57
TN-0492,924173,8414,91734.2/64.041/5849/50
TN-05166,293128,6153,63655.7/43.152/4857/42
TN-06112,064189,7294,72136.6/61.940/6049/49
TN-07123,063230,7793,39734.4/64.633/6640/59
TN-08110,390144,9573,25542.7/56.147/5351/48
TN-09196,82456,1301,43277.4/22.170/3063/36
TX-02105,736159,1411,80539.7/59.737/6337/63
TX-03124,027171,1193,28341.6/57.333/6730/70
TX-0490,191206,6212,99230.1/68.930/7034/66
TX-0590,135158,3562,12836.0/63.233/6734/66
TX-06112,025167,7782,24339.7/59.534/6634/66
TX-07121,472173,1622,67340.9/58.236/6431/69
TX-0873,428213,4502,46425.4/73.828/7231/69
TX-09137,61940,24085077.0/22.570/3069/31
TX-10149,112183,9083,98744.3/54.638/6234/67
TX-1156,939182,0742,33223.6/75.422/7825/75
TX-1299,083171,4082,53936.3/62.833/6736/64
TX-1352,691175,1742,08722.9/76.222/7825/75
TX-1488,532177,3702,23033.0/66.233/6736/64
TX-16118,17860,2791,77365.6/33.557/4459/41
TX-1778,756166,6492,35131.8/67.330/7032/68
TX-18150,97343,2921,10477.3/22.272/2872/28
TX-1964,541168,7891,91227.4/71.823/7725/75
TX-20115,47064,7242,16363.3/35.555/4558/42
TX-21149,261214,5694,29940.6/58.334/6631/69
TX-22129,414183,1722,45441.1/58.136/6433/67
TX-23124,568117,7042,34850.9/48.143/5747/54
TX-24124,128153,7582,68844.2/54.835/6532/68
TX-25176,016118,1834,80558.9/39.554/4647/53
TX-26135,285185,4682,74641.8/57.335/6538/62
TX-28103,03780,1921,25155.9/43.546/5450/50
TX-2966,80840,88481561.6/37.756/4457/43
TX-30170,82637,4651,30681.5/17.975/2574/26
TX-3296,203110,3972,50946.0/52.840/6036/64

A few words about some of the states. Many of you have already seen the California numbers, which californianintexas published in her excellent diary; for those of you who haven't, here they are on the front page again. There are unfortunately some California districts missing; a number of large counties (Santa Clara, San Joaquin, Ventura, and Fresno especially) haven't provided precinct-by-precinct data, so districts incorporating parts of those counties can't be completed.

The missing precinct-level data problem explains missing districts in certain other states, too. (In some cases, there was missing data for smaller counties, but I made a judgment call that the counties in question were small enough that they wouldn't affect the overall percentage much, so they're included.) In Indiana, we're still missing data for Allen and Elkhart Counties, so that rules out IN-02, IN-03, and IN-06. (I already did the 8th in the first wave.) The partial totals for the left-out districts are still available in the Indiana database (the same is true for OH, PA, and TX as well), if you click the link. They may well be very close to the actual percentages, but there's just no way of knowing.

In Ohio, large counties we're missing include Mahoning, Trumbull, and Medina, so we're short OH-06, OH-13, OH-14, OH-16, and OH-17.  Pennsylvania is missing Montgomery, Butler, and Cumberland Counties among others, so there we're also missing the PA-03, PA-04, PA-05, PA-06, PA-07, PA-09, PA-10, PA-13, and PA-19. (MontCo also occupies a tiny bit of PA-02, PA-08, and PA-15, but it's such a small percentage of those districts I decided to let it slide.)

In Texas, Cameron County is missing, so that leaves out TX-15 and TX-27. (I also did the 1st and 31st in the first wave.) Finally, there's the matter of New York, where only a few counties bother to report by precinct. Luckily, two of them are Westchester and Rockland, so at least we can do NY-18 and NY-19 there.

There was also one missing county in Oregon, which kept me from including OR-02 and OR-04 in the first wave. I found enough information about Josephine County to decide how to allocate its votes (66.8% of the county's voters voted for a candidate in the OR-02 congressional race, while 33.1% voted in OR-04, so I just applied those percentages to the presidential race).

