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NY-Sen-B: Did This Race Just Get a Lot Closer All of a Sudden? (Part 2)

by: DavidNYC

Fri Sep 24, 2010 at 11:34 AM EDT


Quinnipiac (9/16-20, likely voters, 8/23-29 in parens):

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 48 (43)
Joe DioGuardi (R): 42 (28)
Other: 2 (1)
Undecided: 9 (25)
(MoE: ±3.6%)

SurveyUSA:

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 45
Joe DioGuardi (R): 44
Other: 8
Undecided: 4
(MoE: ±4.2%)

Siena (PDF) (9/16-17 & 9/19-21, registered voters, 8/9-12 in parens):

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 57 (54)
Joe DioGuardi (R): 31 (29)
Undecided: 12 (17)
(MoE: ±3.5%)

You tell me.
DavidNYC :: NY-Sen-B: Did This Race Just Get a Lot Closer All of a Sudden? (Part 2)
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NY-Sen-B: Did This Race Just Get a Lot Closer All of a Sudden? (Part 2) | 38 comments
Gillibrand's
approvals have been in the toilet ever since she was appointed to HRC's senate seat + the pro GOP year + Carl Paladino bringing out the "I'm mad as hell and I'm not going to take it anymore" vote all factored in makes me believe this race could be competitive. DioGuardi could just be benefiting from a primary bounce but its believable he could make this a close race.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
I think New Yorkers want to vote a Republican...
To send a message if nothing else, but Schumer isn't going to lose and Paladino is nuts even if Cuomo is the ultimate insider in an outsider year, so Gillibrand could be used to send the message.  Not to mention that seat would be up in two years, so it could go back Dem then.  
[ Parent ]
What message?
I don't agree with you. I think New Yorkers are very angry at incumbents - that is, some of the incumbents in the State Senate, and that's about it, not counting our Governor, who isn't running.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Problem is all the incumbents are Democrats
NYers are VERY angry at incumbents now. But Democrats completely and unilateral control the state. The disaster of a NYS Senate is run by Democrats, one of the Democrats leaders in that state senate is their candidate for Attorney General, the NYS Comptroller was hand picked by Shelly Silver and Gillibrand was the hand picked choice of David Patterson.

Dont discount the stench of being chosen by David Patterson  as one of the factors hurting Gillibrand.

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[ Parent ]
The incumbents in the Senate are of both parties
and both parties have been about equally bad in terms of mismanagement, corruption, and bad behavior in general.

It is very plausible that Schneiderman will lose, due to his membership in the State Senate and involvement in a hit-and-run accident, and I am seriously considering voting for Donovan for just those reasons.

I very much doubt that having been selected by Paterson is a sufficient reason for New York to elect a loud extremist Republican to the U.S. Senate, and I also doubt how much people pay attention to Comptroller elections. I can't remember the name of the State Comptroller myself, off-hand. Who are the candidates?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
The Comptroller race is Tom DiNapoli (D-inc) vs. Harry Wilson (R)
Wilson has Mike Bloomberg's backing, so he might be a not-crazy Republican. The general sentiment seems to be DiNapoli will prevail, though.

Methinks the five statewide races, ranked by likelihood of switching to GOP...

1. Attorney General (toss-up)
2. Comptroller (Lean D)
3. NY-Sen B (Likely D)
4. Governor (Likely D)
5. NY-Sen A (Safe D)

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Ah yes, DiNapoli
Thanks. Has he done anything wrong, or is there any reason to believe he has not done his job well? To me, Comptroller is a job that requires competence and rectitude (by which I mean, no whiff of corruption). Is there any reason to have any suspicion that DiNapoli hasn't met those tests?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
DiNapoli's biggest (if only) problem is that he was appointed to this position
The general sentiment seems to be he's done a fine job, though. Bloomberg's endorsement of Wilson could pose some problems among Indies, but rank-and-file Dems appear to like DiNapoli, and they're often enough in statewide races. My hunch is DiNapoli wins by about 10.

(For the record, this is the one statewide race I'm completely undecided on.)

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
What was Bloomberg's take
on why Wilson is better? I don't really understand Bloomberg's politics, though. To my mind, he seems to support Republicans and Democrats somewhat randomly.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I don't think it's so much her approval ratings.
It's that she is STILL unknown.  She isn't someone you see on tv like Schumer or Cuomo.  I have yet to get a mailer from her.  I can't recall any advertisements.  Though perhaps I'm just watching the wrong tv channels at the wrong time.  The only time you get to see her in my neck of the woods in Staten Island is either if you're a VIP or a paid event.  No one from her campaign has contacted any Democratic clubs (even the Cuomo campaign has sent a representative to try to get people involved).  The only contact her campaign has made to me is a robocall about two weeks before the primary asking me to press the number 2 or something if I wanted to volunteer.

