Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (4/28-30, likely voters):
Robin Carnahan (D): 53
Roy Blunt (R): 44Robin Carnahan (D): 54
Sarah Steelman (R): 42
(MoE: ±3.5%)
Democracy Corps has more:
After voters hear profiles of each candidate, Carnahan maintains a 7-point advantage over Steelman and a 9-point advantage over Blunt. After attacks on each candidate, Carnahan remains above 50 percent against both Republicans, and leads Blunt by 7 and Steelman by 6. At this early and uncertain stage, Carnahan starts off the contest with a strong personal and professional standing that puts her in a position to defeat either potential opponent. At the same time, it appears as if Steelman may be the tougher foe with a stronger profile than Blunt and the potential to run a fresh outsider candidacy that Blunt cannot offer.
Carnahan also enjoys a 46-22 favorability rating, and 87% name recognition among likely voters. Blunt, at 82% recognition, isn’t exactly winning any popularity contests with his 33-27 favorability score. Steelman, an ex-state Treasurer, has more room for growth with just 22-13 rating but only 51% name recognition.
Perhaps most interesting is the fact that, despite narrowly supporting John McCain last year, Missouri voters would prefer a Senator who supports Barack Obama’s agenda as opposed to yet another Republican drone seeking to provide false “balance” to DC:
President Obama provides a slight boost to Carnahan, even in a state he failed to carry, with a 56 percent job approval rating (compared to 58 percent nationally) and voters preferring, by a 49 to 40 percent margin, a senator who will mostly support Obama’s agenda to get things done rather than one who will mostly oppose his agenda to provide balance.
While it’s still very early in the game, this poll is further proof that Carnahan is one of the DSCC’s strongest recruits this cycle.
(Hat-tips: conspiracy, Taegan, and Jeremiah)
Creative choice for the subject line, there, James :p
I don’t take too much from this, frankly. RC is an excellent recruit, but for federal office, MO polls tend to swing around like crazy, and then support the Democrat or the Republican by a couple of points.
I think it’s probably the hardest state to win in, because there are no guarantees.
Is Robin Carnahan moderate, liberal, or conservative? Does anyone know?
How Blunt can win this thing. Im sure if it was in the early part of this decade he could. But times have changed. Steelman would seem like the better get for the Republicans. She may be more conservative and more of a ‘firebrand’ but she at least presents herself as an ‘Washington outsider’ and a ‘reformer’. Its races like this that will probably ensure the Dems of keeping their filibuster proof majority even if the GOP has a wave year.