In Georgia, as with many of the other southern states, early votes aren't broken down, so what jeffmd did, as before, was to use both 'hard' and 'soft' totals, where soft totals included early votes allocated proportionately. I'm including the soft totals (otherwise, we wouldn't have even won GA-02 and GA-12, where victory clearly depended heavily on black turnout).

So what are some of the highlights in this data set? Check out some of the traditionally Republican districts in California (where in many, not coincidentally, we came very close to surprising long-term incumbents) like CA-03, CA-26, CA-44, and even GOP strongholds like CA-25 and CA-48: all won by Obama.

Some of the biggest gains were in Indiana, especially in the Indianapolis area, where both the city itself (IN-07) and its right-wing suburbs (IN-05) zoomed to the left. Amazing what you can accomplish when you actually try to contest a formerly uncontested state.

One area where the GOP might take heart is western Pennsylvania, where there's apparently the one district in the nation that flipped from going for Kerry to going narrowly for McCain: John Murtha's PA-12. Also, the Philly burbs didn't move as much as one might expect (the needle barely budged in PA-08 in Bucks County); where the biggest progress occurred in Pennsylvania was out in places like Lancaster and Harrisburg (see PA-16 and PA-17).

Texas is a very complicated tapestry: in many rural parts of the state, there was no real improvement from 2004, despite the loss of the favorite son effect. For example, expect TX-13 to replace UT-03 as the district with the worst PVI once they recalculate. And look at TX-08, where both growing right-wing exurbs and declining Dem fortunes in the Beaumont area were a double-whammy. Contrast that, though, with not just hugely improved percentages in the minority districts, but also a lot of progress in the suburban districts that we've discussed a lot recently where the minority growth is accelerating: TX-10, TX-22 (where the growth wasn't enough to save Nick Lampson, sadly), TX-32, and especially TX-24 in the area around DFW airport.

And, as always, if more results trickle into the master database, I'll be sure and post them to the front page. So keep on number-crunching!

Crisitunity :: Crowdsourcing Pres-by-CD: Third Wave of Results
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I didnt realize how bad TN-04 has gotten
64%-34% McCain.  That one is going to be an absolutely nightmare if Davis runs for governor.  

Between the Al Gore
favorite son effect falling out of the PVI average, and the further decline in our fortunes in TN this year, my seat-of-the-pants calculation is that this district is going to drop from an R+3 PVI down to around an R+13. I don't know if we're going to see that sort of crash anywhere else, maybe in AR-01 and AR-04.

[ Parent ]
To be completely blunt
From what I know about that part of Tennessee, it wouldn't surprise me if Obama's race had a lot to do with the dropoff in TN-04.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
Interesting point
Unless Obama won PA-03--and I'm not sure he did--McCain appears to have won a majority of the Congressional districts in the state, even though he lost by 10 points. But the MOST interesting part is that it wasn't entirely according to the gerrymander. No contested Republican should ever win PA-12 (Murtha's district), and yet. . .

Ironically, Republicans drew PA-12 as a dumping ground
for Democrats in the Southeastern part of the state back in 2001.  Murtha's old district actually went 52%-45% for Bush in 2000, but Republicans made it 55%-44% Gore so they could create PA-18.  If the 2008 election had been held in the old PA-12, Murtha may have lost.  Same with PA-11 where they moved all of the Democratic strongholds of Northeast PA into that district.  If they had left those Democratic areas in PA-10, they probably would have beaten Kanjorski in 2010.  

[ Parent ]
The great Pennsylvania dummymander...
It never ceases to amaze me how poorly that map turned out for republicans who drew it.  It almost rivals the 1992 Georgia map as far as dummymanders go.

[ Parent ]
There is one way to tell whether a gerrymander works
You go to a race that was near even in the state and you see if the winning candidate carried a majority of the districts.  The worst one is Florida, where McCain lost by three but carried 10 of the 15 districts.  

