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Wednesday, July 28, 2004
Kerry Looking Very Strong in Oregon
Posted by Chris Bowers(Cross posted from MyDD)
The last three non-partisan polls to come out of Oregon make the state look pretty safe for Kerry this election cycle:
Zogby, July 19-23, MoE 3.9
Kerry: 52.0
Bush: 42.8
Nader: 1.1
American Research Group, July 19-22, 600 LV, MoE 4
Kerry: 50
Bush: 42
Nader: 4
Unfavorables
Kerry: 35
Bush: 48
Research 2000, May 6-8 and 10, 603 LV, MoE 4
Unfavorables
Kerry: 32
Bush: 46
Numbers like these place Oregon on the outer edge of swing states, such as Colorado, Louisiana and Pennsylvania, that seemingly could only be swung in the event of a landslide one way or the other. The Kerry campaign spent a lot of time working on Oregon (at least in terms of advertising dollars) this spring, and it seems to have paid off. Come September and October, Kerry appears to have one fewer state to worry about.
Posted at 11:58 AM in Oregon | Technorati
Comments
Kossack bassjhs has had a running series on the same topic, why he thinks Oregon is no longer a battleground state.
Posted by: DavidNYC at July 28, 2004 07:17 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Oregon is look strong for Kerry now. But, did you hear Kerry won't be running any commericials in August? Poor planning on his part. He needs to be on air.
Posted by: Rock_nj at July 28, 2004 07:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Poor planning on his part.
To the contrary - the Kerry campaign has known since he won the nomination that they'd have exactly $75 million to play with from the end of the convention until election day. This move was clearly planned a long time ago. Plus, ACT, the Media Fund, MoveOn, NDN, etc. will almost certainly step up.
Posted by: DavidNYC at July 28, 2004 09:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I just read that the DNC plans on spending $6 Mil this month on Kerry ads. But, with $75 Million to play with, and only 3 months to go, why can't Kerry spend $5 Million or so on ads? Seems kind of foolish to me. He won't run out of money. Besides, can't the party spend money on him for getting out the vote activities.
Posted by: Rock_nj at July 29, 2004 08:51 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I just read that the DNC plans on spending $6 Mil this month on Kerry ads. But, with $75 Million to play with, and only 3 months to go, why can't Kerry spend $5 Million or so on ads? Seems kind of foolish to me. He won't run out of money. Besides, can't the party spend money on him for getting out the vote activities.
Posted by: Rock_nj at July 29, 2004 08:51 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I'm no expert here, but from what I've read the party can spend as little or as much on Kerry as they like. If it were me, I'd probably keep my fundraising going and funnel it to the party. I just don't know if thats allowed. The campaign is the only spender who is limited to the 75 million. I suspect he pulled out of OR because the 75 million is best spent in tightly contested states like OH, MO, AZ, NV, WV, and/or FL. The 527's and the party will certainly pick where he pulled out. Just a side note, his ads have started showing up in NC again.
Posted by: Jason-Charlotte at July 29, 2004 09:47 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
A New York Newsday/LA Times polling has Kerry 49 Bush 48 in NEW JERSEY. What's the deal there? I de-registered in New Jersey, where I live, and registered in Pennsylvania, where I go to college, because I thought it was going to be a closer battle. Was I wrong?
Posted by: James Crosson at July 29, 2004 10:04 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
A New York Newsday/LA Times polling has Kerry 49 Bush 48 in NEW JERSEY. What's the deal there? I de-registered in New Jersey, where I live, and registered in Pennsylvania, where I go to college, because I thought it was going to be a closer battle. Was I wrong?
Posted by: James Crosson at July 29, 2004 10:05 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
This is a little unsettling...
http://1010wins.com/topstories/winstopstories_story_211073640.html
"TRENTON, N.J. _ New Jersey voters remain split over who should be the next president.
A Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind Poll released yesterday found 45 percent of registered voters favor Democrat John Kerry, while 43 percent say they'll vote for President Bush. Ten percent were undecided.
And Kerry's support diminishes when independent candidate Ralph Nader is included in the polling. The results show 42 percent would support Kerry, 41 percent Bush and six percent Nader."
Posted by: Nim at July 29, 2004 10:09 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I don't know? I live in New Jersey. I see a lot more Kerry bumperstickers than Bush bumperstickers. I also get the feeling that NJ is trending Democratic. Not sure what to make of those polls. I think Kerry will win NJ by at least 5%.
Posted by: Rock_nj at July 29, 2004 01:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The Fairleigh Dickinson web page about their survey methodology (http://publicmind.fdu.edu/kerrystands/sd.html) says that the survey was conducted by random dialing. It seems to me that better polling organizations know they need to take a little more care than that to get a representative sample.
In April, FDU said Bush was up by 4% in NJ.
Posted by: Jerome at July 29, 2004 01:21 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I live in NJ too, and had just been assuming the state was a given for Kerry.
Of course FDU isn't a bastion of intellectual might, but I had assumed they could at least conduct a simple opinion poll properly. Maybe not...
Posted by: Nim at July 29, 2004 01:31 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Yes, FDU's poll a few months ago had Bush +4%. At the time, the articles said the polling was conducted by a political scientist who had conservative leanings. I wouldn't put too much stock in FDU's polling.
Posted by: Rock_nj at July 29, 2004 01:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment