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SSP Daily Digest: 10/21 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Thu Oct 21, 2010 at 8:17 AM EDT


AK-Sen: Opinion Research (PDF) for CNN/Time (10/15-19, likely voters, 9/24-28 in parens):

Scott McAdams (D): 23 (22)
Joe Miller (R): 37 (38)
Lisa Murkowski (I): (37) 36
Undecided: 2 (2)
(MoE: ±3%)

Look at this crap question wording:

If the election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were Scott McAdams, the Democrat and Joe Miller, the Republican, who would you be more likely to vote for or would you write in the name of Lisa Murkowski, who is also running?

AK-Gov: Opinion Research (PDF) for CNN/Time (10/15-19, likely voters, 9/24-28 in parens):

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 36 (38)
Sean Parnell (R-inc): 62 (57)
Undecided: 1 (2)
(MoE: ±3%)

AR-Sen: Opinion Research (PDF) for CNN/Time (10/15-19, likely voters, no trendlines):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 41
John Boozman (R): 55
Undecided: 2
(MoE: ±3.5%)

AR-Gov: Opinion Research (PDF) for CNN/Time (10/15-19, likely voters, no trendlines):

Mike Beebe (D-inc): 62
Jim Keet (R): 33
Undecided: 2
(MoE: ±3.5%)

CA-Sen: PPIC (10/10-17, likely voters, 9/19-26 in parens):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 43 (42)
Carly Fiorina (R): 38 (35)
Undecided: 13 (17)
(MoE: ±3.5%)

CA-Gov: PPIC (10/10-17, likely voters, 9/19-26 in parens):

Jerry Brown (D): 44 (37)
Meg Whitman (R): 36 (38)
Undecided: 16 (18)
(MoE: ±3.5%)

FL-Sen: Opinion Research (PDF) for CNN/Time (10/15-19, likely voters, 9/24-28 in parens):

Kendrick Meek (D): 20 (23)
Marco Rubio (R): 46 (42)
Charlie Crist (I): 32 (31)
(MoE: ±3.5%)

FL-Gov: Opinion Research (PDF) for CNN/Time (10/15-19, likely voters, 9/24-28 in parens):

Alex Sink (D): 46 (45)
Rick Scott (R): 49 (47)
(MoE: ±3.5%)

IL-Sen: Public Policy Polling (D) (PDF) (10/14-16, likely voters, 9/23-26 in parens):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 40 (36)
Mark Kirk (R): 42 (40)
LeAlan Jones (G): 4 (8)
Michael Labno (L): 3 (3)
Undecided: 10 (13)
(MoE: ±4.2%)

IL-Sen: Anzalone-Liszt (D) for the DSCC (10/13-17, likely voters, no trendlines):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 41
Mark Kirk (R): 36
Michael Labno (L): 3
LeAlan Jones (G): 4
Undecided: 15
(MoE: ±4%)

KY-Sen: Mason-Dixon (PDF) for KY media (10/18-19, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jack Conway (D): 43
Rand Paul (R): 48
Undecided: 9
(MoE: ±4%)

MA-10: NMB Research (R) for the NRCC (10/6-7, likely voters, no trendlines):

Bill Keating (D): 42
Jeff Perry (R): 44
(MoE: ±4.9%)

ME-Gov: Pan Atlantic (PDF) (10/11-15, likely voters, no trendlines):

Libby Mitchell (D): 28
Paul LePage (R): 33
Elliot Cutler (I): 14
Shawn Moody (I): 5
Kevin Scott (I): 0
Undecided: 20
(MoE: ±4.4%)

ME-01: Pan Atlantic (PDF) (10/11-15, likely voters, no trendlines):

Chellie Pingree (D-inc): 49
Dean Scontras (R):  33
Undecided: 18
(MoE: ±6.2%)

ME-02: Pan Atlantic (PDF) (10/11-15, likely voters, no trendlines):

Mike Michaud (D-inc): 49
Jason Levesque (R): 29
Undecided: 22
(MoE: ±6.2%)

MI-07: EPIC/MRA for MI media (10/16-17, likely voters, no trendlines):

Mark Schauer (D-inc): 45
Tim Walberg (R): 39
Other: 7
Undecided: 9
(MoE: ±5%)

MI-09: EPIC/MRA for MI media (10/16-17, likely voters, no trendlines):

Gary Peters (D-inc): 48
Rocky Raczkowski (R): 43
Other: 4
Undecided: 5
(MoE: ±5%)

MO-04: Wilson Research (R) (10/17-18, likely voters, no trendlines):

Ike Skelton (D-inc): 42
Vicky Hartzler (R): 42
(MoE: ±5.7%)

NY-22: Magellan  (R) (10/19, likely voters, no trendlines):

Maurice Hinchey (D-inc): 43
George Phillips (R): 43
(MoE: ±2.9%)

NY-Sen: Siena (PDF) (10/14-18, likely voters, 9/16-18 in parens):

Chuck Schumer (D-inc): 67 (63)
Jay Townsend (R): 28 (30)
Undecided: 5 (6)
(MoE: ±3.9%)

NY-Sen-B: Siena (PDF) (10/14-18, likely voters, 9/16-18 in parens):

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 60 (57)
Joe DioGuardi (R): 31 (31)
Undecided: 9 (12)
(MoE: ±3.9%)

NY-Gov: Siena (PDF) (10/14-18, likely voters, 10/3-4 in parens):

Andrew Cuomo (D): 63 (56)
Carl Paladino (R): 26 (32)
Undecided: 9 (11)
(MoE: ±3.9%)

Bonus: Eric Schneiderman (D) leads Dan Donovan (R) in the AG race, 44-37. Incumbent Tom DiNapoli leads Republican Harry Wilson in the comptroller race, 49-32.

OH-Sen: Quinnipiac (10/12-17, likely voters, 9/29-10/3 in parens):

Lee Fisher (D): 34 (36)
Rob Portman (R): 55
Undecided: 10 (8)
(MoE: ±2.8%)

OH-Sen: Opinion Research (PDF) for CNN/Time (10/15-19, likely voters, 9/10-14 in parens):

Lee Fisher (D): 40 (41)
Rob Portman (R): 55 (52)
Undecided: 3 (2)
(MoE: ±3.5%)

OH-Gov: Opinion Research (PDF) for CNN/Time (10/15-19, likely voters, 9/10-14 in parens):

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 48 (44)
John Kasich (R): 47 (51)
Undecided: 2 (1)
(MoE: ±3.5%)

OR-01: SurveyUSA for KATU-TV (10/16-18, likely voters, no trendlines):

David Wu (D-inc): 51
Rob Corniles (R): 42
Don LaMunyon (C): 2
(MoE: ±4.1%)

PA-04: Susquehanna (10/16-17, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jason Altmire (D-inc): 47
Keith Rothfus (R): 35
Undecided: 18
(MoE: ±4.9%)

WA-Sen: Public Policy Polling (D) (10/14-16, likely voters, 7/27-8/1 in parens):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 49 (49)
Dino Rossi (R): 47 (46)
Undecided: 4 (5)
(MoE: ±2.3%)

Note: Old trendlines.

WA-Sen: Marist (PDF) for McClatchy Newspapers (10/14-17, likely voters, no trendlines):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 48
Dino Rossi (R): 47
Undecided: 5
(MoE: ±4%)
DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 10/21 (Morning Edition)
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SSP Daily Digest: 10/21 (Morning Edition) | 214 comments
Arkansas Democrats coming home?
That looks to me what that AR-Sen poll is saying.  55-41 seems about right for Arkansas's basic party ID these days; that would also help to explain the tightening in AR-01.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
OR-5 SUSA
Bruun 51 Schrader 41.

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

It's SUSA, but they also Wu ahead by 9 in OR-1, as noted above.  Nonetheless, the party breakdown -- 44(R)-37(D)-18(I) -- in a +1 Democratic district, strikes me as too generous to the Republicans.

What the what?
That's way too generous to the Republicans.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
This is in the realm of the ridiculous
Again, a la VA-05, SUSA finds a Republican significantly outperforming their internals.  The last internal from the Bruun campaign had them only +4, and that's from the last week!

In the SUSA world, the Dems are going to lose 100 seats.  I just don't buy it, their House level polls are way off of everybody else.  Again, the Republican is winning 18-34 by 17% here.

