Snap shot in time

and Im moving on.

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by: Andrew @ Wed Sep 16, 2009 at 20:35:35 PM UTC

RAS

Untill October 2010 Ignore all RAS 2010 election .

And RAS Isn't always right In General election polls.They
had Mccain gaining In PA before the 2008 election.

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by: Robbins @ Wed Sep 16, 2009 at 20:43:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

OK

I'm done with Rasmussen.  I accepted these Senate polls as Rasmussen's typical Republican lean.  Then I saw he had Governor Lynch under 50% and only five points ahead of Sununu in New Hampshire.  No f@%#king way.  That was the moment when spiderdem was officially done with Rasmussen.  He is a Republican cheerleader whose mission appears to be to build Republican enthusiasm.  His presidential approval polls are embarrassing outliers.  I just do not believe him any more.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

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by: spiderdem @ Wed Sep 16, 2009 at 21:16:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

His health care numbers

Are even more suspicious. From 51-46 approve to 42-55 disapprove in just three days?

 

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Sep 16, 2009 at 21:30:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

His Obama approval numbers

are ridiculous in that he has consistently found ZERO undecideds. What the hell? Even at the end of Bush's term, there were always 3-9% undecideds. No way is Obama more polarizing than Bush. I am not writing Rasmussen off, but I am much more skeptical of him than I once was...not because he is getting bad numbers for Democrats, mind you (2010 will, at best, be a wash year), but because he seems to be using more sleights of hand than before to shift his numbers in odd ways (if only by a few points) every time.

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by: Politik @ Wed Sep 16, 2009 at 21:57:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

His presidential numbers

Generally favor Republicans by about five points. I've proved it in the past using the 2008 exit poll.  

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Sep 16, 2009 at 22:16:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree...

I stopped paying any attention to Ras pulls about a year ago. They are worthless, about the same reliability has Zogby internet polls.  

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by: Hamtree @ Wed Sep 16, 2009 at 23:06:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agreed

Rassy numbers tend to be very screwy until roughly 2-3 months before the general election. I recall some 2005 polls of theirs that made me snort in derision. They had both Cardin and Mfume trailing Steele, and they had Katherine Harris w/in 8 points of Bill Nelson.

Their daily tracking polls are utter trash, and personally, I don't think such polls are useful outside of a leadup to a presidential election.

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by: corran horn @ Thu Sep 17, 2009 at 14:35:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

At the same time though

(in response to all the anti-Ras polling comments), there is no denying that EVERY poller has shown a lot of tightening in many key races.  We can discount Ras but the trend amongst all polling firms is quite clear.  Ras is just adding a Republican lean to this already downturn in our favor.

Once we start getting some more accomplishments under our belts (when are they going to work on No Child Left Behind, what an absolutely BEAUTIFUL bi-partisan opportunity), we'll see the polling improve.

If this does become a neutral year or even a GOP year, I'll be most pissed about losing MO and NH.  We clearly have the best candidates and national mood would be the only way we lose either seat.  NH is clearly shifting rapidly in our favor and will hopefully reflect the rest of New England at some point soon and I really want to see to two Dem women representing MO in the Senate.

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by: Andrew @ Thu Sep 17, 2009 at 16:43:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

In other news

Noriega is tied with Cornyn and Slattery with Roberts. The guy only seems to poll Repub leaning indies and conservative Dems.

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Sep 16, 2009 at 20:46:05 PM UTC

There were other polls

showing similar results at that time.  It was poll after poll from firm after firm showing a massive shift towards the Dems in June for just about every Dem challenger.  Kleeb was getting close, Rice was improving, Allen was improving.  And then came August and their support drastically fell.

Hell, I'll call it the 08 June Blues.

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by: Andrew @ Thu Sep 17, 2009 at 16:45:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

New Hampshire

Hodes has 81% of Dems, Ayotte 81% of Repubs and leads indies by 14.

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/po...

Turnout in 2008 was D29-R27-I45.

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Sep 16, 2009 at 20:54:18 PM UTC

Other polling outlets have found similar numbers

The only one of these I'm suspicious of is NV-Sen. 5 % undecideds over a year out with completely unknown challengers? Reid's unpopular, but is he that unpopular? Ayotte's lead is only a few points more than other polling firms, and  no one has tested CO Sen with Norton.  

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by: GOPVOTER @ Wed Sep 16, 2009 at 21:38:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Widest Ayotte lead by quite a margin

Double the next best.  

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Sep 16, 2009 at 21:42:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Keep in mind

Its been awhile too.  

