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NY-23: This Picture Just About Sums It Up

by: DavidNYC

Fri Oct 23, 2009 at 12:22 AM EDT


Rule #1 in political stagecraft: always, always secure your sightlines.

How did this happen? Dede Scozzafava and/or her staff had the genius idea to do an event challenging Doug Hoffman to a debate... right in front of his campaign headquarters. Now how could that possibly go wrong?

Let's take a quick look at some other North Country news, most of it, as always, bad for Dede:

• Not only has Sarah Palin endorsed Doug Hoffman, but mini-Palin Michele Bachmann has, too. Said Bachmann: "Hoffman is on the ascendancy, and we have to win this seat, and people need to get behind the winning candidate, and it looks like that's Hoffman." Not quite as full-throated as Palin's endorsement, but Bachmann looks to be the first sitting member of Congress to take the plunge.

• Like the New Jersey Restaurant Association's endorsement of Chris Christie, maybe this is some help Scozzafava would rather not have at this point: several labor and abortion rights groups have chipped in with a few donations. Scozzafava desperately needs to prove her conservative bona fides, and this will help about as much as having the likes of "moderate" Susan Collins campaign for her. Oh wait, she's doing that, too.

• So, those 48-hour reports I was talking about just below? Well, a lot of big names have shown up for Owens since Oct. 15th, like Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Nydia Velazquez and more. The only GOPer member of Congress who has given to Dede in that timeframe is Greg Walden (OR-02). Believe it or not, Walden just announced he's that he's also the first member of Congress to... contract swine flu. I'm not one for omens, but sheesh.

Some dude endorsed Bill Owens and sent an email to his list.

• You can see Doug Hoffman's latest ad attacking Scozzafava (by linking her with Owens) here. Reminds me of this ad from last cycle.

• For all the fire Scozzafava's been under, it's not exactly clear that Hoffman is any great shakes as a candidate. Check out this description of his meeting with the editorial board of the Watertown Daily Times:

The atmosphere was tense, at times.

Mr. Hoffman said at one point that if we were going to question him, that he needed to know in advance what we were going to ask him about.

That's not the way it works. Mr. Hoffman would likely find that out if he kept his commitment to the Clifton-Fine Development Corp.'s "meet-the-candidates" night tonight in Wanakena, instead of ditching them for an appearance on Glenn Beck's television show.

Ouch!

• Remember Scozzafava's claim from the other day that Weekly Standard reporter John McCormack "screamed" at her? Big surprise - it was bullshit.

• Speaking of conservative publications, a whole bunch of them (including the Weekly Standard and the Washington Times) all published editorials today calling on Scozzafava to drop out of the race. Newt Gingrich for once is making a little sense, defending his endorsement of Scozzafava by saying, "If you seek to be a perfect minority, you'll remain a minority." However, Newt being Newt, he's still wrong, because he apparently thinks he can push back against this madness. No chance.

• And finally, Chris Cillizza claims that "[s]ources on both sides of the partisan aisle suggest that internal polling shows Scozzafava in third place now." I don't know if that's true, but I can tell you that Daily Kos/R2K will have a new poll out tomorrow.

DavidNYC :: NY-23: This Picture Just About Sums It Up
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That Was a HoF Fuckup
That moment goes in to the annals of the Darwin Awards (Political Category).  NEVER do an event where you don't control the event.  NEVER EVER EVER.  

holy lousy backdrops, Batman!
I am trying to think of another example in the same league of incompetence for a politician's press conference.

[ Parent ]
McCain last year
The Supermarket, The Green Screen etc.

[ Parent ]
Mmm
Bottled hot water.  

[ Parent ]
And his convention speech...
Remember the backdrop of the high school that looked like the lawn of a stately manor? LMAO.

[ Parent ]
Indeed
I forgot that one. And he still thinks he lost because of Lehman Brothers!

[ Parent ]
That picture
is the perfect candidate for a FAIL blog.

And a little OT, I too have swine flu like Walden.

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)


Get well soon!
I've had some friends come down with swine flu.  Wasn't fun for them but they were fine in a little while.

Btw Walden's OR-2.


[ Parent ]
Thanks. eom


Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)

[ Parent ]
I wish you a speedy recovery!
n/t

[ Parent ]
Thanks. eom


Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)

[ Parent ]
...
Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)

[ Parent ]
Lol at the "Hoffman Stop Lying!" guy
I love the look of unbelievable frustration on his face.

Welcome to the modern Republican party, you idealistic volunteer you.


[ Parent ]
The whole setup was great theater
and yes the Hoffman: Stop Lying guy was phenomenal.

If you watch the video, Hoffman's supporters did a spectacular job for him.  They were polite - no heckling that I heard - and just held up their signs looking somewhat amused by the unique opportunity that they had been given by Ms. Scozzafava.


