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Monday, November 07, 2005

NJ-Gov: Thoughts on Polling

Posted by DavidNYC

Chris observed just a few days ago that Doug Forrester had apparently hit a ceiling of 42% support in public opinion polls. However, three of the four most recent polls show him pushing north of that mark. Two (Marist and SUSA) put him at 44, and Quinnipiac puts him at 45 - Forrester's best showings to date.

The good news is that the Q-Poll also gives Corzine his highest mark so far, 52%, and SUSA's got him at 50 (though he's seen 51 before). Marist, which puts Corzine at +5, has also been pretty scattered. It gave him that notorious +2 a month ago, only to give him his first double-digit lead (+10) since early September two weeks later. Now they're splitting the difference. So I don't know what to make of their polling.

I still think Chris's original take is correct - that Forrester needs to do incredibly well with undecideds tomorrow to pull off an upset. A week ago, I'd have said that was almost impossible. But today, I think there's something of an outside chance.

Posted at 11:31 AM in 2005 Elections, New Jersey | Technorati

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