Google Ads


Site Stats

NY-23: Palin Endorses Conservative Party Candidate Hoffman

by: DavidNYC

Thu Oct 22, 2009 at 9:54 PM EDT


So much NY-23 news to discuss, but this one deserves a post of its own. Read it:

The people of the 23rd Congressional District of New York are ready to shake things up, and Doug Hoffman is coming on strong as Election Day approaches! He needs our help now.

The votes of every member of Congress affect every American, so it's important for all of us to pay attention to this important Congressional campaign in upstate New York. I am very pleased to announce my support for Doug Hoffman in his fight to be the next Representative from New York's 23rd Congressional district. It's my honor to endorse Doug and to do what I can to help him win, including having my political action committee, SarahPAC, donate to his campaign the maximum contribution allowed by law. ...

And best of all, Doug Hoffman has not been anointed by any political machine. ...

Political parties must stand for something. When Republicans were in the wilderness in the late 1970s, Ronald Reagan knew that the doctrine of "blurring the lines" between parties was not an appropriate way to win elections. Unfortunately, the Republican Party today has decided to choose a candidate who more than blurs the lines, and there is no real difference between the Democrat and the Republican in this race. This is why Doug Hoffman is running on the Conservative Party's ticket.

Republicans and conservatives around the country are sending an important message to the Republican establishment in their outstanding grassroots support for Doug Hoffman: no more politics as usual.

Wow. True to form, she's taking on the whole party. This is going to be really, really good.
DavidNYC :: NY-23: Palin Endorses Conservative Party Candidate Hoffman
Tags: , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
NY-23: Palin Endorses Conservative Party Candidate Hoffman | 97 comments
Will Scoffava voters abandon ship, and if so, for who?
This race needs a poll !!
SSP needs to start commissioning polls
imagine if we all contributed and then voted what to poll.  DKOS commissions them, but they also get more in ad revs too.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
by contribute i mean we all pay a little for the poll.


Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
It's a nice thought
But polls are very expensive, and Daily Kos covers this need quite nicely, I think.
[ Parent ]
Out of curiousity
How much does a Research 2000 poll cost anyways?

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I don't know the answer to that
And Markos isn't willing to discuss it publicly.
[ Parent ]
That's Quite Strange
Since Markos seems willing to talk just about anything. I see him on MSNBC at least once a week discussing some topic that makes the Republicans look bad.
[ Parent ]
I suspect Markos has some sort of deal
based on volume, and may have a contract that forbids him to discuss the price he gets. Otherwise, others may demand the same price.
[ Parent ]
supposedly a new poll will be released tomorrow
[ Parent ]
It might be the R2K poll
per http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

We have Research 2000 polling this race right now. Results are expected either tomorrow or Friday, depending on when they finish getting a valid sample.

[ Parent ]
Yes, R2K will be out tomorrow (eom)

[ Parent ]
tell you what David
when I strike it rich I will SSP's Daddy Warbucks and pay for us to get lots of cool pools and the users can vote on what to poll ^^

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
T-Paw refuses to take a stand on NY-23
http://thehill.com/homenews/ca...

Pawlenty, speaking to reporters after his political action committee held its first fundraiser, said he did not know enough about the candidates to make an endorsement, and that he had not been following the race.

Any way T-Paw can beat Palin for the 2012 nod after that kind of weaseling?

And T-paw just repeated that to
Taegan Goddard's Political Wire
Pawlenty refused to endorse Scozzafava when I just asked him.

Whodathunk a few months ago that this NY-23 special election could be the fuse to set off a GOP explosion.
[ Parent ]
To be honest even with out Hoffman
Dede Scozzafava is an awful campaigner. The botched photo op, calling the cops on the reporter. The extremely poor fundraising. One thing I think that should be noted is if Scozzafava comes in third and Christie looses, maybe overweight candidates don't do well in the northeast.
One thing is for sure
Hoffman is going to be a front runner in the primary for the republican nomination for that district in 2010.
[ Parent ]
Yes he will be
But I predict that the winner of this race, assuming it is not Dede, will be reelected in 2010 and be redistricted out in 2012.
[ Parent ]
She has been that bad
And think, not that long ago many Democrats were really hoping she'd jump parties and run on our side.  We dodged that bullet.  Some people, of all parties and ideologies, just aren't politically able to step up to the next level, and often you don't know it until it's too late.
[ Parent ]
Palin is the gift that keeps on giving
Is it too much to hope for that she forms a national Conservative Party?

Given her inability to play well with others, ignoring the entire primary process would seem right up her alley.