Interesting bit in the crosstabs: Schrader is leading 47/46 with those who have already voted.  I would have to look, but in a vote-by-mail state, does the "early vote" trend tend to reverse itself?

[ Parent ]
The OR-01 poll, with Wu leading
doesn't have these curiosities by the way.  They have Wu winning the youth vote, and the early vote numbers are fairly close to the final result.
[ Parent ]
Although that poll does undersample Hispanics
Who are a BIG part of the reason why Washington County has changed from red to blue the last decade.
[ Parent ]
It depends
The folks who vote early are your most committed supporters and not only your most committed but those that always vote (folks like me).
[ Parent ]
Plausible, I suppose
that the sample would be 55 percent Democrats plus Independents (it IS a district that Bush carried in '04, albeit narrowly, and likely voter models do tend to oversample Republicans.)

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
OR-5 has changed
I think Schrader will win this one by 3-5% and we may even snatch Bruun's old state house seat from the Repubs to boot.
[ Parent ]
The reg. edge in OR-5 is D +5
I call BS.  SUSA has been missing the mark here in OR this year.

For example, they only have Kitz winning by 3% in the Portland metro.  That's at least 10% too low.  Dems always win the PDX metro by 10-15% at a minimum.

[ Parent ]
New FL-22 Poll
Sunshine State News Poll: FL-22: Allen West leads Rep. Ron Klein 47-44. This is tough. Cook moved this race to Toss Up yesterday before this poll came out, probably has similar inside info.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
Another Republican poll
Trying to hide behind the "sunshine."  This is the group that actually does it:

http://www.votersurveyservice....

[ Parent ]
Susquehanna
Susquehanna does independent polling too, same like PPP. They and the other "GOP" pollster We Ask America were the only ones to get PA-12 right.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
[ Parent ]
it has been a tossup
for a while now. Both Klein and West have led in private and public polls for a long time.
[ Parent ]
FL-22
I'm curious to see what the news of West's affiliation with that "biker gang" or whatever it was will do to his numbers. According to this poll it will do nothing. Even though this is a GOP insider poll this will be a nail biter come election day. In the end I think that Klein should be able to pull this race into team blue's hands very narrowly.

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
[ Parent ]
Wet
West is running a very powerful and effective ad right now, though I think he should have put it up sooner.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

[ Parent ]
Looks
pretty generic to me.  Though generic is enough to often win.
[ Parent ]
Confirmation that Hinchey is in danger.
Out of curiousity has there been any polling of either Higgins or Slaughter since labor day?

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...
A Republican psy-ops poll
Hinchey is not in danger.
[ Parent ]
Hinchey
So why is Hinchey bringing in the big guns, why are outside groups spending? In vain? They don't have what to do with their money? It's about time we acknowledge that he has a real fight.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
[ Parent ]
Why
Why is Barney Frank and John Dingel bringing people in?  Because they actually don't have a cakewalk for the first time in ages.  But that doesn't mean they're in "danger" of actually losing.  And certainly relying on Republican polls to claim that they are isn't the way to prove it.
[ Parent ]
Preventative stuff, in all cases
They see the writing on the wall, this could be a "wave" year for Republicans, so they're taking precautions to ensure that they're not taken by surprise.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
Hinchey is definitely in danger
That's not alarmism on his part or mine. That's a recognition that after doing minimal fundraising and little in the way of preparation for a ground game, he's now getting pounded for a local scandal (right across the river from me) at the same time national GOP forces are moving in. I didn't think Phillips had a shot; he's a nobody and he got crushed last time. But local factors combined with a national injection of funds could create a surprise loss.

As it stands right now, Hinchey's backyard struggles could cost him in his home county of Ulster. I'm worried that his liberal base is going to be turned off and will skip this race. He'll win Poughkeepsie, but I think he'll lose the Orange segment of his district by a good margin, while running behind in his portions of Delaware and Tioga. At that point, he needs big margins in Tompkins and Sullivan Counties, because his advantage in Binghamton could be nullified by the rest of marginal Broome County.

I have this as Tilt Rep right now...and I'm a guy who "only" sees a net seat gain in the low-30s for Republicans right now. I'll adjust that if I see Hinchey on the air, preferably defining Phillips in harsh terms. This is really the first time in more than a decade that voters in the district are considering an alternative, and Hinchey has to get in front. That I even have to say this on October 21 is disturbing.


29, Male, Dem, NY-20  

[ Parent ]
Aw cmon
Higgins and Slaughter are safe, especially the latter.  Both of them typically win with well over 60%, maybe more than 70% in good years.  Maybe they don't break 60% this year, but Buffalo is still a reliably democratic city, as is Rochester.  I don't think we have much to worry about with either.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
[ Parent ]
NY-27 and NY-28
Higgins' district actually isn't that Democratic. Obama won only 54% of the vote there, though he didn't overperform there like he did elsewhere in NY.

It was actually designed for Republican Jack Quinn; if you look at Dave's App you'll notice that most of the most Democratic-leaning parts of Buffalo are attached to Slaughter's district (which would never go GOP in its present form) instead.

However...I don't even know who's running against Higgins. One would think that whoever this person is would be on our radar screen, raising funds, getting positive buzz from Fox News and such. They wouldn't even be hurt as much by Paladino since Paladino is from there and as such will likely overperform a little.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
Higgins has a weird district
he barely won in 2004 and then got something like 80% in 2006. how often do you get that kind of swing between two consecutive cycles?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Plenty, I'd Imagine
Sometimes an opponent catches fire or someone sees an opportunity in a down year for the incumbent's party.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03
[ Parent ]
It was an open seat in '04
Republicans ran a very competent candidate that year, which probably wasn't the case in '06 (plus '06 being a very Democratic year helped.)

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
If I recall correctly...
It was one of the few Dem pickups that cycle.
[ Parent ]
Higgins and Slaughter barely have opponents
Their opponents have combined to raise less than $60K. The Buffalo area is cause for concern in the long run, but not this cycle.


29, Male, Dem, NY-20  
[ Parent ]
In a year like this one you always worry.
I assume both are safe.  But I'd like to see some current numbers backing that up.

Higgins in particular has a district that gave the incumbent Republican Jack Quinn  almost 70% of the vote in 2002.  And which Higgins barely won in 2004.  Now yes.  Higgins won by even larger numbers than Quinn did in his last two re-elections.

But in this year especially after what happened with Tom Suozzi I worry very much about Democrats sitting on "safe" seats that previously voted Republican.

Western New York is also in some ways similar to Western Pennsylvania.  The ties of it's white ethnics to the Democratic Party is showing signs of loosening.  It's an area that SHOULD be safe but one shouldn't take for granted.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
I wouldn't worry one bit about Slaughter...
In a year where the main statewide tickets are blowouts, she's not going to lose. Hers is the seat designed to be the Western NY safe spot.  Heck, Maffei and Arcuri are doing mostly ok in the polls...WNY is [likely] not as in danger as it seems.  
[ Parent ]
Suozzui
had to institute huge tax increases when he came into office. That probably had something to do with his loss.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
SC-GOV
Rasmussen gives Haley same 9-pt lead as other independent poll

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
Only Nine points?
Wow.  From Ras, the operation that was giving Haley 20 point leads for months.  Two weeks out, if Sheheen can get a lot of momentum going, he could win.
[ Parent ]
Lincoln
Nice to see her above 40% lol
Ooops, she just fell back under
[ Parent ]
Toomey lead cut to 2 points
the momentum is real
Sestak might or might not be leading, but the momentum appears real.  What should the Dems most take from this?

Motivation.

I hope the Dems can do a major GOTV effort to surge Sestak in.

[ Parent ]
Q has had disaster numbers for most Dems
I'll take Toomey +2 from them.  Their last poll, a month ago, was Toomey +7.  Feeling good still.
[ Parent ]
GOTV
is all that's left.  Previous threads discussed the low absentee ballot numbers due to the strict process.  PA is all about election day.  

The debates might not matter either.  Depends on if the Phillies stay in the playoffs...somewhat :-)

[ Parent ]
CA-Sen: Boxer, Fiorina tied 44-44
Republican poll
Again.
[ Parent ]
Not just a GOP internal...
But one that contradicts what else is out there. Doesn't pass the sniff test for me.