I bet you if you conducted a poll asking residents of New York State whether Kristen Gillibrand was a professional iceskater, a US Senator, a soap actress, or the former CEO of Bed, Bath, and Beyond the results would be highly depressing.

My impression of her campaign is that so far it's been one huge fundraising operation and she is banking on huge last minute media buys to put it away.

And with the New York GOP being as pathetic as it is I can understand the temptation to spend a few months coasting.  But in this political environment that can be dangerous.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
I think this is a case
of the GOPer getting a primary bounce + Quinnipiac getting a bad sample + SUSA sucks.  

Likely D at worst.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

I agree

just agree
[ Parent ]
Very accurate summary

[ Parent ]
And Rasmussen...
I know we don't include it in lists like this anymore, but it showed Gillibrand's lead cut from 20% pre-primary to 10% post-primary. In line with SUSA and Quinnipiac.

Looking forward to Marist's poll - it's Likely Voters and the Gov sample (released this morning) has Cuomo comfortably leading.

If SUSA has her ahead by one
then she's probably up by 5-10 points.
I think Gillibrand and Bennet...
Are the reasons why the Bush Tax Cut issue was punted in the Senate.

Also Gillibrand is the luckiest politician - she's appointed, and her first election, the special election, falls the same year as Schumer is up and Cuomo is running for Governor -  both will be spending silly money on GOTV.  And then when her senate class is up for re-election in 2012 it's a Presidential year.  Gillibrand will serve 10 years before having to run on her own.  

Your not giving her enough credit
She is an excellent campaigner. On par with Schumer. I also think she did a good job adjusting her positions for the whole of New York.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
she did a great job latching onto gay rights
And it helped that Harold Ford wanted to run against her as she was getting a lot of favorable press on lgbt blogs bc of the comparisons between her and Ford.
[ Parent ]
She has been a strong
force in the LGBT community.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
I don't it has tightened
It could be the methology of SUSA and Qunnipiac, Same goes with NY-Gov but exactly why with about 6 weeks away is Siena is still using registered voters and not likely voters? Didn't they get the memo thay by this point pollsters conduct polls using likely voters.
No hard and fast rule on that
pollsters used to wait until October to switch to LVs and frankly, it is not such a bad idea, given the whack results some LV models have produced over the years since they started using them around Labor Day.
[ Parent ]
it is not such a bad idea
Maybe in past cycles but don't you think with the large difference in the enthusiasm gap that's it's better for Siena to switch to a LV model to get a accurate view of what were looking at in a poll they conduct on a certain race?
[ Parent ]
3 different samples
The three polls you cite all sampled different populations.
- Quinnipiac sampled "likely voters"
- SurveyUSA sampled "NY Adults" (no screening for registration or likelihood to vote)
- Sienna sampled "registered voters"

I'm not sure you are seeing so much a closing of the gap, as a difference in who is being questioned.

What is does point out, apparently, is that supporters of Republicans are more likely to come out and vote this year than are Democratic supporters.

If Democrats want to win, they'll need to motivate registered voters to get to the poll.  They have the support of registered voters, but don't yet have their votes.  And it is the votes that count.

SurveyUSA *does* screen
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 New York adults 09/20/10 through 09/21/10. Of them, 867 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 572 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the November general election.

The results shown are n=572.

[ Parent ]
I know about sample size
but i'm pretty damned sure that DioGuardi can't get close to the percentage he got with Hispanics according to SurveyUSA
Don't know
I really do not know what to think here either.  Clearly the polling is all over the place in a fashion that surprises even this polling cynic.  

Gilibrand is clearly the weaker of the three (Cuomo, Schumer, and Gilibrand), but she is not that weak of a candidate.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

Gillibrand is good, considering . . .
It's a weakness that she was appointed and has never campaigned statewide before. Kos likes to say that primaries are always good and strengthen the winner. I think there are plenty of exceptions to that rule, but in this race it probably applies. Gillibrand remains an unknown to most voters, and her organization remains untested.

But otherwise, she looks like a good candidate with a good bio. Nice Catholic parochial school girl from upstate, professional career as a NYC lawyer, lived with her husband in the farthest suburbs/nearest exurbs of the mid-Hudson River Valley.

She has a good record from her short time in the House. With her purplish district a few of her votes were not progressive, and that tempted some wanna-be primary opponents. But for the general, that purplish tinge to her record is probably a good defense.

As an aside, she is a physically attractive woman. Why do only crazy Repubs like Palin and O'Donnell get press time for a 'hotness' factor?

