Robin will win

No campaign yet and I imagine it will be pretty easy to attack him while much more difficult for him to paint her negatively.

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 16:52:17 PM UTC

Rasmussen lies

just remember they had Specter beating Toomey by 11. Carnahan will crush Blunt like a bug.

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by: jmartin4s @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 16:55:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Carnahan wins, but it's hardly a runaway

Probably a 3-5% victory. Maybe a point or two higher or lower if Obama's incredibly popular/unpopular.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

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by: andyroo312 @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 17:19:44 PM UTC

Please, just stop posting Rasmussen polls,

They look like God Damn push polls...

I haven't even looked at this race very closely, but from what I can tell, Blunt is acting like a retard in congress, while Carnahan has been relatively silent with no gaffes yet.

Carnahan will easily win this one.  The fact that Rasmussen has this so close is a god damn embarrassment.


20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

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by: daman09 @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 17:30:29 PM UTC

Missouri is always close

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 17:36:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yup

It usually goes with the nation, too. The aberration of 2008 is an interesting one that I believe may have some larger significance (i.e. it can tell us about the nature of the current Democratic coalition).  

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by: andgarden @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 17:43:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Every poll has Blunt stagnet at 44%, with Carnahan's numbers only gettin higher

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U...

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

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by: daman09 @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 17:45:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I would actually kill this an awful result

if it weren't from Rasmussen or the like.

And let's be straight about it: Blunt wasn't calling Democrats monkeys. It was specifically a shockingly racist slur against the president.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 17:56:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dude

This is NOT a push poll.  Push polls are not polls at all but an under the radar way to spread rumour and innuendo.  A classic example is a "poll" shortly before an election that is very short, reaches thousands of voters, and asks something like: "Would you be more or less likely to vote for x if you knew he was a pedophile?".

Not every bad poll is a push poll.  There may be really valid reasons to distrust Rass or a particular sample that Rass gets but calling every poll that we think is wonky a push poll is just flat out incorrect.  Even a poorly worded or leading question doesn't make it a push poll, just a bad poll: there is a difference and it matters.

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by: Johnny C @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 18:14:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Maybe I was a little zealous to compair this to a push poll...

but it still is Republican cheer leading, which is ridiculous.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

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by: daman09 @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 20:13:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

while Missouri is one of those closely divided states

and probably has one of the largest far-right hardcore fundy conservative populations by percentage, (around 40% of the electorate never votes Democratic), it also has its liberal areas and swing areas.

Still I doubt Blunt is doing this well. Making racist slurs, attacking wildly popular medicare, and publically placing himself in the reality-denying birther camp make it incredulous to me that he somehow has a 57-33 approval. Moreso still that he was a high profile GOP leader in the House for many years and was publically involved in fighting the scandals and was allied to Tom DeLay. Party leaders don't carry that kind of popularity, especially not in a closely divided state like Missouri.

Whats more is his son Matt drug the family name through the mud in route to single-handedly helping Democrats prop themselves back up in an increasingly unfriendly state. What's more is that Carnahan geographically has an edge in many of the moderate to swingish to conservative St. Louis burbs and will likely do reasonably well even in Todd Akins St. Charles based district while Blunt comes from the most overwhelmingly and reliably Republican area of the state and possibly one of the most reliable such areas in the country, (I believe Democrats only win those areas when they are running unopposed and it wouldn't surprise me to see a popular statewide Democrat winning by 70% against some no name libretarian and still only win by low single digits in many of those counties). The real key for Carnahan will be to rack up a large overall lead in the St. Louis metro area including those Republican areas, do good along the river counties that have a slight dixiecrat swingishness to them, (and went for Nixon), while pulling strong margins in St. Joseph and Boone county. Its also very important that she hold margins down in Ike Skelton's district and perform well in rural central MO.

Still I see her doing it. She has completely outcampaigned him so far. I toss this Rasmussen poll out of the window right away based on Blunt's approvals. No way. Simply no way. If he had 100% approval among Republicans, (which he shouldn't, a lot of the rank and file is antagonistic against the leadership these days), and 100% among independents Democrats alone, perhaps even 80% of Democratic/liberal opposition, would make up more than 33%. Its impossible that a guy like Blunt is the most popular politician in state, from political studies to statistics its simply impossible.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 18:19:39 PM UTC

Forgot about a healthy

Kansas City Metro margin.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 18:21:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yup

Basically follow the McCaskill model from 2006. She learned from her narrow defeat to Blunt the younger in 2004 that carrying just the big cities wasn't quite enough and campaigned hard to cut the margins in rural areas. The Carnahan family are old hands at this. She'll be fine.

I still think MO and OH will go Democratic whatever the national environment. The Repubs are just lousy fits in each state. New Hampshire I'm slighly less sanguine about due to the number of indies up there but at worst it is a tossup. North Carolina and Kentucky depend on the environment. I think Melancon likely comes up just short whatever. Texas is likely at least a couple cycles too early.

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 18:26:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

My thoughts exactly

Melancon will always come up short but he will definitely force a lot of Republican resources to be used in LA while I doubt too much national Democratic resources will have to be wasted; we can take that race for granted, they can't, especially with Vitter so soft. North Carolina and Kentucky will probably stay Republican in an antagonistic environment and yeah, Texas is about maybe a decade to early before the major statewide breakthroughs start coming in.

Except I'm not worried about NH. Obama is still much more popular in New England that the rest of the country and they are being further alienated by the hardcore obstructive conservatisim. What's more is that Avoyette has already proven herself time and again to be an absolutely lousy candidate and public speaker.

McCaskill was inspiring somewhat, her energy at least. Taking a full month I believe it was to go around the state with her mother in an RV followed by her Campaign caravan and just spend it visiting every county in the state talking and giving town hall meetings and Q&As to hundreds of small towns really dampened Talent's margins and gave her a lot of respect from people not used to seeing anything outside of TV. Most of them appreciated the respect she gave them and it gave them good personal views towards her, even if they did not end up voting for her. Frankly the Carnahan name is almost gold to both rural farmers and blue collar white workers in the St. Louis burbs.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 18:40:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Don't get me wrong

I think NH is very winnable. Just that it will be harder to paint Ayotte negatively since she has no record.

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 18:44:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Melancon is making a kamikazee run

Maybe he sees this as his "last hurrah" in politics since his district will likely be cut out in 2011.  I dont see him getting within single digits of Vitter in a year where Democrats will likely have very little to run on and Republicans will likely be hammering away at jobs,  unemployment, and government spending.  I just see Melancon getting beaten like a baby seal in that race.  I actually bet that by the time Fall 2010 rolls around, both national parties will have pulled out of that race.  Just look at how poorly Obama did in the state: 39%.  And this was with record black turnout.  

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by: G.P.Cobb @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 06:20:28 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

McCain didn't screw hookers dressed as a baby

I don't think Melancon will win but he'll push Vitter and I expect a margin similar to Landrieu/Kennedy last year.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 12:48:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Then again

Obama did so much worse among white Louisiana voters (particularly in cajun country, which Melancon represents) than even a typical white national Democrat (Kerry), much less one of their own (Melancon).

I doubt Melancon can win either, but Obama's performance was probably worse than would be expected of a white Democrat

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

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by: DGM @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 16:43:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]