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Skyrockets in Flight

by: James L.

Wed Oct 06, 2010 at 7:59 PM EDT


Continuing with today's theme of throwing a random assortment of crap at you with little to no commentary...

FL-Sen, FL-Gov: Public Opinion Strategies for the Florida Chamber of Commerce (9/27-30, likely voters):

Alex Sink (D): 42
Rick Scott (R): 46

Kendrick Meek (D): 16
Charlie Crist (I): 33
Marco Rubio (R): 40
(MoE: ±3.5%)

Susquehanna (9/28-10/3, likely voters):

Alex Sink (D): 42
Rick Scott (R): 44
(MoE: ±3.1%)

UFMDC (9/23-30, likely voters):

Alex Sink (D): 46
Rick Scott (R): 52

Kendrick Meek (D): 26
Charlie Crist (I): 27
Marco Rubio (R): 46
(MoE: ±4.4%)

NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov: Public Policy Polling (Sen | Gov) (10/1-3, likely voters):

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 50
Joe DioGuardi (R): 40

Andrew Cuomo (D): 53
Carl Paladino (R): 38
(MoE: ±4%)

Siena (10/3-4, likely voters):

Andrew Cuomo (D): 56
Carl Paladino (R): 32
(MoE: ±3.9%)

PA-Sen, PA-Gov: Marist for McClatchy (9/26-28, likely voters):

Joe Sestak (D): 42
Pat Toomey (R): 51

Dan Onorato (D): 41
Tom Corbett (R): 53
(MoE: ±4.5%)

HI-Gov: Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos (10/2-3, likely voters):

Neil Abercrombie (D): 49
Duke Aiona (R): 47
(MoE: ±2.7%)

TX-Gov: Texas Lyceum (9/22-30, likely voters):

Bill White (D): 43
Rick Perry (R-inc): 48
Kathie Glass (L): 5
Deb Shafto (G): 1
(MoE: ±4.8%)

CT-05: Merriman River Group for the CT Capitol Report (10/3-5, likely voters):

Chris Murphy (D-inc): 44
Sam Caligiuri (R): 50
(MoE: ±4.4%)

Gotham Research Group for Chris Murphy (9/19-21, likely voters):

Chris Murphy (D-inc): 50
Sam Caligiuri (R): 37
(MoE: ±4.1%)

MI-07: Myers Research for Mark Schauer (10/3-4, likely voters, 9/21-22 in parens):

Mark Schauer (D-inc): 44 (45)
Tim Walberg (R): 40 (43)
(MoE: ±4.4%)

NC-08: SurveyUSA for Civitas (10/1-3, likely voters):

Larry Kissell (D-inc): 46
Harold Johnson (R): 45
(MoE: ±4.7%)

NJ-06: Monmouth (10/2-5, likely voters):

Frank Pallone (D-inc): 53
Anna Little (R): 41
(MoE: ±3.9%)
James L. :: Skyrockets in Flight
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Me thinks
that Kissell poll is good. I'm getting pretty concerned about Florida...

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

She is still in striking distance
Clearly he has moved ahead but he hasn't opened up much of a lead. Hopefully the DGA and the Sink campaign now go for the jugular and we see a repeat of what is happening to Whitman.

[ Parent ]
FL Sen.
the train left the station long ago..Crist needs to bow out but no way he will do that.

[ Parent ]
Who Needs To Bow Out?
If Crist bows out, doesn't Rubio win easily? But if Meek bows out, Crist would be competitive. And I'd take Crist over Rubio.

[ Parent ]
Agreed...
Meek wouldn't be able to win a two-way race. Crist has a shot.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, Rubio would destroy Meek
I still think Crist would actually prevail in a one-on-one, though. Narrowly - probably by about 4 - but I imagine 97%+ of the Meek supporters would bolt for Crist. In a Rubio vs. Meek showdown, you'll have most of Crist's Indie supporters bolt for Meek, ditto lots of conservaDems. Meek would consolidate liberals and moderate Dems and virtually no one else.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
*most of Crist's Indie supporters would bolt for Rubio, not Meek


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
I'm Concerned About Polls...
...that were in the field for 8 days.

WTF?


[ Parent ]
And a Huge, Demographically Complicated State Like TX...
...and you only have a sample of 416 LV's?  

Puuleeezzeee...