No it is not
but it will happen only if there is some confidence in that path, i.e. A Hoffman win.
[ Parent ]
If she were to actually stump for him...
I feel like it'd stir up enough GOTV to pull off the victory.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
It could probably help Owens too
Nothing short of Bush/ Cheney would fire up Democrats more.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
One thing is for sure
Hoffman CANNOT win this election, because that would only embolden the wingnuts.

I'd rather have Scozzafava win because it would completely emasculate the wingnuts.

Owens winning would be peaches and cream too of course. lol

Hoffman winning could in fact work for us.
It would fan the flames of the current insurgency, which would only harm Republicans' overall prospects.
[ Parent ]
Would it really?
or would it give the media endless "new conservative revolution" stories?

[ Parent ]
No way
Scozzafava is my last choice.  My leaning is Hoffman, then Owens, then Scozzafava.

I want to see the wingnuts have some more confidence to run some more third party candidates in the country.  I want to see Sarah Palin run as a third party candidate in 2012.  And I want to force the GOP between nominating unelectable wingnuts or losing a chunk of support to a third party wingnut.

The only way that the wingnuts will be emasculated is for the Dems to win several elections (even with pluralities) and pass far reaching progressive legislation.  That is how wingnuts got emasculated in the 1930s and 1940s, and that is how the left got emasculated in the Reagan era.

[ Parent ]
If Hoffman wins
then it means wingnuts aren't unelectable.  
[ Parent ]
Well that's what the wingnuts and GOP will think
so they will keep putting up more of them, which will help us in the long run, because they can't win a two way race, and they can't win a three way race unless there are two moderate/liberal candidates.
[ Parent ]
A victory for Hoffman could be the wingnut coup d'etat
I suspect they would take over - and become the R establishment after such a victory. Even Newt would be pushed aside.
[ Parent ]
And that will be the end of the GOP
for at least the next 5 years.  The 2012 GOP candidate will make McGovern's loss seem respectable.  
[ Parent ]
Only if 2012 is a conventional election
I suspect that a wingnut controlled R party would do some at least unorthadox - if not illegal / seditious things that would change how both parties campaign.
[ Parent ]
If they do illegal things
then there needs to be arrests.  If they are making threats at Obama's life or do terrorist acts like McVeigh, for example, then action should be taken.

Other than that, I'd just let them go up in flames.  

What kinds of things do you have in mind?

[ Parent ]
We know how illegality worked with Bush/Cheney
No arrests there either.

Yes, Nixon got caught, but it was in part because he was too greedy.

[ Parent ]
Not a fair comparison
Nixon and Bush/Cheney were in power when they did the illegal things.  They certainly weren't going to go after their own illegal actions.

In this circumstance the opposite side is in power and can go after their illegal acts.

[ Parent ]
They weren't in power in 2000
n/t

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
They were in Florida

[ Parent ]
Good point
n/t

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I'm going to ask again
what kind of things do you think that this new wingnut-dominated GOP will do.
[ Parent ]
Dirty Tricks work both ways
and does not require being in power. For thoughts on what they may try, several novels may provide a model. I'm not up to speed on wingnut musings on the start of the years before the rapture.
[ Parent ]
The wingnuts will be fighting the entire GOP
establishment throughout 2012, they won't be able to have time for their dirty tricks.  
Further, I would expect significant parts of the GOP business establishment to endorse Obama much like they did in 1964 with LBJ if the nuts take over the party.
[ Parent ]
After the current economic meltdown
I don't see endorsements of the business establishment being of much help -

and it plays into wingnut populism against the establishment.

[ Parent ]
It might not help among white conservative
low income voters, but it will make a big move to Obama among Republicans who are professionals.  Obama won 47% of college educated whites in 2008, in this scenario he may win 70% of them.
[ Parent ]
Please provide backup data
Why do you say 70% of college educated whites? On what basis do you come to that conclusion?
[ Parent ]
He just made up a random one
No way in hell Obama wins that high of a percentage of anything save for young people, Hispanics, and blacks.
[ Parent ]
I was hoping that JSmith had some reality behind his number
instead of resorting, once again, to hyperbole.
[ Parent ]
If you are going to make personal attacks
on me, at least do it to my face.
[ Parent ]
If you consider my request for data to be a personal attack
then perhaps you don't belong in politics.

BTW, the easiest way for you to smack me down is provide some actual data to back up your assertion, as I requested.

