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CO-Sen, CO-Gov: Tight Races (and Romanoff Makes it Official)

by: James L.

Fri Sep 11, 2009 at 12:00 AM EDT


Rasmussen (9/9, likely voters):

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 43
Ken Buck (R): 37
Other: 7
Undecided: 13

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 39
Ryan Frazier (R): 40
Other: 7
Undecided: 14
(MoE: ±4.5%)

Oddly, Rasmussen chose not to test the two latest entrants in this race -- Democrat Andrew Romanoff, who launched his exploratory committee earlier today, and former GOP Lt. Gov. Jane Norton. If you wanna make sure that your polls gain a lot of ink in the media, it's usually a good idea to include the names who are getting the most buzz. But, that's enough Rasmussen criticism for a day...

These numbers are somewhat different than PPP's findings from August. (In that poll, Bennet lead Frazier by 38-33 and Buck by 39-35.) In any case, I can't imagine that Frazier, an Aurora city councilor, is in a stronger position than Buck. At this point, they're still just Two Dudes.

CO-Gov:

Bill Ritter (D-inc): 39
Scott McInnis (R): 44
Other: 7
Undecided: 10

Bill Ritter (D-inc): 41
Josh Penry (R): 39
Other: 7
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±4.5%)

Unlike the Senate poll, this snapshot is pretty close to PPP's August poll. Pretty disturbing stuff.

RaceTracker Wiki: CO-Sen | CO-Gov

(H/T: GOPVoter)

James L. :: CO-Sen, CO-Gov: Tight Races (and Romanoff Makes it Official)
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Not that disturbing...
Ritters suffering the fate of all governors; which will improve by this time next year to do economic limbo instead of free fall. Plus I'm betting Romanoff has a good chance to beat Ritter in the primary, avoiding all the negatives of incumbency. Ritters Labour decisions, hasn't pleased the left-wing, giving Romanoff more of a base.
Bennet could be considered somewhat of a non-incumbent because he was appointed; but that's still not nice numbers

Romanoff is running against Bennet not Ritter


[ Parent ]
Bennett Needs Romanov's Challenge
All the predecessors who sat in his Senate seat have gone through baptism by fire when it comes to campaigns. Gary Hart beat an incumbent GOP Senator then survived the Reagan 1980 landslide to serve two terms, Tim Wirth and Ben Nighthorse Campbell had both served in the House. In Campbell's case, he was elected both as a Democrat and Republican before retiring. Ken Salazar was elected statewide twice as Colorado's AG before winning his first Senate term.

I'm very glad Romanoff is looking into the primary challenge. Bennett, with all due respect, was in a completely different profession before becoming a politician, and therefore had absolutely zero political skills to draw upon. If the DSCC are upset that Romanoff is challenging Bennett, then tough. He's going to need this experience if he's going to fend of Republican challengers in the general.


Agreed
This will make Bennet stronger not weaker. Especially since the NRSC has placed a big fat target on his head, he's going to need all the experience at campaigning he'll get.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Agree also
Just keep it civil guys. No Westly-Angelides nonsense.

[ Parent ]
It won't make Bennet stronger
if he loses - which would be fine with me.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
You can make an analogy to sports, perhaps
That its hard to play well in the big games if you just dont have much experience playing. And in Bennet's case it might be hard for him to campaign statewide, in a general, if he never has before.  

[ Parent ]
Romanoff, not Romanov
Last I checked, Andrew was not a member of the not-so-illustrious Russian royal family.

Agree with your point, though.


[ Parent ]
Thanks
I realized that as I was typing my main message, but I guess I forgot to correct it in the title.

[ Parent ]
Shining Example of Why Government Appointments
are terrible.  Does anyone else notice that of the 4 appointed replacements, 3 (CO, IL, and possibly DE) could be in serious danger come 2010?  Illinois' was a corruption-ridden disaster, Delaware was nepotism at its worst, and Ritter's appointment of Bennet was completely nonsensical.  Had he appointed Romanoff or Hickenlooper - the two politicos that Coloradoans had said they most wanted to have in the Senate - we would not only have had a strong incumbent for the Senate, but would himself have had a boost on Election Day by sharing the ballot with a fellow popular Democrat.  Now, Bennet is starting from scratch and Ritter is completely standing on his own.  I don't care how the national climate is, the GOP is offering up third-tier competition that ought to be annihilated.  

How is the Deleware situation nepotism?
Beau Biden was not appointed to the Senate period, much less by a family member.  And should he run for and win his father's old seat, then that, too, would not constitute nepotism.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Nepotism was the wrong word
But the then-outgoing (and highly unpopular) Gov. Ruth Ann Minner essentially named a placeholder so Beau can have the nomination all to himself come 2010.  There were plenty of qualified Democrats who could have had that seat, but because Beau's dad is the Veep they had to ensure there would be no competition foo baby Biden.  The ONLY reason why Beau didn't get appointed outright was because of his obligation to go to Iraq - if that weren't in the way he'd be a sitting US Senator right now.  The entire move reeks of family ties shoving out any competition - and it may hurt us come 2010 if Castle runs, as Beau is a weak candidate who won by only 8 points in his lone electoral victory against a nobody despite Joe pulling out all the stops to help him.  so yeah, it's technically not nepotism but it is favoritism and favoring legacy over quality.

[ Parent ]
If she had named someone stronger
Who then ran people would complain a la Gillibrand. This way anybody is entitled to run and Beau has to fight for it himself. Castle, if he runs, would be strong versus anybody but the VP and Carper.

[ Parent ]
DE and NY are not the same
Folks complained in NY because Gillibrand rubbed a lot of House colleagues the wrong way and she leap-frogged a lot of people who were preparing to run for Hillary's seat (in the expectance she would win the Presidency).  

Delaware is all small-state politics.  No one is really "entitled to run" because the implicit message with the Kaufman appointment is anyone who challenges Beau will get shoved out.  The state rarely has competitive primaries, even for local races (I used to do direct mail out there and saw it first-hand).  Hell, in the last cycle Jack Markell barely beat out John Carney for the gubernatorial nod because the state party paid for ads against him.  Yes, a state party used its funds in a primary to attack another Democrat and no one thought it was wrong to do so.  People were pissed at Markell because he went "out of turn" and challenged the officially endorsed candidate.  They also pushed out most of the local donors from giving to him - he had to use a national network to raise the money to win.  That's how Delaware works.  Unless you're a progidous fundraiser like Markell you will get shut out.

And don't get me started on Beau.  His entire political career has been gifted to him, from his Justice Department gig to his AG run in 2006.  Most Delawareans believe he wouldn't be anywhere without papa Joe, and there are plenty of Dems that would stick it to Castle in a Senate election because they wouldn't carry that kind of baggage.


[ Parent ]
Sad thing is
Beau Biden, at least judging by his introduction speech at the DNC Convention, seems pretty impressive. He really doesnt need all the 'extra help' (well, he wouldnt even be AG or possibly running for Sen., in the first place, if his last name werent Biden but thats beside the point). Should he be elected to the Sen. hed probably do quite a fine job. In a way I cant entirely blame Joe Biden as a father should do alot to help his son. But sometimes you have to also do whats fair (for example, if youre a coach and your son is on your team you cant give him more playing time just because hes your son). And this is quite different from Joe Biden's run for the Sen. in the early 70s when he was just some city councilman. Maybe he got the establishment backing during the primary, i really dont know, but I would assume nobody was knocking heads to get him the slot. As he wasnt 'popular' or a 'big dog' by any means.

[ Parent ]
CO
I really wish Romanoff would primary Ritter who will likely be much more at risk.

29/D/Male/NY-01


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