[ Parent ]
All polls
seem a bit weird(er) this year than most. I think the pollsters are having a really difficult time deciding what is a likely voter and how many people are going to show up. My feeling is that any House race where and "endangered" Dem. incumbent is withing 5 points should not flip. Again, Dems. just show up..vote early...vote often..oops.

[ Parent ]
House races
...and there are a lot of them polling within 5 pts!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[ Parent ]
THIS ^^^^^^
I couldn't agree more with you about the likely voter model. In the primaries, PPP was extremely accurate in terms of their likely voter models, but I think this year primaries are a completely different game than the general. I know the NY-23 was extremely hard to poll for the special for a lot of reasons, but PPP got it so wrong partially because it's really hard to know who's going to turn out. Indeed, I think a lot of people in NY-23 turned out because they say how extreme Hoffman was. In certain races, the Rand Pauls, Sharron Angles, and even the Roy Blunts will turn out a lot of Dems that aren't showing up in the current polls. I am pretty optimistic actually...

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

[ Parent ]
Agreed...
The biggest problem with many of these "likely voter screens" is that they don't really know if these forecasts are likely. They're not taking into consideration field operations, or even actual voter registration in many cases.

I know I've been talking extensively about how flawed much of the public polling here in Nevada has been, but I know we're not alone here. IMHO "the enthusiasm gap" has been talked to death and it's easier than thought for Dems to motivate the base to vote.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
FL Gov
this race is no different than way too many...Dems need to vote..at least in '06 #'s since there is no way they will vote in '08 #'s...all these polls are using low Dem samples because everyone things the Dems won't show up...prove them wrong and a lot of these races will have positive outcomes

[ Parent ]
I wouldn't be so confident about Kissell . . .
Those top line numbers are for registered voters.  Among likely voters Jordan leads Kissell 49-44. http://www.lincolntribune.com/...

If accurate, I think Kissell may be a goner come November.


[ Parent ]
Jordan??
I thought it was Harold Johnson...

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Your Right
Harold Johnson is the Republican nominee for North Carolina's 8th Congressional district.  Hal Jordan finished third in the Republican primary for the nomination.  When he lost, he promptly (like all but one of the primary also rans) endorsed Johnson over Tim D'Annunzio for the runoff.  D'Annunzio would be a sure loser in this politically quirky district because he is too polarizing for a R+2 PVI district.  It is a mostly Democratic district but a lot of its Dems are conservative.  Robin Hayes relied on them to win the district for a decade.  It had recently favored Republican presidential candidates (not sure how it voted presidentially in the 90's) until '08.  Harold Johnson probably has a slightly better than 50/50 chance of flipping it.  Larry Kissell has upset the left with his votes for Cap and Trade and the Healthcare bill but the right still can tag him with the charge of voting 95% of the time with Nancy Pelosi and the House Democratic leadership.    

[ Parent ]
Agreed
I was surprised with that Larry Kissell poll

[ Parent ]
TX GOV
I would love to believe that poll but it there a more pessimistic (for White) poll that is more recent?

There was one
The Texas Politicos have had their fun ripping it apart. The smarter folk of Texas politics are dismissing it (i.e. NOT Paul Burka, idiot). There was a part to it designed to desuade White voters from participating in the poll or something. So I was told by a friend in my MPA class who works for a GOP State Senator and is voting for White (student not the Senator).

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Really, this poll is believable
Perry's been stuck at around 46-48 percent since the beginning of time.  Very different dynamic than most of the races; Perry's been Governor for 10 years, more than enough time for most Texans to have made up their minds about him.  The fact that he's under 50 percent is a positive sign, and I kind of doubt he'll break 50 on Election Day; the key question, really, is how many of the anti-Perry voters will go for White and how many go for the libertarian.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
How many do you think break for Glass?
Assuming she gets to the same levels that Jeff Daiell got to isn't unimaginable (3.3%) but I don't know if she will get to that point much less more than that.  
Assume Shafto's support goes down to  nothing and White picks up a point there and that undecideds break his way... they are even.  
How much of Kathy's supporters goes to White on election day? Obviously they hate Rick, but is it enough to vote for Bill?

Conservative Democrat, Tx 27

[ Parent ]
SUSA's blacks voting Republican strikes again
Nearly 1 in 5 for Johnson.  Reality is half that.  

WI Sen and NV Sen
these 2 races seem to be the most puzzling. Why in hell aren't Feingold and Reid read doing better against such inept opponents? Are all these polls accurate or are they seriously under-polling Dems. in their samples?