[ Parent ]
Florida is far easier to gerrymander than PA
The minorities and Jews (the democratic base in the state) are heavily concentrated in a few urban centers making it easy to pack them into several D+15 or higher districts.  Thankfully since 2002 the growth of minorities, especially non-Cuban Hispanics, is very spread out.  It's going to be much harder for them to draw a map that is any worse for us than the current one.

[ Parent ]
Im pretty sure that the 3rd and 23rd districts are actually
unconstitutional.  It says that districts can be created with regards to political intrests, but not racial interests unless it makes geographic sense(GA-04, GA-05, IL-01, IL-02, and IL-07 and other inner city districts come to mind).  

I mean look at FL-03(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/81/FL03_109.gif) and FL-23(http://i530.photobucket.com/albums/dd341/BushMonkey2008/FL23_109.png).  Does these make any "geographic sense"?


[ Parent ]
There lies the problem
The black reps of those districts are in cahoots with republicans in order to keep their feifdoms intact.  

[ Parent ]
Yep
Its how what helped them take over the House in 1994.  Republicans actually purchased redistricting programs for African American legislators to help them draw districts for themselves.  They did it in 1992 and it probably cost Democrats 20 districts that they would have won with more black voters in their districts.  

[ Parent ]
Funny thing about FL-03
Corinne Brown is so disliked that even with her absurdely black and democratic district, she badly underperforms.  I believe in 2002 she won something like 57-43%.  There's no excuse for and Dem getting under 70% in that district, which meanders like a snake through nearly all the black majority neighborhoods in Gainesville, Daytona Beach and into Orlando.  If her district were say D+8 or D+10 a republican could actually win it from her.  

[ Parent ]
Or she would lose a primary
to a more competant Democrat.  Probably an Artur Davis type.    

[ Parent ]
And I should note
I don't oppose minority-majority districts.  Without them the house would look more like the senate in that there would be few blacks in office.  I just oppose districts like Florida has where blacks make up well over half the population.  That is completely unnecessary.  Very much past 50% black and you're just wasting votes and diluting minority voting power.  Meeks or Hastings crazy D+30 or higher districts could easily be knockec doen to D+15 or D+20 and still easily elect black congressmen.

[ Parent ]
Not only that, but if you knock those districts down to 50% black,
you get black representatives who also have to appeal to white voters to stay really secure, which means you get more black statewide (and higher) candidates down the road.


28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

[ Parent ]
Not really
You'd have to shave another ten points off to make that a real concern. 45-47% black is pretty much ideal. Interestingly, what works just about as well is 30% black and 10-20% latino. (Though that's typically of more interest in the west and southwest).

The Paradox of Representation is a little bit out of date, but covers these issues in great detail.  


[ Parent ]
Yup
You get the sense, comparing W PA to Ohio and NE PA, that the Biden choice was a very good one. The Scranton, Scranton, Scranton theme seems to have been really helpful.

BTW, the 12th is still very safe for any reasonably competent local Democrat. If Murtha were to retire next year, I am almost certian that he would be replaced by a Democrat, given the current map.  


[ Parent ]
He saves Kanjo's ass
Biden probably saved Kanjorski bigtime by being on the ticket.  Even still, how many of us seriously thought the guy would hang on after that aweful final SUSA poll came out showing him down by something like 6 or 8 points?  Hopefully he retires in 2010.

[ Parent ]
Pretty clearly that's right
Any other dem ought to be able to win this seat without trouble.  

[ Parent ]
RE: 12th District
No doubt that is true.  

If Jack Murtha were to retire next year, you would be looking at another Democrat in that seat.  I think you would be looking at a new Congressman John Wozniak.

His state senate seat would be easy to keep, so no loss there.

If that were to happen, there would be no question at all of the 12th disappearing.


[ Parent ]
What's he like?
Cookie-cutter moderate Dem that fits the 12th district perfectly?  Hopefully the next rep will at least be cleaner than Murtha.

[ Parent ]
He's
pretty conservative. But honestly, so are all of the Democrats out there.

He's a good fit for the district, I think.  


[ Parent ]
RE: That Montgomery County Report
All I saw in that 600 some page book was the primary results.  There were no general election results.