It seems the race has tightened a bit in the last couple of weeks, but PPIC still shows Boxer leading, so I'll believe them over the NRSC any day.

And remember that many CA voters already voted! Vote by mail continues to grow there... Perhaps as much as 50% of the ballots cast in this election will be done so by mail in Cali. It will be hard for Fiorina to push for "more momentum" at this point if many people already voted.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
AK-SEN
That wording is so crap as to render the results absolutely irrelevant.
nate silver suggests momentum isa lot less real than we think
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n...

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
Reasonable article to me...
Only I don't think it applies to the Sestak/Toomey race anymore.

We're not just talking momentum in this race now. We're talking a TIED RACE. We're not seeing Sestak go from down-10 to down-5 and projecting an upward Sestak trend line through election day. We're seeing him poll in the range of -2 to +3.

[ Parent ]
Strickland!
Yowza!  The numbers for Fisher in the Opinion Research poll are realistically depressing, so that doesn't appear to be just a favorable sample issue.  Probably not actually leading, given that Qpac gave him a 10-point deficit yesterday, but single digits at least, and hopefully low single digits.

From MO-3, college in CT-3, lived in NH-1, NH-2, PA-2, and MA-8 in the 3 years since.
Gallup generic ballot internals implausible
So says Alan Abramowitz:

An examination of some of the internals from the latest Gallup survey of likely voters leads to the conclusion that these results are wildly implausible. First, Gallup shows a much larger percentage of Republicans (55% Republican identifiers and leaners vs. 40% Democratic identifiers and leaners) and conservatives (51% conservative vs. 28% moderates and 18% liberals) than we've ever seen in a modern election. They also show a smaller percentage of voters under the age of 30 (7%) and a larger percentage of voters over the age of 65 (27%) than we've seen in any modern election. But that's not all. The candidate preference results for some subgroups of voters are just wildly implausible.

Gallup's latest likely voter survey shows a generic Republican leading a generic Democrat by a whopping 28 points among whites, 62% to 34%. To put those numbers in perspective, in 1994, according to national exit poll data, Republicans only won the white vote by 16 points, 58% to 42%, and that was their best showing since the advent of exit polling. Gallup is telling us that right now the Republican lead among whites who are likely to vote is 12 points larger than the GOP margin among whites in 1994.

But that's not the most implausible result in the latest Gallup likely voter survey. Among nonwhites other than blacks, a group that comprises about 13% of likely voters, a generic Republican is leading a generic Democrat by 10 points, 52% to 42%. That's a group that voted Democratic by a 2-1 margin in the 2006 midterm election. Moreover, it's a group that has never given a majority of its vote to Republican candidates for Congress in any election since the advent of exit polling. According to the 2006 exit poll results, about two-thirds of these "other nonwhite" voters are Latinos. How plausible is it that at a time when the Republican Party is closely associated with stridently anti-immigrant policies that Latino voters are moving in droves toward Republican candidates? Not plausible at all, especially when Gallup's results are directly contradicted by other recent polls of Latino voters.


Actually I Wouldn't Be Surprised If Those Numbers Among White Voters Are Right.....
What was left of the Yellow Dog Democrats in 1994 is completely gone now.  A jump in GOP strength among whites from 58% then to 62% today seems plausible to me.
[ Parent ]
And at the same time
white voters in the pacific west and new england are more liberal than ever. I call it a wash.  
[ Parent ]
Color Me Skeptical On Those Michigan House Races.......
With no Senate race and a 20-point GOP blowout in the Governor's race, I think we're gonna get smashed there this year downballot.  While it's almost impossible to imagine Dingell will be defeated in a D+13 district, the likely suppressed turnout could make it closer than what most of us expect.  
Why?
In 2006, Strickland won the governor's race in Ohio by 30 points, Brown won the Senate race by 20, and yet we only gained ONE congressional seat--from disgraced congressman Bob Ney.  There was a lot of ticket splitting that year, and I expect a lot of ticket splitting in MI from union members who feel guilty for voting for Snyder and trying to justify it by "balancing" the vote with a vote for their Dem congresscritter.
[ Parent ]
Brown Won The Senate Race By 11......
And it was a very high-profile race that broke late after months of being highly competitive, driving turnout.  Not the same dynamic as what's going on in Michigan today.  A closer dynamic was Georgia in 2006 where the biggest race was the 2006 gubernatorial race where Purdue had running away with it and suppressed Democratic turnout.  Meanwhile, the endangered Democratic incumbents Jim Marshall and John Barrow won, but barely eked it out in a strong Democratic climate.
[ Parent ]
In MI in 1994 We Only Lost 1 State House Seat
110 seats, and while it was devastating--we went from a 55-55 tie to a 56-54 R margin--we didn't lose much in the state house, and the only Congressional we lost was an open seat, one of the most competitive in the country, and one Debbie Stabenow won back for us in 1996. And that happened despite the Dems being wiped out at the top of the ticket.  

Peters and Schauer are both excellent candidates--disclosure: I managed Peters' AG campaign in 2002, and my parents live in his district--and they've both raised a boatload of money.  The MI Dem party is one of the most effective parties in the country. And the one with a tougher district--Schauer--is also facing a weirdo who was a fluke one-termer in Congress from 2007-2009 and whom Schauer defeated in 2008.  

I expect them to have tough races, but of the vulnerable freshmen and sophomores, I think Peters and Schauer are among the most likely to survive.

[ Parent ]
hadnt they just changed congressional maps
To make those two seats more competitive?  Couldve been for 2004 maybe.
[ Parent ]
Yeah
Because we had terrible candidates in OH that year for the Congressional seats.  Remember Jane Mitakides?  Or Capri Cafaro?  Or Jeff Seemann?  The only halfway decent candidate we had in any of those races, other than Zack Space and Vic Wulsin, was Bob Shamansky, and he was too old and kooky to win.  I still love his ad though:



The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

[ Parent ]
Do they have straight ticket ballot in Michigan?
Obviously you can still vote for every (R) on the ballot, but that requires more effort. Plenty of people split their tickets, but running 20 points ahead of the top of the ticket is still a challenge unless you're a real fixture.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03
[ Parent ]
But How Many Democrats Will Bother To Vote?
I don't think straight-ticket Republican voters will be the problem so much as Democrats saying "why bother going to the polls" when their only high-profile race is gonna be a Republican landslide.
[ Parent ]
Same story here in Tennessee
where I'm actually considering not bothering to vote seeing how the only races on the ballot are a gubernatorial race that looks like a Republican landslide and a House race in an uber-safe district.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
Agreed.....And It Spells Big Trouble.....
...for Roy Herron and Lincoln Davis....and maybe Jim Cooper too.  He's another Democrat flying under the polling radar who just might find himself unemployed on November 3.
[ Parent ]
I don't live in any of those districts
I live in the 7th.

Cooper wouldn't be a terrible loss, since that's a district where if he managed to lose we'd just win it back in two years anyway, and it's not like he's particularly progressive.  I actually cast a protest vote against Cooper when I lived in the 5th (while I was in law school.)

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
Not important?
His winning or losing could be the difference between Republicans in control, impeaching Obama for jaywalking, and Democrats in control.

I must say, too, I'm shocked to see someone who's interested enough in elections to register and post on this site saying they're thinking about not voting for the candidates they prefer. I understand "I hate all the candidates equally." I don't understand "I like So-And-So, but s/he won't win, anyway."  

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
I will never understand
why some people won't take a few minutes a year to vote.  Just about any given ballot is going to have local elections and proposals that are worth having a say in.
[ Parent ]
Voter registration laws, etc.
Some states (i.e. Tennessee) require you to be registered to vote a month before the election to cast a ballot; this got my dad for years because he never even thought about the election until a couple of weeks before and by then it was too late to register.  Also, in many cases local elections are held at a different time -- in Tennessee, county general elections are held on the same day as the state primaries.  And many people don't really care much about those elections (even though you could really argue that those elections are more likely to have an impact on their livelihoods than the big-ticket elections are.)