[ Parent ]
The environment
And Johnson is far from inept.

[ Parent ]
Agreed on both points
and Feingold never wins in a landslide.

Reid is also very unpopular... Angle is a protest vote.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan


[ Parent ]
Also agreed with this
Feingold had a tough race in '98 but was never really challenged in '04.  Aside from that, Wisconsin is really more purple than blue -- it's really not on the level of Massachusetts or California or even Minnesota.

Also correct that a lot of the Angle voters are really voting for "not Harry Reid."  But I suspect that a whole lot of Nevadans will be voting for "none of these candidates."

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent


[ Parent ]
Shy tory effect?
Or in this case, shy dem effect?  It may be possible, considering the environment.

[ Parent ]
I remember them saying that about coakley
that dems were too embarrassed to say they were voting for her.  maybe they were right, but she still didn't win.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
As I said in the last thread...
Most of the public polls done here have been somewhat or very flawed. That's why what I see on the ground doesn't line up with what you may catch on Nate Silver's site or on cable news. And yes, they have been under-polling Dems and over-polling Indies. I'll say it before, and I'll keep saying it until y'all believe me, there's no way in hell more Indies vote in Nevada than Dems or Reeps!

As for Wisconsin, I have no clue. You'll have to ask one of the WI experts here.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
FL-GOV is trending really badly
Sink's already used much of the material available to attack Scott. Scott is now the clear favorite. It's not helping that Rubio is starting to run away with this either.  

I think Rubio will win, but with around 40%
I don't think he's going to set the race ablaze.

Southeast Florida Dems need to move heaven and earth to get good early voting numbers and turnout.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male


[ Parent ]
For what it's worth...
I know it's a bad indicator, but I drive around here and actually see a bunch of Linda McMahon and Chris Murphy yard signs on the same house.

His internal seems much more correct, and I doubt a GOPer from Waterbury (aka more corrupt than Bridgeport) could ever get 50% in this district, even if it is normally a swing.


25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)


well the 5th is the most conservative of all the CDs.
At least according to the prez numbers so if shes not doing well there I don't see how she could be in contention.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
The houses you're seeing are the GOP base who ALWAYS vote, and always vote Republican. They are...
...the counterparts to people like me.

I'm going to vote for Jeff Barnett for Congress on election, knowing that he'll lose probably 70-30.  But it doesn't matter, voting is important to me and I am there for my party no matter the odds.  That 30% who vote for Barnett still will add up to tens of thousands of people, and it would be hugely of embarrassing of me to be on SSP all the time and yet fail to do the one thing tens of thousands of loyal Democrats in my district who don't even follow politics like me will do:  vote.

Those people whose houses you passed by are our GOP counterparts and are not indicative of how well or poorly Chris Murphy is doing.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Err...
If the "Republican faithful" are putting up signs for Chris Murphy, isn't that a very good sign for him?

27, Democratic, IL-01

[ Parent ]
Oh, shit, I misread that completely! Thanks for catching my error, somehow I thought...
...Walter was saying he saw McMahon/GOP House candidate signs.

Of course McMahon/Murphy are ticket-splitters!

Eyes not working right tonight.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Pallone v. Little
Not very reassuring.  

According to my model, if Little were to somehow win this seat (she won't), the GOP would gain something like 105 seats.  Not going to happen.    


Pallone v. Little
Little is a fierce competitor and campaigner, I'm not all too surprised by the numbers.  The district did vote for Christie over Corzine last year, it is definitely democratically favored but Republicans can win especially in much of Monmouth County.  Come election day I'd expect Pallone to win by ~8-9% and something even closer than that wouldn't be all too surprising, but Pallone is such a mainstay and has been around forever I don't think Little can overcome that.