Do you have a second link, by any chance?

Given that your link indicates that he supports choice in the first trimester, he at least is less conservative on that issue than Jack Murtha is.

However, your description of much of the party out there is quite true.  Even some of the Democrats out getting support for Obama were rather conservative, outside of labor/social safety net type issues.


[ Parent ]
RE: Wozniak
He is an excellent fit for the district, he has a very clean image, and is well liked.

Yes, he is good at bringing money in for his district, as well.


[ Parent ]
Looks like Obama took 41-42 of 53 CA districts!
I looked up the background on the districts without results listed and estimate that Obama only lost 11-12 out of 53 California districts.  Thats friggin amazing.  We only hold 34 of the 53 CA congressional seats so there is plenty of room to grow there.

Indeed.
I too was amazed at how many normally Republican districts (CA-03, CA-11, CA-24 [possibly], CA-25, CA-26, CA-44, CA-45, CA-48, CA-50) all fell to Obama. This will hopefully motivate the grassroots and the CDP (with the wonderful legislative leaders Senator Darrell Steinberg and Assembly Speaker Karen Bass) in these districts to go for vulnerable Senate and Assembly districts (which I listed here).

I guesstimated CA-11, CA-18, and CA-24 to have gone to Obama, though we don't have data from at least one county in those districts. And others were easy to guess. Of course every district that is mostly or completely Santa Clara (14-16) will be Obama districts. Same with CA-11. Though the 11th is mostly San Joaquin County, that county did go to Obama and I can assume Obama won this district. And the districts with Fresno in them were also easy. CA-19 and CA-21 are obviously Republican. CA-18 did go for Bush in 2004 but barely, and since Obama crushed McCain among Hispanic voters, which there are plenty of in this district, I can safely assume Obama won CA-18. And Kerry won CA-20, so I can safely assume Obama did too. CA-24 is probably an Obama district also. Though McCain comfortably won the Santa Barbara part of the county, most of the district's population is in Ventura County, which Obama won by double digits. Looking at the map more closely, you can see that Obama won every district that has some coastline except CA-46 (though that one was close) and CA-49.

2008 - District Tally: Obama 42, McCain 11
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Just to compare how much we improved, here's 2004.

2004 - District Tally: Kerry 32, Bush 21
Image and video hosting by TinyPic

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
CA-11 I'm anxious to see
My gut tells me the district swung hard left for Obama and he won it by a solid high single-digits margin.  The more democratic is trends naturally the less democrats will need to shore it up for McNerney in 2012.  Not to mention if Obama won the district huge it might scare off to-tier challengers to McNerney in 2010.

[ Parent ]
I with Gallegly would retire already
His district probably moved well left in in 2008 and he wanted to retire back in 2006.  An open seat there would be a great opportunity.

[ Parent ]
I'm sure you're right
about Obama winning CA-24. Obama won Ventura County as a whole by 55 to 43, and while I think CA-23 poaches the most favorable parts of Ventura, I think there's still enough Obama vote left in the rest of the county to eke out a small win.

[ Parent ]
I agree.
I used that same rationale to determine that Obama won CA-24. I also used the fact that the neighboring CA-25, which is more Republican, went to Obama.

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Small request
I love seeing all that blue, too, but I ask that you kindly post somewhat smaller images in the future as the big guys sorta mess with the site's default layout on many monitors. Thank you!

[ Parent ]
Yikes @ PA-12
Murtha's district showed one of the bigger swings against us.  Going to be a big shift towards republicans in PVI in that district.  

TX-22
Looking at that result there probably was no excuse for Lampson losing the way he did.  He didn't even outperform Obama by much in his own district.

A lot of straight ticket R voters
in those suburban parts of Houston.  Look at TX-10, where Doherty ran almost exactly even with Obama because of the automatic Republican vote in the Harris portion of the district.  

[ Parent ]
Bingo!
Harris County of TX-22 is the Yacht Club area. Best any dem got in that area was around 43%. Maybe Sheriff Garcia did better that that. Regardless, this is straight ticket Republican land.

Fort Bend meanwhile . . .