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
Also... FYI
Both the state Senate seat and state House seat in the district where I live are uncontested.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
one would think...
You'd see that it was too late, but take the two minutes to register anyway, so you'd be set for the following electcion.  How many years did he wait till the last minute and then decide not to register anyway?
[ Parent ]
15 years or so, I think
He finally got around to doing it in '08.  After moving to CA and then back to Tennessee, I think his previous registration must have gotten purged or something, who knows (I'm fairly sure he was registered in Tennessee at one point before that.)

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
the federal government
Should just make same-day registration at the polls legal nationwide.  I accidently waited to re-register at the last minute and would have had to convince my Republican dad to vouch that I lived there.  Probably wouldve made me skip the gubernatorial in order to do so!  (Which reminds me that I need to start talking up Horner to him so he doesn't vote for Emmer who is also our state rep.)
[ Parent ]
Well yeah
Especially when you consider that the whole reason behind the registration deadlines a month out was an attempt to disenfranchise black voters.  You'd think the feds would be all over that one.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
i dont agree with this
As if a voter is actually taking the time to check polls and such, they are already a high-information voter and more likely to vote regardless of what the numbers or media says.

If you are correct, it would certainly cut both ways (although not as strongly) as a GOP could say, why bother voting if my candidate has the race already sewn up?

[ Parent ]
Snyder and Michigan
Snyder really isn't running as a "Republican", so much as a "competent business leader".  He is getting a fair amount of support from liberal Democrats.  His winning won't depress Democratic voters.  

That doesn't mean Democratic votes won't be down -- they probably will -- but it will be because of general hopelessness over the economy, rather than concern for the governor's race.

[ Parent ]
"Color Me Skeptical On Those Michigan House Races"
What a surprise.  Apparently, you're skeptical of any poll that shows a Democrat in the lead in a contested race.
[ Parent ]
I know
Ironic isn't? Mark to jump on board any Republican push poll that shows them tied with 20 year Democratic incumbents in 60% Obama districts, but when an independent poll shows a Democrat doing better than he expects, he becomes highly skeptical.

Wahlberg is just a nut. Around 48% of the district will not vote for him. He's as extreme a social conservative as they come, he was the original example of the American Taliban, and a great deal of the districts GOP establishment do not like him. He and Snyder are vastly different; Snyder is a pro-choice moderate who has cuddled up to unions as much as he can. If Wahlberg were the GOP Gubernatorial candidate, Bernero would be up by twenty points. Why don't people listen to me when I say that environment is important, but, damn it, you still have to have candidates in place who can TAKE advantage of it, and the Republicans, unlike Democrats in the past, don't have that, and while the generic ballot looks awful, (if sketchy from Gallup), polls do agree that voters hate Republicans MORE than Democrats, so that leaves the election effectively up in the air as it comes to who voters decide to hurt at the ballot booth and it certainly doesn't lend itself to a Republican landslide; you have to be an acceptable alternative if you want to make gains, and they are not.  

[ Parent ]
Except EVERY non-partisan tracker says you are wrong
Charlie Cook now has 198 house seats as either safe, likely or lean Republican.  With 47 house seats as toss up, with only 1 of them being a current Republican held seat (HI-1).  As Cook says:
[quote]
Even if Democrats were to defy the historical odds and win a bare majority of the 47 seats in the Toss Up column, they would fall several seats short of holding the House.
[/quote]

Stuart Rothenberg says:
[quote]
Likely Republican gain of 40-50 seats, with 60 seats possible. Republicans need to net 39 seats for a majority.
[/quote]

Larry J. Sabato is predicting a 47 seat gain by Republicans.

I understand that most on this board a liberals.  But, you have to understand that this is still a center right country.  And I know several people who have never in their life voted straight party tickets but always split their tickets that are going to vote straight party Republican this year, because they do not like the direction that the country is moving.  This includes people that DID vote for Obama in 2008.

[ Parent ]
We'll see who is rate
personally I think the Beltway has been creating this narrative since 2009, even when Democrats were a lot more popular than they are now.

And could you just abandon the bs about this being a center-right country? Have you looked at the polling numbers on Republican plans and ideas? They are awful. People are just angry, but by and large they support the Democratic agenda, particularly moderates. Of course Republicans have a lot of money and lot of talent in misrepresenting what that agenda is and scaring people. Still, as a whole this is not a center-right nation anymore.

[ Parent ]
*right!
And trust me, Sabato waited until October 31st to declare Democrats would win the house in 2006, but he's been feeding people the same prepackaged crap about a Republican wave since back when Obama's approval rating was 62%.

Cook even has jumped on it early this time, and on top of that is now using a macro-political model instead of a micro-one, which is going to miss all the major weaknesses of Republicans.

And Rothenburg is not a non-partisan pundit, even though he is better than Sabato.  

[ Parent ]
Even Democrats jumped on it early
The reason that everyone jumped on it early, is because anyone who didn't have their head stuck in the sand saw it coming from a mile away.

Do you really think that even the main reason that Scott Brown won Ted Kennedy's seat in the senate special election was because Martha Coakley ran a poor campaign?  That was Massachusetts, a dead Democratic monkey SHOULD have been a cake walk to win that seat.

A HUGE portion of the population is very unhappy with what the Obama administration has passed.  They are not happy with the continued government spending.

[ Parent ]
LOL
So Massachusetts voted the will of the center-right nation you speak of.  In that case I expect all incumbent Massachusetts congressmen/women to lose in November.  Is it fair to say that this is a reasonable assupmtion?  or is Massachusetts just a whole lot happier with the continued recession than they were when it began?

LOL

[ Parent ]
Yeah...because MA voted in a GOP Senator
Dems in California are doooooooooommmmmed. (Never mind that the dynamics from within the two "blue states" are very different, with Massachusetts largely stagnant and very ethnic-white population-wise, and California dynamic, diverse, and growing.)

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Well
I call bull and troll. Isn't it funny how Republicans for the most go around with UID's with independent in them?

Anyway, I can't argue the politics, I am already on probation. But, his position on MA-SEN is so wrong its almost funny. Coakley had a 55-30 lead on Brown post-primary, according to Rasmussen. Are we really supposed to believe that in a month's time voters suddenly hated all things government and Obama and gave Brown a victory? Brown will lose in 2012, no matter how much money he raises.  

[ Parent ]
Maybe it's just like
all those new "independents" while the "Republicans" group is shrinking...

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Were they unhappy with Bush's big government spending?


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Or Reagan's?


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Absolutely
n/m
[ Parent ]
So I wonder why
they'd vote back in the party that will just continue the big spending, refusing to slay their sacred cow of military spending. I'm leery of self-identified "born again deficit hawks" that had no problem rubber-stamping Bush's big spending.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
yup, thats exactly what most think
Any other Democrat wouldve beat Brown because any other Democrat wouldn't have taken a vacation after the primary.
[ Parent ]
Yes, definitely
Do you really think that even the main reason that Scott Brown won Ted Kennedy's seat in the senate special election was because Martha Coakley ran a poor campaign?

And also because Scott Brown ran a great campaign.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Nonsense on the center-right crap, and your follow-up is meaningless......
So we're in the worst recession in many voters' lifetimes and you say "you know people" who used to split tickets are voting straight R THIS year.

The same was true in REVERSE the past couple cycles.

A wave is just a wave, nothing else.  It's not indicative of the country's ideological lean.

We're a 50-50 country, not "center-right."  If America were "center-right," Republicans would win a lot more elections than they do.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
No, we don't have to understand
that this is a center-right country. Because that's plain bunk. It's no more center-right now than it was center-left in 2006 or 2008.

Plus, anecdotal evidence of what people we personally know are doing is the absolute worst indicator of how the vote will ultimately fall.

[ Parent ]
I don't know about right of center or whatever
but in the NJ and VA governor's race and the MA special Senate run, Democrats lost independents by 2-1 margins. That should be a warning sign to Democrats in these marginal districts that trouble was coming.  
[ Parent ]
Who are the Independents?
Since 2008 the Republican Party has shrunk by the same portion that the Independent vote has increased.  It would be presumptuous of me to just classify where their votes are going, but those former Republicans probably aren't flocking to Democrats come time for the election.
[ Parent ]
"this is still a center right country"
LOL!

That's why McCain got a Dukakis-like thumping from a "socialest!" "muslin!" from "Canya!"