[ Parent ]
I am
 Very worried about Central New Jersey in the near future. The Monmouth County area seems to be prime teabagger country with economically conservative middle class voters. Many of the voters have been swinging back to the Republicans since 9/11. Come redistricting, Pallone needs to get his district OUT of Monmouth County AT ONCE.  Asbury Park is offset by the other towns along the It will be hard populationwise but maybe they could keep his district more oriented on Middlesex County or slip it Union County a bit. Shore which are mostly Republican. Monmouth County is an unsafe place for any Democrat because Christie just crushed Corzine there, 30 points or something.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
Pallone's base
Pallone's base is Monmouth County.  His Pallone yard signs with the big Ocean wave have been around for decades.  He lives in Long Branch and I doubt he wants to move to Plainfield or New Brunswick.  He already lost a chunk of the Monmouth portion to Chris Smith to make him more secure in 2001.  He doesn't want to head for safer waters;  he wants to launch his statewide campaign (most likely Lautenberg's seat whenever he can) from a Monmouth base.  He thinks if he can run and put up decent numbers at the shore, then the Republican won't be able to overcome that advantage in the rest of the state.  He's probably right.  Christie was the first Republican to win statewide WITHOUT Bergen County.  He won because of Monmouth and Ocean.  A strong Monmouth Democrat would make a Republican's mission near impossible.

[ Parent ]
That's true
 Pallone does have a Monmouth County base but he should still take out as many Republican areas as possible. Although it would be good to have a Democrat with a Monmouth base, Monmouth County is trending Republican and is definitely a big anti incumbent place.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
Voter breakdown
The breakdown of the party registration seems overzealous to me in the poll as well:

53% Democrat
23% Republican
22% Other

I know the self reported identification numbers shrinks the Democrats to 41% and raises independents to 37%, but I'm still not convinced.  Independent registration makes up just under 50% of the district with Democrats at just over 35% and Republicans in the mid-high teens.  I'd have to think the electorate in this type of year would garner an electorate in NJ-6 that is more favorable to Republicans and conservative independents than the poll may suggest, especially in Monmouth County which accounts for much of the district.

I'd also like to see a poll from NJ-12 where Rush Holt is, again a district that has a big chunk of Monmouth County.  I don't know if Scott Sipprelle has the type of magic that I think Anna Little may have, but the district is more Republican friendly and Christie again won by a very large margin there.  If I'd have to garner a guess I'd think it would show high single digit lead for Holt.


[ Parent ]
Obama won this district 60-38
The Monmouth portion of Pallone's district is the more Democratic part of the Monmouth (Neptune/Asbury Park).  Also, the Democrats had a 3-2 edge on the Freeholder board for a bit after 2008, so don't overestimate how Republican the whole county is.  There are also large Democratic areas in NJ-06 since '01 (Edison/New Brunswick-Piscataway (entire Rutgers U.)/Plainfield/most Dem part of Franklin (and Somerset County).  Trust me, they made this district with the idea to nominally keep the district Monmouth, but make it so Democratic that it would be very hard for a Republican.  Fiddling with it more would have to take Democratic areas from NJ-12 (Holt) or NJ-7 (Lance), which could make it bulletproof for Republicans.

[ Parent ]
One other thing re: '09
Christie did destroy in Mon/Ocean, but a lot of that was also because Corzine was wrecked in the media and at the polls for floating the idea of "monetizing" the toll roads.  It also cost him in Middlesex.  With the Parkway running straight through the Shore, one thing that gets the residents going is telling them you are going to raise the tolls from $1 every 30 miles to 2...3...4...and $5 per toll.  Christie would have won the shore anyway, but astute observers have pointed out how bad the plan really was for Corzine.  It's when his popularity really tanked and when people started abandoning him.  He had very few defenders on that plan.

[ Parent ]
Monmouth co.
Speaking of Monmouth county, Holt in NJ 12 is a race I would like to see polled.  also in the Tristate area, NY-1. CT-4 will be out tomorrow.

Those races as well as places like il-14, ca-11, va11, ma10, ca47, seem more relevant to guaging the size of the wave/ majority control then trying to read the tea leaves on what nye/markey/perriello being down 4 or 8 means.

The ct 5 poll and il14 GOP internal (foster down 6 and in the 30s) are ominous signs for the dems.      


[ Parent ]
For comparison
Christie won NJ-6 by about 2 points and won NJ-12 by about 6-7 points.

[ Parent ]
Holt
Ok. I didn't know the numbers but just sensed his district could be more competitive than pallone's. I think he was actually one of the first dems on the air (post-Christie win) and I was surprised since he didn't seem to me to be even remotely vulnerable at the time.  Guess, he was just smarter.

NJ has seemed like a state the GOP should focus on despite it's tendency to come up just short. After all some once-red states the dems  gained ground in were the same way.  Change doesn't happen overnight.  