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
Funny thing
A district like that in the northeast would be prime ground for Dem expansion.  

[ Parent ]
TX-22
Im in this district and the 'Yacht Club area' and youre exactly right that its straight ticket Republican land. Its fiscally and socially and religiously conservative...so its no surprise really. Even most in the 30-40 age range appear conservative. Its the kind of place where youd see a church on every corner. Many, many evangelicals here. I also live like 10 minutes from Ron Paul's district and I can definitely say that its not libertarian like he is. Its amazing that he hasnt been primaried by now. Its too bad that Lampson lost but he really couldnt have done much more (sure, he could have switched to being pro-life but thatd look so obviously political). He was actually much more liberal before he represented this district. I hope he runs for Governor. Id definitely support him. He said he wont rule out running for office again (last I checked anyway, which was like immediately after the election).

[ Parent ]
w00t, someone else from the area!
I was doing field work in the area for Matula last summer/fall. Local Dems (BAND) are doing a party on Obama's inauguration day at the Mediterranean buffet in front of Barnes and Noble by Baybrook Mall, feel free to swing by if you want.

BTW, Welcome to SSP.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
Thanks!
Thanks for the offer and the welcome. I dunno if Id be too welcome at the inauguration event, though. Truth is...I actually voted McCain. Not a Republican but an Independent but i did prefer McCain. With that said I think Obama could end up being a very good President. I can definitely see myself voting for him in 2012. Hopefully we get universal health care soon, amongst other things. Definitely alot about him that I like.

Im fiscally moderate and socially somewhat libertarian...so thats why I dont care to be a Republican. I despise the Religious Right wing but also the Club for Growth wing. Though Im not a Dem I definitely enjoy this site. Its one of my favorite politcal sites.  


[ Parent ]
A McCain supporter...
FOR universal healthcare?  Wow, that's a new one on me!

In all honesty, you are about where I was back when I first started following politics in college.  Independent-minded with a strong distaste for the GOP because of the religious right, but also in favor of government programs where needed and still having qualms about some of the democratic agenda.  After four years of the Bush/GOP Congress running the country into the ground I was a straight ticket Democratic voter.


[ Parent ]
When I was in college
I leaned Republican because I felt closer to the party on economics and especially on defense (9/11 had a lot to do with it!). Later on when I heard more and more about the religious right and the censoring of scientists, my distaste for the GOP grew and grew, and then I couldn't take it anymore and switched parties in 2002. I voted straight-ticket Dem then, as well as every election since.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Our generation was actually very pro-Bush
initially after 9/11.  It was the under-30s who were most pro-Iraq War after the invasion, and it wasn't until 2004 that the youth turned against the Repubs.  

For comparison, Gore won the under 30 vote in 2000 by just 48-46, while Kerry won them 55-44, and Obama 66-32.  I'm willing to bet that the Repubs probably won the under 30 vote in the 2002 midterms by a decent margin.


[ Parent ]
What moved me
I graduated college was no longer a sheltered rich boy with mommy's credit card.

I had to get a job for myself and OMG you know what? It's hard for those who aren't rich, powerful and connected.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens


[ Parent ]
Tell me about it!
And it's even worse for Aspies like myself. (Asperger's; high-functioning autism which makes interacting with people very difficult.)

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
TX-29
106,000 TOTAL votes cast?  Are there really THAT many non-citizens in that district?  

And:
What in the world happened with PA-18? It went 55-44 McCain- I was hoping that something miraculous would happen on Nov. 4th, and that Tim Murphy would be unseated. Then again, isn't a portion of his district heavily Republican, unlike Murtha's?  

Nothing going for us in that district
But I could easily see Tim Murphy being knocked off in a midterm a la Melissa Hart.  

[ Parent ]
As a PA-18 Resident
I can easily tell you that Murphy would never got beaten in 2008. First off, with more richer conservatives moving into the Westmoreland and Allegheny County part of the district it will much very hard for a Democrat to beat Murphy. It can be done since PA-18 mirrors PA-04 mostly, but it's difficult. Second the people that live in this district will never vote for a black man, let alone a liberal Democrat, not in the rich suburbs. Third the guy running againist Murphy was a complete joke who was too liberal for this district with no money. Maybe he would be a great fit for the blogs of Daily Kos and Open left, but not in this district.

