I'm surprised by these numbers

I thought that Hodes would have a bigger lead over Bass, and I thought he would actually lead Ayotte.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Thu Jul 16, 2009 at 23:58:27 PM UTC

Thought Hodes would be more well known

In any case, I just don't see how Republicans could possibly hold this seat against a generally popular guy like Hodes.  I hope his fundraising kicks up, but I'm not too worried yet.

Ayotte has never been elected to anything.

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by: skaje @ Fri Jul 17, 2009 at 00:34:38 AM UTC

Republicans will spend a lot of money on this race

and their ads will be very tone-deaf because they think what works in red states will work in NH.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

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by: duffman @ Fri Jul 17, 2009 at 01:34:42 AM UTC

NH

If It's Ayotte we lose, plain and simple.

29/D/Male/NY-01

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by: Tekzilla @ Fri Jul 17, 2009 at 04:09:00 AM UTC

yup

and we better hope the GOP doesn't run Tedisco in New York's 20th district.  Cause he's a longtime state representative, with a base in the most populous part of the district.  We'd have no chance running a political newbie against him, especially in an area that leans Republican historically.

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by: skaje @ Fri Jul 17, 2009 at 04:24:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Is it possible to bet against Tekzilla?

I'd like to get some of that action.

(Hodes ain't a sure thing, but after a poll showing a dead heat to say we'll lose "plain and simple" is silly.)

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by: tommypaine @ Fri Jul 17, 2009 at 06:38:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Troll?

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

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by: ehstronghold @ Fri Jul 17, 2009 at 06:09:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Only a very concerned Democrat, I'm sure

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by: skaje @ Fri Jul 17, 2009 at 09:19:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't think we should disocunt the possibility

that Tekzilla is Kelly Ayotte.  I've never seen them both in the same room.

I like Hodes by 5-8% here.  I'm a little surprised that Ayotte resigning after promising to stay hasn't resonated more in this small state, at least in this poll.  Her explanation was almost as lame as Palin's - "Gee, when I promised to stay I didn't realize there would be such a golden opportunity to advance my career."

The fact that she seems to be figuring out what her positions are on federal issues right now also doesn't bode well for her against a boring but solid on the issues Hodes.  Seems like there is potential for some "In what respect Charlie?" moments for Ayotte as a newbie.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

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by: spiderdem @ Fri Jul 17, 2009 at 11:18:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

NH

I assure you I am A very liberal albiet concerned Democrat.

Too many people on this site and others think 2010 will be a breeze and seats like this will be easily won.  I happen to disagree.  Hodes hasn't raised a lot of money, is a pretty bland candidate and will be running in likely a neutral year.

29/D/Male/NY-01

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by: Tekzilla @ Fri Jul 17, 2009 at 16:20:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

There's a difference between not thinking this will be a breeze

And presuming matter-of-factly that we're going to lose this race the way you've been. I think we need to be a bit less cocky about our chances in New Hampshire, but that doesn't mean being absolutely pessimistic about our chances either.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

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by: DGM @ Fri Jul 17, 2009 at 16:25:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well then fine

Where will Democrats win in 2010 then? If not Hodes, who wins where? Is even Cao unstoppable deep in the D+25 NO district?

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Fri Jul 17, 2009 at 17:26:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Gov. Lynch

If he had entered the race, it would have been a no-brainer but Hodes will have to do. As Rumsfeld would say, you go to war with the candidate you have.  

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by: panhandler @ Fri Jul 17, 2009 at 17:34:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

We dodged a bullet.

Lynch wouldn't have been much better than Ayotte.

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by: Kanamit @ Sat Jul 18, 2009 at 16:58:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Lynch is a Democrat

the only way we dodged a bullet is that he's a bit too moderate and doesnt make any stands.  Whatever gets him a 70% approval rating.

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by: Andrew @ Sat Jul 18, 2009 at 17:29:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

plain and simple

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by: homerun @ Fri Jul 17, 2009 at 20:48:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hodes will likely win

I think that Ayotte has hit her ceiling and most of the undecideds will break for Hodes. John Lynch is not too pleased at all with Ayotte and if he runs for governor again his landslide victory (70%+ of the vote) will put Hodes over the top. In addition, Ayotte will have trouble fundraising since no one has even heard of her. The polling in the this race will be similar to that of the Cardin/Steele race or the Menendez/Kean race. However, Obama will try to help Hodes win since Hodes was an early supporter of Obama back in the NH primary. Nothing to worry about here.

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by: jmartin4s @ Fri Jul 17, 2009 at 05:15:20 AM UTC

Obama at 62% favorable in this poll

Kinda supports that. Tough for any Repub here.

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by: conspiracy @ Fri Jul 17, 2009 at 22:47:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Why can't we ever find middle ground between

"Hodes will win" and "we're doomed". Certainly a tie game 16 months out isn't that great, but we're still 16 months out and the campaign hasn't begun.

That said, Hodes needs to step up his fundraising now. This will be at least a $5-7 million race, and he's only at $1 million.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Fri Jul 17, 2009 at 11:24:19 AM UTC

I concur

Last time I checked Ayotte has never been elected to a statewide position.  At the same time time, Hodes has been elected twice by half of the state, so I like his odds of winning this race.

Anyway, I think this poll may have identified a certain "dead cat bounce".  The Republicans have been knocked down in the 2006 and 2008 elections nationwide (and even to a stronger extent in NH).  With the economy in recession, I wonder if the voters in NH are starting to have voter's remorse.  Also, the unknown is how the economy will be a year from now.  If we show some noticable improvements, I think the Dems will be shown in a better light.  The 2010 election may be a lot like 1982, where the Dems picked back 25+ seats after losing 45+ seats in 1978 and 1980.  At the same time, the Dems in 1982 stayed at the same couldn't pick up any seats (net) in the Senate because they had to defend more seats.  The big similarity between 1982 and 2010 could be the economy.  The economy back then was in the tank, probably close to how the economy has tanked in the last year and a half.

I expect a close race in NH.  Hodes is a solid candidate, and he should be able to rally the Democratic base to a victory in 2010.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Fri Jul 17, 2009 at 13:05:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The Dems did have a "bounce" in the Senate in 1986, thanks to the freshmen elected in 1980. eom

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

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by: californianintexas @ Fri Jul 17, 2009 at 14:04:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

1982 Deja Vu ....

It is looking more and more like that every day.  I hope Obama, Pelosi, Reid realize that before it is too late.

 

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by: vicupstate @ Mon Jul 20, 2009 at 12:42:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If the pattern follows to 1984/2012

I don't think we will be too upset.

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Jul 20, 2009 at 15:26:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Very true

16 months is a very long time.

As for the fundraising, I'm guessing it was because Hodes had no opponent until now.

The reason, I suspect, Hodes and Ayette are tied is because: 1) Ayette is polling at the level of a generic R, and 2) Hodes hasn't had much exposure in NH-1, which is more Republican than NH-2 thanks to Manchester.

As for Tekzilla, I think people are just getting fed up with his constant pessimism. I think he might be BillNolan under a new name.  

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by: corran horn @ Mon Jul 20, 2009 at 13:30:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]