She speaks well on TV, with appropriate sound bites, and appears to have good skills as a personal campaigner.

And to the extent that she is unknown, the Repub is even more of an unknown. Until reading this blog I didn't know that he was pro-life. I'm much more motivated to support the pro-choice nice Catholic girl. Women voters may also want to note that, without Gillibrand, we will have an all-male slate in NY statewide offices whichever party wins the other races.

-----------------

Not so sure how strong Cuomo is. Eliot Spitzer, who knows a few things about NY politics, just skinned him on TV saying Cuomo has made a lot of enemies, most have been quiet because they feared him, but in a close race ... he has made many enemies.

[ Parent ]
Her
first ad only aired in the Buffalo, Syracuse, and Rochester markets.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
My sense is the Quinnipiac #s are probably most accurate
There's no way Gillibrand has anything near a 26-point advantage among LV, and I suspect DioGuardi is too unknown to be only a point behind. The Quinnipiac internals strike me as pretty accurate, with a believable 17% of Independents still undecided. My hunch is DioGuardi out-performs Paladino by 5 points, and I suspect we may see such results in the forthcoming Marist Senate poll (that is, they'd find Gillibrand with a 13-15% lead).

I know plenty of Democrats who are uncommitted to Gillibrand, but DioGuardi definitely has steep climb himself. His record in the House was very conservative, and he'd be the first pro-lifer to win statewide in over a decade.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Quinn has too many conservatives
in their sample for NY, and tea party support level that is nearly the same as the national. I know there are conservative parts of NY state but no way 18% of an electorate supports the Tea Party when it is about 20% nationally.

Siena and Marist (the latter still to release senate results) are most reliable on these races, Quinn will probably be better further out from the primary. Who knows what SUSA will do, but this last poll of theirs is definitely whack.

My guess is Marist will show Gillibrand leading by a margin similar to Rasmussen, maybe a little bigger.

[ Parent ]
There's actually a very sizable Tea Party faction upstate
Keep in mind, upwards of 95% of Buffalo Republicans backed Paladino. These, for the most part, are devoted Tea Party types, and it's upstate residents who make up over half of the NY Republican Party. So, let's say 75% of upstate Republicans support the Tea Party. Given Republicans make up about 30% of the voting electorate, you can calculate that about 10% of the overall voting electorate is composed of upstate, Tea Party-favorable Republicans. Add in any downstate Republicans who feel the same, ditto conservative Indies, and it's wholly conceivable that 18% of the overall voting electorate is favorable to the Tea Party.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Let's say instead that
18-20% of upstaters support the tea party. That will be far more in-line with polling numbers for tea party support amongst the electorate.

75% of upstate Republicans support the Republican candidate. The other 25% have been voting Democratic in recent cycles. Whether they do this year or not a big a question. But don't mistake voting Republican for supporting tea party even when they are effectively the same thing. Support for the tea party is quite low. They scare people. Even Republicans.

[ Parent ]
Yes this race did just get a lot closer
Mainly because these polls will show people that DioGuardi has the potential to be a viable candidate and could actually win this race.

This will help him raise cash which will make DioGuardi a much stronger candidate.

Also keep in mind there is no cat fud here splitting the vote on the right. Unlike the Gov race DioGuardi is the candidate of the GOP, Conservative and Taxpayer's Parties.

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on election day
not close
When it is all said and done
Gillibrand will defeat DioGuardi soundly. The difference is probably about 12-15 points right now and will probably widen a bit by election day.

The polling is nutty right now so it is hard to say for sure and Andrew Cuomo has the potential to screw things up if he doesn't get his act in gear but Kirsten Gillibrand is an excellent Senator. She is a hard campaigner. She knows exactly what she is doing. And this is still a very Democratic state.  

Stated succintly

[ Parent ]
I wouldn't underestimate Gillibrand
Senator Gillibrand is a strong candidate, and I feel confident that she will win this race come November.  I think she will win around the 10-15% margin.

As far as the polls go, I can tell you that I'm not a believer in SUSA these days.  While I'm not going to unequivocally dismiss them as a pollster, I haven't been impressed with this outfit this year.  I have no qualms with Siena, but this poll is for registered voters, and at this time of the game I don't believe this poll is reliable either.  The Q poll overall looks pretty good, and I really have no problems with it.  My feeling is that the Q poll might be the worst case scenario for Gillibrand at this time.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

Joe DioGuardi's campaign strategy
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/l...

Looks like he's poised to attack Gillibrand on two things in particular: her involvement with subprime mortgages as HUD counsel in the '90s, and her stint as law advisor to Philip Morris.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

NY-Sen-B: Did This Race Just Get a Lot Closer All of a Sudden? (Part 2) | 38 comments

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