[ Parent ]
The curious thing
is that the rich suburbs did vote for the black guy in the eastern part of the state. And considering that the 18th is mostly white, it did very well compared to what you'd find if you drove south for about four hours.  

[ Parent ]
You can't compare the two
The politics of Eastern PA and Western PA are much different. Western PA tends to be more culturaly backwards, socially conservative and very pro-union (which isn't a bad thing). They would have no problem electing moderate Dems like John Murtha and Jason Altmire, but on the national level they tend to favor Republicans for the most part. This most likely has to do with the rich conservatives, Catholics and yes racists and bigots living in the area.

Eastern PA on the other hand is trending our way very fast. As you have seen the suburbs of Philadelphia (who tend to be moderates in their politics) have been trending Dem. As you seen Obama won in the Suburbs and in 2006 you saw the 'burbs elect Democrats Patrick Murphy and Joe Sestak to Congress. But on the local level, the GOP is still sucessful in electing moderate GOPers to Harrisburg and other local positions.


[ Parent ]
Indeed
The two districts to compare are the 6th and the 18th.  

[ Parent ]
RE: western PA
I note that you stated that you live in the western part of the state, and I most certainly agree that rich conservatives have a hand in GOP success there, and there probably are racists and bigots out there.

I do question one thing: the Catholic part.  I don't question that there are many out there, because there are.  

However, the Philly suburbs have many Catholics.  In Delaware County, they are the majority, where Obama actually did best amongst the suburban counties in the southeast.  

Lackawanna County is also heavily Catholic, yet Obama was the first since LBJ to get 60% of the county.

If you look at Northumberland County, Obama did well in the very eastern part of the county, but got killed in the rest.  The part he did well in is heavily Catholic.  They are basically non-existent in the rest, where Obama lost very heavily.

Obama got a outright majority of Elk County, the first Democrat to do so since Carter in 1976.  Erie County has a high percentage, as well.

As for Mercer County, Obama was reduced to doing extremely well in that southwestern corner of the county.  He won a couple of town out of that area, but lost heavily elsewhere.  Sharon and a couple of the towns have large minority populations, but Hermitage is mostly eastern European Catholic, and Obama racked up the numbers there.

As I noted elsewhere, Obama still took all those towns in Cambria County, such as Barnesboro, Patton, Carrolltown, Hastings, etc.  Anyone familiar with such parts would know right away which faith dominates such parts.

That same religious affiliation of voters did not seem to keep Obama from doing well in many other parts.


[ Parent ]
You could be right regarding Catholics
It could be mostly that Obama did poorly around here was because of the rich conservatives, socially and culturally Democrats (DINO'S) and racists. But in my opinion one of the reasons Obama did well in NE PA was because of Joe Biden. I think picking up shore up his support to the blue collar voters and Catholics who were uneasy towards him or unsure if he was the right guy for the job.

[ Parent ]
Downballot realignment
It's been my observation that realignment downballot takes longer than upper ballot realignment.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Didn't Lynn Swann
win this district in the Governor's race in 2006?


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Georgia is also interesting
Obama made great progress in the super Republican suburban Atlanta districts(GA-03, GA-06, and GA-07) but not anywhere near enough to put them into play.  Its too bad we didnt get to keep that pre-2005 Congressional map because it probably would have given us a 7-6 lead in the delegation.  

The only other district that could have been
available under the old map was the 11th. If somebody has some time. . .

[ Parent ]
Possible
I believe Gingrey's old seat was something like R+4 and had a decent black base of voters.  It's definately possible that with a strong challenger and sky high black turnout that Gingrey could have been toppled in the old district.

[ Parent ]
I wonder whether Obama won the old 3rd
My guess is that it was close.

[ Parent ]
I'll bet he did
Marshall's old seat was something like R+4 with a good deal more blacks.  He probably won the old district boundaries by a slim margin.