[ Parent ]
Again I ask...
Do we have any sign that Owens is capitalizing on all this? I'm starting to worry that Hoffman might win outright...

The polls
The 10/15 poll was an advance from 10/1 for Owens

We'll see with tomorrow's R2K poll whether that's continuing.


[ Parent ]
Sorta agree
Dede is toast, time to turn our fire on hoffman.  Considering the Palin endorsement, the ad writes itself.

[ Parent ]
My fear as well EOM
Any idea what the GOTV effort will be like for Owens?  Is there a D organization in place.  Remember there hasn't been a D congressman from this area since forever, literally.  

[ Parent ]
Fundraising, polls, DCCC support for GOTV
All suggest no need to worry.

[ Parent ]
Unreal
Honestly, the only way Owens loses this is if Democratic partisans in the district don't like him enough to show up and vote. In 2006, a generic dem got 58,000 votes to McHugh's roughly 100k. Of course, 2006 was a great year for NY Dems, and both Clinton and Spitzer easily won the district. But my guess is that Democrats have enough of a natural base there to beat a divided Republican field.

One other concern is that Scozzafava totally collapses and drops below, say 20% of the vote.  


This is a SPECIAL election...
58,000 don't mean shit.  Are those voters motivated to turn out for ONE election.  Maybe all this publicity will bring them out though.

If Scozzafava ain't collapsing in the polls, she sure as hell is in every other respect. Less than 20% is possible, IMO. How many of her supporters will go to Owens?


[ Parent ]
Less than 20% for the Republican candidate?
That would be astonishing, especially in a district that's been a bastion of the Republican Party since the 1850s!

[ Parent ]
how many turned out for the NY-20 special election?
The game has been changed. Special elections aren't low-turnout anymore.

[ Parent ]
about 161,000 total
but NY-20 has a history of high turnout in regular elections too, something like 235,000 turned out in the Gillibrand/Sweeney race in 2006 and something like 311,000 turned in 2008.  

[ Parent ]
Gillibrand
won the most votes out of any Democratic incumbent in NY in 2008, even more than the 90%+ club down in NYC (Serrano, Rangel, etc).

[ Parent ]
I look forward to New York being 27-2
If Owens gets over 50% of the vote then that's icing on the cake

Beat me to the punch
I see the good news in this to be the fact that, despite all indications otherwise, Hoffman has yet to actually overtake Scozzafava. Ergo, both candidates maintain their veneer of electoral strength, thereby ensuring that the Republican/right vote remains fractured and allowing Owens to still win by plurality. The only way I see us losing is if, at some point, they actually coalesce around a candidate (still more likely to be Hoffman at this point), and that clearly is still not happening.

[ Parent ]
Good morning, one and all
R2K:

Owens 35%
Scozzafava 30%
Hoffman 23%

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...


It's almost too consistent with the Siena 10/15 poll
Siena's 10/15 topline numbers:

Owens             33%
Scozzafava        29%
Hoffman           23%

Just woke up, need to have coffee, then digest internals.


[ Parent ]
DKos poll by party affiliation
Excluding undecided voters:

Owens 71.4% D, 19.8% R, 36.0% I
Hoffman 9.5% D, 29.7% R, 39.3% I
Scozza 19.0% D, 50.5% R, 24.7% I

Surprises for me are:

(1) Owens taking 20% of R's - more crossovers than Scozza.
(2) Hoffman only taking 30% of R's.  

These numbers suggest to me that Owens is a good candidate for this district, eating up some R's and doing well with I's.  If undecideds break just like decideds, it's Owens by 6.7%.  Pretty good margin in a three-way.  


[ Parent ]
Those numbers are consistent with Siena 10/15 internals
       Owens        Scozzafava       Hoffman

D       55                17                    10
R       19                40                    27
I       28                24                    31

I realize this is not apples to apples - but

Owens is gaining among Ds and Is - stable among Rs
Scozzafava is gaining only among Rs, stable among Ds and Is
Hoffman is gaining Is, stable among Ds and Rs


[ Parent ]
It supports what we have
Been seeing in national polls - Dems, the president included, have seen their numbers amongst indies drop precipitously because they are mostly former Repubs. Dem ID went up the last few years because indies became Democrats thanks to Bush and the Obama/Clinton race.

[ Parent ]
Re-doing Siena
to eliminate the undecideds yields:

Owens   67.1%D, 22.1%R, 33.7%I
Hoffman 12.2%D, 31.4%R, 37.3%I
Scozza  20.7%D, 46.5%R, 28.9%I

Really, really similar trends.  Seems to speak well of both polls.

Additionally, both polls seem to find more Dem undecideds than R.  Strange, as you would think many Repubs would be conflicted with the split right wing.


[ Parent ]
Yeah
Chairs knew what they were doing. After Murphy people should have had more trust in them.