[ Parent ]
Depends what you mean by center-right
I actually agree that the US is center-right, but what this usually implies is that this the country has a natural GOP lean.

That would be true if the GOP was a center-right party, but its not - at least not anymore. Its really just a right wing party with a few center-right members.

The Democrats are really a centrist party, with center-right,  center and acenter-left wings.


WA-07, 34 years old

[ Parent ]
Still
It's kind of a slow-moving tidal wave that will move the country to the left, as more and more young voters enter the political fray.  It's difficult to argue that the current under 30 generation is not more liberal than older voters.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
I agree with that point about young people
Political consensus could shift over time, agreed.

WA-07, 34 years old
[ Parent ]
The Same Was True About Baby Boomers....
...but they grew up conservative.  At least to an extent, I suspect the millennials will as well.  Many take the politics of their youth well into adulthood, but I still expect the usual trendlines will apply with today's young people becoming more Republican as they age.
[ Parent ]
That's an enormous fallacy
Baby Boomers were 50-50 Republican even during the youth protests of the 1950s. Plenty of people were out in streets, but just as many were like my grandparents, married at 19-22, working, raising a young family, and fairly conservative to begin with. There wasn't a shift where Baby Boomers went hard right from their original hard left leanings; they were always split down the middle and many as they got older got more conservative, particularly during the 1980s. The millennials are liberal on every single issue and they are a group that is about 75-25 Democratic. It's not comparable. Please tone your constant never ending stream of pessimism. It's getting annoying.  
[ Parent ]
You beat me to it, I was going to post a similar reply, but I will take issue that baby-boomers as a whole...
...EVER grew "more conservative."

You're absolutely right that the notion of baby boomers as rebellious left-wingers is incorrect.  It's not even a half-truth, it's a third-truth.  For every 21-year old Vietnam War protestor, there was a 21-year old white guy "protesting" by beating the shit out of an innocent black stranger in the South, and also a 21-year old guy or woman who was just living life without any political engagement, not even voting.

But I don't know of any evidence that the generation grew "more conservative" later.  To some extent I think the politically disengaged members of the generation joining the electorate when they became older, as happens with every generation, could have moved the generation as a whole, but that doesn't involve anyone changing their politics who was already engaged.  But more than that I think the "Reagan Revolution" represented a realignment of existing ideological camps, where conservatives finally realized they just fit better in the GOP.  The purging of liberals from the GOP came later and is being completed only now, by the force of the teabaggers.

More broadly across generations, the preponderance of studies conclude that people's politics DON'T change as they get older.  There's a window of time in young adulthood when an individual's politics are susceptible to change, but for the most part people stay in the same camp for a lifetime or most of their lifetime.

Myself I went from indy to GOP to Dem all in the course of 3 1/2 years, and from 21 onward have been solidly Dem.  I think more people are like me, sticking in the same camp, with switchers not many and those who do switch going either way, not preponderantly toward the right.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
You're implying that people magically become
conservative as they age, and that liberalism is just a temporary stage they flirt with. So I guess that means baby boomers have the same views on civil rights as their parents?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
FWIW
Nate Silver has just 170 Repub seats as safe (and we all know he hasn't been wearing Democratic brand rose-colored glasses this cycle).
[ Parent ]
haven't you heard?
silver sold out by no longer being a real blogger and is a beltway chump now perpetuating the "dems are doooooomed" mantra.  also, math sucks, you can't predict anything! leave us to our fantasies!  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
you are using "push poll" incorrectly
Pushing a narrative yes; pushing voters no.
[ Parent ]
We should make a list of our biggest pet peeves of SSP:
Mine-

1.  Calling a partisan BS poll a "push poll"
2.  Comparing any flailing candidate to Coakley
Wildcard:  Using the word "eek" when you mean "eke"....

[ Parent ]
I agree on the Coakly thing
There are NO Coakly candidates this cycle. NONE.  No one won their primary handily, thought they were going to win the general easily and took a god damn VACATION, leading the opponent to use some covert ops and close the gap near the end of the campaign and end up winning.

The only candidate who is even in that REALM of stupidity is MAYBE Paul LePage in Maine.  He had a commanding lead until the end of September with his various gaffs and media Blow up.

But even after that LePage is still ahead in the polls, even though its only by like 2 points, and this race hasn't been polled for almost a week.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Correction: Snyder not pro-choice
Snyder is not pro-choice; he just isn't dogmatic enough for Michigan Right To Life, because he does support stem cell research.

Snyder has also said that the State can't afford be distracted by social issues during the next few years, but Bernero (or surrogates) are trying to hit him on his pro-life opinions anyhow.

[ Parent ]
IL Sen
Is it just me or has PPP been the only legitimate pollster to still show Alexi trailing the last few weeks?
The only polls to show Giannoulias with a lead are internals
Real Clear Politics has the following polls in Illinois of late:

Rasmussen Reports (10/18) Kirk +4
PPP (10/14-10/16) Kirk +2
The Simon Poll/SIU (9-30-10/10) Tie
Suffolk University (9/30-10/3) Kirk +1

[ Parent ]
How to ask about a Write-in
What would we consider to be a well-worded question that would allow for a write-in response.  Haven't seen an acceptable version yet....
Difficult to test that properly
Since it's hard to simulate the real ballot booth experience AND get an accurate read on the support of a write-in candidate.  Probably the best way would be to simply ask "do you plan to vote for Democrat Scott McAdams, Republican Joe Miller, or write in someone else?"  And if they say "write in someone else," then ask whom.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
How about this?
Who will you vote for AK-Sen?

Miller (R)
McAdams (D)
Write-In

========================================

If Murkowski's message of getting people to write in is working, wouldn't the person ask then know to select "write-in" for Murkowski?

[ Parent ]
My proposed solution:
"Who would you vote for?"

(Go through ALL the candidates in ballot order. This is not necessarily it.)
Press 1 for Joe Miller, the Republican
Press 2 for Scott McAdams, the Democrat
Press 3 for Timothy Carter, the Independent
Press 4 for David Haase, the Libertarian
Press 5 for Ted Gianuoutsos, the Indepndent
Press 6 if you would like to write in a candidate

(If 6, then prompt who to write-in.)

[ Parent ]
That question presumes...
No field presence for Murkowski -- and I would be shocked if they don't have a significant ground game with reminders (bracelets, stickers, etc).  

I think this is a bridge too far.  

That said, I don't think we have enough data to draw a conclusion.

It would be an interesting academic exercise for some pollster to put a half dozen different formulations out simultaneously this weekend, and then see which one tracks best.  

Do this for a couple of bona fide write-ins in various offices around the country over the next few cycles and we might even develop an answer.

[ Parent ]
Another something to consider...
The actual write-in process differs greatly from state to state (even county to county).  I remember in NJ would have been a "type-in" rather than a write in, because the machines were electronic.  Some places with paper ballots still use a #2 pencil to "write it in".  Perhaps the most interesting is the "Sticker" campaign, which was new to me:

http://www.sec.state.ma.us/ele...

I didn't know you could actually HAND OUT stickers that could be brought into the voting booth and affixed to the ballot as your write-in.  Wow...for a small election, that might be more effective than actually appearing on the ballot!  Martha Coakley's Republican opponent this year for AG used the sticker campaign to get on the ballot in the primary.