[ Parent ]
Pallone Poll revisited and Al Gore for Holt
Art Gallagher at MoreMonmouthMusings (a conservative blog) did raise some valid points on the Monmouth U poll, and apparently a revised analysis of the poll by Executive Director Patrick Murray gives Pallone a 51-42 edge, 4 points closer than the original.  I'm not sure why he would rerun the poll using the other set of numbers unless there was some validity to them.  

http://www.moremonmouthmusings...

In other news, Al Gore is coming to Rumson, NJ for a fundraiser for Rush Holt on October 17th.  


[ Parent ]
Not really
Murray said,"your assumptions are as good as mine, and this is a very volatile electorate."

[ Parent ]
True
I'm aware, but it still doesn't make sense to me why he would even bother to spend the time to run it again.  I guess Murray is just furthering emphasizing the point that it is tough to predict just kind of electorate will turn up at the polls.

[ Parent ]
Monmouth County
It was ground zero for the 1990 tax revolt.  So this is nothing new.

Problem for Pallone is that he's the only representative in N.J. from either Monmouth and Ocean county.  Normally his district would shrink because of the population growth there.  But with NJ scheduled to lose a seat, they can move some chess pieces around to expand his district westward.  But not too many because then they'll be cutting into Holt's district.


[ Parent ]
Reminds me of 2006 in NH
A Little win might be similar (but still a bit more shocking) than the Rep. Shea-Porter win in '06.  A race that the base really liked the very polarizing candidate, but believed that it was just out of reach, and ended up being a surprise on Election night.

[ Parent ]
Not Very Similar
Jeb Bradley was a first-term incumbent who ran possibly the worst campaign in the country that didn't involve scandal or a devastating blunder. People didn't really know him, unlike Pallone, who's been in office for many years and has been popular. CSP also won in part because she only really talked about one issue--Iraq--which she used to tie Bradley to Bush, and because in the Hodes race, we spent about $500K on TV tying Charlie Bass to Bush on Iraq, and the DCCC spent about $1.1 million doing the same in the media market we shared with CSP. That was a common message that translated pretty easily in to her race. Also, that's a district where since 2000 the presidential candidates of the challenger's party have gone 3, 3 and +6. Compare that to Pallone, where the presidential candidates of the challenger's party have gone 26, 14 and -21.  

They don't compare.  


[ Parent ]
New Grayson ad
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

Slightly more moderate than the previous one. I think it wold go over much better.


I think it's way too late, he needed ALL his ads to be WELL-DONE ads to have any chance to hang on. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
between Grayson and Perriello
I wish Perriello would win. Calling your opponent Taliban Dan? stupid.  

[ Parent ]
Grayson
I am a bit of a softy and often feel for losing  politicians, their staffs, and commmited supporters even when I am not in tune with them politically. Take Feingold for instance. He /they probably didn't see it ending this way and can't believe the rug is getting ripped out from under him. Not a bad guy, his seat was up in the wrong year. OTOH, I hope Grayson gets his butt kicked. And his--at this point inexplicably and perhaps inexcusably--committed supporters like kos are devestated.

Probably not on people's radar screens, but the chamber of commerce actually has a pretty funny and effective anti-Grayson ad. The "pelosi lapdog" theme would be a bit of a tired cliche with others, but works here.

Somewhat ironically, before Grayson kicked his "re-electio campaign" into gear, he had a decent shot of pulling it out. He had too much money, Taliban Dan had too few dinars ( or whatever they use), and the media market too expensive compared to other lower-hanging targets.        


[ Parent ]
^^^^^^MODERATORS please take note of this comment......
Republican comments critical of Democrats/Democratic supporters are definitely not allowed here.  We're not interested in what you "hope."

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Grayson
Ok, my personal views aside-

Grayson had a plausible path to victory pre-ads. He may have been controversial, but with his warchest he could have rebranded a bit and introduced himself to the many apolitical people that don't really know or care about what Grayson said. For example, maybe: "sometimes I'm a bit outspoken, but I am frustrated with the toll the economy has taken on Florida families and washington's inability to respond." Instead, he has made himself dislikable personally. Perhaps, via his campaign, he now comes across as a mean-spirited bully with too much money to independent voters who weren't all that tuned in previously.  That is what distinguishes him from many other dems in tough races that, agree with them or not, one can sympahize with people who are fighting for what they believe (quite earnestly in some cases-perriello) and may see themselves rejected by voters which may seem like a public repudiation.