[ Parent ]
Palin's endorsement will probably help Hoffman with Republicans
I'm usually skeptical about the power of endorsements but given Palin's popularity with (most of) the party I think it'll legitimize Hoffman with GOPers supporting Dede right now.  It'll probably also hurt him to a smaller degree, with independents.  But there will probably be a big chunk of GOPer (20-30%) who will vote party line no matter what.  

My prediction (rounded)
Owns 75% D, 20% R, 40% I
Hoffman 10% D, 53% R, 35% I
Scozza 15% D, 27% R, 25% I

Of course I doubt there will be exit polling, so we'll never know for sure, but that's how I feel right now.


[ Parent ]
Not enough to win
Tough to bridge twelve points in little more than a week. Particularly with a divisive endorsement. Looks like he is headed for a strong second though which IMO is the best possible result for Democrats.

[ Parent ]
That's how I feel too
If Dede got second to Owens (which I'm not predicting) I'm not convinced it would defang the teabaggers completely.  They may just switch to nominating Club For Growth approved candidates for the GOP.  Not as great as a conservative third party but still pretty good for Dems.

[ Parent ]
Did the math on your prediction
using DKos sample:

Owens 42.8
Hoffman 34.6
Scozza 22.6

What a great result that would be for D's.  Hoffman does well enough to inspire Teabaggers to keep trying to take over the party.  D wins convincingly.


[ Parent ]
A result like that would be pretty good
My best reasonable hope is Owens breaks 50% with Hoffman getting a strong second.  Would encourage conservative 3rd parties and dispell the narrative Owens only won because of a split field.  Though I very much doubt this will happen: I've made my prediction and I'm sticking with it.

[ Parent ]
How popular is Palin in that district?
My guess? As a traditional bastion of moderate Republicanism, not very. So I think her endorsement will have limited effect, mainly to energize the extremist right-wing base, which is too small to win an election.

[ Parent ]
Here's the problem...
Yes, Republicans in this district appear rather moderate, and that's probably why Scozzafava isn't tanking among them as some had expected. Where the real right-wing conservativism appears to lie (at least if you believe the polling) is among Independents. Hoffman's supporters aren't Rockefellar Republicans; they're populist, ultra-conservative types who are so anti-establishment that they're also non-affliated.

So, unless Hoffman's still working to establish name recognition, I suspect he'll have trouble cutting into Scozzafava's chunk of moderate/liberal Republicans or Scozzafava/Owens' support among Indies. All Palin does, I think, is more energize his base than win over new voters.

I feel like Scozzafava, Owens, and Hoffman probably have about 28/33/18 percent of the vote locked down respectively. So, that would mean about 20% of the electorate is still up for grabs. If they really are predominantly young and Democratic, this should be Owens' to lose. But, of course, a strong GOTV effort in a weakly-attended election could mean an upset by Hoffman, and as for Scozzafava, well, she'd probably win this thing by 15% if Hoffman weren't in here. So, I suppose a weak performance by Hoffman is all the better for Scozzafava. But, she needs some positive press ASAP.


[ Parent ]
39.3% of I's for Hoffman?
That seems weird.  I feel like it should be by the end more Republicans for Hoffman and more Independents for Scozzafava.

[ Parent ]
Not necessarily
The GOP up in the North Country, especially, are old Rockefeller Republican types--very moderate.  The teabaggers/birthers/crazy aren't nearly so welcome...I can see them being disengaged independents until they get the R they want.

[ Parent ]
Wait...that's it?
Scozzafava's not only in second, but still within striking distance of the win? Even after nothing but wall-to-wall abysmal coverage? No wonder Newt Gingrich is still on her side; she looks very much poised to still win over moderate and rank-and-file Republicans.  

According to the poll, the remaining undecided vote is not "moderate and rank-and-file Republicans"
It is "disproportionately Democratic and disproportionately young".

[ Parent ]
Hoffman ad
Doing as much to drive Dems to Owens than Owens is doing himself. The internals of the Research 2000 poll back that up.

A lot of the poll was done before 911-gate
I'm not sure if that moved many votes, but if it did than the poll probably overestimates Dede a bit.  

Doubt it.
If you allocate undecideds (which should mostly boost Owens) Dede should get a 1-3% boost, plus she's held strong at 30% consistently throughout polling.  

[ Parent ]
Yeah, she's clearly being Naderized
But that puts Owens in the catbird seat.

[ Parent ]
Press coverage For NY-23 election Junkies
The left hand pane in the article includes links to a number of campaign-related articles

http://www.watertowndailytimes...

The skeptical slant by their main reporter on the race, Jude Seymour, is rather amusing - and certainly wouldn't - ah - pass muster on FoxNews.

I think Watertown is the biggest "metro" area in the district (if 27k can be called metropolitan).



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