[ Parent ]
type in
Type in was certainly the case back in 2006 when a valid vote was cast for 'DraculaCunt' Gibbs.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
McKenna concentrated stickers in the 10th districts
There was a competitive GOP House primary there, so there was high Republican turnout, and people were happy to put his sticker on the ballot. Otherwise, a write in campaign is kind of tough in MA, because the write-in line is really small and you have to use the clunky, thick-tipped felt pen that you use to fill in the oval. I wrote in McKenna in the primary and it was hard to fit his name in the space they give you.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
The question is supposed to imitate the ballot itself.
So your line about Murky's field presence is irrelevant.  Voters will need to use their memory to write her in.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
This isn't a role-playing game
The goal is to best predict the election outcome, not to mirror the ballot as closely as possible.
[ Parent ]
Okay, I phrased it poorly.
I meant that the poll should imitate voting conditions, so basically, if you want to write someone in, you have to choose the "other" option and volunteer a name.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Slipping Away From Alexi??
If there was one battleground Senate race that had the potential to break for the Democrat, it seemed to be Illinois, but the last two nonpartisan polls have indicated it's breaking the other way.  All hope is not lost, but yesterday's Hill poll showing Phil Hare down by seven was a very ominous sign of the tea leaves in Illinois.  Is it not a safe assumption that if Alexi is performing as badly in IL-17 as Hare is that he won't be winning the Senate race statewide?
No
It all depends on Chicago... and I haven't seen any polling to suggest "slipping away".
[ Parent ]
Kirk +2 in PPP?
I'm not liking that at all.  Considering they have Tom Corbett up by the same amount in the Pennsylvania Governor's race which everybody else shows as a GOP landslide, I felt a chill reading that one.  And it can't be just about Chicago.  Michael Dukakis won Chicago but still lost Illinois.  Rock Island County is Phil Hare's base in IL-17 and is the second most Democratic county in Illinois.  If Alexi loses there, I'm skeptical he'll win statewide.
[ Parent ]
The Green Candidate
likely won't perform that way, but also, the undecideds in this race are overwhelmingly Democrats and have been for months. Kirk is effectively at the base Republican vote in Illinois and the fact he can't surpass makes me feel quite comfortable. The undecideds will come home, and if there is one thing that the Illinois Democratic party can do its drive a massive turnout machine. IL-17 could help Gianoullias too, as Hare will have to run a campaign and local turnout operations.

Dukasis lost Chicago because he lost the suburbs by 65% or so. http://uselectionatlas.org/RES...

That's a 47% Democratic map. You're getting a tadbit annoying.  

[ Parent ]
Your Link Didn't Work....
Just sent me to Leip's main page.

Why is it you don't think the Chicago suburbs will go 65% for Kirk as they did for Bush-41?

[ Parent ]
No Republican has come close
to those kinds of numbers there in a while, and they've trended a lot more Democratic, especially counties like DuPage, McHenry, and Lake. McHenry threw out its long time Republican Congresscritter in 2004, and DuPage's nearly lost himself. Kirk will be lucky to narrowly win Lake, and mainly because it's his political base.  
[ Parent ]
A lot of that trend was Obama
Off the top of my head, Bush won all the collar counties in 2004 and hit 55% in a couple. The Chicago suburbs aren't the 60/40 bastions they were when Reagan and Bush 41 carried Illinois, but until Obama they still voted more Republican as a whole than say, the Philly or NYC suburbs.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Well, yes and no
I remember Nate Silver (or was it Sean Quinn?) took a look at Illinois before the 2008 election and pointed out that in the late 80s Lake County was voting about 20 points more Republican than the nation as a whole. In the 90s that number rapidly decreased and in 2004 Lake County finally voted more D than the nation as a whole (although Bush still narrowly won there). There is a real Democratic trend. Esp. in Lake County which is more Hispanic than you might think.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
simple amswer
We elected another Bush since then...results not good.
[ Parent ]
Dukakis?
Seriously?
[ Parent ]
lol


Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
Bill Foster is tied or leading in IL-14
There are only four more conservative districts in Illinois than IL-14.  If Republicans can't win convincingly in IL-14, what does that say about their statewide prospects?
[ Parent ]
it says
That voters vote for candidates over parties.  Quinn is losing because of himself, not because the Democratic brand is suffering overall in Illinois.  He could lose while the sitting Reps. squeak by.  Alexi and Kirk are both distasteful to voters.  Candidates matter.  Mass. voters elected Cellucci and Romney at the same time they swept the Congress.
[ Parent ]
I counted six

[ Parent ]
IL-14 is R+1
IL-15, IL-16, IL-18 and IL-19 are the only districts redder than R+1.

http://www.cookpolitical.com/s...

[ Parent ]
IL-08, IL-11, and IL-13 are R+1 as well
And those district swung a lot for Obama--you can probably add a point or two to those PVI's (similarly, the Arizona districts are more Democratic than their PVI because McCain had a home-state effect.)

Also, IL-06 is R+0, so it's in the ballpark with the rest.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Margin of Error
For the 85th time. All the IL-SEN polls, really since Spring, are identical. Not sort of, but precisely identical. The race hasn't budged; it's all noise. And the majority of undecideds are Dem leaning.
[ Parent ]
See, this is the one race where I actually think the Dem will over-perform big time
Right now, my voter model shows Giannoulias up by high single-digits. I have Kirk siphoning-off a double-digit # of Democrats and winning Independents, but I think the pollsters are just missing something. Democrats will compose of about HALF the electorate this year in Illinois (for my money, 49%, to be precise), meaning Kirk needs around 20% of Democrats and a 15-20% lead among Indies to prevail. I'm not saying it's impossible, but if the Democrats come home, Republicans are completely doomed in this state.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Hope you're right, and the PPP guys say the same. This is one race where you depart from...
your otherwise not-so-rosy realistic scenarios.  So I don't dismiss your optimism when you offer some!

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Hinchey Result Not Totally Impossible
I live in Hinchey's district-- Hinchey has had competitive challenges in the past, and certainly there is a possibility that a Republican could win this seat at some point.  This poll, however, is a Republican poll in a year when the polls may be wrong in general.

I think that lots of polls have a serious problem with systematic errors this year. Cell phones are part of the problem, but the biggest problem, I think, is misinterpretation of "voter enthusiasm" results to mean that a high number of people who identify as "Republican" will turn out in a year when nearly half of Tea Partiers falsely claim to be "Independent" on surveys.  This group of fake "Independents" could be as much as 7-10% of the electorate, and you should expect this to be subtracted from the "Republican" turnout. Yet many samples claim the highest percentage of "Republicans" of any election since the invention of modern polling after the 1936 Readers' Digest survey disaster, in which Alf Landon was predicted to win on the basis of a totally unrepresentative sample.

Hinchey's district
Includes Binghamton Univ still right?  I graduated in 1999 and it was part of his district I think but I can't really remember to well.  

If it does still include the school, there were a decent number of students who were either townies or lived at home and attended.  They'd be missed by pretty much every type of polling.  I'm guessing most of the downstate students vote absentee in their home district but this would be a good year for them to vote upstate.

[ Parent ]
It also includes
Ithaca, which is the site of Cornell and Ithaca College. Although, a lot of those probably are registered to vote at home if they are registered to vote.
[ Parent ]
Forgot Cornell
Cornell has a MUCH larger grad student and faculty population that landline polling might also miss.
[ Parent ]
I agree about the polling problem

but there does seem to be some political ferment going on in New York Appalachia.

I don't think it means defeat of Democratic incumbents.  It seems more a moment of realization and discomfort by centrists indoctrinated into a "balance" theory that the Republican option is slipping below some threshold with voters.

Republicans will get NY-29 back this election but the Red/Blue division line in northern Appalachia just isn't at the Hudson anymore.  Democrats have advanced it across the Adirondacks and Catskills into Finger Lakes country and the northeastern and northwestern corners of Pennsylvania.  Hinchey's district is inadvertently in the battle zone.

[ Parent ]
NC-11: Shuler 54, Miller 39 (GQR)
DCCC poll.  Poll dates 10/17-10/19.  401 LV, MoE 4.9.

Weird that this remains one of the safest competitive races for Dems.

Especially Since He Voted For Cap And Trade......
I thought he was finished when he voted for that.
[ Parent ]
Weird
The DCCC just threw some money at this district as well..

[ Parent ]
I am not going to count chickens yet
but personal popularity and celebrity still matter and I think Shuler is still personally popular as the native son that made good.  
[ Parent ]
Noem won't vote for Boehner?
http://www.rollcall.com/news/5...

Someone tell me if there's some sort of political gain by this, because I don't see it at all.

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

Boehner is quite unpopular everywhere
Approvals are something like 20/50, iirc, but the election isn't really a referendum on him, unfortunately.
[ Parent ]
I've never seen numbers like that for Boehner. Rather what I've seen are...
...most people say "no opinion" and "never heard of him."

Boehner is a plain vanilla garden variety establishment Republican, more the leader on the inside than Hastert, but publicly with no bigger a profile than ol' Denny had.

Boehner just never throws any bombs.  Which is exactly what the GOP needs from him, to NOT make noise.  When a House party leader becomes conspicuous to average voters, it's usually for the wrong reasons.