Final note, by grayson's committed supporters, I was not referring to people that merely want him to win regardless of his flaws so that democrats can hold the house and their policy gos are advanced. The advocacy for him on kos goes well beyond that and may raise questions about his attitudes toward truthfulness in media and politics.      


[ Parent ]
Wait...so are Democratic comments bashing Republican supporters allowed?
If so, seems like a double standard.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
it is
but this is like an Auburn board where Alabama fans are welcome to post as long as they don't post anything that carries even a whiff of "roll Tide".

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Mods have constantly
Repeated there is a double standard and it is perfectly acceptable to them. This is a Democratic leaning blog. Republicans are free to post and share their views as long as they follow the rules.

[ Parent ]
I agree with you
This is a Democratic leaning blog and we need to tread carefully. I totally understand why a double standard would exist. However, when we have Dems here hoping for Grayson to lose, I think a Republican saying they hope he loses can get by.  

[ Parent ]
User GOPVOTER, you presented user right_in_ny's comments in the best possible light
in a polite manner -- and that's a tribute to your political skills.

However, that user did say

OTOH, I hope Grayson gets his butt kicked. And his--at this point inexplicably and perhaps inexcusably--committed supporters like kos are devestated.

which is a pretty direct attempt to rile up Ds here. While it doesn't apply to me, Grayson is a hero to many in the Democratic blogsphere, here included. So when they hear about someone who hopes that a hero gets their "butt kicked," they feel it personally, as if it were applied directly to them.


[ Parent ]
i don't know
i remember dems saying they want grayson to lose. i sure wouldn't vote for him, and he's the only democrat in the nation i could say that about except maybe chet edwards after that ad lying about pelosi.  but even then, probably any dem but grayson.

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

[ Parent ]
I will sometimes politely warn someone they risk going afoul of moderation
but in general, I think we can let the moderators simply decide for themselves how to moderate.

Meanwhile, the rest of us can try to be a bit thick-skinned. It does not rile me that a Republican wants Grayson to get his butt kicked, and I'm sure Grayson would welcome that emotion from his ideological opponents.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
MI-07
Hey, new here.

MI-07 has been trending away from Walberg since the summer.  I'd like folks to remember that the incumbent defeated the guy currently running against him by something like 3 points during the Obama wave of 2008.

That this has essentially been a tie for a month or more probably bodes more favorably for Schauer than it does Walberg, yes, even given the national environment.  At the end of the day, I predict Schauer pulls this out by 3 to 5 points.  

Though this is a district that leans conservative, that doesn't actually make it a Republican district.  And unlike maybe somewhere in the South, Walberg's Birther row is going to hurt him more than it's going to help him in this district.


OH-Gov: Strickland internals have him up 4
http://www.tedstrickland.com/c...

Hard to rationalize why Kasich would suddenly be upside-down in favorability, though. I still think this is Lean R, especially with the Senate race quickly veering into Safe R territory. (My own voter model finds Kasich up 4, which would normally constitute toss-up for me, but my gut tells me this ain't a dead heat.)

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


Not that hard to rationalize
Kasich is the original tea partier (his words).  That's not the kind of Republican that has historically won in Ohio.  Republicans need to be moderates to win statewide.  Portman has been a very good actor, in that regard, to make himself look "moderate".  Since he has been essentially unchallenged on that lie by Fisher, he is going to win handily.  Kasich is still trying to skate by without committing to anything.  He refuses to answer the question of, "What would you do?"  Voters may want change, but they are afraid of it as well, and Kasich is still rather scary to just trust outright.  Strickland is a decent guy.  He's not that polarizing.  Kasich has the air of danger around him, which is why he's not running away with this thing.

[ Parent ]
It's no "tea party" stuff, Kasich is an establishment GOPer. It's simply Strickland's attack ads......
TV ads work.  They just do.  Sometimes only a little, sometimes not enough, but most of the time they work at least a little and sometimes a lot.

Strickland started taking over the airwaves in this race only the past month or less.  Nonpartisan analysts are attributing his comeback to the ads.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
The question is whether Paladino's woes also help Gillibrand
This marks a 12-point bounce for Cuomo in just two weeks. There's really nothing to rationalize such a comparable bounce for Gillibrand, that is unless DioGuardi's hopes are largely dependent on Paladino's performance.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
I guess we'll know tomorrow


[ Parent ]
TX-Gov
Canvassing in Flower Mound (South Denton County) yielded a pretty good split of White-Perry voters


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