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Monday, July 24, 2006
Sleepers
Posted by James L.I've been meaning to write this post for several weeks, but I've hesitated. After all, the subject in and of itself--races that may not show up as even blips on the national radar screen ending up being wildly competitive--invites a great deal of subjective analysis at this point in the cycle. However, there are a number of metrics to work with to separate the wheat from the chaff (the longshots from the longershots): cash-on-hand, past electoral weaknesses of the incumbent, party registration trends, etc.
We've already seen the biggest sleeper race in years erupt this summer in Connecticut. Who realistically thought that someone like Ned Lamont, a political novice, could come out of nowhere and force the Lieberman campaign into a state of near-meltdown? Well, some people thought it was plausible, but probably not to this extent. Still, the vulnerabilities were always there. Joe's presidential bid in 2003-2004 clearly showed his complete incompetence at appealing to the Democratic base, and it translated into a significant level of disapproval for Lieberman among Connecticut liberals. That chink in Lieberman's political foundation was ripped wide open by an aggressive Lamont campaign, resulting in a campaign that has rocked the DC political establishment at its foundations.
So are we going to see any other races that sneak up out of nowhere and capture our attention, like Brian Schweitzer's remarkably close bid for Senate against Conrad Burns in 2000, or the almost total self-destruction of Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY) against Dan Mongiardo in the 2004 election? I was originally going to title this post: "Nebraska and Westward:'06 House Sleeper Races", but in the meantime, Markos already diaried the campaigns I wanted to profile: Maxine Moul and Scott Kleeb in Nebraska and Gary Trauner in Wyoming.
Since Markos went over the main points, I won't go into detail, but Kleeb (a hunky rancher/scholar type) and Moul (a former Lt.-Gov. and state economic development officer) seem like unusually good fits for their districts and the NE Democratic Party has more organizational strength in it than in years past. I'm looking forward to seeing what they can do with their races. Cubin has high unfavorables (49-47 favorable-unfavorable), and is infamous for being dead weight in Wyoming's congressional delegation. Actually, "dead weight", might be too kind for her. Some of her career "highlights" include distributing penis-shaped cookies to her male colleagues in the Wyoming State Senate, and implying that all African-Americans are drug addicts. She only leads 47%-43% against Trauner in a head-to-head according to the latest (and only, to my knowledge) public poll available on this race (May, Rasmussen). WY-AL rarely comes up when the national prognosticators discuss the "magic 15" seats that the Democrats could win in order to take back the House, but there's little reason not to believe that this race is going to turn hot. Just look a few posts down to DavidNYC's latest discussion on some of the most well-financed challengers, and you'll see that Trauner is already beating Cubin in available campaign cash. Cubin is known to regularly under-perform the Republican ticket in Wyoming. If there's going to be a "wave" this year, l wouldn't be surprised to see Babs gasping for air.
What other races might we see jump into the headlights this November? CQ Politics has an excellent piece up on well-funded longshots. Money can't buy you an election if you don't have any other favorables in your corner, but every sleeper needs to have the resources and infrastructure in place to make a good race out of it. It's worth noting that 7 of the 9 candidates that CQ profiles are Democrats, including netroots candidate Dan Seals (IL-1), Judy Feder (VA-10), Ellen Simon (AZ-01), Moul (NE-01), John Pavich (IL-11), Kleeb (NE-03), and Trauner (WY-AL). If the Democrats experience a major wind at their backs this fall, solid 2nd tier challengers like these are the ones who may turn into sleeper suprises.
(I also say that my sentimental fave, Mean Jean Schmidt may be in for a bit of a bumpy ride if Vic Wulsin can get more funding. The Cook Political report recently added OH-02 to their list of competitive races (pdf) under the "likely Republican" heading, which seems about right, but it's still nice to see.)
Posted at 04:30 PM in 2006 Elections | Technorati
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Other sleeper races:
CA-26: Republican incumbent David Dreier only won 53.6% of the vote in 2004. He faces Cynthia Matthews in a rematch from 2004 in this exurban district north of Los Angeles. The only problem here is that Dreier has an ENORMOUS warchest ($3.01 million) and Matthews only has a paltry $30,000. She deserves a little more love from the netroots (her position on Iraq on the campaign website is VERY detailed and informative).
http://www.matthews4congress.com/index.htm
KS-2: We've heard a lot about moderate Republicans defecting to the Democratic Party in the heartland. Republican incumbent Jim Ryun received only 56.3% of the vote against Nancy Boyda in 2004. Boyda is back to challenge Ryun in a district which contains Topeka, Manhattan, and most of Eastern Kansas. Boyda's raised about $321,000 to this point and Rahm Emanuel ought to pay her a visit (money goes a long way in Kansas).
Boyda's stands on immigration, public education, and healthcare are solidly in the Democratic camp.
http://www.nancyforcongress.com/index.html
NV-3: Although we haven't heard a lot about this CD based in suburban Vegas, Harry Reid is aggressively backing Democratic challenger Tessa Hafen to unseat incumbent Jon Porter. Even some Republicans concede Porter is facing a battle for his political life. Hafen has raised over $760,000 and only faces a 2:1 disadvantage in COH.