I'll be surprised if any GOP House frosh refuse to vote for Boehner for Speaker.  Maybe the sporadic teabagger here and there, but really I imagine there will be backroom education conducted in advanc on the consequeneces of bucking leadership on a vote like that one.  The House GOP does not tolerate dissent except for a handful of members on a given vote dissenting out of conscience.  But a leadership vote is going to be whipped hard.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
You're right
I think that Cantor or McCarthy would be very competitive if either wanted to run for Speaker or Minority Leader (depending on election results) against Boehner. Boehner is a tie to the old Republican majorities that got tossed out and has little in common with many of the young, Tea Party-influenced Republicans who will be freshmen in the next Congress. Cantor and McCarthy have more in common with these folks.

Also, Noem just wants to meet Boehner and find out who, if anyone, is running against him before making up her mind. Richard Hanna in NY-24 said the same thing a while back, although it's looking less likely that he'll be voting for anyone come Jan. 3rd.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
why is why the Pelosi talk is just dumb
Nobody cares who she is, she sucks because is a member of Congress, period.
[ Parent ]
Clark County NV early vote numbers Day 5
Dem early vote margin in the county is now D+6,233.  NV-03 is now D+1,393.  Things are still looking pretty good to me.
Skelton/Hartzler
the firm involved has been accused of pushpolling in the past, and Skelton is beating Hartzler on favorability numbers by at least 15 points in their survey.. so one could suspect that they asked the question, got favorable numbers, asked some stuff, and then asked again and picked the 2nd number.

On the air, the DCCC is hitting Hartzler on the military stuff, the NRCC is hitting Skelton on the usual BS... and aside from that, I'm not seeing a lot right now.

For someone who wrote about "Winning God's Way", Hartzler's campaign sure is based on a lot of lying and distortion.

Representative Gregg Harper (R-MS-03)
"We hunt liberal, tree-hugging Democrats, although it does seem like a waste of good ammunition."

Dick Gumshoe thinking, looking left Dick Gumshoe thinking, looking right

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

Travis County, TX sees spike in voter turnout
http://www.dailytexanonline.co...

home of Austin, UT, heavily Dem.  we have no excuse early voting here, which started Monday.

"This year's early voting turnout in Travis County during the first three days nearly doubled the turnout during the same time of the 2006 midterm elections, but the University early voting booths posted only a 4.5-percent increase over the 2006 election cycle, when Democrats took control of both the U.S. House and Senate."

the early vote at UT is up, but not up as much as some other parts of the county.

More numbers
http://www.kxan.com/dpp/news/p...

After 3 days, 6.1% turnout.  Not bad.

[ Parent ]
It would be intresting to know where the early voting is highest
I live near this area.  And while it is heavily democratic, there is also a big portion that is much more rural, and more republican.  What sways the distict to heavily democratic are UT and South and Downtown Austin, which are extremely liberal and have alot of people that moved from San Francisco.

Also, while South Austin and Downtown Austin are very liberal, North Austin is not near a liberal and is represented by Republican Michael McCaul.

[ Parent ]
Moved from San Francisco?
Did they bring their love beads, tie-dye shirts, and Nancy Pelosi pins?
[ Parent ]
Some yes
In downtown Austin especially, there certainly is alot of that.
[ Parent ]
Actually
The part of McCaul's district that reaches into N. Travis voted strongly Dem in 2008, McCaul only got 34% of the vote there.

The weird finger of Lamar Smith's district that reaches into N.W. Travis, however, is fairly Republican.

[ Parent ]
Also
after two days of voting, Travis County was slightly outpacing its conservative neighbor county to north, Williamson.
[ Parent ]
that is intresting to hear
nm
[ Parent ]
Yep.
It's mostly the uber-Republican precincts in northwest Harris County that keep the 10th Republican.  What will be interesting to see in 2012 is how they deal with McCaul's district; the Harris County portion arguably should be its own district in two years, but that would probably put McCaul or Carter out of a seat because there's only so much GOP territory in the Austin area.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
I don't see Carter being out of a job
While Austin as a whole is very liberal, Democrats are just trying to get anyone elected in Georgetown.

South Austin and Downtown Austin are uber liberal, and would no doubt vote for the liberal version or Sharron Angle and Rand Paul.  North Austin is not near a liberal of South Austin and Downtown Austin but still has some more liberal parts.  Round Rock and Pflugerville while far from super conservative are certainly more conservative that Austin is, and even the Democrats that win win by being conservative Democrats.  And Georgetown is very conservative, with Democrats just wanting to break into Georgetown this year.

No doubt however, that Michael McCaul would be in some real trouble if left with just the North Austin portion of his district.

[ Parent ]
Biggest mistake of the cycle for the DSCC
was funding OH-Sen but not NC-Sen.  I never thought I'd see polls showing Fisher down by 15 and Marshall down by 8, but that's what's happened.  Richard Burr is one lucky SOB.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
Harris up 11 over Kratovil in Monmouth/SUSA
When you adjust for SUSA weirdness
Harris +6 or so doesn't seem unreasonable.  It's a tough district.
[ Parent ]
Holden leads by 30 in PA-17
http://www.abc27.com/Global/st...

At one time, it was thought he might be vulnerable.

ND-AL
Looking ever more likely that there will be at least one more border CD represented by the GOP...

Berg    52(48)
Pomeroy 42(45)

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

Re:
Anyone keeping track on how many positive Republican polls in a row Scotty has put out the last two or three days?

Anyway, I've had this race as a loss for some time now.

[ Parent ]
I think it'll be close

Pomeroy has been in many tough elections before, he should be able to pull a rabbit out of his hat one last time.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male
[ Parent ]
And
Always suspiciously closely following a slew of Dem-decent polls.
[ Parent ]
CA-Prop 19
From SUSA.

48% Yes
44% No
8% Not certain

Social desirability bias?
PPIC 10/10-17 (9/19-26 in parentheses)

Yes 44 (52)
No 49 (41)
Und 7 (7)

Given that SUSA is a robopollster that doesn't call cellphones, and PPIC is a live interviewer that does, I wonder if this is one of those questions some people feel more comfortable answering honestly to a machine than to a person...

[ Parent ]
PPP: Brady 42 Quinn 41
Alright!
that one final year I have to spend in IL for school might not suck after all :)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Suffolk: Blumenthal by 18, Malloy by 11
Excellent, thanks!
Seems they read names multiple times if the candidate will appear on more than one ballot line, so I'm not sure if that's copacetic. But the Dems are also polling strong on the more traditional head-to-head numbers.

Due to McMahon's nasty campaign, Blumenthal has probably become inoculated against further attacks.

When asked who has run a more negative campaign in the U.S. Senate race, 62 percent of likely voters said Republican Linda McMahon, while only 20 percent said Democrat Richard Blumenthal, and 18 percent were undecided.

Both Republicans are upside-down on favorables, though McMahon is truly in danger-zone territory.

Republican for Governor Tom Foley scores a 32 percent favorable - 36 percent unfavorable rating, while his Democratic opponent Dan Molloy scores a 41 percent favorable - 29 percent unfavorable rating. In the U.S. Senate race, frontrunner Democrat Richard Blumenthal scores a 56 percent favorable - 34 percent unfavorable rating, while his opponent Republican Linda McMahon scores a 33 percent favorable - 52 percent unfavorable rating.

To win, she's got to get people who actively dislike her to vote for her. That's a tough sell, I'd imagine.

[ Parent ]
But, But,
Didn't you hear? Charlie Cook and Sabato and CQPolitics all tell us that CT-Sen is a toss up! These polls shouldn't be showing a consistent 9-18 point lead for Blumenthal, the nonpartisan pundits that indyvoter is so into tell us otherwise.  
[ Parent ]
Cook moved it to lean Dem today
I basically agree with you though.

WA-07, 34 years old
[ Parent ]
Also good news for all the lower profile statewide races...
CT has more statewide open seats this year than in a long, long time - mostly due to Rell's retirement and AG Blumenthal's entry into the Senate race. That started a scramble among other office holders to vacate seats and pursue new opportunities.

Incidentally, Kevin Lembo is former head of the Office of the Healthcare Advocate, and first openly gay candidate for statewide office.