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by: GOPVOTER @ Wed Sep 16, 2009 at 22:56:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes Reid is that unpopular

Every Democrat whom I have spoken with dislikes Reid (of course, not in Nevada), they think he is too soft and ineffective as a majority leader.  I'm sure that Repubs aren't too enthusiastic about him either.

Now I think many Dems may hold their nose and back him in the end.  But many may not.  Many Democrats think that strategically, it may be better to get rid of Reid so we can get a better majority leader.  Since there is almost no way that Reid can be overthrown in the Democratic caucus, and he has oodles of money to defend against any primary challenge, the only way may be to have a Repub defeat him.

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by: JSmith @ Thu Sep 17, 2009 at 01:23:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm leaning this way.

Many Democrats think that strategically, it may be better to get rid of Reid so we can get a better majority leader.

Of course, I may just be rationalizing a silver-lining benefit to his impending defeat.

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by: homerun @ Thu Sep 17, 2009 at 01:32:51 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That argument makes no sense

If Democrats don't like him he is vulnerable to a primary challenge, regardless of his money.

Reid is not at Patterson levels so no one has grown the backbone to make the obvious challenge, but some polls showing him 20 points behind the Rep candidates and losing to a generic D in the primary should lead to someone taking a shot and probably beating him.  On the other hand, if he stays 10 or less points behind he may not get the primary challenge he should because Dems are such freaking cowards.

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by: tommypaine @ Thu Sep 17, 2009 at 10:44:28 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't think you understand ...

Reid "owns" the Nevada Democratic Party ... the same way Daley "owns" Chicago ... so if someone were to primary Reid ... it would have to be a Ned Lamont type ... someone who would spend lots of his/her own money

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by: Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle @ Thu Sep 17, 2009 at 13:16:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well I want his ownership

of both the Nevada Democratic Party as well as the Democratic caucus in the Senate to come to an end.  This guy is completely worthless, and should have been removed as majority leader a long while ago, and could have been except that he could play the trump card that it was under his watch that the Democrats gained 15 Senate seats.

If the only to get rid of Reid as Senate majority leader is to elect the Repub, then that's what needs to be done.  

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by: JSmith @ Thu Sep 17, 2009 at 21:02:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

on the plus side

a new Quinnipac poll of OH-Sen has good numbers for the good guys

Fisher over Portman by 11 and Brunner by 5

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x132...

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by: clemensol @ Wed Sep 16, 2009 at 21:44:36 PM UTC

NH

I've been saying for a while Hodes is a bad candidate and that race is probably gone.  Republicans have someone who people THINK is moderate and Democrats have nominated someone who is eh at fundraising and has zero charisma.

29/D/Male/NY-01

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by: Tekzilla @ Thu Sep 17, 2009 at 00:12:48 AM UTC

This is the first I've seen you say this

who should the Dems have nominated?  

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by: DTOzone @ Thu Sep 17, 2009 at 00:31:08 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah

And Hodes is very liberal for a middle-of-the-road state like NH.  

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by: GOPVOTER @ Thu Sep 17, 2009 at 00:46:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hodes really isn't anymore liberal

than Shaheen.  

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by: DTOzone @ Thu Sep 17, 2009 at 06:27:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Way too early to be writing him off

But he has to improve his fundraising certainly.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Sep 17, 2009 at 01:09:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

This is the first poll to show him behind by more then 5.

Its an outlier. other then that came populus poll with the f'ed up samples.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

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by: D in FL @ Thu Sep 17, 2009 at 01:46:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Maybe, maybe not

Depends. Kelly Ayotte has never had to fundraise before. She may suck at it too. Sure, its better to out fund your opponent by alot, but is she can't raise money either, its not as urgent

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by: GOPVOTER @ Thu Sep 17, 2009 at 02:13:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Paul Hodes

Represents have the state.  He outpreformed Obama and got a little over 56 percent of the vote.  Obama also won the other district.  I highly doubt Hodes will lose District 2.  So that means the R will have to win district 1 which also doesn't seem very likely considering McCain couldn't do it.  Lynch is uber popular and will be running for reelection.  I'm sure the democrats will be up there campaigning for hodes.  Bill and Obama joint campaign stop?  Should do the trick.

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by: admnok @ Thu Sep 17, 2009 at 04:08:00 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Exactly

Hodes will have John Lynch at the top of the ticket, and even if he comes off the absurdly-high 75% of the vote, 60-65% is still plenty of potential coat-tail for Hodes. That, and Carol Shea-Porter is probably fine for re-election in NH-1, and a Shea-Porter voter is equally likely to be a Hodes voter for Senate.  

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by: mkpowers @ Thu Sep 17, 2009 at 15:20:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]