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CO-Sen: Bennet Numbers Not Strong, But Little Changed from April

by: DavidNYC

Tue Aug 18, 2009 at 10:39 PM EDT


Public Policy Polling (PDF) (registered voters, 8/14-16, 4/17-19 in parens):

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 39 (42)
Bob Beauprez (R): 42 (43)
Undecided: 19 (16)

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 38 (39)
Ryan Frazier (R): 33 (35)
Undecided: 30 (26)

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 39 (40)
Ken Buck (R): 35 (34)
Undecided: 26 (26)
(MoE: ±3.2%)

Tom Jensen:

Michael Bennet's approval rating is just as bad as it was when we polled Colorado in April but voters in the state don't like any of his possible Republican opponents either, leaving this Senate contest pretty wide open.

38% of voters in the state disapprove of Bennet's job performance so far with 31% approving. Those numbers are roughly equal to our previous survey which found the numbers at 41% disapproval to 34% approval. There are two primary reasons for Bennet's net negative ratings. The first is that Republicans disapprove (62%) of him more than Democrats approve of him (57%). The second is that he's getting unfavorable reviews from independents, 36% of whom disapprove of him compared to 29% approving. ...

Potential Republican opponents Bob Beauprez, Ryan Frazier, and Ken Buck all get overall negative reviews from voters in the state as well. 40% have an unfavorable opinion of Beauprez to 30% with a positive one. For Frazier it's 19% negative and 11% favorable and for Buck the numbers are 18% unfavorable and 17% favorable.

Though he calls the race "wide open," Jensen also thinks Bennet would only lose to Beauprez in a 1994-style meltdown. Still, it's depressing to even be thinking in those terms, and it's dispiriting to see Bennet locked in at about 40% regardless of his opponent. (In case you were wondering, Frazier is an Aurora City Councilman and Buck is the Weld County District Attorney. Both jurisdictions are in the quarter-million range in terms of population.)

PPP will have more Colorado numbers over the course of the week, including GOP primary numbers for both the Senate and gubernatorial races, as well as Obama approvals.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Dem.

RaceTracker Wiki: CO-Sen

DavidNYC :: CO-Sen: Bennet Numbers Not Strong, But Little Changed from April
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And Ritter couldn't pick Hickenlooper or Salazar because...
Although, really, even if things stay bad, I can't quite wrap my mind around the idea of Beauprez winning.

To Bennet's credit, I read this long profile about his tenure, and if nothing else, he seems pretty resourceful and like someone who knows how to recognize that his current strategy isn't working. He might get swept away in the tide if 2010 is really ugly, but otherwise, I'm sure he has a lot fight left in him.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


The Answer
Is because Ritter's ego. Something about the likely candidates ticked him off for whatever reason, so he had to have someone appointed that would be dependent on him for political support.

[ Parent ]
I'm actually really pleased
This could've been much much worse given the plunge of Obama since April.  Bennet is in decent shape given how unknown he is.  But, as Nico points out, it doesn't take away from the fact that this appointment was an epic fail.

Ritter's biggest problem when picking a senator
should have been an abundance of riches. DeGette, Perlmutter, Hickenlooper, John Salazar, and Andrew Romanoff all would have loved to be a senator, but Ritter had to go pick some guy who was, and still largely is, a complete unknown.

The biggest problem was not that
it was that the Colorado Democrats couldn't find a candidate for Governor in 2006 better than Bill Ritter.


[ Parent ]
From what ive heard
Hickenlooper and John Salazar werent interested. Maybe the other names were, though.  

[ Parent ]
Hickenlooper was VERY interested.
At the end it was Hickenlooper, Romanoff, and, um, crap I forget.  Both of whom would have been better candidates than Bennet.  Who seems like a nice guy, mind you, but he's a little bit too prep school to be a natural fit for the Colorado electorate.  He'd have been fine if he'd have worked his way up the political food chain, but to just fall into a Senate seat like that is a little much.

Or maybe that's just me talking, I dunno.

Bennet's got to be the luckiest man this cycle though.  None of his opponents so far have even the minimal positive reputation it would take to beat him.  Penry could have been a real threat, Romanoff could declare on the filing date and still beat him, Tancredo or Coffman could have made a half-decent race out of it, and maybe even won if 2010 is a bad year for us.  But none of the above are even whispered about right now.  Strange.  Not even Hickenlooper seems to be thinking of a primary.  

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08


[ Parent ]
I disagree that Tancredo would have had a shot
He is just way too far right and controversial. Bennet would have to be the western version of DeLay or Jefferson for him to win, IMO. Suburban moderates would go to Bennet in droves and Tancredo wouldnt get 5% of the Latino vote.

[ Parent ]
DeGette
I can understand why DeGette wasnt picked. As she has the double stain of being a 'Denver liberal' and having a consistently 'F' NRA rating. Sure Udall was a 'Boulder liberal' but I dont think was nearly as bad on gun control. Although DeGette always could have pulled a reverse Gillibrand and became pro-gun rights.

[ Parent ]
Degette would have a had a double adavantage
over Salazaar. Salazaar was from a competitive district which could have been at risk in a special election. On the other hand DeGette was not only electible but in a special election, her district would be safe.

[ Parent ]
Crap appointment yields crap numbers
And because the party is so screwed up Hickenlooper won't primary him.

Nothing more doofusy than Democrats self-destructing.

Still though, people know Bob Beauprez, he isn't going to be the one able to trend upwards.


I never understood what
appeal Michael Bennet brought to the table that a governor would want to appoint him. Gillibrand and Kaufman had at least something to offer. Gillibrand was very electable, was Chuck Schumer's protege, considered to be an up and coming star in NY politics, and gave representative to upstate New York. Ted Kaufman was Joe Biden's chief of staff and would continue to uphold Biden's views and intentions till 2010. When it comes to Michael, I don't see anything. I have always said that if someone should primary challenge him it should be Angie Paccione.

CO
Agree with the sentiment here of WTF was Ritter smoking.  Romanoff would have been much better.

29/D/Male/NY-01

Ryan Frazier
Ryan Frazier seems to be an attractive candidate and polls remarkably quite close to Bennet but people don't know him -- undecideds are 30% when Frazier is matched against Bennet.

He needs to raise a lot more money. However, I suspect the GOP party bigwigs are pushing for Beauprez (with some justification given polling results) and will direct party donors to Beauprez in the primary.


Numbers Like These
Makes me wish Ken Salazar was still running for reelection. I mean, Obama can pick anyone for Interior Secretary, so why a Senator with rural appeal who's also a Democrat? (Okay, last point is self explanatory). Still, there were plenty of Democrats from Western states that could have served in that post.

Now it seems, by picking Salazar, Obama accidentally gave the GOP a sliver of hope in picking up a Senate seat. Bennett's behind Bob Beauprez, for God's sakes! Perhaps someone should primary Bennett, like Romanov or Hickenlooper, because they seem to be better candidates.


Looks worse than it is
Similar to Gillibrand. More than a third of voters still don't know enough about him to form an opinion. And his fundraising is good so when the time comes he can afford to paint a positive portrait of himself. More people already know Beauprez from 2006 and still don't like him.

[ Parent ]
Salazar
was hardly a reliable vote to further President Obama's progressive agenda. He serves the president much better as Secretary of the Interior. I think it was a brilliant choice.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]

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