[ Parent ]
Nice try twisting the facts again
suggesting that I only use hyperbole is certainly a personal attack.
[ Parent ]
So was it hyperbole, or do you have data?
First to respond

Nice try twisting the facts again

Nothing twisted, as you stated that you would support Joe Stalin as a Republican over one of our blue dogs. If that isn't hyperbole, it is worse.

Second, you say

suggesting that I only use hyperbole

is not true, as I said

I was hoping that JSmith had some reality behind his number instead of resorting, once again, to hyperbole.

Third, you say

suggesting that I only use hyperbole is certainly a personal attack.

A suggestion that someone is exaggerating is not an attack on a person, but on the statements made by that person.

An attack on a statement, is by definition, not personal.

[ Parent ]
Let's parse this
"Once again" means that you have done so at least once before - such as when you said you would vote for Hitler or Stalin against Griffith.

I love your work on this site, but as someone who isn't involved in this particular exchange, I am willing to risk your ire by suggesting that you are taking this too personally.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Jews, gays too
n/t

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
People here ask me why I'm rooting
for Hoffman.

This is exactly why I'm rooting for Hoffman, a Hoffman victory will give other wingnuts to run as third party candidates where the situation isn't so favorable, turning a good number of Northern seats to the Democrats.  And if the GOP wants to avoid this, they will have to nominate unelectable wingnuts.

Wouldn't you just love to have the wingnut third party candidates in places like Connecticut, Illinois, Delaware, or Ohio?

And that's not counting the big enchilada, Sarah Palin running third party in 2012.

Not if the wingnuts are winning three way races
you're rooting for Hoffman to win so, what, more third party candidates will run...and win?

[ Parent ]
They won't win
this is a very rare situation that they can win, you basically have a moderate Democrat, a liberal Republican, both who were nominated by party machines, and a wingnut.  You won't see this kind of race in too many places.
[ Parent ]
How many will actually get more than 1-2%?
I'm guessing 2-3 races where a third party makes a noticable difference.  Of course, there'll be a 3rd party candidate who makes a noticable difference against us in VT-Gov and somewhere in MN.  Waves are just that, waves.  The TEA party won't be around for long, the effects of losing what should be a gift will hurt more than this idea of some conservative wave.  And you think Palin might lead the conservative party to skip the primary and get on the ballot?  What are you smoking?
[ Parent ]
Which is why the wingnuts want the R machinery
In the event of some sort of 2012 meltdown, perhaps something manufactured via economic means ala "Debt of Honor," even the nuttiest of wingnuts could be competitive with  President Obama in that year.

(assuming they're not caught of course)

[ Parent ]
I think a very significant number will
I could see many districts giving the wingnut third party 10% of the vote, especially when Mark Kirks and Mike Castles are on the ballot.

And there is another effect, Democratic recruitment.  Democrats may start recruiting good candidates and fund them in many of these areas which seem to have fairly safe GOP incumbents, but have wingnut third party challengers.

Sarah Palin cares only about herself, and if she things that the GOP establishment will block her, or sees that Obama won't be beat by a Republican in 2012, she may well run third party to make herself look like a winner.  

[ Parent ]
We shouldnt need third party candidates
in seats like IL-10 and DE-AL.  We can win those seats in a two way race just fine.

Here is my entire problem with your reasoning for supporting Hoffman, you are neglecting the possibility that the exact type of third party quixotic runs can and will occur WITHOUT Hoffman winning.

Him doing better than DeDe is good enough to show them that they have the power in the GOP.

And we haven't even really discussed how many "squishy moderate" GOPers they may want to primary already as they've proven true conservatives do better in the Republican Party than the squishy moderates.  Man I love that Bennet would be a squishy moderate to primary.

[ Parent ]
In most cases
it would be channeled into the Republican primary, which there wasn't one of in this specific instance.  It will help derail more electable moderates.

I mean, if Hoffman somehow pulls this off I would expect another crack at him next year; he's pretty red for a district like this.

[ Parent ]
If Hoffman somehow were to win
I wonder how iconoclastic he would have to be to keep the base fired up. Sarah Palin's statement seems to encapsulate what this movement (such as it is) is all about - it's almost anti-Republican Party. While she talks about the Republican Party having to "stand for something," she certainly doesn't sound a whole lot like, say, Howard Dean, who talked all the time about the dangers of being "Republican Lite" - but emphatically wanted to reform the Democratic Party from within, not without.

So if Hoffman were to win, could he even caucus with the GOP? Could he accept NRCC support? Maybe, maybe not. Not sure how the teabaggers would react. Maybe they'd cheer the NRCC for supporting the "right" candidate this time.