SoS: 32D/22R
Treasurer: 43D/20R (Dem is current officeholder)
Comptroller: 33D/16R
AG: 40D/28R

In the races for the Constitutional offices of secretary of state, treasurer, comptroller, and attorney general, all Democrats are listed separately as Democratic nominees and Working Families Party nominees, and lead their respective Republican opponents. For secretary of state Democrat Denise Merrill (32 percent) leads Republican Jerry Farrell (22 percent), Republican Jeff Wright (20 percent) trails Democrat Denise Nappier (43 percent) for treasurer, and Republican Jack Orchulli (16 percent) trails Democrat Kevin Lembo (33 percent) in the race for comptroller. Finally, in the attorney general race, Democrat George Jepsen (40 percent) leads Republican Martha Dean (28 percent). All of the above statewide offices carry high undecided counts signaling fluidity in all races.

[ Parent ]
NV-Sen: New Angle attack ad hits Reid on his wealth.
That's right, instead of attacking him on the economy, she's implying he got his wealth illegally.  Note: Reid is the 32nd wealthiest Senator.
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Dumb
I think it's a really dumb tack to take.  There's never been any serious question that Harry Reid got his money improperly and he's not Uncle Scrooge, literally swimming in money in a vault somewhere.  I doubt it was her idea; but whatever campaign consultant came up with it, I would never hire.  Of course, at the end of the day, she's the fool who agreed to go ahead with it.  Maybe they tested it with a focus group and it did well, I don't know, but NV is going to be digging itself out from under all this mud the day after the election.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Where's the proof that he
got his wealth improperly? I've never heard that, but then again, I am not that knowledgeable about Reid. Still, some links would be nice.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Reid made his money before he entered the Senate, maybe before the House......
Reid made a lot of money before his political career was in full swing.  Anything about how he made his money is truly dated material, going back to the 70s and early 80s.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
I'm sure it was her idea. She is nasty and was quite
smug when making up lies about Reid's money during the debate. A campaign strategist would be smart enough to know that this kind of personal attack would end up hurting Angle by making Reid look sympathetic. Dumb move on Angle's part.
[ Parent ]
FL-25: Formal complaint filed against Rivera's candidacy
on the grounds that he may have lied on his disclosure forms, a violation that can result in expulsion from the ballot if the court rules against Rivera.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Rivera was a real catch for the GOP huh

[ Parent ]
I blame
I blame Mario for switching seats, a sissy move if ever there was one.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
You think he did it for redistricting reasons?


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I think
I think he took the chance to jump into a safe seat rather than stick with the area he had been representing.  I think it's a total sissy move - if you have been doing a good job representing your people, you should stick with them and fight for your seat.  He would have been safe this year at a minimum, though he might have faces tougher fights in the future.
I don't respect it, I think that politicians who go for the hard fights are worth a lot more than those who take the easy path.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
More info on this:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
FL Early Voting
The Buzz reports on the early numbers of voting in FL.  The numbers themselves are being highlighted by the GOP, but they are real numbers.  I'm a bit surprised by them, frankly, and if this trend holds, I would expect the GOP to come out of Florida with +4 seats in the house, which is 10% of what they need overall.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
Florida House races.
I only count four Dem House seats in Florida (FL-2, FL-8, FL-22, FL-24) as being up for grabs for the Republicans, and three of those have long since been written on by Dems and they aren't being relied upon anymore.

So, relatively speaking, not THAT bad of news for Dems.

[ Parent ]
FL-22 being safest for Dems of the 4.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Yes, but
If thinks were to break for the Dems in a good way in FL, they could come out only down two - holding 22 and picking up 25.  These early numbers tell me that it's a lot more likely that the GOP sweeps.  West is sitting on a huge cash advantage and he's finally unleashing it full force down here.  The big remaining question is the Gov race and high GOP turnout means that Scott will probably squeak through.

BTW, Crist seems to be out of money; I don't know if that will have any affect or not.  Probably not, but I'm curious to see if Rubio can get to 50% on election day.  Right now, I think that's an even money bet.  I expect them to call his race the moment polls close in the panhandle.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

[ Parent ]
Allen West
The reputation about him (besides the motorcycle gang thing) is that a lot of his funds come from individuals outside of the FL-22 district. So I'm not sure how reliable his fundraising is in determining his level of support.

Furthermore, I'm not sure how reliable cash on hand this late in an election cycle is for any candidate since the possibilities for using that cash are now limited. Surely, ad time has already been bought up all the way up til Election Day by now.  

[ Parent ]
Any chance of a wild card seat in FL?
FL-12 is an obvious Dem wildcard target, but could any Dem seats fall outside of the 4 you mentioned?

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Let's see.
FL-03 - Brown - no way.
FL-11 - Castor - probably the best chance, but not very good.  D+11.  Prendergast has raised $350K+ though.
FL-17 - OPEN (Meek) - not on your life.
FL-19 - Deutsch - no.
FL-20 - Wasserman-Schultz - no.
FL-23 - Hastings - not on your life.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Here's the link.
http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/...

It makes apples to oranges comparisons to 2008, which gives it no credibility.  Would love to see a legitimate analysis.  It's probably a good turnout for the GOP (no shit), but the 2008 comparisons mean nothing.  Shame on the St. Pete Times for stenographing this bullshit.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Thanks
Sorry, I forgot to put in the link.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Read like a Republican press release
He may be right in the end, but not exactly a sterling example of good journalism.
[ Parent ]
Failure to correctly interpret statistics is a big and consistent problem I see in political journalism, and...
...yes it's important to see apples-to-apples comparisons of things.  In this case, it means comparing 2010 to 2006, and ignore 2008.  And even then one must compare the RIGHT THINGS, such as the first few days of early voting then versus the first few days now, and take into account any changes that might make comparisons difficult such as law changes that make voting easier or harder.

Jon Ralston does a great job of this re Nevada.

And Reid Wilson had a good Hotline On Call piece this morning linked by someone on SSP that looked at early voting nationally and found that Democrats are holding the line so far, no big dropoff from 2006, and no underperformance of what Democratic strategists think we need to compete like we hope to.

I have no idea what's up in Florida, but I'd want to know how things now compare to 2006

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Republicans lead 50-40 in Pew generic
http://people-press.org/report...

50-43 in last poll.  Independents going Republican by 19.  Dems lead in NE by 1 and trail in west by 2, while losing midwest by 16 and south by 18.

If these are the actual numbers, hard to escape conclusion that Democrats will lose the house, and more than 50 seats.

Dana Houle is taking that survey apart on twitter.
The regional breakdown of the poll has 37% of the respondents from the South and only 14% from the Northeast. It is also massively under-counting young voters.  
[ Parent ]
Survey
Pew has a pretty solid reputation.  But I'll check it out.  Thanks.
[ Parent ]
I was surprised as well since Pew does have
such a good reputation.
[ Parent ]
Gerlach up 54-44 in Monmouth/SUSA
That's about as good as Trivedi can probably do against that opponent in this environment......
Honestly, that's damn good for Manan, given the opponent and the year.  That's no consolation, it's all about winning and losing.  But Trivedi is setting himself up nicely for a future run if he finishes in the mid-40s in this round.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Internals
http://www.politico.com/news/s...

Trivedi doing best in Montgomery County.  Which could bode well for Patrick Murphy, even though only a small piece of that county is in his district.

Yes, this is better than I expected.  Of course, the story said Gerlach was cruising to re-election.  If this were a Democratic incumbent with a 10 point lead, you can be sure they wouldn't have used that word.

[ Parent ]
the part of PA-8 in MontCo
Is only about 6000-7000 votes worth, out of about 250k up for grabs.  It's just a sliver (my significant other lived in that sliver) and most people don't even know they are in PA-8.  Murphy probably does need to win it, since in '06 he lost Bucks (which is 95% of the district) narrowly and made up the votes in Phila and MontCo.  If Fitzpatrick gets any significant margin in Bucks, Murphy will be screwed even if he gets 80-90% of the votes in Phila and MontCo.
[ Parent ]
WI-Sen: New ad from Russ touts his history in helping veterans.

It's also important since Ron Johnson was caught at a loss when asked what the government should do for impoverished veterans.
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

Great ad n/t

[ Parent ]
SSP Daily Digest: 10/21 (Morning Edition) | 214 comments

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