NJ-5: Scott Garrett voted AGAINST the Voting Rights Act and thus became the northernmost Congressman to condone racial inequality. He faces Paul Aronsohn, who's raised about $100,000. Aronsohn needs more dough to compete in an expensive TV market (NJ-5 is in the NY TV market and extends from Warren County bordering PA, through Sussex, northern Passaic and northern Bergen). Garrett's only raised $475,000 himself, so if we can get Aronsohn to a half-million COH, he can give Garrett hell. Paul's issues page is a dream for policy wonks.
NY-26: NRCC Chair Tom Reynolds won only 56% of the vote last time in a rural/suburban district extending from Buffalo to Rochester. He faces Jack Davis in a 2004 rematch. Davis has raised $340,000, a decent amount to compete here were it not for Reynolds' three million. In this region, the law of diminishing returns kicks in at about $1.5 million COH, so Davis will need PLENTY of dough and some serious Hillary/Spitzer coattails. Davis cites many superb sources to form his issues page, and is well worth a gander.
TX-32: Congressman Pete Sessions underperformed President Bush by 5% here in 2004, only garnering 54% of the vote. He faces Will Pryor in this suburban Dallas district. Pryor has collected about $180,000 to this point and he's way behind Sessions in the money game (Sessions has $880,000 COH). Pryor, like Matthews and Davis above, needs more attention from the netroots. He presents a solid Democratic outlook on a variety of issues.
WV-2: This one is my upset special for 2006. Shelley Moore Capito, one of the "rising stars" of the Republican Party, faces one of my favorite challengers this cycle, Democrat Mark Callaghan. This district cuts all the way from the eastern WV panhandle to the Ohio border, and contains Charleston, Elkins, and Martinsburg. Callaghan's struggling in the cash battle with only $26,000 to Capito's $1,070,000. Callaghan needs some serious help in the fundraising game because he's a VERY solid candidate. He's pro-gun, but is solidly progressive on the other issues (and you can't be vehemently anti-gun and win there).
Posted by: dpinzow ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.swingstateproject.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at July 24, 2006 07:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
WV-02 - I live in this district (Berkeley County) and I would oh so love to see Callaghan win. WV is a strange state - its pretty heavily democratic but its also quite conservative. Pro-gun, Pro-life (what a loaded term) and Pro-military. Callaghan seems like a good fit and Im sure he would do quite well if he could get some $$$ in the bank.
Posted by: AlecBGreen at July 24, 2006 11:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Might want to take a look at MI-09, where former local Air America-affiliate talk show host Nancy Skinner is taking on GOP incumbent Joe Knollenberg--assuming that Knollenberg manages to beat his own Republican primary challenger, Pan Godchaux.
Michigan's 9th district (basically consisting of Oakland County) used to lean Republican, but has been trending Democratic for the past several years, and is now poised at a flat 50/50 split. Knollenberg's past opponents have been underfunded and underenergized, but Skinner has the name recognition and--so far--enough funding to make a go of it. Add the natural blue trend of the district, PLUS Godchaux's GOP primary challenge, PLUS Knollenberg's unexpectedly stupid Hawaii trip/Amtrak stories, PLUS the national "kick the bums out"/Dem-trend, and Skinner has a decent shot at electing the first Democrat to this district in something like 40 years.
http://www.skinnerforcongress.com/
FYI, we've endorsed her over at Democracy for Metro Detroit (of which I'm the webmaster):
Posted by: Charles Gaba at July 25, 2006 09:06 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Might want to take a look at MI-09, where former local Air America-affiliate talk show host Nancy Skinner is taking on GOP incumbent Joe Knollenberg--assuming that Knollenberg manages to beat his own Republican primary challenger, Pan Godchaux.
Michigan's 9th district (basically consisting of Oakland County) used to lean Republican, but has been trending Democratic for the past several years, and is now poised at a flat 50/50 split. Knollenberg's past opponents have been underfunded and underenergized, but Skinner has the name recognition and--so far--enough funding to make a go of it. Add the natural blue trend of the district, PLUS Godchaux's GOP primary challenge, PLUS Knollenberg's unexpectedly stupid Hawaii trip/Amtrak stories, PLUS the national "kick the bums out"/Dem-trend, and Skinner has a decent shot at electing the first Democrat to this district in something like 40 years.
http://www.skinnerforcongress.com/
FYI, we've endorsed her over at Democracy for Metro Detroit (of which I'm the webmaster):
Posted by: Charles Gaba at July 25, 2006 09:34 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
According to that Cook report, OH-2 is +13 GOPer.
On the other hand, OH-01 is only GOP +1.
Just sayin'...
Posted by: Ohanon at July 25, 2006 12:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Oh, I agree--OH-01 is infinitely more likely to be competitive; but is it a sleeper? I don't know about that. I've heard enough talk about it that I wouldn't exactly call it "off the radar".
Posted by: James L. at July 25, 2006 12:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment