PPP (pdf) (11/13-15, registered voters, 1/10-11 in parentheses):
Robin Carnahan (D): 43 (45)
Roy Blunt (R): 42 (44)
Undecided: 15 (9)
Robin Carnahan (D): 42
Chuck Purgason (R): 35
Undecided: 23
(MoE: ±3.6%)
Roy Blunt (R): 53
Chuck Purgason (R): 16
Undecided: 31
(MoE: ±5.5%)
In a sign of how consistently this race has polled, Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan has the same one-point lead over Republican Rep. Roy Blunt today that she did in January, according to PPP. Almost everyone else who has polled the race finds a similar narrow lead for Carnahan or a tie. Carnahan is the only figure polled with positive favorables at 40/36 -- not Blunt, at 30/38, not Chuck Purgason at 7/14, and not Barack Obama, at 43/52. Given Obama's negative in Missouri, it's impressive that Carnahan is doing as well as she is, but that's got to be a combination of her respected family name and Blunt's unlikeability.
The most interesting change to this story is the addition of state Sen. Chuck Purgason, who's flying the anti-establishment flag for the hard right. PPP had leaked that Purgason was polling in the "double digits" against the insidery Blunt, setting off all sorts of breathless speculation -- however, while 16% does certainly qualify as double digits, that really doesn't put him close to Blunt (although, given the current depths of feeling for many right-wingers, his numbers seem likely to go up as he gets better known). Sarah Steelman, who already has a statewide profile and who'd been anticipating a run earlier in the year, may now be kicking herself for not staying in the race. (She landed some good anti-establishment blows on Blunt, calling him a "white guy in a suit," but then dropped out prior to the summer's teabagger ascendancy.)
RaceTracker Wiki: MO-Sen |