[ Parent ]
I think the 2012 new seat will be Atlanta suburbs
If those currently deep red Atlanta suburbs keep moving in our favor we could see one of more of them flip in the next decade.  If republicans in Georgia get greedy  it could really hurt them long-term.

[ Parent ]
See also the 13th
which seems to be the biggest progress of all in Georgia. The 13th is the exurbs along the southern and western tiers of the Atlanta metro area, where there's huge African-American growth. This district was barely AA-majority when it was formed, but now it's pretty solidly black.

Gwinnett County (which overlaps a lot of the 7th) isn't growing as fast, but it's seeing a large influx of Hispanic and Asian immigrants, along with a lot of its original white residents (the ones who put Newt Gingrich into office) hot-footing it out of there to exurbs further north, like Cherokee and Forsyth Counties. My prediction is that the new district in 2012 will be formed out of these northern exurban counties and will be strongly GOP, but by the late-2010s the 7th will have fallen to the Democrats.


[ Parent ]
Really?
I'd watch the 3rd. It' 22% black now, up several percent from 2000. I would be recruiting a plausible candidate for the next Presidential cycle. Westmoreland could easily be the next Virgil Goode.  

[ Parent ]
I agree
John Linder and Phil Gingrey's days are numbered.  I fully expect to see the more rural/exurban areas of their districts peeled off.  As those districts become more and more focused on the suburban (hell, even urban although not in the way we imagine), better educated, more cosmopolitian, and more diverse, I really don't see them putting up with the extremism of Linder and Gingrey.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
RE: Butler County in PA
Actually, I had no problem getting them.  As I expected, the section in the 4th District was really bad, going 12,574 for Obama to 24,684 for McCain.  Places like Cranberry Township were really bad.  The 3rd District section was not good at all, either, just not as bad.  19,686 to 32,390 is what I came up with.

Again, those suburban/exurban growth areas are the worst.

I also noticed that the Slippery Rock area we actually won.  In Indiana County, the town of Indiana and the surrounding area we actually did very well in.  Most of the rest we did really poorly in.

Maybe that is what we need down there: more university and college towns.

Maybe other people found it, but I did not see the precinct results for either Venango or Armstrong Counties.

Given the lead that Obama has in the 3rd district outside those two counties and the amount of each county that is in the 3rd district, I would venture to say that Obama actually did win the 3rd district.

I do notice that much of the best Democratic territory in Mercer County went to Altmire's 4th.

Maybe they can get rid of Tim Murphy's district when we lost one seat, using the 5th and 9th eat up more Republican territory down in the southwest and giving more Democratic friendly territory to the 3rd, 4th, and 12th.


More likely
the Democrats will agree to eliminate the 12th district in exchange for letting them draw the rest of the map to shore up their districts and redraw Gerlach's district (Gerlach probably will be running statewide in 2010 and 2012 anyway.)

[ Parent ]
That is deal Democrats should take n/t


[ Parent ]
I dunno
The 2002 repub-drawn map turned out so well maybe we should just let them draw the next map too.

[ Parent ]
Fool Me Once,
Shame on you . . .  You fooled me, can't get fooled again!
~Pennsylvania Republican Party Motto

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Ah, the accidental wit and wisdom
of a bucket of cow chips George W. Bush.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
TX-28
Isn't that Doggett's district?  How the heck did Bush carry his district in 2004?  That guy is a solid liberal.  I thought his district was similarly very liberal.

Doggett is in TX-25
Which Bush carried in '00 (by 53-47) but lost in '04 (54-46 for Kerry). Remember, his district used to be more solidly Dem before the '06 Supreme Court-ordered redistricting -- the same round that made TX-23 winnable for us.

[ Parent ]
Oh, forgot to add
TX-28 is Cuellar's district.

[ Parent ]
And Cuellar is pretty much a DINO himself.
IIRC, he was the only Dem to be endorsed by the Club for (Democratic) Growth.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Campaigned for Bush in 2000


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
All the people who supported George W. Bush should reward themselves with a boot to the head.
All Republicans who actively campaigned for Bush willingly should reward themselves with one additional boot to the head.