[ Parent ]
I think he'd rant and rave from within the party
The lunatic fringe certainly does seem to be at least running against the leadership of the GOP.  They want the heads of the Congressional and NRCC and RNC on a platter.  To them, Olympia Snowe is a socialist, John McCain a liberal, Orrin Hatch a squishy moderate, and Tom Colburn a sensible mainstream conservative.

The way I see it is that the GOP leadership doesn't go that far, but they have to placate the hard-core base who does -- and that base has established a beachhead in the party.  From what we know of Hoffman, he might be right at home there.  But could he win 50% in the district in 2010.

Their biggest problem is that they feed off anger -- from Palin to the teabaggers and birthers to El Rushbo.  This type of anger can fire up the base, but doesn't win national elections.

[ Parent ]
I sort of understand the logic
But I think it's a bit too double-trick-behind-the-back-bank-shot-esque for me. I think a Hoffman showing in second place would be more than enough to seriously embolden the wingnuts. A narrow plurality win for Hoffman would look pretty bad for us (though much, much worse for the GOP).

I'd rather win this seat and see Dede in third. That I think is the best outcome.

[ Parent ]
I certainly wouldn't mind a situation
that Hoffman loses very narrowly to Owens, allowing both the Dems and wingnuts to claim victory.  The big losers would be the GOP.
[ Parent ]
Hoffman can claim
A major victory so long as he finishes ahead of Scozzafava. When was the last time a D or R came in third in a federal race? (Note: I'm specifically not counting odd-duck gubernatorial races, ala Jesse Ventura.)
[ Parent ]
Bill Clinton did so in Utah
and George Bush did so in Maine in 1992.

Besides that I can only think of the 1970 NY Senate race.

[ Parent ]
I don't know
That individual states in the electoral college count, but it hardly matters - it's still exceedingly rare. Hence, a second-place finish for a third-party candidate would be a big deal no matter what.
[ Parent ]
Other than Vermont-AL?
New York Senate 1970?
[ Parent ]
Looks like the Democrat
Got about 3% in VT-AL in 1990, so I don't know if that really counts as a real campaign.
[ Parent ]
pollina won 2nd in the gov race in 08
it was only about22% and a bit over symington but it was 2nd.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Not a federal election (eom)

[ Parent ]
Unfortunately, there's LIEberman in '06, eom

[ Parent ]
Ugh
I remember being so excited at the implosion of the GOP nominee there, only to realize that meant all the Republicans would just vote for Lieberman instead.
[ Parent ]
Lieberman is a bit different than
most of the other cases being discussed here; he was an incumbent, already a known quantity.  Hoffman is a whole different kettle; he's doing this basically built up from nothing (which, frankly, I'll be fascinated to see his vote totals compared to polls to see how what is an extremely new campaign structure performs).
[ Parent ]
Point well taken
Just consulted http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W...

Last such case - at least with the criteria you cite - seems to be Ron Packard in '82 in CA.

[ Parent ]
I know there are some people in this thread
rooting for Hoffman, but how many people think he could actually win?
I'd put Hoffman's odds at 2:1
My prediction (will probably change after R2K comes out tomorrow)

Owens      43%
Hoffman    40%
Scozzafava 17%

[ Parent ]
I wouldn't have given him
any chance of being anything other than a third-place spoiler until the last week or so, when the Scozzafava campaign went into serious meltdown mode.  Since then, I can see him coming in second, but I can't see there being enough Republican votes in this district to support both a strong Republican and a weak Republican on the ballot at the same time, particularly since our candidate's a pretty middle-of-the-road sort.
[ Parent ]
I'm just worried about Scozzafava drawing votes
from Democrats, enough to put Owens in second (behind Hoffman).
[ Parent ]
I think her campaign
is guarding against that fairly well.
[ Parent ]
The D base in the district is small
I think I read somewhere it's been pretty rare for Ds to get over 35% - even when the seat was open.
[ Parent ]
Certainly, this is an historically Republican district.
But upstate New York has been bluing rapidly, and the 23rd it's only an R+1 now.  The seat hasn't been open since 1992, which was a whole different world as far as NY and federal politics goes (for example, there were 13 NY Republican Congressmen, instead of 3) - the intervening elections with a secure incumbent like McHugh aren't really a good gauge of anything.

Besides which, add maybe 5-7 points to that 35% and we've got enough to win, in the current scenario.

[ Parent ]
I concur
There's a reason why I'm predicting 43% for Owens :)
[ Parent ]
I actually don't in this district
I think Owens will win.  There just aren't enough wingnuts and conservative Republicans in NY-23, IMO, for Hoffman to win.

