PPP (1/10-11, registered voters):
Robin Carnahan (D): 45
Roy Blunt (R): 44Robin Carnahan (D): 47
Jim Talent (R): 43Robin Carnahan (D): 47
Sarah Steelman (R): 36
(MoE: ±3.3%)
As we suspected, Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan is more or less the front-runner for the open seat left behind by Kit Bond’s retirement. At the same time, it’s not currently a cakewalk for her, as Rep. Roy Blunt and ex-Sen. Jim Talent poll within close striking distance of her.
I’ll admit I’m surprised to see Blunt so close to Carnahan and in fact doing better than Talent, considering that Blunt, at least in his House leadership role, seemed like an unlikable, polarizing figure (and add to that the fact that Talent has run statewide a number of times, while Blunt may not be that well known outside MO-07). That’s just not my gut talking; PPP finds that Blunt is the only one of the four candidates with greater unfavorables than favorables (he’s at 40/43, while Carnahan is at 45/36 and Talent is at 45/39.
PPP has a good explanation, though. Their crosstabs suggest that Blunt has a large bipartisan core of support in his conservative southwestern House district, and some of that support includes a fair number of Democrats in his district who apparently would support Carnahan in a Carnahan/Talent matchup.
Not only because I think it would be rad if two female candidates from the two major parties go at it, but because Robin seems to have the best shot (based on this poll) against Sarah.
Polls at this point are mostly name recognition contests, which would explain why Steelman polls the lowest. While Blunt polls the highest, he probably has a pretty low ceiling. Carnahan has high name recognition from her political family.
And neither Carnahan or Blunt are viable candidates because they haven’t lost, or at least won, a Governor’s race. Talent and McCaskill both lost Governor’s races two years before being elected to the Senate, Mel Carnahan and Kit Bond both won and lost Governor’s races first, John Ashcroft (a favorite here a SSP ;), who preceded Carnahan/Talent, previously served as Governor. That leaves Bob Holden as the only viable Democratic candidate…
Toss-Up? or Leans Dem?