All Democrats who supported Bush should reward themselves with two additional boots to the head.

All Democrats who actively campaigned for Bush willingly should reward themselves with eight additional boots to the head.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
And by the way...
Screw you, Zell.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
And screw you too, Gary!
Ex-Rep. Gary Condit (DINO-CA) voted against Bill Clinton more often than any other Dem in Congress and was one of the few D's who voted for Shrub's 2001 tax cuts. The GOP had a very small edge in the House and sought conservative Dems very intensely.

http://www.commondreams.org/vi...

"When Condit cast one of the few Democratic votes for President Bush's budget and tax cut package," according to the San Jose Mercury News, "he was rewarded with a seat at Bush's table during a celebration of the president's first 100 days in office."

His reputation as California's Zell Miller goes back to his Assembly days in the 1980s as a member of the "Gang of 5" conservative Dems disenchanted with the liberal Speaker Willie Brown. Dems held a 44-36 majority, and the "Gang of 5" threatened to defect and elect a Republican as Speaker. Fortunately, their plans were thwarted, though it was because a Republican Assemblyman died.

And this may come as a shock to you guys, but Condit was another "family man", who publicly demanded Bill Clinton "come clean" with the Lewinsky deal and was caught in an affair of his own.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Fortunately, Condit is now out of office and his successor Dennis Cardoza, though far from my favorite member of the House, is an improvement over Gary.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Wow.
What a douche.

Let's coax him and Tim Mahoney into running again as Republicans.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
Traficant too
He was in the similar mode, crooked and a DINO.  He also had the worst tupay of all-time.

[ Parent ]
And a funny thing.
Condit was the only nay vote in the House on expelling Traficant!

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
And speaking of Traficant.
He was strongly against illegal immigration, and believed B-1 Bob Dornan's defeat by Loretta Sanchez in 1996 was the fault of illegal aliens possibly voting and called for a new election. Six years later, Sanchez co-sponsored the bill expelling Traficant!

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Liberal Texas districts still have low PVIs
TX-28 is Cuellar, and was R+1, but TX-25 is actually only D+1.

Most Texan Democratic districts have lower PVIs than you'd think. Partly this is the home state effect, partly this is Bush's success with Hispanics, partly this is the remains of conservative straight-ticket voters, but there are only three districts which are more than D+9. All three are held by black representatives (TX-09, D+21; TX-18, D+23; TX-30, D+26).

Of the other 9, there are three demographic groups:

1)TX-17: Chet Edwards (insanely Republican district)
2)TX-15, TX-23, TX-27, TX-28: Ruben Hinojosa, Ciro Rodriguez, Solomon Ortiz, Henry Cuellar (heavily Hispanic districts that would normally be classed as swingish)
3) TX-16, TX-20, TX-25, TX-29: Silvestre Reyes, Charlie Gonzalez, Lloyd Doggett, Gene Green (equally Hispanic districts (although Anglo Democrats can probably last until their retirements) but with a large but not overwhelming Democratic bent)

I suspect that TX-17 will remain impossible for anybody not named Chet Edwards, and the black districts will only get more Democratic, but I don't know about the other districts. I think the difference here is rural vs. urban. Therefore I suspect that whilst group 3 can see huge margins as the white population isn't powered by any racial animus, group 2 will lag behind due to an active and very Republican white voting bloc.


[ Parent ]
Figured Obama hit 90% in one of the Philly districts
Amazes me that a district can be that one-sided.  Republicans just can't win statewide when Philadelphia turns out numbers like that.

Impressive numbers in the Atlanta suburbs as well.  Georgia is a long-term goal, and it will likely be won the same way Virginia, and then North Carolina were.

Those Indiana numbers are even crazier.  Obama outperformed Al Gore by a full 30% in IN-07, the Indianapolis-based district.

For that matter, he even outperformed Gore by 28% in TN-09, the Memphis-based district.  Needless to say, that's Gore's home state and he only lost it by 4%.  Of course, in the rest of the state (except Nashville) Obama cratered and we will have a tough time holding any of our seats besides Cohen's and Cooper's if the incumbents retire.



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