My prediction:
Owens: 43%
Hoffman: 30%
Dede: 27%

[ Parent ]
Right
This district has been a bastion of moderate Republicanism, as Vermont used to be. I would be flabbergasted if an extremist, running on the Conservative Party line, actually won the election. I'm tempted to say he has no chance, but that would be excessive.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
The way I currently see this race...
Owens - 80% of Dems, 5% of Republicans, 30% of Independents

Scozzafava - 15% of Dems, 50% of Republicans, 25% of Independents

Hoffman - 5% of Dems, 45% of Republicans, 45% of Independents

That, I think, would result in a final count of something like...

Owens - 35%
Hoffman - 33%
Scozzafava - 32%

Scozzafava's number does seem rather high, but I have a feeling she'll manage to edge out Hoffman among her party. And, there probably will be a slice of Dems who view her favorably, especially with Hoffman calling her a liberal every five seconds.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
I don't see Hoffman getting 45% of independents
and I don't see him getting less than half of the Repubs.
[ Parent ]
Your numbers aren't too inconsistent with the 10/15 Siena poll
and Hoffman led with Indies in that poll
[ Parent ]
Those numbers
I'd buy those numbers as reasonable, if perhaps a bit high. Why? Independents tend to be conservative in relatively conservative areas (upstate's conservative...for NY).

One number that I want to know is: what percentage of the Congressional district's residents does Ms. Dede currently represent in the Assembly? Anyone? She is the only candidate who's actually been elected to public office, after all.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
I think:
Owens - 65% Dems, 10% Repubs, 30% Indies
Scozza - 25% Dems, 50% Repubs, 30% Indies
Hoffman - 10% Dems, 40% Repubs, 40% Indies

Owens ~40%
Scozza ~25%
Hoffman ~35%

[ Parent ]
That doesn't make much sense...
Owens 70%D, 15%R, 35%I
Scozza 20%D, 45%R, 25%I
Hoffman 10%D, 40%R, 40%I
[ Parent ]
My prediction
Owens: 45%
Scozzafava: 32%
Hoffman: 23%

In the end, name recognition and the inherent difficulty in running a third-party campaign will hurt Hoffman and ensure an impressive, but decisive third-place finish.

If this were a primary, Hoffman would wipe the floor with Scozzafava.  But this is a general election.  I have yet to see evidence that people are ready to go third-party in massive numbers, no matter how upset they are with the two-party system.

A lot of Republicans in this district are old-school moderates and they must know that Scozzafava is their only chance of stopping Owens.

Exactly, what organization
does Hoffman have to GOTV and get all his teabaggers to the polls? He's probably all TV ads, and angry teabaggers responding to automated polling.
[ Parent ]
That's what I'm really going to be interested in here.
The main reason that the current two parties are basically always going to be around is the depth of institutional support.  No other parties can match it; even with the Republican machine in disarray, I'll be really interested to see whether Hoffman is able to put together anything remotely capable of delivering on his polling support.
[ Parent ]
The GOP GOTV will do half of Hoffman's work
for him.  The GOP will get out the vote, and many of those voters will simply vote for Hoffman.
[ Parent ]
sort of a hint from DKos
http://www.dailykos.com/storyo...

Daily Kos will be releasing our numbers from the New York 23rd district in the morning. Without divulging too much information, it is fair to presume that Scozzafava's streak of bad news days is unlikely to be stopped on Friday.

Scozzafava in 3rd?

got to agree here
I think a Hoffman close second place is just what I'm hoping for.  With Dede doing awful, conservatives can scream about how they would have won if Hoffman had gotten the nomnation.  

While this may not encourage conservatives to run as third party candidates.....it will encourage more conservative challengers in the primary and embolden conservatives to get behind people like Rubio.  

This is IMO, the moment of truth.  If Conservatives get "the win" they will take over and drive the mderates to the Dems in even bigger numbers.  

The only question then becomes, will the progressives have enough votes to take on the centrists and slight right leaners like Snowe this will cause the Democratic party to take on??  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

My prediction
40% Owens
31% Hoffman
29% Scozzafava
NY-23: Palin Endorses Conservative Party Candidate Hoffman | 97 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Senior Editor: Crisitunity

Contributing Editor: Jeffmd

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

Dave's Redistricting App

Blogroll

Daily Kos Elections
DemConWatch
Five Thirty Eight
Governing
Hotline On Call
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Prop*50
Public Policy Polling
The Thicket
Powered by: SoapBlox